Portugal - Cup (Feb 10th)

[JCtips]

My only pick for today in the Portuguese Cup:

Setúbal-Guimarães
Setúbal lost two of their best forwards in January and hired a 2nd division "young promise" to replace them but they can still score. The team has some difficulties for today with only 16 or 17 players available (4 players left the club and only 1 came in and they have a few injured) and that includes 3 keepers.
Setúbal scored in 4 of their last 6 games.
Guimarães is a team that plays good football, are also doing very well this season.
They scored in 6 of their last 6 games and today they will be without Centre Back Sereno (the other regular is Geromel) and everytime one of these two players didn't play this season (6 times so far) Guimarães didn't win the game...
Considering all of this, I see great value in taking the over 2 bet at 1.94.
My pick: over 2;

Good luck!

JC

[sharpshot7]

JCTIPS

What sort of team will benfica put out tonight? will it be the full team or reserves? and will the new player from maritimo play?

Thanks

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

JCTIPS

What sort of team will benfica put out tonight? will it be the full team or reserves? and will the new player from maritimo play?

Thanks

Hi sharpshot7.

Benfica will miss through injury Nuno Gomes and Petit (who got injured during Portugal's midweek match against Italy), Bynia (Cameroon midfielder playing the African Cup Nations final in a bit) and 1st choice Keeper Quim was also left out (he was on the bech in the Portugal-Italy game).
On the other hand, Rui Costa will return to the lineup and Makukula will make his debut for Benfica.
They will be close to full power but two factors make me stay away from this game:
- Benfica's recent poor home form and this will be a "Champions League" match for lowly Paços Ferreira;
- Quite amazingly (everyone is surprised) the ref nominated for this game is Augusto Duarte who is currently under investigation by the authorities for bribery (apparently he received money from FC Porto's president in the past to favour Porto and, in other games, to prejudice Benfica...)...

Benfica is the clear favourite and I expect Makukula to score...but I'll stay away anyway (price is far from good enough for me to bet...).

Good luck!

JC

[sharpshot7]

Thanks JCtips

Maybe it will work the other way and the referee will give everything to benfica to show he is not biased?

Will wait and see how some other bets go before i decide to play it or not.

Thanks again for the info.

[bigs]

Benfica - P Ferreira

Going to be a game with some goals I think So I'm going to go with over 2.5 10/10

Rui Costa is back, Makukula will play along with Cardozo, an inproving form Di Maria! And also benficas defense not quite as good as it was supposed to be, so I'll play over and I'll also have a small stakes on 3-1 and 2-1 correct score!

[bigs]

Benfica 4 - 1 P Ferreira

Over 2.5 WIN

almost got 3-1 bonus... but Nuno Assis that didn't play ... s*ht the whole game, missing passes and shots ... had to score at minute 90' ...

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

Thanks JCtips

Maybe it will work the other way and the referee will give everything to benfica to show he is not biased?

Will wait and see how some other bets go before i decide to play it or not.

Thanks again for the info.

it did seem like the ref wanted to make sure no harm would go on Benfica's way as all eyes were on him.
Benfica's first two goals come from clear penalties (same defender making two very stupid mistakes, getting sent off and still complaining ), which, I'm sure, the ref wouldn't have called them under other (past) circuntances...

Originally Posted by bigs

Benfica - P Ferreira

Going to be a game with some goals I think So I'm going to go with over 2.5 10/10

Rui Costa is back, Makukula will play along with Cardozo, an inproving form Di Maria! And also benficas defense not quite as good as it was supposed to be, so I'll play over and I'll also have a small stakes on 3-1 and 2-1 correct score!

That was a good pick Bigs , congratulations!
It is true, with Makukula and Cardozo upfront Benfica as an incredible fire power IMO but the problem is that they need good crosses or passes to do something out of it...and that's, lately, Benfica's main issue (poor playing and not serving the forwards any decent balls so they can score).



JC

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by JCtips

My only pick for today in the Portuguese Cup:

Setúbal-Guimarães
Setúbal lost two of their best forwards in January and hired a 2nd division "young promise" to replace them but they can still score. The team has some difficulties for today with only 16 or 17 players available (4 players left the club and only 1 came in and they have a few injured) and that includes 3 keepers.
Setúbal scored in 4 of their last 6 games.
Guimarães is a team that plays good football, are also doing very well this season.
They scored in 6 of their last 6 games and today they will be without Centre Back Sereno (the other regular is Geromel) and everytime one of these two players didn't play this season (6 times so far) Guimarães didn't win the game...
Considering all of this, I see great value in taking the over 2 bet at 1.94.
My pick: over 2; push

Good luck!

JC

This has probably to do with the position of the moon or something similar ...I mean, In the last 5 or 6 weeks (in Soccer) I feel my analysis are "right on" but for some strange reason it just isn't going my way...
...yesterday the game was tied 1-1 after 23m and there were no more goals until the end of the game or even in ET...what a joke ...

...Oh well, today is another day and I'll just keep on trying until I get back on track .



JC

[sharpshot7]

Originally Posted by JCtips

This has probably to do with the position of the moon or something similar ...I mean, In the last 5 or 6 weeks (in Soccer) I feel my analysis are "right on" but for some strange reason it just isn't going my way...
...yesterday the game was tied 1-1 after 23m and there were no more goals until the end of the game or even in ET...what a joke ...

...Oh well, today is another day and I'll just keep on trying until I get back on track .



JC

Chin up JC!!

At least it was'nt a loss.
I appreciate the effort you put into this league.
Considering there are normally 1500-2000 views on the portuguese thread each week it would seem a lot of "lurkers" respect your opinion also.

cheers again

[bigs]

Originally Posted by JCtips

That was a good pick Bigs , congratulations!
It is true, with Makukula and Cardozo upfront Benfica as an incredible fire power IMO but the problem is that they need good crosses or passes to do something out of it...and that's, lately, Benfica's main issue (poor playing and not serving the forwards any decent balls so they can score).



JC

Well it seems that week after week I tend to get 3/4 results from the league right in conversations with friends and family. So I think i might give it a shot for value in 2 correct scores for game Thanks JC!

[JCtips]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

Chin up JC!!

At least it was'nt a loss.
I appreciate the effort you put into this league.
Considering there are normally 1500-2000 views on the portuguese thread each week it would seem a lot of "lurkers" respect your opinion also.

cheers again

I'm cool (I always have a long term perspective and I know this League like the back of my hand ) sharpshot7 but thanks for your words anyway !

Originally Posted by bigs

Well it seems that week after week I tend to get 3/4 results from the league right in conversations with friends and family. So I think i might give it a shot for value in 2 correct scores for game Thanks JC!

Bigs,

It looks like that could be a good ("Bigs family picks") system to follow ...



JC