Portugal - Super Liga (Nov 23-26)

[JCtips]

Sorry I couldn'y post earlier on guys.

I'm staying away from all games today except the Porto-Setúbal game.

Porto-Setúbal
The club from Mourinho's home town (Setúbal) is doing very well this season, playing nice football and getting good results. They have not lost so far this season and they've already played away to clubs like Sporting, Benfica (League Cup) and Guimarães.
I've said it here before, I see them losing their 1st match of the season soon but most likely against a mid table club.
The reason is that they're motivated, playing well and face these big games like a Champions League game...they'll be more likely to "have their guard down" against a not so strong club.
Porto is not playing well they have 2 draws in their last 2 games, the supporters don't like the coach and IMO the statments after the draw away to Amadora in their last game prove that things are not so well between the coach and some of the players.
Plus, they'll surely have their minds in the mid week game against Liverpool for the Champions League.
Even if they win, I don't think it will be by more than 1 goal margin.
My pick: away +1AH

Good luck!

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by metalking5

guys excellent work...what do you think about Belenenses vs Amadora over 2.5?there is great value and previous games also show it

Not so sure about that metalking...
...Belenenses is surely the favourite for tonight and also the better team.
When playing away Amadora's tactic is to "park the bus" in front of their net and look for the counter attack not taking many risks.
Amadora will play for the draw but Belenenses is a better team.
I'll stay away from this one.

Good luck!

Cheers.

JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by zigoto

Maritimo vs Naval
1 unit in X or Naval at 2,16 at Bwin
Yes, Maritimo are doing good results and have quality in their squad. I know it, I even got a 6,4 odd on them last week. But for this game they will be without Bruno, their playmaker, Olberdam, a defensive midfielder that controls most of the defensive plays of the team and Fabio Felicio, an excellent winger. Maritimo will replace those offensive players for 2 defensive midfielders and a central defender that will play as a midfielder. There's no one to build the plays and Naval defence can stop the few plays that they do. Also Naval 4-4-2 will control the midfield, and their 2 fast forwards can do damage to Maritimo.

Good luck,
http://picks4profit.maisapostas.com/

What a great pick on this game Zigoto!!!

Congratulations!



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

Sorry I couldn'y post earlier on guys.

I'm staying away from all games today except the Porto-Setúbal game.

Porto-Setúbal
The club from Mourinho's home town (Setúbal) is doing very well this season, playing nice football and getting good results. They have not lost so far this season and they've already played away to clubs like Sporting, Benfica (League Cup) and Guimarães.
I've said it here before, I see them losing their 1st match of the season soon but most likely against a mid table club.
The reason is that they're motivated, playing well and face these big games like a Champions League game...they'll be more likely to "have their guard down" against a not so strong club.
Porto is not playing well they have 2 draws in their last 2 games, the supporters don't like the coach and IMO the statments after the draw away to Amadora in their last game prove that things are not so well between the coach and some of the players.
Plus, they'll surely have their minds in the mid week game against Liverpool for the Champions League.
Even if they win, I don't think it will be by more than 1 goal margin.
My pick: away +1AH lost

Good luck!

Can't win them all.

Deserved win for Porto even if they didn't play that well.
Setúbal decided to play their worst game of the season (by far) tonight.
They conceded an early goal (6 min) and never really got into the game. They just couldn't hold on to the ball and had too many turnovers (I bet they had more in this game than all other games put together).

Tomorrow is another day and there's another game.

JC

[JCtips]

Last game of the weekend in the Portuguese League and a tough one to bet IMO, but I'll go for it.

Boavista-Guimaraes
Boavista is one of the good clubs in the Portuguese League in the last decade (they even won the League back in 2001) but are not doing very well in the last couple of seasons.
They just had a board change which is expected to calm things down and bring life back to normal at the club.
Still, both the new preseident and the coach have admitted that they'll need to bring in new players in the winter break in order to improve.
They have not won a game so far this season, sit at the bottom of the table and have 7 unders in 10 games.
Guimaraes is doing well this season, they're currently in 3rd place with only one loss so far this season (3-0 away to Sporting) and have 6 unders in 10 games. They also have a better team and, IMO, a better coach.
There's big rivalry between these clubs so it should be similar to a derby.
I see "value" in picking Guimaraes and the <2 (both bets paying more than 2.00).
My picks: away PK and <2;

Good luck!

JC

[zigoto]

"Surprise" on Boavista.... I was suspecting it, but I didnt had confidence to bet... Sometimes the no bet is the best bet...

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

Last game of the weekend in the Portuguese League and a tough one to bet IMO, but I'll go for it.

Boavista-Guimaraes
Boavista is one of the good clubs in the Portuguese League in the last decade (they even won the League back in 2001) but are not doing very well in the last couple of seasons.
They just had a board change which is expected to calm things down and bring life back to normal at the club.
Still, both the new preseident and the coach have admitted that they'll need to bring in new players in the winter break in order to improve.
They have not won a game so far this season, sit at the bottom of the table and have 7 unders in 10 games.
Guimaraes is doing well this season, they're currently in 3rd place with only one loss so far this season (3-0 away to Sporting) and have 6 unders in 10 games. They also have a better team and, IMO, a better coach.
There's big rivalry between these clubs so it should be similar to a derby.
I see "value" in picking Guimaraes and the <2 (both bets paying more than 2.00).
My picks: away PK and <2;

Good luck!

JC

I get home and it's 20m into the game and Boavista was up 2-0 ...
...saw the game after that (and the Boavista goals later on) and I must say this was probably the most unfair result I've seen so far this season, at least in the Portuguese League.

Boavista managed to score 3 goals in this game out of 3 free kicks (the 2nd one being an own goal) which is as likely to happen as any of us hitting the lottery tomorrow...
...Guimaraes played very well, hit the post once, saw the referee (what a "home bias" ref ...) denying two clear penalties to Guimaraes (still can't believe it he didn't call it) and missed several goal opportunities but it just wasn't their day.

When Boavista coach says in the "Flash Interview" at the end of the match that he admits Guimaraes was the better team, it goes without say as this is not common at all in Portuguese football.

JC