Portuguese - Liga Bwin (22nd - 24th Aug 08)

[littleacca]

Friday 22 August 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Vit. Guimarães v Vit. Setúbal (20:30BST)	2.05	3.30	4.20	102.89 %	Details »
Hide « Vit. Guimarães v Vit. Setúbal
Saturday 23 August 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Paços de Ferreira v Braga (18:15BST)	3.50	3.20	2.37	101.93 %	Details »
Hide « Paços de Ferreira v Braga
Sporting v Trofense (20:45BST)	1.25	5.60	15.00	104.52 %	Details »
Hide « Sporting v Trofense
Sunday 24 August 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Estrela v Académica (16:00BST)	2.25	3.20	3.50	104.27 %	Details »
Hide « Estrela v Académica
Leixões v Nacional (17:00BST)	2.40	3.20	3.15	104.66 %	Details »
Hide « Leixões v Nacional
Naval 1º de Maio v Marítimo (17:00BST)	2.50	3.20	3.00	104.58 %	Details »
Hide « Naval 1º de Maio v Marítimo
FC Porto v Belenenses (19:15BST)	1.33	4.75	11.50	104.75 %	Details »
Hide « FC Porto v Belenenses
Rio Ave v Benfica (21:15BST)	5.75	3.60	1.66	105.17 %	Details »
Hide « Rio Ave v Benfica

[zigoto]

From www.portuguese-picks.com


Guimarães vs Setúbal
Date: 22 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Setúbal +0.5
Odds: 1.88
Stake: 7/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
First of all sorry for the early picks, but I will be away in the weekend. There is 4 picks, so dont forget them during tomorrow, saturday and sunday.

This game will be the first of the new season, and itself this is a good factor for the pick. We all now that is much easier to destroy plays, than to build them, and as we start as winners in this pick, we are favoured from the beggining. Also, we have to take in consideration that the attack is now the weakest link in Guimarães team, and the defence the better part of Setúbal team.

After last season, when Guimarães had Ghilas and Alan to build their attacking plays and to carry the ball to the front, this year they only have the players that were in the bench last season. There\'s a downtrend in quality, and we could see that in the game against Basel, where only Desmarets builded some attacks. Also, in the few times that the ball gets in the attack, Guimarães strikers dont get the right way for them. Both Jean Coral and Douglas are new in the team, but they are still in adaptation, after coming from brazilian slow football, and they still have to prove more quality.

If we look at Setubal defence, we have last year base, with the good duo Auri and Robson in the center, Janicio as right defender, and there\'s only a new player, Chyssoko, that must be good to put last season starter in the bench. So we have the same defence that only received 33 goals last season. Also the midfield is the same than last season, with Elias, Ricardo Chaves and Sandro making a great trio, and as they played together many games, they almost play with eyes closed between them. The team will play in 4-4-2 diamond, with Mateus as playmaker.

This formation will create problems to Guimaraes, as with Fajardo as winger, their game will be send to the middle. But Setubal will not only defend, and Mateus is great player to assist the fast Bruno Gama and the skilled Laionel. They are great players for counter-attack, and they will create lots of problems to Moreno, that is a adapted central defender and to Gregory, a tall but slow player. When they dont have the ball, Laionel and Bruno Gama will have the mission to cover the wingerbacks of Guimaraes, kicking out the only way the hosts could get to use the wings.

Also Guimaraes will have the most important game of the season next start of the week, with the possibility of being qualified for Champions for the first time in their lives, and its impossible that the players dont think on it.

We have this good odd because of Guimaraes great performance last season, but they are weaker now, and they certainly wont have the same luck, winning 7 or 8 games by 1-0. Last season this same game were played in 18 August and the result was 1-1. I expect the same thing.




Paços de Ferreira vs Braga
Date: 23 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Braga -0.25
Odds: 2.02
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
Paços de Ferreira was relegated last season, and they are only in the first league now because Boavista was relegated for corruption. Still, Paços de Ferreira only knew they will play first league some weeks ago, and 95% of their squad was made to play on second league. This can be a problem, because if they were relegated, and they dont have more quality now, why not to have the same destiny?

They bought Tatu, Bruno Conceição, Kelly and Ricardo, that are nice players for second league, but I see them as no more than average for first league. So they have that reinforcements, what could be good. But the bad thing is that they lost Wesley (their playmaker, best scorer, best player and so on), Luis Carlos (their best central defender) and Peçanha (their keeper for some seasons).

So they arent better than last season, and if they lost 17 games last season, they will lose 15 this one. And I expect one of them to be on saturday. Braga has the better squad, excluding Benfica, Sporting and Porto, that I saw in Portugal in the last 10 years. They just bought the best players playing in Portugal outside the 3 big clubs, catching Académica best player, Marítimo best player, and so on... So now they have lots of quality, and they almost could make 2 competitive teams.

I bet with you that if Paços de Ferreira could choose from Braga bench, at least 75% of them would be on Paços first team. There is a big quality in quality, and also in rhytim of play. Braga are already going for their 5th official game, going 5-0-0 with 10-0 in goals. Sadly for us, their worst game was against Mostar, where we lost some units, but in the next game they made a huge exhibition winning 4-0. So they have the quality and the stamina to win 2-0. Take Braga.




Porto vs Belenenses
Date: 24 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Porto -1
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Sportingbet

Comment:
Porto didnt make a big impression in the start of the season, losing 2-0 in the supercup with Sporting. But dont get a wrong impression, they didnt played bad. They created some chances, they wasted a penalty and they even dominated big part of the game. But it wasnt their day, and with 2 defensive mistakes, they gave the game away.

Now Porto get back home, where they were 13-1-1 with 33-4 in goals last season. So, as you can see, the Dragon Stadium is a fortress, and sunday, the fortress will be full of eager supporters, that want to be compensated for the lost in Supercup.

Porto players arent used to lost, and everytime they do it, in the next game they do a big comeback. Comeback is also a key word for Tarik and Mariano Gonzalez, 2 players that will be back on the team, and that will allow Lisandro to be back on his striker position. This makes Porto attack way stronger than against Sporting, where Farias didnt impressed, and also Mariano will cover better their wing, helping Sapuranu that made the mistake that give the win to Sporting.

Belenenses had a good team. And I say had because they just killed it. Rodrigo Alvim, Hugo Alcantara, Rolando, Ruben Amorim and Weldon were the base of the team, and now they arent not there. Insted of them, Belenenses bought a pack of 10 brazilians, that are still to prove why are they here.

The pre-season results were bad, the first official game were bad and theres no big hopes for the first matches of the season, before the new players adaptation to the european football. So Porto has the quality, has the home factor, has the motivation and will have the win.



Rio Ave vs Benfica
Date: 24 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Benfica -0.75
Odds: 1.89
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
Rio Ave is a newcomer in this league. Normaly the first round against this type of teams are hard, even more when they play at home. But oops, Rio Ave is only going to play at home in the way they know better the closets than Benfica players, because 80% of the stadium will be full of Benfica supporters. Also Rio Ave isnt a great team at home, they make regular results, but they dont make their stadium a fortress.

So they are coming to the first league, but they came with the same players they have last year. There was no real reinforcements, with only 4 new players coming from lower leagues and one player coming loaned from Benfica youngsters. In my opinion, they dont have more quality than last season, and this will be a problem for them during the season.

Their pre-season was good in terms of results. They won some games, the sad thing is that they prefered to play against amateurs, than to make real tests to the team. For example, in their last match, they played against the 5th league Fão and won only 1-0, playing awfully.

Rio Ave has other big problem, they are a old team: Mateus has 32 yo, Evandro 34, Niquinha 36, Gaspar 33, Rogério Matias 33, Bruno Mendes 32, etc... They werent great players even when they were young, so I cant see them being good enough for first league now. On the other side we will have the young and fresh Benfica team.

After many problems with injuries and bad shape last season, Benfica has now a great physical coach, and the players already show great form and stamina for this phase of the season. Also Benfica, after a bad season, is now way better. They have now Pablo Aimar, Jose Antonio Reyes, Yebda, Carlos Martins and so on, that makes the potential of the team very big. Benfica in the pre-season made good games, winning to PSV and drawing to Inter for example, and the trio Aimar-Cardozo-Reyes will be eager to start making goals.

Also Benfica defence, that was bad last season, is now in a good trend without suffering goals, and I cant see Rio Ave scoring. Take Benfica.

[Naza Man]

That is really great picks Sir

[Djalmha]

I can see a under in today match, Guimaraes last season won many matches with 1-0 CS and if you say that they are minus offensive power... and if Setubal defence is a good one...

we can play at under in this match?

Any opinions in portuguese football?

Greetings and thanks for great job !

[nunoco]

Guimarães-Setubal


A difficult game to predict,but i think that Setubal wont loose this game.
Guimarães lost 2 important players(Alan and Ghillas). They have done a bad pre-season,and not impressed in champions league game against Basel. Setubal have done a regular pre-season,has a new coach,and some new players in atack.(Brasilian Leandro Lima is on loan from Fc Porto).The defence stills strong so...

Setubal - Double Chance (small stakes)

[zigoto]

Originally Posted by Djalmha

I can see a under in today match, Guimaraes last season won many matches with 1-0 CS and if you say that they are minus offensive power... and if Setubal defence is a good one...

we can play at under in this match?

Any opinions in portuguese football?

Greetings and thanks for great job !

Yes, my friend, the under is also a good bet.

At the time the attack is the worst part of both teams...

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by zigoto

Yes, my friend, the under is also a good bet.

At the time the attack is the worst part of both teams...

Good to see you back Zigoto.
Good luck my friend (they all look good to me just not so sure about Porto -1...)!



JC

[sharpshot7]

Welcome back JCtips and zigoto

Here's hoping for another good money making season in portugal

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

Welcome back JCtips and zigoto

Here's hoping for another good money making season in portugal

Thanks sharpshot7 !

Well, Zigoto started very well hitting his 1st bet of the season (well done Zigoto)!
Let's do it again this season...



JC

[JCtips]

My picks for Saturday:

Paços Ferreira-Braga
Paços de Ferreira is usually a hard place to play away with the small pitch and the crowd supporting the home team but it is a small trip for Braga and they should get some support from their fans as well.
Paços de Ferreira was actually relegated last season and ended up staying in the 1st division as Boavista was relegated in their place after being charged with bribery by the Portuguese Federation.
Braga I expect to have a great season and there's too much of a quality difference here.
Paços will fight for the result but with more or less difficulty Braga should win this one.
My pick: Braga (2.27);

Sporting-Trofense
Sporting are again one of the three title contenders in Portugal and at home they rarely lose any points under coach Paulo Bento (it's away from home that they struggled last season).
Trofense will be playing their 1st ever 1st division match away against one of the big clubs in the country. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the players take their cameras to take some pictures and also a book to ask Sporting's players for some autographs. I expect them to struggle all season long away from home and the only reason why I don't take a higher handicap is because they (Trofense) actually have a decent coach, Sporting will miss top striker Liedson and in the last 4 seasons Sporting's 1st game in the league was always at home, they won them all but only last year it was by more than a 1 goal margin. So, I'll take it easy here.
My pick: Sporting -1.5 AH (1.83);

Good luck!

JC

[zigoto]

Guimarães 1-1 Setúbal. Bet won.



Dont forget for tomorrow:

Paços de Ferreira vs Braga
Date: 23 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Braga -0.25
Odds: 2.02
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
Paços de Ferreira was relegated last season, and they are only in the first league now because Boavista was relegated for corruption. Still, Paços de Ferreira only knew they will play first league some weeks ago, and 95% of their squad was made to play on second league. This can be a problem, because if they were relegated, and they dont have more quality now, why not to have the same destiny?

They bought Tatu, Bruno Conceição, Kelly and Ricardo, that are nice players for second league, but I see them as no more than average for first league. So they have that reinforcements, what could be good. But the bad thing is that they lost Wesley (their playmaker, best scorer, best player and so on), Luis Carlos (their best central defender) and Peçanha (their keeper for some seasons).

So they arent better than last season, and if they lost 17 games last season, they will lose 15 this one. And I expect one of them to be on saturday. Braga has the better squad, excluding Benfica, Sporting and Porto, that I saw in Portugal in the last 10 years. They just bought the best players playing in Portugal outside the 3 big clubs, catching Académica best player, Marítimo best player, and so on... So now they have lots of quality, and they almost could make 2 competitive teams.

I bet with you that if Paços de Ferreira could choose from Braga bench, at least 75% of them would be on Paços first team. There is a big quality in quality, and also in rhytim of play. Braga are already going for their 5th official game, going 5-0-0 with 10-0 in goals. Sadly for us, their worst game was against Mostar, where we lost some units, but in the next game they made a huge exhibition winning 4-0. So they have the quality and the stamina. Take Braga.

[modo]

Hello,hello Portugal monsters of bet

[dak]

Pacos Ferrreira -Braga: Braga Win @ 2.10 (Stan James) 6/10

Yes, I can't see how a division 2 team (as Pacos should have been this season) will be able to get anything from Braga who competes at the European level (and respectably at that!!). A price over evens is very good value here. Braga should win this game on their roster's quality.

[zigoto]

Originally Posted by zigoto

From www.portuguese-picks.com

Paços de Ferreira vs Braga
Date: 23 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Braga -0.25
Odds: 2.02
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
Paços de Ferreira was relegated last season, and they are only in the first league now because Boavista was relegated for corruption. Still, Paços de Ferreira only knew they will play first league some weeks ago, and 95% of their squad was made to play on second league. This can be a problem, because if they were relegated, and they dont have more quality now, why not to have the same destiny?

They bought Tatu, Bruno Conceição, Kelly and Ricardo, that are nice players for second league, but I see them as no more than average for first league. So they have that reinforcements, what could be good. But the bad thing is that they lost Wesley (their playmaker, best scorer, best player and so on), Luis Carlos (their best central defender) and Peçanha (their keeper for some seasons).

So they arent better than last season, and if they lost 17 games last season, they will lose 15 this one. And I expect one of them to be on saturday. Braga has the better squad, excluding Benfica, Sporting and Porto, that I saw in Portugal in the last 10 years. They just bought the best players playing in Portugal outside the 3 big clubs, catching Académica best player, Marítimo best player, and so on... So now they have lots of quality, and they almost could make 2 competitive teams.

I bet with you that if Paços de Ferreira could choose from Braga bench, at least 75% of them would be on Paços first team. There is a big quality in quality, and also in rhytim of play. Braga are already going for their 5th official game, going 5-0-0 with 10-0 in goals. Sadly for us, their worst game was against Mostar, where we lost some units, but in the next game they made a huge exhibition winning 4-0. So they have the quality and the stamina to win 2-0. Take Braga.

Won. 2-0.

[maksim20]

quality picks mate

[zigoto]

Very good pick on Sporting, JC...

Didnt knew if we would see the Trofense of first half, when they played like youngsters because where the first time in first league, or the Trofense of the second half, where they created problems to Sporting and showed potential, so I stayed out...

[zigoto]

Dont forget for tomorrow...

Originally Posted by zigoto

From www.portuguese-picks.com


Porto vs Belenenses
Date: 24 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Porto -1
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Sportingbet

Comment:
Porto didnt make a big impression in the start of the season, losing 2-0 in the supercup with Sporting. But dont get a wrong impression, they didnt played bad. They created some chances, they wasted a penalty and they even dominated big part of the game. But it wasnt their day, and with 2 defensive mistakes, they gave the game away.

Now Porto get back home, where they were 13-1-1 with 33-4 in goals last season. So, as you can see, the Dragon Stadium is a fortress, and sunday, the fortress will be full of eager supporters, that want to be compensated for the lost in Supercup.

Porto players arent used to lost, and everytime they do it, in the next game they do a big comeback. Comeback is also a key word for Tarik and Mariano Gonzalez, 2 players that will be back on the team, and that will allow Lisandro to be back on his striker position. This makes Porto attack way stronger than against Sporting, where Farias didnt impressed, and also Mariano will cover better their wing, helping Sapuranu that made the mistake that give the win to Sporting.

Belenenses had a good team. And I say had because they just killed it. Rodrigo Alvim, Hugo Alcantara, Rolando, Ruben Amorim and Weldon were the base of the team, and now they arent not there. Insted of them, Belenenses bought a pack of 10 brazilians, that are still to prove why are they here.

The pre-season results were bad, the first official game were bad and theres no big hopes for the first matches of the season, before the new players adaptation to the european football. So Porto has the quality, has the home factor, has the motivation and will have the win.



Rio Ave vs Benfica
Date: 24 aug 08
Time: 00:00 CET

Sport: Football
Pick: Benfica -0.75
Odds: 1.89
Stake: 8/10
Bookie: Pinnacle

Comment:
Rio Ave is a newcomer in this league. Normaly the first round against this type of teams are hard, even more when they play at home. But oops, Rio Ave is only going to play at home in the way they know better the closets than Benfica players, because 80% of the stadium will be full of Benfica supporters. Also Rio Ave isnt a great team at home, they make regular results, but they dont make their stadium a fortress.

So they are coming to the first league, but they came with the same players they have last year. There was no real reinforcements, with only 4 new players coming from lower leagues and one player coming loaned from Benfica youngsters. In my opinion, they dont have more quality than last season, and this will be a problem for them during the season.

Their pre-season was good in terms of results. They won some games, the sad thing is that they prefered to play against amateurs, than to make real tests to the team. For example, in their last match, they played against the 5th league Fão and won only 1-0, playing awfully.

Rio Ave has other big problem, they are a old team: Mateus has 32 yo, Evandro 34, Niquinha 36, Gaspar 33, Rogério Matias 33, Bruno Mendes 32, etc... They werent great players even when they were young, so I cant see them being good enough for first league now. On the other side we will have the young and fresh Benfica team.

After many problems with injuries and bad shape last season, Benfica has now a great physical coach, and the players already show great form and stamina for this phase of the season. Also Benfica, after a bad season, is now way better. They have now Pablo Aimar, Jose Antonio Reyes, Yebda, Carlos Martins and so on, that makes the potential of the team very big. Benfica in the pre-season made good games, winning to PSV and drawing to Inter for example, and the trio Aimar-Cardozo-Reyes will be eager to start making goals.

Also Benfica defence, that was bad last season, is now in a good trend without suffering goals, and I cant see Rio Ave scoring. Take Benfica.

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My picks for Saturday:

Paços Ferreira-Braga
Paços de Ferreira is usually a hard place to play away with the small pitch and the crowd supporting the home team but it is a small trip for Braga and they should get some support from their fans as well.
Paços de Ferreira was actually relegated last season and ended up staying in the 1st division as Boavista was relegated in their place after being charged with bribery by the Portuguese Federation.
Braga I expect to have a great season and there's too much of a quality difference here.
Paços will fight for the result but with more or less difficulty Braga should win this one.
My pick: Braga (2.27); won

Sporting-Trofense
Sporting are again one of the three title contenders in Portugal and at home they rarely lose any points under coach Paulo Bento (it's away from home that they struggled last season).
Trofense will be playing their 1st ever 1st division match away against one of the big clubs in the country. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the players take their cameras to take some pictures and also a book to ask Sporting's players for some autographs. I expect them to struggle all season long away from home and the only reason why I don't take a higher handicap is because they (Trofense) actually have a decent coach, Sporting will miss top striker Liedson and in the last 4 seasons Sporting's 1st game in the league was always at home, they won them all but only last year it was by more than a 1 goal margin. So, I'll take it easy here.
My pick: Sporting -1.5 AH (1.83); won

Good luck!

JC

Great way to start the Portuguese season

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by modo

Hello,hello Portugal monsters of bet

Hi modo!

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by zigoto

Very good pick on Sporting, JC...

Didnt knew if we would see the Trofense of first half, when they played like youngsters because where the first time in first league, or the Trofense of the second half, where they created problems to Sporting and showed potential, so I stayed out...

Thanks Zigoto !

Didn't have a chance of watching the game but I watched the highlights and it went as predicted.
You're right, it surely sounded like Trofense wasn't there in the 1st half (I guess the players were taking a look at the Stadium and enjoying the view... ).



JC