Cavelloman's E/W Non-Handicap Value + Exchange Bets Summer 2008

[cavelloman]

This summer from May I will again be posting my E/W value bets for non-handicap races on this thread. As usual they will be a combination of form analysis and markets comparsion methods.

Also this summer I will include bets based on exchange prices where there are big overprices IMO but do not represent great value with conventional bookmakers. In addition I will advise E/Ws at Betfair SP if I believe this offers more value and may even advise place only on occasions. These may even include a rare bet in an handicap

Results therefore will be recorded in 2 sections.

Staking will be in my usual range up to 10 pts. But the biggest bet I've advised in the last year is only 6 pts E/W (which won @5/2). Most bets will fall between 1pt E/W to 4 pts E/W and E/W doubles will often involve smaller stakes.


1, Summer E/W Value Bets
2. Summer Exchange Bets

O.K will be back next month for a profitable summer

[Sousa]

Looking forward for it Cavelloman. Good luck mate.

[cavelloman]

2.35 Thirsk.

Wells Lyrical 1 pt E/W @6/1 with BetFred

Of the main candidates for this race he has the most endurance packed pedigree with dosage figures od 0.85(DI) and -0.04.(CD) Obviously his ability may not be sufficient to win this but should at least do better over todays trip. Also with the influence of Sadler's Wells the going should also be to his liking. Modest stakes due to the number of runners with potential to improve.

[cavelloman]

Exchange Bet.

Ridge Dance 2 pts win @3.40 with BetFair

Finished strongly last season in races over 8 furlongs and could well have won the Royal Lodge Stakes with a bit of luck in running. A line via several of the field that day gives him a resonable chance of beating the favourite.If we ignore his terrible performance in the Racing Post race at Doncaster then the odds on offer look a bit too long and should be about 2.9 to 3 (IMO). Even with comm of 5% we are getting 3.23 which justabout sanctions a bet.

[cavelloman]

Exchange Bet

8.00 Hexham

Mr Barnacle 3 pts win @2.02 with BetChronicle*

In what looks to be a 2 horse race appears to be the one to back. When examining the form in detail, it is pretty clear that Mr Barnacle beaten a number of horses with either good form at that time or who run well in subsequent races. The same can't be said for Innominate who appears to have rarely finished in front of a decent hurdler. IMO my selection should be c1.85 so the odds here represent a little value IMO.


*Betchronicle prices are closely relate to Betdaq and for the purposes of this thread I considered it to be an exchange.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

2.35 Thirsk.

Wells Lyrical 1 pt E/W @6/1 with BetFred

Of the main candidates for this race he has the most endurance packed pedigree with dosage figures od 0.85(DI) and -0.04.(CD) Obviously his ability may not be sufficient to win this but should at least do better over todays trip. Also with the influence of Sadler's Wells the going should also be to his liking. Modest stakes due to the number of runners with potential to improve.

3rd = +0.2 pts profit

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Exchange Bet.

Ridge Dance 2 pts win @3.40 with BetFair

Finished strongly last season in races over 8 furlongs and could well have won the Royal Lodge Stakes with a bit of luck in running. A line via several of the field that day gives him a resonable chance of beating the favourite.If we ignore his terrible performance in the Racing Post race at Doncaster then the odds on offer look a bit too long and should be about 2.9 to 3 (IMO). Even with comm of 5% we are getting 3.23 which justabout sanctions a bet.

Last Loss on bet = -2 pts

That what can happen when you take a chance on a horse getting the trip and having it's first run of the season. My fault Sometimes you need a reversal to keep yourself focused.

[Kamo]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

Exchange Bet

8.00 Hexham

Mr Barnacle 3 pts win @2.02 with BetChronicle*

In what looks to be a 2 horse race appears to be the one to back. When examining the form in detail, it is pretty clear that Mr Barnacle beaten a number of horses with either good form at that time or who run well in subsequent races. The same can't be said for Innominate who appears to have rarely finished in front of a decent hurdler. IMO my selection should be c1.85 so the odds here represent a little value IMO.


*Betchronicle prices are closely relate to Betdaq and for the purposes of this thread I considered it to be an exchange.

Nice winner there Cavello , he gave it a loveley ride

[cavelloman]

Can't bekieve the price. I naturally doubled my bet

[mileni4uk]

Me too, mate. I fancied it myself and can't believe it drifted. Was the better horse on form and proved that

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Newmarket 3.20

Infallible 1 pt E/W @5.4 with SportingBet. (1/4 odds)

Clocked a time a little better then the Free Handicap on the same day but did it in an impressive manner in her race over 7 furlong.s The field she beat consisted of a field of fillies rated 90 to 100 in her Group 3 race but she beat them easily. The favourite Natagora may have more problems staying 8 furlongs then Infallable. Normally 115 OR is the level to win this race. If we assume that 1 length = 3lbs and you consider Infallible could have won by 6l in her last race then on my calculation she is up to the level to win this race.

[cavelloman]

E/W BET

Hamilton 4.40

Lochiel 1 pt E/W @3/1 with BetFred

Based mainly on the figures

HORSE	BF PL	BF WIN	BOOK ODDS		5-7 POT RETURN %	% PLACE
LOCHIEL	1.63	3.95	4.00		108.72%	61.35

Selection run well on this course and distance and hopefully can upset the favourite who may just be a bit overrated. Most of the field bar the first 3 in the betting appear to be useless(fanous last words)

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Hamilton 4.40

Prince Rhyddarch 1 pt E/W @11/1 with Betfred.

Glimpse of possible ability LTO. But again bet based mainly on market comparsions

Prince Rhyddarch

4.00

11.00

12.00

102.27%

25.00

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Kempton 2.00

Imperial Skylight 2 pts E/W @14/1 with BetFred

Just beaten on this course on first outing. On 2nd outing appeared unsuited to going. Clocked a fair time here and the race was also at this level class 4. The favourite was beaten in a class 5.

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Kempton 4.00

Barricado 1 pt E/W @13/2 with Bet365(BOG)

The market figures makes this an E/W vale bet . The form suggest this horse could still be progressing and on breeding got a good chance of acting well on an artificial surface.

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Newmarket 3.20

Infallible 1 pt E/W @5.4 with SportingBet. (1/4 odds)

Clocked a time a little better then the Free Handicap on the same day but did it in an impressive manner in her race over 7 furlong.s The field she beat consisted of a field of fillies rated 90 to 100 in her Group 3 race but she beat them easily. The favourite Natagora may have more problems staying 8 furlongs then Infallable. Normally 115 OR is the level to win this race. If we assume that 1 length = 3lbs and you consider Infallible could have won by 6l in her last race then on my calculation she is up to the level to win this race.

Unplaced -2 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W BET

Hamilton 4.40

Lochiel 1 pt E/W @3/1 with BetFred

Based mainly on the figures




Selection run well on this course and distance and hopefully can upset the favourite who may just be a bit overrated. Most of the field bar the first 3 in the betting appear to be useless(fanous last words)

Won profit = 3.75 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Hamilton 4.40

Prince Rhyddarch 1 pt E/W @11/1 with Betfred.

Glimpse of possible ability LTO. But again bet based mainly on market comparsions

Unplaced lost on Bet = -2 pts

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

E/W Bet

Kempton 2.00

Imperial Skylight 2 pts E/W @14/1 with BetFred

Just beaten on this course on first outing. On 2nd outing appeared unsuited to going. Clocked a fair time here and the race was also at this level class 4. The favourite was beaten in a class 5.

Unplaced missed the break and things got worse, Very disappointed

Loss on Bet = -4 pts

[cavelloman]

E/W Bet

Kemptom 4.00

Coitton Reel 1pt E/W @12/1 with SportingBet

Reasonable form but a bit ofd doubt about staying ability but with this selection trading at 2.4 on the excahges for the place. I must place a small E/W Bet