Portugal - Superliga 15 - 17,18,19 e 20 Dez

[Aquiles]

Hello all,
According to my statistics these are the best picks for Portuguese Superliga:

1X2, Correct Score and Under/Over
---Fri, 17/12
FC Porto 2 / 0 Moreirense Under
---Sat, 18/12
Benfica 2 / 0 Penafiel Over
Sp. Braga 1 / 1 Boavista Over
---Sun, 19/12
Marítimo 1 / 0 Rio Ave Under
V.Setúbal 1 / 0 U. Leiria Under
Gil Vicente 1 / 1 Estoril Under
Nacional 1 / 1 Belenenses Under
Académica 1 / 1 Beira-Mar Under
---Mon, 20/12
V. Guimarães 1 / 1 Sporting Under

News:
- Beira-Mar coach, Manuel Cajuda, has left the club!

[kk_ghost]

Hi Aquiles! Can you please explain how do your picks work? I mean if you think Benfica will win with a correct score of 2-0, why do you suggest betting on over in the same match?

KK_

[pmadeiras]

Hi I'm portuguese and my certain win bets are on Porto, Benfica and Maritimo.

I think also, althought Belenenses victory over Benfica, Nacional is terrible on their field and they will win

[Aquiles]

Originally Posted by kk_ghost

Hi Aquiles! Can you please explain how do your picks work? I mean if you think Benfica will win with a correct score of 2-0, why do you suggest betting on over in the same match?

KK_

Hi kk Ghost,
thanks for the post.

Statistics are statistics and are only one pointer. Combining the probabilities of one and another teams to score the bigger % is this. But other results have probabilities ( % ) very close and this space is small to place everything.
2/0 - 12.2 %
2/1 - 9.6 %
3/0 - 9.1 %

[aa421]

Aquiles / pmadeiras

How certain are you about Porto tonight?

I like to bet on short odds matches but Porto have been an expensive let-down for me twice already this season. Porto's away form has been much better than their home form and their recent loss to Beira Mar was particularly painful.

Has anything happened that has dramatically changed Porto in the last few weeks? If not, I can't see that Porto are value at 1.20.

Thanks
AA

[fgee]

aquiles i cant believe anyone follows your statistics
in the uefa thread u predicted one correct score out of about 8 games
whatever u derive from the stats they dont seem very reliable or predictable
id appreciate it if you'd explain fully how it works..ie is it a software program etc etc

[bagehot]

Has anything happened that has dramatically changed Porto in the last few weeks?

Well, AA, obviously it has. Porto beat Chelsea to qualify for the CL last 16 and last Sunday lifted the Intercontinental Cup. So obviously there's much more confidence in the side.

Costinha misses the match through suspension. Baia is back after being forced to leave the match in Yokohama early on.

Porto have a game less than Boavista who of course lead the table. They need to win tonight and on Wednesday at Marítimo to make sure they climb to the top spot again.

I strongly believe Porto will win tonight and if you can get anything above 1.20 then I wouldn't put you off punting on Porto.

Probable lineup: Baía; Seitaridis, Jorge Costa, Pedro Emanuel, Ricardo Costa; Bosingwa, Maniche, Diego, Derlei; McCarthy and Luís Fabiano.

[Aquiles]

Originally Posted by fgee

aquiles i cant believe anyone follows your statistics
in the uefa thread u predicted one correct score out of about 8 games
whatever u derive from the stats they dont seem very reliable or predictable
id appreciate it if you'd explain fully how it works..ie is it a software program etc etc

One of these days I explain with details. Every day work to improve.
To make right in the correct score are very complicated therefore odds are high. In the European competitions I only made right 1 in 8. It was not good but 2 in 8 already it gave profit, already it was good. For already my suggestion it is to go following the tips 1X2 and Under/Over. I write just a little text therefore I have much difficulty with English.
Today I gave a good tip for the game of Porto (1X2 and Under). It seems me good.
Thanks for write to me.

[Galea78]

Braga V Boavista X @3.20
Braga are a difficult team to beat this year again and I feel have the defence required to hold out a team already lacking in goals despite excellent statistical form. fixture was 0-0 last year and this year i expect 1-1. (1-1)

FT 3-0 Only took small stakes but Braga making Boa look like the average side they are IMO.

Benfica V Penafiel 1 (-1) @1.85
Benfica must make up for that awful first half performance last round verses the very entertaining Belenenses, Trapattoni decided to rotate the squad slight and it failed - he also played a stand 2up formation, which can IMO work well but Belenenses have just too much fire power - perhaps he should have stuck with 5 in midfield? Benfica hav enow 6 first team players missing but still i believe them to be far too strong for this newly promoted side whose recent good run was ended last round by Guimarães. Players out for Bendfica include. Zahovic, Miguel, Ricardo Rocha, Luisão, Paulo Almeida, Everson & Nuno Gomes. Last game of 2004 in the Estádio da Luz and a must win. for safety stick to home win but 1.33 does nothing for me. (4-0)

FT 1-0 A nice win, wasted plenty of chances and those like me that took that handicap miss out - sorry

Maritimo V Rio Ave 1 @1.80
I think this is a nice price for a home win considering Maritimo's form is actually very good despite a run of draws and poor performances in the last few games. The home record despite these recent games is still strong Marítimo 6 4 2 0, 10/3 and Rio are not so strong on their travels, they had a nice draw in Lisbon which was annoying but that was a one of those times were a poorer side raises game for big side. Gil Vicente made short work of them and i expect Maritimo to do the same. (3-1)

FT 1-1 Late qualiser, Rio have a ability to come back in any situation and did it again, unexpected for sure.

Gil Vicente V Estoril 1 @1.80
Under new management Gil have really improved and are now only beaten 1 times in 6 outings and although i will keep my stakes small due to this draw factor that comes with playing to battling sides i think home win again. (2-0)

FT 2-0 another top result for Gil and correct score for Galea...

Academica V Beira-Mar X2 @1.60
I really am not sure on this one - Academica are really fighting every week and you just can not be sure what to expect, away side are poor enough to lose here but hav ethe slightly stronger squad and a 0-1 win here last year which for me gives them the edge. (0-1)

FT 1-1 not much dif than expected, perhaps Academica might feel a little unlucky

Nacional V Belenenses X2 @1.57 & Over2.5 @1.95
Nacional are widely thought of as one of the most obvious Home win sides with Brasilian like statistics for home wins and away defeats but recent weeks have seen 2 draws and a defeat at home and a distinct lack of goals, no digrace in losing to Leiria or drawing with Maritimo and i expect Nacional to score tomorrow. Belenenses are really becoming a goal scoring side and a couple of goals here it might be hard to see home side pulling it around to win be a 1-2 or 1-3 result would not be unlikely. with cover on my predicted score of 2-2 X2 and over for me. (2-2)

FT 2-0 Well you just never now what team will come out for Belenenses but a red card in the 70th min did not help. all on Leiria to keep my stats up...

Setubal V Leiria 2 @3.20
I am an admirer of Leiria and the football they play - come along way since i saw them grinding out 0-0 draws last season, they had good pre season and i have been suprised not to see them in top 6 but recent form for me is earning them a place in that part of the league, 2 away wins in recent weeks and i think a third one here against the wobbling Setubal. (1-2)

FT 1-1

Guimaraes V Sporting X @3.20
I would normally back Sporting in this game on every occassion and @ over 2.00 it would appear great value however Guimaraes are playing well and picking up points and with Sporting not long back from sunny Newcastle i can not right the home side off. (1-1)

FT 2-4 :o

Thats my thoughts (score predictions in brackets) - good luck with your bets

[jtw1]

After reading posts here and on other sites i have bet Maritimo to beat Rio ave .

they have a 5-0-0 recent record against the away side , i read that there is a fair distance geographically between the sides , could anyone tell me how far? i sometimes feel this is relevant for some games where such a bias in recent meetings.

[jtw1]

1-1

[Aquiles]

With 8 games finished my sugestions score is:
Correct score: w 1/8
Under / Over : w 7/8

Monday, 20 Dez - Guimarães / Sporting
Guimarães
Cléber (def) and Silva (str) cannot play this game and are important players.
Sporting
Hugo Viana, Carlos Martins and Rui Jorge are in return.

I think that with more or little difficulty sporting will win but, in my opinion it´s better pick @X2 or @2 DNB

If you want... add my messenger

[bagehot]

Personally I'd be careful backing Sporting tonight, Guimarães have been improving and Sporting have been travelling rather poorly this season. Draw the most likely outcome IMO and it should be tight as Manuel Machado likes his team to build a result from the back.

[bagehot]

it should be tight as Manuel Machado likes his team to build a result from the back.

:o

[Jedd]

Please leave us Bagehot when you can't make perfectly right predictions everytime!

No, seriously I really value your oppinion and it's always a joy to read your writing onhere (for what it's worth ). Keep it up!

[bagehot]

Please leave us Bagehot when you can't make perfectly right predictions everytime!

Yeah well, I meant it humorously of course, since some people on the forum like to clap their forecasts when they're right and keep silent when they get it wrong

Anyway a Merry Christmas to all the followers of the Portuguese Superliga thread, and here's to a profitable betting year in 2005!

[Galea78]

I had the game as a tight 1-1 draw, with Guimarães recent form improvment i never would have expected a 6 goal game - poor final rounds for me altogether...bring on 2005

Merry Christmas