Portugal - SuperLiga (Feb 1-4)

[davidmphill]

Friday 1 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Estrela v Braga (20:30GMT)	3.55	3.15	2.44	101%	Details »
Hide « Estrela v Braga
Saturday 2 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
FC Porto v União de Leiria (19:15GMT)	1.20	7.40	25.00	101%	Details »
Hide « FC Porto v União de Leiria
Benfica v Nacional da Madeira (21:15GMT)	1.40	4.85	11.00	101%	Details »
Hide « Benfica v Nacional da Madeira
Sunday 3 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Académica v Marítimo (16:00GMT)	2.50	3.20	3.00	105%	Details »
Hide « Académica v Marítimo
Boavista FC v Paços de Ferreira (16:00GMT)	1.98	3.60	4.60	100%	Details »
Hide « Boavista FC v Paços de Ferreira
Vitória de Guimarães v Leixões (16:00GMT)	1.66	3.50	5.80	106%	Details »
Hide « Vitória de Guimarães v Leixões
Belenenses v Sporting (19:30GMT)	3.75	3.25	2.12	105%	Details »
Hide « Belenenses v Sporting
Monday 4 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Vitória de Setúbal v Naval 1º de Maio (19:45GMT)	1.85	3.50	5.50	101%	Details »

[JCtips]

My first pick of the weekend in Portugal:

Benfica-Nacional
Benfica had a terrific and hard 1-3 away win against Guimarães last week and got a (short) confidence boost out of it and also from the fact that Porto (now 8 points ahead of Benfica) lost their game away to Sporting.
If Benfica wants to still have a shot at the title this season they have to win home games like the one tomorrow...no room for mistakes.
Benfica just signed Portuguese International striker Ariza Makukula who will be a big boost for them in terms of fire power upfront but Makukula is not available for tomorrow ("strange" local rules say that a week as to go by after a player has been register at a new club before he can play...so, Makukula will not be in the team tomorrow...).

Nacional is a hard team to beat and that is proven IMO with the fact that they have 2-3-4 away record and 8 unders out of 9 away league games (the only over was a 1-3 victory in Leiria) so far this season. That shows that even when they lose it's a close call.
They also brought in some new players in during the winter break (winger and under-20 Portuguese International F. Coentrao on loan from Benfica and a few more Brazilians) but they had IMO a HUGE loss: they sold Swiss International Keeper Diego Benaglio to German club Wolfsburg for 1.5 Million Euros. Benaglio was their main keeper (an excellent one) over the last 3 seasons and the other keepers have no playing time at this level.
That can make a difference tomorrow.

My pick: home -1.25AH (Asian Handicap)

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My first pick of the weekend in Portugal:

Benfica-Nacional
Benfica had a terrific and hard 1-3 away win against Guimarães last week and got a (short) confidence boost out of it and also from the fact that Porto (now 8 points ahead of Benfica) lost their game away to Sporting.
If Benfica wants to still have a shot at the title this season they have to win home games like the one tomorrow...no room for mistakes.
Benfica just signed Portuguese International striker Ariza Makukula who will be a big boost for them in terms of fire power upfront but Makukula is not available for tomorrow ("strange" local rules say that a week as to go by after a player has been register at a new club before he can play...so, Makukula will not be in the team tomorrow...).

Nacional is a hard team to beat and that is proven IMO with the fact that they have 2-3-4 away record and 8 unders out of 9 away league games (the only over was a 1-3 victory in Leiria) so far this season. That shows that even when they lose it's a close call.
They also brought in some new players in during the winter break (winger and under-20 Portuguese International F. Coentrao on loan from Benfica and a few more Brazilians) but they had IMO a HUGE loss: they sold Swiss International Keeper Diego Benaglio to German club Wolfsburg for 1.5 Million Euros. Benaglio was their main keeper (an excellent one) over the last 3 seasons and the other keepers have no playing time at this level.
That can make a difference tomorrow.

My pick: home -1.25AH (Asian Handicap) lost

Good luck!

JC

Had a small profit in Football/Soccer today but things are just not going my way in the Portuguese League lately (it happens).
Just watched the last 40m of the game and Benfica should have won it but they just don't score (Makukula will be a great addition to the team once he starts playing).

Better luck tomorrow.

JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today in Portugal:

Belenenses-Sporting
Lisbon derby tonight.
Belenenses is a good team in the Portuguese league with a good coach (Jorge Jesus).
Their home league record is 4-4-1 so far this season and, according to their coach, they're aiming at reaching the 5th place in the table (they're currently 8th 3 points behind 5th place).
IMO they had some good sign ups in January (striker Jankauskas will still not play tonight) but their biggest decision was not to let anyone out despite a few nice offers they had to let some players go abroad.
They're also in a crisis situation as the entire board resigned but that's expected to be all solved next wednesday. Actually, the team showed a lot of character in their last game out away to Braga (a tough one).

Sporting is a mess: fans, board, coach nobody seems to tolerate one another despite a few good results lately (great result against Porto, the other victories came against lowly clubs).
Also, the club president said recently that coach Paulo Bento has all his confidence (and we all know that when that happens the coach is on his out soon...).
Sporting had an extremely lucky win last weekend against Porto. They were completely outplayed (Porto had 61% ball possession and a lot of scoring chances...but it just wasn't their day) and scored the winning goals out of two mistakes (the 1st one on a ridiculous mistake by the Porto keeper, the 2nd one a clear linesman mistake). Football is somtimes like that...but I don't see them "hitting the lottery" twice.
Tonight they'll be without their best defender and in form Brazilian International centre back Anderson Polga and their most in form player midfielder Simon Vukcevic is also doubtful.

In the past 10 seasons these teams met 9 times at "Estádio do Restelo" with Belenenses having a 2-3-4 record and also with 7 unders and 2 overs.

My picks: Belenenses PK and <2.5;

Good luck!

JC

[modo]

Yes Janke old wolf and I believe that he help Belenenses club to play better.

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by modo

Yes Janke old wolf and I believe that he help Belenenses club to play better.

Hi modo.
I agree, Jankauskas is a strong and skilled striker and will surely help Belenenses get even better scoring goals (that's what he does well).
He still disn't play tonight (just like Makukula fo Benfica yesterday, because of the rules...).

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today in Portugal:

Belenenses-Sporting
Lisbon derby tonight.
Belenenses is a good team in the Portuguese league with a good coach (Jorge Jesus).
Their home league record is 4-4-1 so far this season and, according to their coach, they're aiming at reaching the 5th place in the table (they're currently 8th 3 points behind 5th place).
IMO they had some good sign ups in January (striker Jankauskas will still not play tonight) but their biggest decision was not to let anyone out despite a few nice offers they had to let some players go abroad.
They're also in a crisis situation as the entire board resigned but that's expected to be all solved next wednesday. Actually, the team showed a lot of character in their last game out away to Braga (a tough one).

Sporting is a mess: fans, board, coach nobody seems to tolerate one another despite a few good results lately (great result against Porto, the other victories came against lowly clubs).
Also, the club president said recently that coach Paulo Bento has all his confidence (and we all know that when that happens the coach is on his out soon...).
Sporting had an extremely lucky win last weekend against Porto. They were completely outplayed (Porto had 61% ball possession and a lot of scoring chances...but it just wasn't their day) and scored the winning goals out of two mistakes (the 1st one on a ridiculous mistake by the Porto keeper, the 2nd one a clear linesman mistake). Football is somtimes like that...but I don't see them "hitting the lottery" twice.
Tonight they'll be without their best defender and in form Brazilian International centre back Anderson Polga and their most in form player midfielder Simon Vukcevic is also doubtful.

In the past 10 seasons these teams met 9 times at "Estádio do Restelo" with Belenenses having a 2-3-4 record and also with 7 unders and 2 overs.

My picks: Belenenses PK and <2.5; won&won

Good luck!

JC

[American Locksmith]

JCtips, looking at Setubal tonight at just over evens? this seems like good value. Setubal is a pretty strong team while Naval seem poor. What do you think about this game?

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by American Locksmith XXX

JCtips, looking at Setubal tonight at just over evens? this seems like good value. Setubal is a pretty strong team while Naval seem poor. What do you think about this game?

Hi American Locksmith XXX,

Here's my analysis/pick:

Setúbal-Naval
Setúbal is a better team and plays at home but they lost two of their main strikers during January (Matheus, their best player went back to Braga as he was on loan at Setúbal and Edinho was sold to Greek club AEK).
They still have good players upfront and hired as a replacement a young player who was doing great in the 2nd division (one of the best scorers there).
Naval is a mediocre team with a good coach and they will be fighting to avoid relegation.
Naval is recent to the 1st division so these teams met only 7 times (both home and away games with two of those games in the 2nd division 4 season ago) in the last decade. From those 7 games 5 went over the total.
Setúbal also scored in 8 of their last 10 games while NAval scored in 7 of their last 10.
I see value in picking the over 2.
My pick: over 2

Good luck!

[American Locksmith]

Originally Posted by JCtips

Hi American Locksmith XXX,

Here's my analysis/pick:

Setúbal-Naval
Setúbal is a better team and plays at home but they lost two of their main strikers during January (Matheus, their best player went back to Braga as he was on loan at Setúbal and Edinho was sold to Greek club AEK).
They still have good players upfront and hired as a replacement a young player who was doing great in the 2nd division (one of the best scorers there).
Naval is a mediocre team with a good coach and they will be fighting to avoid relegation.
Naval is recent to the 1st division so these teams met only 7 times (both home and away games with two of those games in the 2nd division 4 season ago) in the last decade. From those 7 games 5 went over the total.
Setúbal also scored in 8 of their last 10 games while NAval scored in 7 of their last 10.
I see value in picking the over 2.
My pick: over 2

Good luck!

Thanks JC, will play on the over as well. I see tonight the weather should be ideal.

[American Locksmith]

Good call on the over JC thankfully you will minimize my loss for tonight. Setubal punched with 2 goals and didn't have enough to recover. Good pick and congrats on the over

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by American Locksmith XXX

Good call on the over JC thankfully you will minimize my loss for tonight. Setubal punched with 2 goals and didn't have enough to recover. Good pick and congrats on the over

You're welcome American Locksmith XXX !
I'm always glad to be able to make a contribution.

Originally Posted by JCtips

Hi American Locksmith XXX,

Here's my analysis/pick:

Setúbal-Naval
Setúbal is a better team and plays at home but they lost two of their main strikers during January (Matheus, their best player went back to Braga as he was on loan at Setúbal and Edinho was sold to Greek club AEK).
They still have good players upfront and hired as a replacement a young player who was doing great in the 2nd division (one of the best scorers there).
Naval is a mediocre team with a good coach and they will be fighting to avoid relegation.
Naval is recent to the 1st division so these teams met only 7 times (both home and away games with two of those games in the 2nd division 4 season ago) in the last decade. From those 7 games 5 went over the total.
Setúbal also scored in 8 of their last 10 games while NAval scored in 7 of their last 10.
I see value in picking the over 2.
My pick: over 2 won

Good luck!

Good thing to be back on track in the Portuguese league this weekend as the last 2 or 3 didn't go as well as before.
Setúbal new hire young forward Bruno Severino that I mention earlier on did score Setúbal's goal...bad result for Setúbal but a good debut for the kid in the Superliga.



JC