South America 28-30.04.2006

[Milos NS]

Sao Paulo - Santa Cruz


*São Paulo does not want to give any possibility to visitors in this game. They played 2 games in Brasiliero so far, and earned 4 pts. so far:
2006-04-27 Palmeiras-Sao Paolo 1-1
2006-04-23 Fortaleza-Sao Paolo 1-0
They played Copa Libertadores in midweek, draw 1-1 with Plameiras, but today they will not rest any regulars. Coach Muricy Ramalho, confirmed that he will play with same 11, he played against Palmeiras. Ok, ok they have two injured players: Richarlyson (left knee) and Ricardo Oliveira. Muricy Ramalho explained his reasons to play with best 11: "We choose to rest players against Fortaleza, becouse that was long trip and hard away game, but this is something different. Today on Morumbi we have perfect conditions, and I will go with full force against Santa Cruz. I want to WIN."

*On the other hand, newcomers in Serie A, Santa Cruz, after two games have just one point, but they play hard football:
2006-04-23 Internacional-Santa Cruz 1-0
2006-04-16 Santa Cruz-Figueirense 0-0
Today cocah Giba will be able to count on two players: midlefielder Rosembrik and striker Val Baiano. But another attacker Thiago Gentil is injured. Giba said to local papers: "We respect Tricolori, but we are going to Morumbi to play football and try to take 3 points."

*Probable squads:
São Paulo
Rogério Ceni; Fabão, Lugano e André Dias; Souza, Josué, Mineiro, Danilo e Júnior; Thiago e Aloísio.
Técnico: Muricy Ramalho

Santa Cruz
Gilmar; Osmar, Valença, Adriano e Xavier; Rosembrik, Fernando Miguel, Júnior Maranhão e Zada; Carlinhos Bala e Val Baiano.
Técnico: Giba

*H2H:
2001-08-11 18:30 Sao Paolo 3 1 Santa Cruz

*I expect really one sided game, becouse Tricolori are good home team, and they are certanlly better team than Santa Cruz.

Prediction:
S.Paolo -1AH @1.90 Interwetten 5/10
Over 2.75 @1.93 Pointbet 3/10

4-0 both bets won

[Milos NS]

Gimnasia L.P. - River Plate

At first look this is a game without any juice. Look at combined table :
1 Boca Juniors----35 22--8--5 65:31 74
2 Gimnasia LP-----35 19--8--8 50:34 65
3 River Plate-----35 16-10--9 64:40 58
4 Velez-----------35 15-11--9 46:32 56
_______________________________________
5 Banfield------- 35 13-14--8 48:35 53
---------------------------------------
6 Lanus---------- 35 14-11-10 43:45 53
So Gimnasia LP is second, River 3rd, both teams pretty secure for Copa Libertadores for next season. But in this game Gimnasia LP will play with full squad.
On the other hand, Daniel Passarella, Rivers coach will rest almost all regulars, becouse in midweek they play against Timao in Brasil, and that is game of the year for them. River team against Corinthians few days ago looked like this: Germán Lux; Leonardo talamonti, Julio Cáceres, Danilo Gerlo; Paulo Ferrari, Jonathan Santana, Oscar Ahumada, Federico Domínguez; Marcelo Gallardo; Gustavo Oberman and Gonzalo Abán.

Probable squads:
GIMNASIA (LP): Carlos Fernando Navarro Montoya; Diego Herner, Jorge San Esteban, Marcelo Goux; Nicolás Cabrera, Matías Escobar, Esteban González, Lucas Licht, Roberto Cornejo; Martín Cardetti y Gonzalo Vargas.

RIVER: Juan Pablo Carrizo; Cristian Tula, Leonardo Talamonti, Franco Miranda; Diego Barrado, Augusto Fernández, René Lima, Lucas Mareque; Rubens Sambueza; Gustavo Oberman y Gonzalo Higuaín.

As you can see, just Leonardo Talamonti and Gustavo Oberman will play again today. So I see great value on home win.

Prediction:
Gimnasia LP @2.30 Interwetten 5/10

[Milos NS]

Vasco da Gama - Fluminense


*Game between two teams who didn't lose for quite some time. I must admit I love Fluminense side. They play good football, and they play attacking football. Yes and there is Dejan "Rambo" Petkovic, king of Fluminense.

*Vasko after 2 rounds have 4 points:
Ponte Preta - Vasco da Gama 1:2
Vasco da Gama - Internacional 1:1
They playe Copa Brasil in thursday and they didn't have much time to train for this game. Coach Renato Gaúcho, must be happy with his defence. They conceded just 7 goals in last 8 matches. 12 matches before that they conceded 21 goal. But I think their defence is not so good. Vasko is attacking side, and they like to play OVER games. Flu's attack will be big test for this so called "good Vasko D-unit". Renato Gaúcho is still out with injury, and coach is concerned becouse his two attackers Valdiram and Edílson didn't score for 5 games in a row now.

*Fluminense is coming to this game in great spirit. They are no.1 in Brasiliero after 2 weeks, they playing good in Copa, and they must be happy with that. They are withouth lose for 11 consecutive games now. This game is big derby and they now importance of winning this kind of games. Btw. they didn't won against Vasko away from home for 6 years in a row now, and this is perfect opportuniti for them (0-2-5 from 2000-2006.). Coach Oswaldo de Oliveira will go on Vasko with full squad, no calculations. Midlefielder Marcão is only player injured or suspended for Flu in this game.

*Probable squads:
Vasco
Cássio; Wagner Diniz, Fábio Braz, Jorge Luiz e Diego; Ygor, Andrade (Abedi), Morais e Ramon; Edílson e Valdiram.
Técnico: Renato Gaúcho.

Fluminense
Fernando Henrique; Thiago Silva, Roger e Thiago; Rogério, Romeu (Ângelo), Arouca, Petkovic e Marcelo; Lenny e Tuta.
Técnico: Oswaldo de Oliveira.

*Well Flu is much better side IMHO in this one, but this is big game for both sides, and Vasko have perfect H2H on their stadium. But I will listen my gut on this one. So 3 bets for this matchup...

Prediction:
Over 2.5 @1.73 Easybets 5/10
Fluminense AH0:0 @1.84 Pointbet 5/10
Fluminense @2.70 Bet365 2/10

[Djordje]

great stuff again, Milos

[Milos NS]

Parana Clube - Gremio


*It' plain and simple about Parana. I will play UNDER on them every single game in this championship and Copa and they will give me decent profit. It's just problem that bookies are already cuting odds, but don't worry...One or two overs on Parana matches and odds will be again great over @2.10.... Last season they had 65% unders or more, I forgot but they made me a little fortune....

*Parana coach, Caio Júnior, have a lot of problems for this game. 5 players are injured: Maicossuel and Sandro, midlefielder Neguette, attacker Leonardo, and right lateral Goiano. Still coach will play in his favorite formation 3-6-1 again. Good news is that goalkeeper Flavio is back from injury.

*Gremio sowed that they are ready for serie A this season. For this game they are stronger for three new players: William, Rudnei and Valdeir. No big injury or suspension problems for coach Mano Menezes. Gremio will play in defensive 4-5-1 formation.

*Probable squads:
Paraná
Flávio; Émerson, Gustavo e Edmílson; Angelo, Beto, Mussamba, Batista e Edinho; Gérson e Zumbi.
Técnico: Caio Júnior.

Grêmio
Galatto; Patrício, Evaldo, Pereira e Wellington; Jeovânio, Lucas, Alessandro, Marcelo Costa e Hugo; Ricardinho (Pedro Júnior).
Técnico: Mano Menezes

Prediction:
Under 2.5 @2.05 Easybets 5/10

[3hree]

FT		Parana [5 - 2] Gremio
13'	[1 - 0]	Cristiano
16'	[2 - 0]	Alessandro (o.g.)
26'	[2 - 1]		Hugo
35'	[3 - 1]	V.A.d.S. Beto
53'	[3 - 2]		Lucas
59'	[4 - 2]	Angelo
80'	[5 - 2]	Emerson

Hope you didn't get punished by this mate, sure you can make it up in the games that have just kicked off

[Milos NS]

Parana 5-2
Fluminense 1-1
Gimnasija LP 3-3

Well it was one of these days for me... sorry guys

[3hree]

Some cruel results there mate, OAH on Flu meant stake back however, Gim vs RP was a nonsense game, 2-2 after 88 mins, 3-3 after 90?! Gremio game was just one of them!
You'll bounce back mate

[meatman]

look at me yesterday with 4/4 losers in France

we both know we'll be back mate