Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

[cavelloman]

E/W Bets


2.00 Uttoxeter

Backstage 2 pts E/W @5/2 with SportingBet

The shorter distnce of todays race race for BacKstage + the firm going which might just bring an improve performance.

2.30 Uttoxeter

Four Acers 3 pts E//W @13/8 with SportingBet

Jump a bit large LTO and may improve with this being a 2nd hirdle race on the trot after several chase races.


1 pt E/W Doubles with Sportingbet


Outlay = 12 pts

[cavelloman]

Exchange Bet

3.00 Uttoxeter

Nikola 3 pts place only @1.63 (3 Places)

In a race with question marks over several of the runners this consistent chaser should place in the first 3. Only concern is the time of year(IMO)

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bets


2.00 Uttoxeter

Backstage 2 pts E/W @5/2 with SportingBet

The shorter distnce of todays race race for BacKstage + the firm going which might just bring an improve performance.

2.30 Uttoxeter

Four Acers 3 pts E//W @13/8 with SportingBet

Jump a bit large LTO and may improve with this being a 2nd hirdle race on the trot after several chase races.


1 pt E/W Doubles with Sportingbet


Outlay = 12 pts

Profit on Bet = 1.84 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Exchange Bet

3.00 Uttoxeter

Nikola 3 pts place only @1.63 (3 Places)

In a race with question marks over several of the runners this consistent chaser should place in the first 3. Only concern is the time of year(IMO)

Placed(won) profit on Bet = +1.89 pts.

1.8 actually came available late on.

[cavelloman]

Exchange + Other Bets

Outlay to Date = 18 pts Return to Date = 31.49 pts Profit to Date = 13.49 pts


E/W Bets

Outlay to Date = 46 pts Return to Date = 36.81 pts Loss to Date = --9.19 pts

Combined Yield = +6.7%

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

6.05 Towcester

Sister Agnes 2 pts E/W @12/1 BetDirect(BOG)
Relative Hero 1 pt E/W @5/1 Corals
Earcomesthedream 1pt E/W @7/1 Bet365(BOG)

Mainly based on Market Comparsion but Sister Agnes looks overpriced based on her best form + local trainer can do well here

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

6.05 Towcester

Sister Agnes 2 pts E/W @12/1 BetDirect(BOG)
Relative Hero 1 pt E/W @5/1 Corals
Earcomesthedream 1pt E/W @7/1 Bet365(BOG)

Mainly based on Market Comparsion but Sister Agnes looks overpriced based on her best form + local trainer can do well here

Profit on Bet = 3 pts

Sister Agnes jumping was very poor

[cavelloman]

Small Exchange Bet

Back Nine 1/2 pts E/W (3 places)

Hard to see this horse rated at 118 not placing

Garden Feature 1/2 pt E/W(3 places)


A small stake but these 2 represent form on conventional racecourse and may be too good for these point to point types

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Small Exchange Bet

Back Nine 1/2 pts E/W (3 places)

Hard to see this horse rated at 118 not placing

Garden Feature 1/2 pt E/W(3 places)


A small stake but these 2 represent form on conventional racecourse and may be too good for these point to point types

Profit on Bet = 1.34 pts

[cavelloman]

Exchange + Other Bets

Outlay to Date = 20 pts Return to Date = 34.83 pts Profit to Date = 14.83 pts


E/W Bets

Outlay to Date = 54 pts Return to Date = 47.81 pts Loss to Date = - 6.19 pts

Combined Yield = +11.7%

[cavelloman]

E/W BETS

6.10 Newton A

4 pts E/W Amargayle @7/4 with Bet365(BOG)
2 pts E/W Trinity Rose @100/30 with William Hill
1.5 pts E/W Party Palace @12/1 with Bet365(BOG)

Based on some form and some market comparsions.

Outlay = 15 pts

[cavelloman]

Add now

Caoba 3 pts E/W @2/1 Bet365(BOG)

Strange figures for E/W value but I must go with my figures

[cavelloman]

Profit obtained.

21 pts Outlay

Caobra (2/1) Won ...outlay 6 pts...Returned 13.2 pts
Amargayle (15/8) Placed... Outlay 8 pts Returned 5.5 pts
Party Palace (12/1) Placed....Outlay 3 pts Returned 5.10 pts
Trinity Rose (4/1).... Outlay 4 pts Retuned 0 pts

Total Return = 23.80 pts

Profit = 2.8 pts Every little bit helps

[cavelloman]

E/W BET

6.40 Perth

Buffy 3 pts E/W @4/1 with Ladbrokes

Winner of this race last year act on fast going and obviously this course. Had a run recently and hopefully may have been targeted at this race Also value on market comparsions

HORSE	BF PL	BF WIN	BOOK ODDS	% Edge
BUFFY	5.00	1.47	5.00	22.45%

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Knocklayde Rose 1 pt E/w @10/1 with Bet365(BOG)

Trainers won this event before and in a pretty poor event may just be good enough to at least get a place. Odds are a bit better on the exchanges at the moment to small stakes.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BET

6.40 Perth

Buffy 3 pts E/W @4/1 with Ladbrokes

Winner of this race last year act on fast going and obviously this course. Had a run recently and hopefully may have been targeted at this race Also value on market comparsions

Placed -0.6 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Knocklayde Rose 1 pt E/w @10/1 with Bet365(BOG)

Trainers won this event before and in a pretty poor event may just be good enough to at least get a place. Odds are a bit better on the exchanges at the moment to small stakes.

Unplaced -2 pts

[cavelloman]

BTW

Personallly I would have normally traded for a profit straightaway after an odds-on shot falls at the first But Betfair was suspended for the entire race And of course in tthose circumstances it's sod's law

[cavelloman]

Single Bets

8.40 Perth

Ormello 1 pt win @13/2 with William Hill +3 pts place @2.38 @paddy Power

This represent a drop in class here for this 2 mile specialist. Been placed in races of 0-125 and 0-130 plus higher value races.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Single Bets

8.40 Perth

Ormello 1 pt win @13/2 with William Hill +3 pts place @2.38 @paddy Power

This represent a drop in class here for this 2 mile specialist. Been placed in races of 0-125 and 0-130 plus higher value races.

Easy... class more important then weight

Profit on Bet = 10.6 pts