Portugal - Superliga (28-31 March 08)

[meatman]

Friday 28 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Vitória de Guimarães v Marítimo (20:30GMT)	1.82	3.60	5.60	101%	Details »
Hide « Vitória de Guimarães v Marítimo
Saturday 29 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Estrela v Académica (16:00GMT)	2.23	3.25	3.75	102%	Details »
Hide « Estrela v Académica
Sunday 30 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Braga v Leixões (16:00BST)	1.57	3.75	6.80	105%	Details »
Hide « Braga v Leixões
Nacional da Madeira v União de Leiria (16:00BST)	1.57	3.75	7.00	105%	Details »
Hide « Nacional da Madeira v União de Leiria
Belenenses v FC Porto (19:00BST)	4.75	3.40	1.82	105%	Details »
Hide « Belenenses v FC Porto
Naval 1º de Maio v Sporting (19:15BST)	4.65	3.40	1.84	105%	Details »
Hide « Naval 1º de Maio v Sporting
Benfica v Paços de Ferreira (21:15BST)	1.25	5.50	13.00	106%	Details »
Hide « Benfica v Paços de Ferreira
Monday 31 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Vitória de Setúbal v Boavista FC (19:45BST)	2.27	3.25	3.75	101%	Details »

[JCtips]

My bet for today in Portugal:

Guimarães-Maritimo
These teams have very similar quality and value.
IMO the main difference between them, which is shown in the table, is that Maritimo had far too many injuries after 5 or 6 rounds and Guimarães didn't.
Guimarães have been playing very good football all season long but the team is "stretched" as they have no bench and have been using the same players all season...I expect them to go down a bit in the table until the end of the season (they're currently above their quality level IMO).
...Maritimo is getting most of their players back and, despite still having a few players out tonight, that should improve the team and the results as they're looking for a UEFA Cup place in the table.
My pick: away +0.5AH/+1AH (Asian Handicap);

Good luck!

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bet for today in Portugal:

Guimarães-Maritimo
These teams have very similar quality and value.
IMO the main difference between them, which is shown in the table, is that Maritimo had far too many injuries after 5 or 6 rounds and Guimarães didn't.
Guimarães have been playing very good football all season long but the team is "stretched" as they have no bench and have been using the same players all season...I expect them to go down a bit in the table until the end of the season (they're currently above their quality level IMO).
...Maritimo is getting most of their players back and, despite still having a few players out tonight, that should improve the team and the results as they're looking for a UEFA Cup place in the table.
My pick: away +0.5AH/+1AH (Asian Handicap); Lost/push

Good luck!

JC

1-0 with a 88th minute goal...
...better luck tomorrow.

JC

[JCtips]

My bet for today:

Amadora-Académica
Amadora scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
Académica scored in 4 of their last 5 away games.
These teams met 4 times in the last 10 years in Amadora with all games going "over".
My pick: over 2.5;

Good luck!

JC

[sharpshot7]

31 minutes to come in

Well done JC

[modo]

JC, Naval - Sporting Lisbon ?

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

31 minutes to come in

Well done JC

Thanks sharpshot7 !
At 2.53 it was very nice indeed ...that, together with two correct draw picks in Italy really made my day a very nice one ...

Originally Posted by modo

JC, Naval - Sporting Lisbon ?

Hi modo.

I'll look into that game in more detail later on or tomorrow morning and will post my opinion even if I don't bet on it.



JC

[JCtips]

My bets for today in Portugal:

Benfica-P. Ferreira
Benfica has not won a home league game in 2008!
This is a rare thing for the club and I think they'll get it tonight against a lowly P. Ferreira team but the odd seems far too low.
This is only the 7th season of P. Ferreira in the 1st division and in the previous 6 meetings at "Estádio da Luz" Benfica lost the 1st one 2-3 and won the other five (4-0, 7-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1), meaning Benfica always scored at least 2 goals at home against P. Ferreira.
So far this season in the league, P. Ferreira has only 1 clean sheet in 11 games.
I see several goals being scored tonight and will take the "over" bet.
My pick: over 2.5;

Belenenses-Porto
Belenenses coach Jorge Jesus said it all: Porto has the better players and the better team but when it comes to tactics he's a better coach and his team is better than Porto...I know it sounds strange but I agree, Belenenses is IMO the best team in Portugal when it comes to tactics.
Belenenses is a hard team to play against and tactics is their strong point mainly against top teams.
They lost their last two home matches against Boavista and Maritimo, but have already defeated both Benfica and Sporting this season at home.
I expect a tight and tactical game.
My pick: draw;

Naval-Sporting
Both teams desperately need points and need a win here.
Naval plays at home and wants to avoid relegation.
Sporting plays away and wants to keep their hopes of staying in the top 3 alive.
Paulo Bento's 1st game as Sporting coach a few seasons ago was away to Gil Vicente (also trying to avoid relegation at the time) with Ulisses Morais (current Naval coach) as the opponent coach...final result was 2-2.
I think the draw is very likely tonight as Sporting's weekness this season is the away matches with a very poor 2-4-6 away league record so far.
My pick: draw;

Good luck!

JC

[lurie]

sorry but your picks are redicilous.....
you're just looking for the value without looking into the game.
draw at sporting and porto? no way!

[megabrusk]

Originally Posted by lurie

sorry but your picks are redicilous.....
you're just looking for the value without looking into the game.
draw at sporting and porto? no way!

mate nobody forces you to play bets ...

if you dont like the picks dont call the picks ridicilous ...

and if u got better idea ..write it here ...

[sharpshot7]

Originally Posted by lurie

sorry but your picks are redicilous.....
you're just looking for the value without looking into the game.
draw at sporting and porto? no way!

LoL you obviously have'nt followed JCTIPS much this season !!

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by megabrusk

mate nobody forces you to play bets ...

if you dont like the picks dont call the picks ridicilous ...

and if u got better idea ..write it here ...

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

LoL you obviously have'nt followed JCTIPS much this season !!

It OK guys, no worries...every forum seems to have a couple of people who like to waste their time with this type of posts instead of making a contribution.
I'm not wasting my precious time with it, that's for sure...



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My bets for today in Portugal:

Benfica-P. Ferreira
Benfica has not won a home league game in 2008!
This is a rare thing for the club and I think they'll get it tonight against a lowly P. Ferreira team but the odd seems far too low.
This is only the 7th season of P. Ferreira in the 1st division and in the previous 6 meetings at "Estádio da Luz" Benfica lost the 1st one 2-3 and won the other five (4-0, 7-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1), meaning Benfica always scored at least 2 goals at home against P. Ferreira.
So far this season in the league, P. Ferreira has only 1 clean sheet in 11 games.
I see several goals being scored tonight and will take the "over" bet.
My pick: over 2.5; won

Belenenses-Porto
Belenenses coach Jorge Jesus said it all: Porto has the better players and the better team but when it comes to tactics he's a better coach and his team is better than Porto...I know it sounds strange but I agree, Belenenses is IMO the best team in Portugal when it comes to tactics.
Belenenses is a hard team to play against and tactics is their strong point mainly against top teams.
They lost their last two home matches against Boavista and Maritimo, but have already defeated both Benfica and Sporting this season at home.
I expect a tight and tactical game.
My pick: draw; lost

Naval-Sporting
Both teams desperately need points and need a win here.
Naval plays at home and wants to avoid relegation.
Sporting plays away and wants to keep their hopes of staying in the top 3 alive.
Paulo Bento's 1st game as Sporting coach a few seasons ago was away to Gil Vicente (also trying to avoid relegation at the time) with Ulisses Morais (current Naval coach) as the opponent coach...final result was 2-2.
I think the draw is very likely tonight as Sporting's weekness this season is the away matches with a very poor 2-4-6 away league record so far.
My pick: draw; lost

Good luck!

JC

GREAT day overall (including Italy and Spain I went 3-3-0 with a very nice profit) in soccer today but I surely feel like I was robbed big time in the Belenenses-Porto game.
I always say that there are factors nobody can predict and ref mistakes is one of them...game was 1-1 with 10 seconds to go in injury time (ref gave 3 minutes) and Quaresma (Porto star player) milked it big time and pulled a penalty against Belenenses...and I lost my draw bet which would have paid awsome money...



JC