ATR Speed Ratings (62.17pts PROFIT)

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

17 JULY

8.20 SANDOWN - ADDWAITYA (nap) - 5pts LOST
9.00 BATH - HEAVEN (nb) - 3pts WON 11/4

18 JULY

2.15 NOTTINGHAM - BONNE (nap) - 5pts
4.50 NOTTINGHAM - SARAH PARK (nb) - 3pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

18 JULY

2.15 NOTTINGHAM - BONNE (nap) - 5pts WON 4/1
4.50 NOTTINGHAM - SARAH PARK (nb) - 3pts WON 4/1

('nuff said)

[Kamo]

Well done manckevin going well

[manckevin]

19 JULY

2.20 NEWBURY - CORRYBROUGH (nap) - 5pts
8.10 HAYDOCK - COTTON EYED JOE (nb) - 3pts

[manckevin]

Just to re-visit all the latest stats on this, this is how they currently shape up (comparison can be found with the initial thread posted):
All Selections from 31 May : Win 28.63%, Place 28.24%, +69.26pts
Nap Selections from 31 May : Win 35.56%, Place 31.11%, +39.42pts
NB Selections from 31 May : Win 45.45%, Place 27.27%, +68.60pts
Nap & NB Selections from 31 May : Win 40.45%, Place 29.21%, +108.02pts
Non Nap/NB Selections from 31 May : Win 22.54%, Place 27.75%, -38.76pts

* All profit/loss figures based on 5pts NAP, 3pts NB, 1pt for all others.

Interestingly, the nb selections appear to fare better than the nap selections. I will consider upping the stake on these to 5pts also at some point as this would have significantly improved the returns. I will of course make that clear on here if that is to be the case.

One other aspect I have looked at is staking.

A 100pt bank on all selections staking 5% per selection would now have dropped to only 23.28pts (conversely, the staking of 1/3/5pts would be well in profit).

A 100pt bank on all nap/nb selections staking 10% per selection would now be 472.61pts (currently at a record high having dropped as low as 40.64pts)

On the selections posted on PL, starting with a 100pt bank and staking 10% per selection would now be 200.05pts (currently at a record high having dropped as low as 17.20pts)

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

19 JULY

2.20 NEWBURY - CORRYBROUGH (nap) - 5pts LOST
8.10 HAYDOCK - COTTON EYED JOE (nb) - 3pts LOST

20 JULY

2.50 REDCAR - BROUHAHA (nb) - 3pts NON RUNNER
3.35 FAIRYHOUSE - ROCK MOSS (nap) - 5pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

20 JULY

2.50 REDCAR - BROUHAHA (nb) - 3pts NON RUNNER
3.35 FAIRYHOUSE - ROCK MOSS (nap) - 5pts LOST

21 JULY

8.20 WINDSOR - ORIENTAL GIRL (nap) - 5pts
8.50 WINDSOR - KING SUPREME (nb) - 3pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

21 JULY

8.20 WINDSOR - ORIENTAL GIRL (nap) - 5pts PLACED 13/2
8.50 WINDSOR - KING SUPREME (nb) - 3pts PLACED 7/2*

* 2nd by a nose

Typical, no placed selections for a week, then two in a day. No winners for a few days now, so again, back to advising caution when following this, but the trends do seem to show good and bad patches, it's just a case of catching it at the right time.

22 JULY

Exactly the same race times again tomorrow, let's hope the results are slightly better Plenty of footnotes for today as well, as you'll see below:

8.20 GREAT LEIGHS - WRENINGHAM (nb) - 3pts
8.50 GREAT LEIGHS - HURRICANE HEN (nap) - 5pts**

** Twice a S6 winner (nap both times) at 2/1 (30 June) and 7/4 (14 July).

*** AW (based on Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Southwell) 9 selections, 5 wins, 4 placed for a profit of 51.65pts (nap/nb only) - could be skewed slightly as not sure - and not yet checked - if last weeks Lingfield winners were on turf or AW. Discounting those makes it only a small 3.15pts profit.

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

22 JULY

8.20 GREAT LEIGHS - WRENINGHAM (nb) - 3pts PLACED 9/4
8.50 GREAT LEIGHS - HURRICANE HEN (nap) - 5pts PLACED 2/1

23 JULY

4.20 CATTERICK - MESSIAH GARVEY (nap) - 5pts
5.00 LINGFIELD - CITY FOR CONQUEST (nb) - 3pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

23 JULY

4.20 CATTERICK - MESSIAH GARVEY (nap) - 5pts LOST
5.00 LINGFIELD - CITY FOR CONQUEST (nb) - 3pts WON 4/1

Back to winning ways again at last.

24 JULY

3.20 SANDOWN - MAID FOR MUSIC (nap) - 5pts
4.30 SANDOWN - HUNTING COUNTRY (nb) - 3pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

Back to winning ways again at last.

24 JULY

3.20 SANDOWN - MAID FOR MUSIC (nap) - 5pts LOST
4.30 SANDOWN - HUNTING COUNTRY (nb) - 3pts LOST

25 JULY

4.30 ASCOT - BUCCELLATI (nap) - 5pts
8.45 NEWMARKET - SARAH PARK (nb) - 3pts

Will update stats etc. tomorrow.

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

25 JULY

4.30 ASCOT - BUCCELLATI (nap) - 5pts WON 2/1
8.45 NEWMARKET - SARAH PARK (nb) - 3pts ***

*** Should've also mentioned that SARAH PARK is a former nb winner, winning at odds of 4/1 on 18 July (and therefore also posted on this thread)

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

25 JULY

4.30 ASCOT - BUCCELLATI (nap) - 5pts WON 2/1
8.45 NEWMARKET - SARAH PARK (nb) - 3pts LOST

26 JULY

4.40 NEWMARKET - ALWAYS BOLD (nb) - 3pts
7.40 SALISBURY - OARSMAN (nap) - 5pts

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

26 JULY

4.40 NEWMARKET - ALWAYS BOLD (nb) - 3pts WON EVS
7.40 SALISBURY - OARSMAN (nap) - 5pts PLACED 2/1

27 JULY

3.05 CARLISLE - CLARET AND AMBER (nb) - 3pts
4.10 CURRAGH - MISS GORICA (nap) - 5pts

This thread will be closed at the end of today and re-started tomorrow as Version 2 - all nap/nb bets *will* as mentioned a few days ago be going to 5pts each.

LOGIC

All NAP bets (since I started monitoring) are 31.48% win, 33.33% placed for 14.42pts profit (based on 5pt stakes).

All NB bets (since I started monitoring) are 42.31% win, 26.92% placed for 68.60pts profit (based on 3pts stakes) and as such, 114.33pts profit based on 5pts.

[manckevin]

Originally Posted by manckevin

27 JULY

3.05 CARLISLE - CLARET AND AMBER (nb) - 3pts PLACED EVS
4.10 CURRAGH - MISS GORICA (nap) - 5pts LOST

Loss on the day -8.00pts

Thread Total +33.17pts

more to follow...

[manckevin]

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