Some Useful info about under/over 2.5 goal

[libi71]

Great info, thx for compiling.

How are you using this historic data for your punts? Let's say, two high-scoring teams play against each other, how are you going to determine what would be a good price/fair odds? How are you taking changed circumstances into account (like a team sold its two best strikers)?

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Aalborg			11	6		9	8
2 Brondby			4	13		10	7
3 Fc Cobenhagen			9	8		10	7
4 FC Nordsjaelland			7	10		8	9
5 Odense			8	9		10	7
6 Midtjylland			9	8		7	10
7 Esbjerg			7	10		10	7
8 Randers FC		30 Game	8	7		5	10	League 2
9 Horsens			12	5		9	8
10 Viborg			9	8		5	12
11 Silkeborg			10	7		10	7
12 Vejle		30 Game	6	9		7	8	League 2

[psilocybin]

Nice stats, but I don't believe under/over 2.5 goals is team-specific!

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by libi71

Great info, thx for compiling.

How are you using this historic data for your punts? Let's say, two high-scoring teams play against each other, how are you going to determine what would be a good price/fair odds? How are you taking changed circumstances into account (like a team sold its two best strikers)?

Thanks for the question libi.
First,i Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,i compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then i give my decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

[psilocybin]

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

[psilocybin]

A little example:
For the 2004-2005 season every single game Feyenoord played at home went over 2.5 goals. But last season they only 9 overs from 17 games. Backing them based on the previous season's data would have proved disastrous, especially when you consider the odds on the over - probably averaging between 1.6 and 1.8

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

Of course i have used internet to get this infos.but its not to easy organize all info together.

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

A little example:
For the 2004-2005 season every single game Feyenoord played at home went over 2.5 goals. But last season they only 9 overs from 17 games. Backing them based on the previous season's data would have proved disastrous, especially when you consider the odds on the over - probably averaging between 1.6 and 1.8

First,Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then give your decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

[psilocybin]

Maybe you would be kind enough to throw a few examples up here for us to show us exactly what you mean?

[libi71]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

First,Check the infos from the teams 2006/2007 season,and look to the historic info (each other games in past).Next step,compare it with infos from 2005/2006 and then give your decision about under/over 2.5 goal.
I can say its work % 70 - % 80. If you have any other way please
shared it with us.

I don't have any special way. I asked, because I have been burned in the past with the over/under, which I did consider easier to judge back then.
I am always interested to hear how other punters come to their conclusion. I for myself (not betting on over/under at the moment), am basically not looking at historic data at all, I am more trying to imagine how the match might evolve, what are the tactics, is one line dominating another (here, some historic data might be useful: e.g. one attacker from GC used to score plenty of goals against Basel for years, uggh, how we hated that guy).
My problem is that this way works quite good for my domestic league (which I know in and out, over 70% strike rate and about 40% yield this year), but I cannot scale it up to other leagues because of time constraints.

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Did you get this information from a Web site? I know of a site that offers these stats, but I can't think of it at the moment.

Ok,why not.
Follow my pics.

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Trelleborg			6	9		11	4
2 Brommapojkarna			6	9		5	10
3 Orebro			8	7		8	7
4 Norrkoping			7	8		5	10
5 Landskrona			11	4		6	9
6 Falkenbergs FF			9	6		6	9
7 Jönköpings Södra			no info	no info		no info	no info
8 Degerfors			9	6		8	7
9 Ljungskile			8	7		11	4
10 Atvidaberg			8	7		9	6
11 Vasby United			7	8		9	6
12 Assyriska			10	5		8	7
13 Sundsvall			7	8		8	7
14 Mjallby			5	10		5	10
15 Umea FC			no info	no info		no info	no info
16 Qviding			no info	no info		no info	no info

[ksk1912]

		Home	UNDER	OVER	Away	UNDER	OVER
1 Honka			5	8		8	5	League 2
2 Tampere United			7	6		7	6
3 Haka			8	5		8	5
4 Hjk			7	6		7	6
5 TPS Turku			8	5		8	5
6 Lahti			5	8		6	7
7 IFK Mariehamn			9	4		4	9
8 Mypa			5	8		8	5
9 VPS			6	7		6	7
10 KooTeePee			6	7		7	6
11 KuPS Kuopio			4	9		5	8
12 Jaro			10	3		7	6
13 Inter Turku			9	4		9	4

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by libi71

I don't have any special way. I asked, because I have been burned in the past with the over/under, which I did consider easier to judge back then.
I am always interested to hear how other punters come to their conclusion. I for myself (not betting on over/under at the moment), am basically not looking at historic data at all, I am more trying to imagine how the match might evolve, what are the tactics, is one line dominating another (here, some historic data might be useful: e.g. one attacker from GC used to score plenty of goals against Basel for years, uggh, how we hated that guy).
My problem is that this way works quite good for my domestic league (which I know in and out, over 70% strike rate and about 40% yield this year), but I cannot scale it up to other leagues because of time constraints.

Thanks libi, i'm in same mean with you not all but some historic data might be useful.
Next week i will try how good or how bad this infos work.
Past week i have some good result with this infos ;

		Selection	Result
Charlton - Bolton		under	ok
Crystal Palace - Burnley		under	error
Hull - Coventry		under	ok
Southampton - Preston		under	ok
Wolverhampton - Luton		under	ok
Sheffield Wedne - Leeds Utd		under	ok

	Selection	Result
Liverpool - West Ham	over	ok
Charlton - Bolton	under	ok
Fulham - Sheffield United	over	error
Tottenham - Everton	under	ok
Watford - Manchester Utd.	over	ok
Wigan - Reading	under	ok
Manchester City - Arsenal	under	ok
Aston Villa - Newcastle United	under	ok
Blackburn - Chelsea	under	ok
Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	over	ok

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Maybe you would be kind enough to throw a few examples up here for us to show us exactly what you mean?

Vasco de Gama - Ponte Preta

over

Botafogo - Parana

over

Goias - Fluminense

over

Now, this is my first predict about this league.
We will see what will happen, i put little money for this tree game.

[ksk1912]

Goias 3 - 1 Fluminense over ok.

now we look to the other games.

[maj69er]

KSK well done with this...In 2 weeks etc i will have up to date correct data at hand for goals etc and other info..I will get it over to you as my friend you have gone to all this effort to collect data....

BOL with this.......

Majid

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by psilocybin

Maybe you would be kind enough to throw a few examples up here for us to show us exactly what you mean?

Yes, all three game ended over 2.5 goal.
Do you understand what i mean now ?
Or must i more predict to explaining what i mean ?

[ksk1912]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

Now, this is my first predict about this league.
We will see what will happen, i put little money for this tree game.

Botafogo 4 - 0 Parana
Vasco de Gama 2 - 2 1 Ponte Preta
Goias 3 - 1 Fluminense

[dana22]

Originally Posted by ksk1912

Botafogo 4 - 0 Parana
Vasco de Gama 2 - 2 1 Ponte Preta
Goias 3 - 1 Fluminense

maybe you can make this predictions every week?? or every match day?

thanks mate..in turkish *saol babacim..