South America - Copa Libertadores (3-5 May)

[davidmphill]

Wednesday 3 May 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Velez v Newell's Old Boys (23:15 BST)	1.90	3.45	4.50	104%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even Total
Thursday 4 May 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Internacional v Nacional (01:45 BST)	1.40	4.33	9.00	106%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
São Paulo v Palmeiras (01:45 BST)	1.75	3.50	4.75	107%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Goias v Estudiantes (23:15 BST)	1.61	3.75	5.75	106%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even Total
Libertad v Tigres (23:15 BST)	2.00	3.40	3.95	105%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Friday 5 May 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Corinthians v River Plate (01:45 BST)	1.75	3.45	4.50	109%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceHalf-time ResultOdd or Even TotalOver/Under

[Xcout]

Chivas de Guadalajara with 1/2 AH @ 1.91 with 10/10 at Pointbet

Indepiente de Santa Fe vs Chivas de Guadalajara
03.05.2006 04:45 a.m. (CET Time)

Independiente Santa Fe is in free fall since a week, where they lost to Chivas in Jalisco stadium by 3-0 and then being defeated 1-3 by America the Cali, which leaves them with out a place in Mustang Cup. The coach is warned that he should start winning or he could lost his job.

In Copa Libertadores the team advance in first place of Group 2, winning two matches, draw one in home. And as visit won 1 and lost two. The will miss Luis Yanes because of injury.

They need to score 3 goals in order to extra time, but if Chivas score a goal they will need to score 5 goals to qualified.

Independiente Santa Fe:
Luis Enrique Martínez; Jairo Suárez, Francisco Nájera, Jhon Freddy Tierradentro, Francisco Delgado; Gabriel Gómez, Juan Carlos Ramírez, César Fawcet; David Montoya; José Largacha y Léider Preciado.
D.T.:Ricardo Gareca

Meanwhile Chivas altough lossing with Toluca, they qualified to the mexican playoffs becuase some results came out. This will make them play matches today, tuesday and sunday. And the players are prepared for this schedule.

Chivas in libertadores cup is unbeaten, and beat twice São Paulo (champion of FIFA club championship). With out national squad players take a draw against cienciano, and won to Independiente, still missing those players, the young ones are doing a great job, altough not winning in the local league they have leave a good impresion. Some of this players where part of the under 17 that won the world championship of the category.

The quality of Aldolfo "Bofo" Bautista is show in every match and against Toluca was near scoring two goals but bad luck keep them outside the net.

The team was reinforce with Juan Pablo "Chato" Rodríguez came from UAG Tecos to reinforce the team and in the first match he play made a great job.

Missing players because call up in National squad:
GK Oswaldo Sánchez
D Carlos Salcido
D Francisco Javier Rodríguez
M Gonzalo Pineda
M Ramón Morales
F Omar Bravo

Injured Playes
M Patricio Araujo

Club Deportivo Guadalajara:
Alfredo Talavera; Diego Martínez, Christian Armas, Johnny García, Héctor Reynoso; Manuel Sol, Juan Pablo Rodríguez, Edwin Borboa, Omar Esparza; Adolfo Bautista y Sergio Santana.
D.T.:Manuel de la Torre

I really expect Chivas to came out and show why they haven't lost in this Libertadores Cup, and they are trough with a draw, still they said they want to go out and finish the other team. Also one important fact, With the salary of two Chivas players you could pay to all of Independiente players.

[ianm001]

One bet for me tonight and that will be Atletico Nacional to beat LDU at home. LDU lead 4-0 from 1st leg and will rest players tonight. I am very confident of the home win mainly because Atletico have a great home record and I cannot see them losing although I think they may only win win 2 goals therefore failing to qualify for the next round.

9/10 stakes Atletico Nacional to beat LDU

Good Luck

[Xcout]

Bet lost! -10 U

Independiente 3-1 Chivas Guadalajara.. altough Chivas start winning 0-1.

[Milos NS]

Sao Paulo - Palmeiras


*Second leg of 1/8 final Copa Libertadores, and this game is all or nothing for both teams. Everything in this game is going in S.Paolo favour. They are running champions of Copa Libertadores 2005, they are in better form, they play at their Morumbi stadium, and they have excellent first leg resoult 1-1. But cup competitions are allways hard to predict and this is perfect oppurtunity for Verdão to bounce back after few bad resoults.

*As I said S.Paolo is in good form, they won on saturday 4-0 against Santa Cruz, but coach Muricy Ramalho wasn;t so satisfied. He said that his team played good only second half, and that they must take seriously every opponent. He also said that his team don't know how to play on a draw (S.Paolo is in 1/4 finals with 0-0), and that they will play for win.
For todays game, left lateral Junior is out with injury, and attacker Thiago is very doubtfull.

*Palmeiras is in bad form so far. They have good squad imho, but there are some problems. For tonights game, coach Marcelo Vilar can't count on these players: Daniel (injury) and Douglas (suspension). They will play tonight in formation 4-4-2. Vilar said that he knows his team must to win but they won't rush into attack... They will be patient...

*Probable squads:
SÃO PAULO: Rogério Ceni; Fabão, Lugano e André Dias; Souza, Mineiro, Josué, Danilo e Júnior; Aloísio e Thiago (Leandro)
Técnico: Muricy Ramalho

PALMEIRAS: Sérgio; Paulo Baier, Thiago Gomes, Gamarra e Lúcio; Marcinho Guerreiro, Correa, Wendel e Marcinho; Edmundo e Washington
Técnico: Marcelo Vilar (interino)

Prediction:
S.Paolo @1.75 6/10 Centrebet

[ianm001]

Hey Milnos. Just wondering what you think the chances are of 3 home wins tonight.

Velez to beat Newells
Sao Paulo to beat Palmieras
Internacional to beat Nacional

Any thoughts?

[trendi]

i totally agree on your prediction about Sao Paulo
Nothing in this world can stop the home team from getting the win tonight.
It's all about pride after all!!How can a last year winner in this cup be beaten in 8th finals??
Sao Paulo have only one loss at home,and it's against Ch. Guadalj..
Against Palmeiras they show quite a form,losing only in Serie A, where IMO they don't try to impress anyone.

26-04-2006	Copa Libertadores	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	1 - 1
05-02-2006	Paulista	Sao Paulo/SP	Palmeiras/SP	4 - 2
12-11-2005	Serie A	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	2 - 1
04-08-2005	Serie A	Sao Paulo/SP	Palmeiras/SP	3 - 3
25-05-2005	Copa Libertadores	Sao Paulo/SP	Palmeiras/SP	2 - 0
18-05-2005	Copa Libertadores	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	0 - 1
20-02-2005	Paulista	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	0 - 3
02-10-2004	Serie A	Sao Paulo/SP	Palmeiras/SP	2 - 1
27-06-2004	Serie A	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	2 - 1
02-10-2002	Serie A	Palmeiras/SP	Sao Paulo/SP	1 - 1

So,i can't say nothing more in addition but only that i strongly support the home team,and for the moment i don't see a clear favorit who can threaten our present champion

[3hree]

Ok, here I will convince you of a S.P home win... and myself

Not 100% sure but these stats will back up my selection, and hopefully make up my mind!!

Firstly team news and historical context

Sao Paulo already holding the advantage of the away goal and so will progress if the score is 0-0, extra time and penalties will be played if the score ends 1-1. First ideas are to cover the home win with 0-0 and 1-1 as I cannot see an away win here at all.
Ramahlo, coach of S.P, has come out and stated his team's importance on progressing and defending their title. He also pointed out the fitting tribute to the sadly departed Tele Santana, the coach who guided S.P to back to back victories in the Copa Libertadores in 1992 and 1993.
These comments were opposed by Palmeiras forward Edmundo who questions S.P's confidence and the worrying consequences of going into a match believeing you have already won. Bit of a disasterous period for Palmeiras who recently sacked their coach and now are managed by their former B team coach!

Palmeiras haven't really figured past the quarter finals since 2001 when they reached the semis, a year previous they were beaten on penalties by River Plate, and a year previous to that they beat Deportivo Cali on penalties.
The somewhat derbious atmosphere created by 50,000 S.P fans will add to the heat of the pitch. The previous leg saw 64 fouls!! The game should've been won in the 78th minute, but for S.P goalkeeper, Rogerio Ceni, keeping the tie pretty much even. The four times cup winners, Palmeiras, had four midfield suspensions that day and I am sure that if things are not going their way tonight certain players will lose it and discipline will be a mere dream!!
Palmeiras in need of a win or a 2-2 draw or better have achieved such a result FIVE out of the last TEN times they visited S.P! Doesn't read so good. And when you consider that Rogerio Ceni, goalkeeper, is two goals away from becoming the club's top scorer in the Copa Libertadores you can easily oppose backing S.P to win.

Head to Head since 2004 these teams read...

SP 5 DRAW 2 PAL 2

History is certainly with Sao Paulo tonight, results mirroring the home game for S.P since 2004 read...

2-1 Win
2-0 Win
3-3 Draw
4-2 Win

SAO PAULO HAVE NEVER BEEN BEATEN AT HOME BY A BRAZILIAN SIDE IN THE COPA LIBERATORES
Many late goals involved in these games and the 3-3 draw came from S.P being 3-1 up. 10 out of the 17 goals in these past four games haev come past the 70th minute!! So if the result looks grim don't despair until the dying moments!!

The S.P manager has been displaying his defensive qualities, emphasising the importance of Fabao, Lugano and Day. An element of his team that will have to be on top form to guarantee progress in this years competition.

"the defense is marking very well. The three very are integrated, acting well and the protection of both flying is working. That gives confidence for everybody in the group "

S.P haven't conceeded in the last three at home, league and cup, and I believe that Palmeiras' crisis with manager and leaking goals is more a reflection of the team than the coach. A constantly poor performing team cannot be simply down to the manager, a well respected manager of Brazil found himself the blame for poor football from Palmeiras and in my opinion I can see S.P turning them over here. Perhaps outlaying a few shockwaves to the awaiting Estudiantes/Goas.

Form, Injury and Suspensions.

The form of the two teams is the defining factor in making my bets tonight.
Sao Paulo's home form in CL reads...
Won 2 Lost 1 GF7 GA3
When you consider their away form matched their win/draw/loss form at home you might question the reliability of S.P at home. Their only defeats to the strong Mexican side of Chivas in two closely fought 2-1 results.
Three out of the last four games for S.P have seen a red card for their OPPOSITION. This tells me that S.P are somewhat difficult to play against and their football suits only themselves.
Form in Brazilian league reads Won 2, Lost 1, both victories coming at home and giving S.P at goal difference of plus 5 at home.

Palmeiras' away form in CL reads... (excluding qualifiers)
Won 1 Draw 2 GF4 GA3
Their home form reads worse with W1 D1 L1. The league form of Palmeiras gives bit more hope for the home win. 2-3, 6-1, 1-2, all loses. The goal occurences of these matches also demonstrates the teams poor concentration. Their 2-1 defeat at home came after they conceeded two after leading 1-0 up until the 67th min. The 6-1 defeat, that led to the sacking of the coach, demonstrates the disastrous morale and concentration of Palmeiras as they conceeded 3 in the space of 12mins.

S.P's previous game, on Saturday, saw many players resting, 7 to be precise, yet Thiago and Junior are still injury worries for S.P. Oliviera, a more long term injury worry, is definately out.

Managerial and player quotes back up the importance of not running away with victory in the mental state...

"We should respect Palmeiras, but is clear that playing in the Morumbi (home stadium) we should impose our style of game", midfielder - Danilo. The fullback Lugano follows, "We will have a very hard adversary by the front. Does not this exist history of favoritism in classic. São Paulo may be living a better moment, but that does not guarantee the victory. We should enter and play",
More defensive injury worries for Palmeiras, who's worst period of form since 1971, sees them without international goalkeeper, Marcos. Central Defender Thiago Gomez also comes in for the injured Daniel. After Sunday's 2-1 defeat, Juninho is a doubt yet the return of Lucio gives a few more options for Palmeiras. A native of Sao Paulo, Juninho's fitness is in the balance, an integral piece of their season so far I can see them being forced to play him unfit and therefore effectively pushing down their 11 men status. An injured Juninho is better than an absent one, one might say, but not against S.P! Their formation in the first leg, the use of attacking full backs, will be scrapped tonight and 4-4-2 will be used. A factor that, I believe, will work in favour of S.P, more familiar with the formation, they will feel more confident about committing players forward as the counter attacking nature of the full back system will not be in place. I also gather, from the website, that Palmeiras have drafted midfielders in from the B team, understandable for the coach as he knows the players well, but given the brevity of this match, I believe a bad move.

The attacking prowess of Palmeiras, that has failed in the 3 league games this season, is one worry for me when backing the home win. I will happily cover with a 0-0 and 1-1, but am aware of aspirations of 2-2 and 3-3 for the away side. I cannot see this being the case as S.P will want to close off any attack. With a tight defence so far this season, S.P cannot conceed more than 1 goal I believe. I will cover the 0-0 and 1-1, but at the back of my mind am aware of the dangers of a high scoring draw, given a price analysis I may back one of these for security.

Odds Analysis and Final bets

1.65/1.66 available @Paddypower/Betfair on Home Win, some bookies (10bet) go as low as 1.46
1.75 available for Asian Handicap of -0.5/1 on behalf of Sao Paulo, gives little value in my opinion given the nature of a win being necessary.
0-0, 1-1 around odds of 10/1 and 7/1 with Ladbrokes and many others. 2-2 @15s and 3-3@50s

Final bets:

Sao Paulo Home Win at 1.65 with Betfair
C.S Cover of 0-0, 1-1 with Betfair

[meatman]

nice work Johnny

GL mate

[3hree]

Thanks mate, lets hope they can do the business!! It seems every big bet i've had of late hasn't paid off! Kinda hurt my funds a bit so this is a big one to get me back in the game

[meatman]

I know what ya mean mate, some bets are really important and I sense its a big game for ya

[3hree]

1-0 half time, close it off now S.P!

[3hree]

1-1, shot ratio is counted at 8 shots to S.P, 2 to Palmeiras....
same old story

[3hree]

S.P down to 10men, I certainly do pick 'em!!

[3hree]

Sao Paulo pulled it out of the bag with a twice taken penalty in a game that saw 10 yellows and 3 reds. The discipline part of my analysis was spot on, poor that S.P saw the first red earlylish in the second half. Anyhoo all's well that ends well!! And this night has ended well

[meatman]

nice 1 mate, excellent tipping

[davidmphill]

Great thread guys, hope to see plenty more.