Serie A still fixed?

[wolvesfan]

now dont think im a bitter loser, i back both of these examples, and won


reggina the other day. out of form vs a decent side, were about 2.2 to win i think. about 500k matched on betfair 450k on reggina.

last night.

parma to win. 400k on match 380k on parma. who are out of form vs a decent side in palermo. went down to 10 men, went 1-0 up, then 1-1, then red palermo. 86th min parma winner.

calligari to win about 400k match again, most on calligari. out of form team. won 1-0 with away team getting red card

[Valderrama11]

I don't know whether it's fixed or not, but the fact is because of its history it wouldn't matter if it were clean, people would still think it was fixed and find examples like yours above.
Much the same probably happens on other leagues but because the history isn't there no-one bats an eyelid.

[nicko]

Originally Posted by wolvesfan

now dont think im a bitter loser, i back both of these examples, and won


reggina the other day. out of form vs a decent side, were about 2.2 to win i think. about 500k matched on betfair 450k on reggina.

last night.

parma to win. 400k on match 380k on parma. who are out of form vs a decent side in palermo. went down to 10 men, went 1-0 up, then 1-1, then red palermo. 86th min parma winner.

calligari to win about 400k match again, most on calligari. out of form team. won 1-0 with away team getting red card

Fixing games could still be routine, but Italy is no different from most countries. The examples above have logic explanations - Palermo are far from decent side as first they have no Euro ambitions whatsoever. Simply check some funny statements by their Chairman in the last 2 years, he clearly indicated UEFA Cup is not good for him, risking for example two legs with a team from Georgia or Azerbaidjan. Parma have now 4 great forwards and fight relegation - if Dukes winning vs Palermo is a fix, then Energie beating Bayern is what???? The case with Cagliari and Reggina is similar, Aquafresca is wanted by two nations now and a great number of top clubs, playing in Sardenia is never being easy, and it won't be, the club just plays better after the break. Now Reggina being close to Sicily could possibly be accused of having a couple of ''donors'' fighting survival, but then Catania is also fighting relegation??? If all the clubs mentioned are part of a scheme, what have we got left? Torino, Livorno, Siena, but going through the recent results then it must be a conspiracy against Livorno and Torino, as Siena beating Fiore could also be in the basket with the surprises...
IMO Italy in the spotlight is going way over the top - their FA at least had the decency to reveal the fixing to the world BIG TIME, punished heavily clubs with great traditions and budgets and the things are getting better and better, no wonder Italy has a lot more goals scored this season - goals are the cream of the game and what the people buy season tickets for. How long the refs in Germany were in the press for after revealing certain connections with the mob few years ago? Certainly less time than Italy match fixing...

[nicko]

Mind you, in the post above I am clearly defending the Italian football for 2 reasons. First, the only major Euro league that openly penalised match fixing so far is Italy, and it has happened before too. Second, this season watching Italy 1 is often much more entertaining than other top Euro leagues, just check average goals per game so far, it is amazing how quickly it changed from 1-1 and 1-0 to 4-4, 3-5, 3-3, 5-1, 3-2 etc. Except for the hateful Inter, all top teams lost games to relegation candidates..
Still, today there are a couple of ''funny'' games, especially the one in Reggina which I wouldn't touch for the world.

[Toronto_Mike]

well i was on Parma pretty big that game and quite honestly the writings were on the wall.

What does Palermo have to play for anyways. It really isn't a matter of form and what not at this current time it is really the relationship between clubs and just how much they have to offer each other. Palermo are out of UEFA Cup contention, it is already known that Amauri is a wanted man so they will cash in on his sale. The way I see it, a lot of these smaller clubs can easily just discuss financial terms to pay off other clubs to let them win. These "Sporting Directors" aren't stupid. You have to be fairly good at socializing and manipulating other contacts in the industry.
The way I see it, if a middle of the table team is on the road vs a relegation battler, and the home team is a favorite around the 2.00 - 2.35 mark, I'd play the home team from here on out. Case in point, Reggina tomorrow vs Napoli.
Go figure a team that is in 18th place, playing a middle table team in Napoli who have arguably the hardest month in all of Serie A, is still favored? Sounds to me like a set up is it not? Probably middle of or beginning of the season we would of seen a different set up with probably Napoli being slight favorites. These odds makers aren't going to make it too obvious with the lines around 1.7ish or 1.6ish, they want you to second guess yourself and attract the amateur bettor into the highest odds possible.
This is just my point of view and from my past experience. But sooner or later you are going to the Draws, a key example could possibly occur when Livorno play host to Siena. Of course it depends how the build up to it turns out. But should both teams be tied on point or 1 point off each other, I can only assume they will settle for a draw.

[vitalyo]

Well they fixed them for the last How many years???

Why would this year be a different ?

The odds for the draw between Siena vs Parma are dropping by a minute .
365 has them @ 2.60 for a draw .2-3 hours ago they had them @ 2.90.

GL.

[KurtFurtmustahl]

talking about the fixing only god knows the reason of some really "interesting" results in hungary, former yugoslavia and whole eastern and southern european region football leagues...goals in injury time in every second match..penalty kicks in 90+, strange red cards for visitors etc etc
if something comes out everybody consider it is a rumour not worth a penny...but sometimes...

[vitalyo]

Originally Posted by KurtFurtmustahl

talking about the fixing only god knows the reason of some really "interesting" results in hungary, former yugoslavia and whole eastern and southern european region football leagues...goals in injury time in every second match..penalty kicks in 90+, strange red cards for visitors etc etc
if something comes out everybody consider it is a rumour not worth a penny...but sometimes...

How about re kicking penalty 3 times?
Because player didn't score on first 2 attempts..
LOL.

[KurtFurtmustahl]

wow!! hadn´t heard about this one vitalyo..where did it happen?! thats some fixi sheit!!!

[nicko]

Reggina and Napoli, as well as Siena and Parma proved us wrong again, fair results in Italy this weekend by all means!! Catania defended like hell, Juve brought the suspense back in Serie A, AC Milan as a rule play better away this season, Genoa winning in Palermo is no surprise at all, just look at their recent away results....
Match fixing is way too limited in Italy now. Which team would risk big time losing the money Juve lost in just one season in Serie B ??? Certain games - yes, might be fixed, but the routine we had a couple of years ago, with Italy in the spotlight.... It just becomes same as any other league imo...

[Papa Lazarou]

No question that something is up when, as with the Atalanta Catania game yesterday, over half the stake on Betfair was on the draw and the final score is 0-0. It's much more normal to see a max of 10% of all bets on the draw even in very tight games.
The trouble is, I've seen similar patterns in the past, lumped on only to find a twist in the tail. I'm guessing that there are "real" fixes and then bluff ones. The way the latter would work I'm not sure, but presumably if a syndicate knew a match was going a certain way they could "talk up" a contrary result by betting it (laying it themselves also, therefore no loss) and then spreading the rumour of a fix on the internet so that mugs like me then invest in what looks like a certain result but which is already a foregone conclusion.

I believe that Betfair should do a lot more in terms of reporting strange betting patterns and the eventual outcomes to punters like ourselves, but as usual they're too busy raking it in.

[nicko]

Originally Posted by Papa Lazarou

No question that something is up when, as with the Atalanta Catania game yesterday, over half the stake on Betfair was on the draw and the final score is 0-0. It's much more normal to see a max of 10% of all bets on the draw even in very tight games.
The trouble is, I've seen similar patterns in the past, lumped on only to find a twist in the tail. I'm guessing that there are "real" fixes and then bluff ones. The way the latter would work I'm not sure, but presumably if a syndicate knew a match was going a certain way they could "talk up" a contrary result by betting it (laying it themselves also, therefore no loss) and then spreading the rumour of a fix on the internet so that mugs like me then invest in what looks like a certain result but which is already a foregone conclusion.

I believe that Betfair should do a lot more in terms of reporting strange betting patterns and the eventual outcomes to punters like ourselves, but as usual they're too busy raking it in.

Great post as I also traced some patern, a rumour of a fix is growing like an avalanche, it starts with small time bettors but it generates volume big enough to consider a certain pick. Bookies could also manipulate such interest easy. My solution is to avoid these games - if there is a fix a good tip is missed, but by experience more often it goes wrong. The last warning I read in PL was a game in Hungary, where a MTK win was down to 1,25 which I wanted to use in a combo, a member called KurtFurtmustahl warned everyone on time, and guess what - a typical 90th min goal by the guests to make it 1-1...I could have followed, the double chance was over 2,5, but why do I need to shake and sweat in front of the livescore monitor betting against the arguably strongest team in Hungary which I've never seen playing?
My point is clear - Italy is no worse than any other country at the moment, or rather no better. Recent results show much more goals, Serie A is in the spotlight big time, every Chairman will think twice now... On the other hand what people need to fix a game is not necessary the whole team - 2 or 3 important players would do...Saw a Russian game more than a year ago, Spartak needed to win away to stay along CSKA, Pogrebnyak scored deep into the second half, expected away win... Then an African guy, a sub who obviously was not part of the scheme, equalised in 95th min for hosts. This was the one and only time I saw in 35 years watching football when the goalscorer not only did not get any congratulations - the camera clearly showed that the guy got badly and discreetly hit by some of his team mates What do I know....?????

[gemini63]

It's good to sometimes looking at these top flight matches at a fixed match type of angle before we bet.

I would think most of the clubs needed lots of money some how or rather to pay wages to the whole organization. TV right and gate collection barely enough to cover expenses to the premier league, serie a, la liga middle ranking teams. where is the dividends for shareholder and directors? and tax free as well...

what would u do if you are the shareholder and owner of the club to seek extra income? no doubt, its from the bookmakers. however, these would serve as a double sword because the bookmakers probably will take the lead to organize these matches.

they know who we gonna bet on especially when we see a value bet. Bookmakers would very likely take a big sum, the remaining would go to the shareholder and owner of the club from betting with/against their own team.

this is especially the case why most of the favorites draw or loose to an underdog team. if i would fix the match, i would tell the two team to either draw or let the underdog win. think about the pay out of 1x2 odds, draw pay 4.50 underdog win 10.50 etc...

the bookmakers not worry about the winning from the outcome of fixed matches because the money are coming from you and me, not their bank account.

i drop in a quote here cos i see this a very interesting topic and there are a lot of beliefs and disbeliefs about the subject when discussed.

soccer gambling is a huge industry, when it comes to big money there bound to be manupulation.

i recently strike a parlay of 8 teams after i learned the bookmakers code that provide football tips | soccer betting tips
from www.bookmakers-code.net its expensive though, the author charge $168 for it. i bought it cos its expensive unlike most selling below $60.i find it useful cos the book help me to spot potential fixed match odds.

check it out if you really believe match fixing do exists.

[BetBouncer]

I do a lot of football prediction using mathematical models and so i can get a pretty unbiased view of which leagues are the least and most predictable.

It will surprise absolutely nobody that for many seasons the most unpredictable league using a number of criteria including betting profitability is Serie A. Serie B and French Ligue 2 are also very difficult to predict well mathematically. Serie C1 is not too bad.

People on these forums always talk about the fixing in Eastern European leagues but many of the most predictable leagues I've worked on (in terms of correlations between expected and actual goals, for example, as well as betting profitability) are in Eastern Europe. My returns in Eastern Europe are much better than in Western Europe, I just have a problem with volumes.