Some Useful info about under/over 2.5 goal

[the cleaner]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

Yes, all three game ended over 2.5 goal.
Do you understand what i mean now ?
Or must i more predict to explaining what i mean ?

Yes. I would like you to explain your system a little further.

1. How do you pick the games?

If both teams have gone over in the past more times than all the other teams in that league, that's trivial. Probably the best candidate that time.

But where do you draw the line? How do you rank your games?
Which one of the games in hand is the most certain to go over in a specific round and which ones are the least favourite to do that? Why? Which is the last game you'd qualify to bet over on and why? What kind of calculative system do you use or is it just an heuristic valuation done in your head?

2. When you have decided which games to include in betting, how do you calculate the value?

Let's say you have three games of which you are sure they'll go over. How do you valuate them against given odds? In other words does you ranking change compared to question #1 depending on the given odds, or not? If it does, please give an example how.

GL luck on your system, you got a flying start if anything.

[ksk1912]

I will try next week from every league predict one game.

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by the cleaner

Yes. I would like you to explain your system a little further.

1. How do you pick the games?

If both teams have gone over in the past more times than all the other teams in that league, that's trivial. Probably the best candidate that time.

But where do you draw the line? How do you rank your games?
Which one of the games in hand is the most certain to go over in a specific round and which ones are the least favourite to do that? Why? Which is the last game you'd qualify to bet over on and why? What kind of calculative system do you use or is it just an heuristic valuation done in your head?

2. When you have decided which games to include in betting, how do you calculate the value?

Let's say you have three games of which you are sure they'll go over. How do you valuate them against given odds? In other words does you ranking change compared to question #1 depending on the given odds, or not? If it does, please give an example how.

GL luck on your system, you got a flying start if anything.

1-First step never look to the value before you predict,you can lost your neutrality.
2-Statistics investigation (about under/over)
3- I look to the each other games result(how many time they play under/over)
4-Search to latest team news (İnjury or suspended player or Financial problem) all this infos can effect my decision.
5-look to the past year statistic about under/over.
6-look to the present season statistic (how many time they play in home/away - under/over).
7-And finaly i need little luck and trust yuor feel.

ok,now i will give one example ;

Atletico Paranaense - Botafogo

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
12 Atletico Paranaense			6	13		5	13
16 Botafogo			9	10		10	9

Each other ;

12/08/2004 Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense
19/12/2004 Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Botafogo
29/05/2005 Botafogo 2-0 Atletico Paranaense
22/09/2005 Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Botafogo
29/04/2006 Botafogo 0-4 Atletico Paranaense

This season statistic ;
overal home
11 Atletico Paranaense 20 8 3 9 29 26 27 +3 9 5 1 3 13 8 16 +5
overal away
12 Botafogo 21 6 9 6 28 25 27 11 1 7 3 8 10 10 -2


Now,my decision is UNDER.
I dont no is this a system or not,but mostly it work.
My hope is with a few new idea we can made it maybe better,who now...

[the cleaner]

ksk1912: Thx for your reply. Don't get me wrong. My reason to ask was not to criticize your system but to understand it more deeply.

Now I know the framework of your analysis.
What happens inside that framework?

For example: (the numbers are from your post)

2. Statistic investigation

Atletico Paranaense - Botafogo

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
12 Atletico Paranaense			6	13		5	13
16 Botafogo			9	10		10	9

So, in this game in question home under is 6 + 10 = 16 and home over is 13 + 9 = 22, or what? And if it is so, how "much" does this piece of information lead you thinking the game will go under? or over?

3- I look to the each other games result(how many time they play under/over)

12/08/2004 Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense
19/12/2004 Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Botafogo
29/05/2005 Botafogo 2-0 Atletico Paranaense
22/09/2005 Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Botafogo
29/04/2006 Botafogo 0-4 Atletico Paranaense

In this case there are four games out of five that have gone under and one that has gone over. What does this mean? Under I guess, but how "much" would this "promote" the under result? Do the results count (1-0 is "more" under than 1-1)? How much more? Is the result 1-1 being played 2004 "less" under then 2-0 played in 2005? or more? And - how "much" less or more?

After these two pieces of your analysis, is this game now under or over, and how "much" in respective direction?

4-Search to latest team news (İnjury or suspended player or Financial problem) all this infos can effect my decision.

If the home team has their lead scorer suspended, does this mean "more" under? And again how "much" more? What is the situation now? under or over? and how much more? What other similar situations are you considering in this category?

5-look to the past year statistic about under/over.
6-look to the present season statistic (how many time they play in home/away - under/over)

And how do these steps (and what specifically in them) in their turn effect the fact that this game is going to be under?

Ok, I stop here. You probably got my drift now? And understand what I am after? I want to now how each step of your analysis works, what is included in a certain step, what are the reasons and how are they measured, which gradually lead to the conclusion that this game in hand will go under? Or is it just so that you know (or guess) that these and these situations are such that the safest conclusion would be to assume under (or over)? These kind of "situations" would be valuable knowledge too as investigating them further would maybe lead to a specific, profitable model of under/over betting.

Thx for your patience, just want this one to be spick 'n span too.
(no dizz intended to our Spanish-American friends)

[ksk1912]

[quote=the cleaner]ksk1912: Thx for your reply. Don't get me wrong. My reason to ask was not to criticize your system but to understand it more deeply.


Atletico Paranaense - Botafogo ;
1-If i look this season result to both team i see they play much much better in defens.

	This season	Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
12 Atletico Paranaense			5	4
16 Botafogo						9	2

2-They have to many potential to play under 2.5 in each other game.
3-I look to the pas stats,i want find up what they have do in pas and i can
find up more easly wich one point they change in team.In this both team i see
they change the defens mentality,they play surely better in defens zone.
4-If any team have important injury or suspended i chance my all idea about
the game.Mostly i go out from bet.its hard to say what will go on.
This is a fresh idea i can not say however good it work or however wrong.
I can say by my personal bet it work 70 %...
I'm allways open to the new idea,this is the reason why i'm shared my work here
i will complete this system with other good idea to get more success.
Every new idea can help to get this system more faultless.
This system is a ptototype if we give to head to head we can cretive a new system
for all members.

[ksk1912]

Atletico Paranaense 0 - 5 Botafogo
Half time: 0 - 4

24' (0 - 1) Lino
Cristian 28' (Red Card-Atletico Paranaense)
38' (0 - 2) Reinaldo
42' (0 - 3) Reinaldo
44' (0 - 4) Ze Roberto
90' (0 - 5) Lima


So, i iwas wrong ok but not totaly.
Athletico have see red card 28 minute that iwas the breakpoint of game.
We can see after the red card Botofago break up the game.
second half of the game was better both team play very careful,as we wait in the beginning.

[ksk1912]

ENGLAND CL

Barnsley - Stoke City	under
Birmingham - Hull City	over
Burnley - Colchester	under	C
Coventry - Norwich City	under	C
Derby County - Sunderland	over
Ipswich Town - Southampton	over
Leeds United - Wolverhampton	under	C
Luton - Crystal Palace	over	C
Plymouth - Queens P.R.	under
Preston - Cardiff	over
Southend - Sheffield Wednesday	under
West Bromwich - Leicester City	under	C

C : My most favorite

[ksk1912]

PREMİER LEAGUE :

Arsenal - Middlesbrough	over	C
Bolton - Watford	under
Chelsea - Charlton	under	C
Everton - Liverpool	over
Manchester Utd. - Tottenham	under	C
Newcastle United - Fulham	over
Portsmouth - Wigan	under	C
Reading - Manchester City	under
Sheffield United - Blackburn	over	C
West Ham - Aston Villa	over

C : My most favorite

[Ante]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

PREMİER LEAGUE :

what is this C???thanks

[safucukk]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

PREMİER LEAGUE :

how evaluated the everton/liverpool gamke as a draw??? this is a derby worldwide known and both teams really fighting

[ksk1912]

[quote=ksk1912]PREMİER LEAGUE :

Arsenal - Middlesbrough	over	C
Bolton - Watford	under
Chelsea - Charlton	under	C
Everton - Liverpool	over
Manchester Utd. - Tottenham	under	C
Newcastle United - Fulham	over
Portsmouth - Wigan	under	C
Reading - Manchester City	under
Sheffield United - Blackburn	over	C
West Ham - Aston Villa	over

C : My most favorite[/quote

Everton 3-0 Liverpool Arsenal 1-1 Middlesbrough Bolton 1-0 Watford Chelsea 2-1 Charlton N.cast 1-2 Fulham P.mouth 1-0 Wigan S.Utd 0-0 Blackburn M.Utd. 1-0 Tottenham
W.Ham 1-1 A.Villa