The Best Place (TBP) around

[wichuda]

This is a system that i have been doing myself for some 6-7 months it can be done by using Betfair or any bookmaker that offer PLACE odds on the given races(mainly PP) depending of course who is offering the best odds or if the amount of runners drops below 16 (then Betfair only to be used)

The races involved are only Irish Handicap Hurdle 16+(entered) runner races these races always look like complete nightmare races but i have found by using certain methods it can bring good rewards.

I will always give a few reasons why i put up my selection and to make it fair where possible i will always divide my stake into 2 giving the price that the bookmaker are offering and an average price that should be obtainable on Betfair.
My recommendation for this system on the Betfair side is always wait until the last <5 minutes as Irish racing tends not to have much liquidity until just before the off.

I hope i have explained what i am doing reasonably well.


Sorry for the edit as i know it says not to in the rules but i thought maybe i had not explained it enough these selections will only ever be for PLACED(first 4) purposes only

[Spooner]

Good luck mate.

[wichuda]

As recommended on the rules.

Running Total 100 points

8:30 Bellewstown ALLESANDRO TBP

1. Stable in form, 50% strike rate in last 14 days
2. Rated 10lb higher than the fav(Posh Lady) on the flat
3. Only beaten 12 1/2 lengths on first try in handicap
4. Best forn last year was around this time


4 points @ 5/4 Paddy Power
4 points Betfair

[Spooner]

Nice start.

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by Spooner

Nice start.

Yes always good to get the first one in, had no idea that it was going to be piled into and go off favourite.
Next selection will be for the 3:45 @ Limerick tomorrow

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by wichuda

As recommended on the rules.

Running Total 100 points

8:30 Bellewstown ALLESANDRO TBP

4 points @ 5/4 Paddy Power
4 points Betfair

Result 3rd

Profit 5 points(PP) + 4 points(av 2.0) = 9 points

Running Total 109 points

3:45 Limerick PIANO STAR TBP

1. Was rated @ 100+ on the flat (04 season)when trained by Stoute
2. Softer ground should help
3. Will come on for his reapperance run
4. only 2nd run for new trainer who is in reasonable form


3 points @ 2/1 Paddy Power (still going 4 places)
3 points Betfair

[wichuda]

Running Total 109 points

3:45 Limerick PIANO STAR TBP

Result 9th


Running total 103 points

7:45 Roscommon An Cailin Coole & Curraghmorechop

1. Both should go in the ground
2. Most of the principles have either no form in Heavy ground or are not bred for it
3. An Cailin Coole should appreciate staying at this trip on softer ground & Curraghmorechop will appreciate step up to this trip first time in handicap
4. Curraghmorechop maiden form has lots of horses that finished around it rated at least 10lbs higher and running well

Both 1 point @ 5/1 Paddy Power
Both 1 point Betfair

[wichuda]

Running total 103 points

7:45 Roscommon An Cailin Coole & Curraghmorechop

Result 9th & 15th

Running Total 99 points

8:00 Roscommon Cabot Square

1. Likes Heavy going
2. Much less competative race then been in before in handicaps
3. Back down in trip which should suit

2 points Betfair only

[wichuda]

Running Total 99 points

8:00 Roscommon Cabot Square

Result 3rd (9.0 av)

Running Total 117 points


Next Race Thursday

[Spooner]

Nice one YY.

[wichuda]

Running Total 117 points

5:50 Fairyhouse Offside

1. First try @ 3m but has run well over 2m4f in the soft & heavy + Topanoora can get stayers when there is stamina on the dam sire's side
2. Its last 3 runs when coming back off a small break have all been reasonable
3. Its 89 rating is lowest so far to date and has run well in better races off higher

2 points @ 9/2 Paddy Power
2 points Betfair

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by wichuda

Running Total 117 points

5:50 Fairyhouse Offside

2 points @ 9/2 Paddy Power
2 points Betfair

Result 4th 9 points + 7.2 (4.6 av)

Running Total 133.2

[wichuda]

Running Total 133.2

ALL PRICES TODAY FOR MYSELF ARE TAKEN FROM PADDY POWER AS WILL BE OUT WHEN RACES ARE RUN

7:50 Cork Rory's Sister

1. 2nd over same distance off 5lbs higher
2. David Casey has been placed 4 times out of his last 6 rides for Charlie Swan
3. Should be spot on after 2 runs back after a break

2 points @ 4/1 Paddy Power


6:05 Wexford Tracer/Arondo

Arondo
1. Its 5th when last completed over hurdles which was off the same mark as today was in a much better race than this.
2. The 2 hurdle races since when has fell have also been in much better races than todays
Tracer
1. Is well handicapped with the other horses on flat form
2. The form of Its 5th over hurdles last time has worked out well with all the horses around it having run well since

Both 4 points @ 13/8 Paddy Power

6:35 Wexford Oscar Dubh

1. Last 2 runs on firmish ground would have not suited
2. 2 of its last 3 runs over same distance on softish ground, 5th to Tax Exemption & 8th to Knock On The Head would easily be goodenough to place in this race
3. Jockey is in very good form

3 points @ 3/1 Paddy Power

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by wichuda

Running Total 133.2

ALL PRICES TODAY FOR MYSELF ARE TAKEN FROM PADDY POWER AS WILL BE OUT WHEN RACES ARE RUN

7:50 Cork Rory's Sister

1. 2nd over same distance off 5lbs higher
2. David Casey has been placed 4 times out of his last 6 rides for Charlie Swan
3. Should be spot on after 2 runs back after a break

2 points @ 4/1 Paddy Power


6:05 Wexford Tracer/Arondo

Arondo
1. Its 5th when last completed over hurdles which was off the same mark as today was in a much better race than this.
2. The 2 hurdle races since when has fell have also been in much better races than todays
Tracer
1. Is well handicapped with the other horses on flat form
2. The form of Its 5th over hurdles last time has worked out well with all the horses around it having run well since

Both 4 points @ 13/8 Paddy Power

6:35 Wexford Oscar Dubh

1. Last 2 runs on firmish ground would have not suited
2. 2 of its last 3 runs over same distance on softish ground, 5th to Tax Exemption & 8th to Knock On The Head would easily be goodenough to place in this race
3. Jockey is in very good form

3 points @ 3/1 Paddy Power

SCRAP THE 2 6:05 SELECTIONS AS ONLY 15 ARE RUNNING AND PADDY POWER ARE ONLY DOING FIRST 3 PLACES

[wichuda]

Running Total 133.2

Results
Rory's Sister 15th
Oscar Dubh 7th

Running Total 128.2

[wichuda]

Running Total 128.2

ALL BETS ARE ON BETFAIR TODAY

3:55 Sligo Diyla & Oola Lad

Diyla
1. Runs on flat reasonable in context of this race
2. Ideal trip today
3. The softer ground than what he faced on his last 2 runs over hurdles in his favour
Oola Lad
1. Been running in alot tougher races than this, hence top weight today
2. Heavy ground was against him only poor run over 20F+
3. Its maiden hurdle win would be plenty goodenough to see it place today

Both 3 points on Betfair

4:25 Sligo Bobs Hope

1. showed improvement last time
2. ran to his handicap back in Ireland last time in a better race
3. Flanagans 3lb claim makes him well enough handicapped today to place

4 points on Betfair

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by wichuda

Running Total 128.2

ALL BETS ARE ON BETFAIR TODAY

3:55 Sligo Diyla & Oola Lad
Both 3 points on Betfair

4:25 Sligo Bobs Hope
4 points on Betfair

Results
6th & 8th
5th

Running Total 118.2

[wichuda]

Running Total 118.2

2:55 Killarney All Sorts Star

1. Has run well on its last 4 runs over hurdles, no reason to think he cannot do it again
2. Trainer in form
3. Davy Russell booked

3 points Betfair

3:25 Killarney Fen Game

1. Trainer in form
2. Ran well on the flat last time
3. still looks to have a bit of improvement to come over hurdles

3 points Betfair

[wichuda]

Originally Posted by wichuda

Running Total 118.2

2:55 Killarney All Sorts Star

3 points Betfair

3:25 Killarney Fen Game

3 points Betfair

Results

1st 2.4 = + 4.2
6th = -3

Running Total 119.4

[wichuda]

Running Total 119.4

6:50 Kilbeggan Kerry Allstar

1. Not that far behind Allesandro
2. Stable in form
3. Could appreciate this step up in trip having run well in a 20F NHF race

2 points betfair

7:20 Killbeggan Scolboa King

1. Is a C&D specalist with 2 3rd's from his last 3 runs
2. This looks to be a lesser contest than those previos 2

4 points betfair