Some Useful info about under/over 2.5 goal

[libi71]

Great info, thx for compiling.

How are you using this historic data for your punts? Let's say, two high-scoring teams play against each other, how are you going to determine what would be a good price/fair odds? How are you taking changed circumstances into account (like a team sold its two best strikers)?

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Aalborg			11	6		9	8
2 Brondby			4	13		10	7
3 Fc Cobenhagen			9	8		10	7
4 FC Nordsjaelland			7	10		8	9
5 Odense			8	9		10	7
6 Midtjylland			9	8		7	10
7 Esbjerg			7	10		10	7
8 Randers FC		30 Game	8	7		5	10	League 2
9 Horsens			12	5		9	8
10 Viborg			9	8		5	12
11 Silkeborg			10	7		10	7
12 Vejle		30 Game	6	9		7	8	League 2

[psilocybin]

Nice stats, but I don't believe under/over 2.5 goals is team-specific!

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by libi71

Great info, thx for compiling.

How are you using this historic data for your punts? Let's say, two high-scoring teams play against each other, how are you going to determine what would be a good price/fair odds? How are you taking changed circumstances into account (like a team sold its two best strikers)?

Thanks for the question libi.
First,i Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,i compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then i give my decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

[psilocybin]

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

[psilocybin]

A little example:
For the 2004-2005 season every single game Feyenoord played at home went over 2.5 goals. But last season they only 9 overs from 17 games. Backing them based on the previous season's data would have proved disastrous, especially when you consider the odds on the over - probably averaging between 1.6 and 1.8

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

Of course i have used internet to get this infos.but its not to easy organize all info together.

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

A little example:
For the 2004-2005 season every single game Feyenoord played at home went over 2.5 goals. But last season they only 9 overs from 17 games. Backing them based on the previous season's data would have proved disastrous, especially when you consider the odds on the over - probably averaging between 1.6 and 1.8

First,Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then give your decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

[psilocybin]

Maybe you would be kind enough to throw a few examples up here for us to show us exactly what you mean?

[libi71]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

First,Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then give your decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

I don't have any special way. I asked, because I have been burned in the past with the over/under, which I did consider easier to judge back then.
I am always interested to hear how other punters come to their conclusion. I for myself (not betting on over/under at the moment), am basically not looking at historic data at all, I am more trying to imagine how the match might evolve, what are the tactics, is one line dominating another (here, some historic data might be useful: e.g. one attacker from GC used to score plenty of goals against Basel for years, uggh, how we hated that guy).
My problem is that this way works quite good for my domestic league (which I know in and out, over 70% strike rate and about 40% yield this year), but I cannot scale it up to other leagues because of time constraints.

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

Ok,why not.
Follow my pics.

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Trelleborg			6	9		11	4
2 Brommapojkarna			6	9		5	10
3 Orebro			8	7		8	7
4 Norrkoping			7	8		5	10
5 Landskrona			11	4		6	9
6 Falkenbergs FF			9	6		6	9
7 Jönköpings Södra			no info	no info		no info	no info
8 Degerfors			9	6		8	7
9 Ljungskile			8	7		11	4
10 Atvidaberg			8	7		9	6
11 Vasby United			7	8		9	6
12 Assyriska			10	5		8	7
13 Sundsvall			7	8		8	7
14 Mjallby			5	10		5	10
15 Umea FC			no info	no info		no info	no info
16 Qviding			no info	no info		no info	no info

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Honka			5	8		8	5	League 2
2 Tampere United			7	6		7	6
3 Haka			8	5		8	5
4 Hjk			7	6		7	6
5 TPS Turku			8	5		8	5
6 Lahti			5