Polish league 07/08 May

Hi again,

After Holland I turn to my own land this time as I noticed three good opportunities for betting with Expekt:

Groclin - Amica X2 @ 1,80
This is a regional derby reputation-wise quite significant for the teams. Both teams have lot in common - they were hoping not long ago for the league title but currently are going through an awkward period of flamed disputes among coaches, players, managers etc. Usual stuff where money abounds but still it turns out in the end you need a pinch of some idea for the team and that money alone can't buy you all success. Anyway, Groclin seems to reel a little more from latest disturbances and having lost more valuable players. Amica seems to get quicker to terms with their conflict with the coach and they staged a good match against Legia last Monday which they did not fully deserve to lose. Such high odds for Amica not losing are not justified to my view.

Swit Nowy Dwor - Polonia X2 @ 1,70
Again a regional derby match. I don't understand the price but it might be that it is due to Nowy Dwor getting a sticker of achieving relatively good results lately more off-the-pitch rather than in direct confrontation. I am going to exploit it as I am convinced Polonia is just too strong now for Nowy Dwor and that Polonia relegation fight should see them staying in the top flight at the end. Nowy Dwor is by no means a rich club and they can't buy everything. Sports-wise they are much inferior to Polonia.

Widzew - Gornik X2 @ 2,45
A little more speculative than the two above but the huge odds for this double result stunned me. Two very poor teams meet. Gornik due to better autumn round looks a little more safe to stay in the league. Gornik totally reorganised thier team at the beginning of the spring round (loads of new players introduced that never played together before) and it could be the reason why their results till the last round were so awful. But something started to click in finally - they almost defeated Groclin last time out but just couldn't hold on to a lead in the dying minutes. Widzew - nothing to speak of - consistently poor squad with little motivation and maybe the return of the Widzew legend coach (Franciszek Smuda) to the team should be blamed for pinning such high hopes on their staying in the first league. But you still need some players for the save plan to work. Gornik stays a very good chance of not losing in Lodz imo. And for the odds on offer I couldn't help but just jump on it.

That's about it. Two out of three is my usual aim. Any thoughts from my Polish colleagues ?

Cheers

Hmmmm, I will change two of Your bets. Firstalbe, I don't think so that Amica wiil win or draw with Groclin. All know that in Amica isn't good and Groclin with good match with Gornik Zabrze last round (draw 2-2) will win this derby . Secondable, Swit is making imposible things in league. With Wojcik they are "gorgous". They are winning - by buying - almost all matches, so I think that Swit will win. In Widzew - Gornik I will bet on clear X, IMO league is fixed, that Widzew and Polkowice are relegated. GL @ll. :>

[Marek76]

IMO league is fixed

first of all, Sen if you realy want to p1ss some folks around here, try not to use the word "fixed". "allegedly arranged" sounds much, much better...

Swit to win, odds around 2, must be the pick of the day. i wouldn't look to far in host's stats just recent results are worth mentioning( due to Wojcik's magic).
last 3 at home:
3-0-0 6-2

Polonia haven't won a single away game this season:
0 4 6 7:18

they are fairly safe, whereas Swit, with 5 matches to go really need to push to get to play-offs.
ok Swit are not Legia and a 7-2(!) massacre should not happen but home side are favourites in this game. another thing that pops into my mind is that it's well know that Polonia's finances are not secure, players don't get their wages on time so additional income might come in handy.

Swit v Polonia is not today but tomorrow is it not?

@Marek: How confident are you on a scale between 1-10 on this pick, the price sure is fine?

for your views. Interesting and much appreciated.

First of all, it's good to see Polish camp growing on the forum little by little

It seems like our different opinions stem from the observation perspective - you guys perceive our league to be totally corrupted and that all places in the rank has already been assigned and cards dealt. I'm not an insider to the football club management and still cherish that happy naive feeling of sportive competition on the pitch prevailing (true, single cases of cheating has always happened but so far they have been evident although I know it's so tempting to generalise - sensation is what thrills the people).

What I also try to say is that some bookies evidently become easily influenced by such opinions of unfair dealings and more often than not this is a chance of raking in bigger profits than would have normally and reasonably been expected. Look a couple of rounds back only - it was inconceivable for Swit to be rated as favorites against any of the first league teams, and now ... note that squad remained unchanged.

Why did Swit lose in the last round then ? Polonia has much more to fight for than secure Plock had. And what more Polonia picked up their results by clearly improving their play rather then conjuring up some magicians to help them through.

These are only my views. We'll see what happen.
Good luck

[Marek76]

in the last round Swit played and lost to well organised team, Wisla Plock. they are sponsored by one of the biggest companies in Poland so there could be no money factor. Plock have in their squad one of the best young stikers in the league, Ireneusz Jelen, who simply finished them off. it was a derby of Mazowsze region as well.

i dont support the mob and corruption theory but Swit's latest surprising results (bar last one) speak for themselves.

the local bookies priced Swit's win @1.8 and the fact that it's still on offer means that there's no clear indication of Wojcik's "the merchant" actions.
checked hosts' forum and fans expect hard and tight game, being cofident of home win though.
with odds around 2 i would still lump on the home win, with medium stakes.

Swit could win if they play exceptionally and have their day. But buying this match ? Can you imagine Engel (Polonia manager) accepting any money from the hands of Wojcik ? For all the world he wouldn't touch it (for those uninformed it would be hard to find stronger animosity between any two football managers in Poland).

I strongly believe that the outcome will reflect the current sportive form of both teams. And with such assumption I placed the bet.

Pity we cannot win both this time, Marek

Cheers

For putting me on a Swit victory. Nice one

[Marek76]

FT 2-1

for you, Marek

I have to settle down for the remaining two. Still, cannot complain :p

Cheers