Netherlands - Eredivisie (Apr 20)

[heniek31]

Sunday 20 April 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Ajax v Heracles Almelo (13:30BST)	1.25	6.50	13.00	103%
Hide « Ajax v Heracles Almelo
AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam (13:30BST)	1.66	3.75	5.50	105%
Hide « AZ Alkmaar v Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord v Roda (13:30BST)	1.61	3.85	6.50	103%
Hide « Feyenoord v Roda
Heerenveen v Excelsior (13:30BST)	1.35	5.20	10.00	103%
Hide « Heerenveen v Excelsior
NAC Breda v NEC (13:30BST)	2.25	3.40	3.85	100%
Hide « NAC Breda v NEC
Twente v Willem II (13:30BST)	1.44	4.25	8.00	105%
Hide « Twente v Willem II
Utrecht v Groningen (13:30BST)	2.10	3.60	3.65	103%
Hide « Utrecht v Groningen
Venlo v De Graafschap (13:30BST)	2.40	3.50	3.00	104%
Hide « Venlo v De Graafschap
Vitesse v PSV (13:30BST)	5.00	3.30	1.90	103%

[SoloFCG]

I think I will skip this round in Dutch Premier all together. I think there aren't any good enough picks to be made. Ajax, Heerenveen and Twente will probably win but there is no value on them, and handicaps are too unpredictable here. I don't trust AZ and Feyenoord one bit to do things right this season, even if they badly need to as is the case with Feyenoord here. Utrecht-FCG, NAC-NEC and VVV-Graafschap are too close to call.

Finally Vitesse - PSV: PSV need to win or draw this one to become champions and they probably will do just that, but it is very dangerous to predict which one it will be. Will they go for the win, or will there be some kind of gentlemen's agreement between the two clubs, take the draw, and let's leave it at that? We've had that before on the last day of the season in Holland. (Groningen - PSV couple seasons back: PSV players getting angry at their striker Mateja Kezman for taking a shot on Groningen goal in the last 10 mins with a 0-0 standing.) There is no value on an x2 bet, so this one is out too.

Also, Vitesse has a very small chance left to get into the UEFA-cup playoffs, if they finish 10th: If Feyenoord wins the national cup and secures an UEFA-cup ticket that way, and if they end between positions 6-9, they will not participate in the playoffs for UEFA-cup. Same goes for Roda winning the national cup, they will also end between positions 6-9. Then this will mean that position 10 also gets a UEFA-cup playoff ticket, and that could be Vitesse, if they win or draw, and Utrecht loses to Groningen.

So....if Utrecht loses to Groningen, a draw would suit Vitesse ánd PSV just fine. As I said, we have seen before how those games will probably end then. I am not talking about fixed games or anything that heavy, it is just too convenient for both clubs not to make it difficult for each other in this situation. You don't want to have bet heavily on a home- or awaywin here and in the second half find yourself in this situation.

There must be better bets with less boobytraps out there this weekend than this one.

There is a good chance there will be a lot of goals in this round, but I don't fancy one particular game enough to consider an under/over bet right now. Maybe I'll add something later.

[Hipmanz]

FC Utrecht - FC Groningen

The only game worth betting in my opinion in this last round of the regular season in the Dutch Eredivisie. Utrecht at 10th spot, Groningen 7th spot. Utrecht desperately need the 3 points in order to stay in front of Vitesse who host PSV, and if they can make an upset and get the 3 points, they could overtake Utrecht. So what about that 10th spot? The normal rules of the playoffs here announce that places 6 - 9 will playoff for 1 Uefacupticket. Now we have Feyenoord and Roda JC standing between spots 6-9, and they will play the cupfinal. That means that now the 10th spot comes into play. So place 10 will be a playoffspot for Uefacup in that case. Therefor all to play for here for Utrecht. For Groningen, the 7th spot has been secure for weeks now, and that won't change after this match. I expect them back at their usual form in the playoffs, but for this last match of the season, I cannot see them being fired up to get anything out of this game. Their topstriker Marcus Berg will be spared for the playoffs, and then we will bet on Groningen again, but not in this match. Utrecht, normally a very good home team, the crowd will be intense at the Galgenwaard,.. and Groningen usually a very poor away team, makes me wanna bet on the home team. Keep in mind what's at stake here for the teams, and the value of the 1.95 odd for the straight home win.

Pick: H, Odds: 1.95, Stake: 5, Bookmaker: Expekt

[nicko]

Odds are ridiculous, but couldn't resist a double and a treble here with medium stakes :
Heerenveen Over + Utrecht Goal/Goal at 1,89
Heerenveen and Ajax Overs + Utrecht Goal/Goal at 2,46
Both with my local
In Heerenveen and Amsterdam odds for Over are better than for home wins, in Utrecht I am expecting a very open match with hopefully many goals but Over was priced the same as Goal/Goal which covers 1-1 too. Looks pretty safe to me for both Overs could be completed by hosts.
Good luck all

P.S. Now that there was a discussion in Weekend bets about points/money
both bets above are with 7,5 points, which is a reasonable/moderate stake for me as 1 point in my scale is 10 Euro, and my max stake is 30 points. Don't know which group this puts me in, only 6 months ago 1 point was 50 Euro to me, obviously a bad season...

[sharpshot7]

nicko

where are you getting goal/goal bets in the dutch league?
bet365 dont cover eredivisie.

cheers

[ScorpioRed]

What is GOAL/GOAL bet? Do you mean both teams to score or?

[sharpshot7]

Originally Posted by ScorpioRed

What is GOAL/GOAL bet? Do you mean both teams to score or?

yes

bet365 do this bet for only a few leagues

[nicko]

Originally Posted by sharpshot7

nicko

where are you getting goal/goal bets in the dutch league?
bet365 dont cover eredivisie.

cheers

My local eurofootball, it is 1,40 atm. And yes, same as both teams to score.
Good luck

[nicko]

Originally Posted by nicko

Odds are ridiculous, but couldn't resist a double and a treble here with medium stakes :
Heerenveen Over + Utrecht Goal/Goal at 1,89
Heerenveen and Ajax Overs + Utrecht Goal/Goal at 2,46
Both with my local
In Heerenveen and Amsterdam odds for Over are better than for home wins, in Utrecht I am expecting a very open match with hopefully many goals but Over was priced the same as Goal/Goal which covers 1-1 too. Looks pretty safe to me for both Overs could be completed by hosts.

Looking good on the Overs at HT, but Utrecht and Groningen are making it far too slow and relaxed. Hope Managers give the guys some during the break....

[nicko]

Originally Posted by nicko

Looking good on the Overs at HT, but Utrecht and Groningen are making it far too slow and relaxed. Hope Managers give the guys some during the break....

FFSake.....