Midweek UEFA Cup

[cluelessG]

Omonia (Nicosia, Cyprus) - CSKA (Sofia, Bulgaria)

Here are my thoughts about this match (kick-off Tuesday, 18:00 CET). Any opinions about Omonia will be welcome as I only have information about CSKA. In short, I think that CSKA will surely not win the first leg and even the draw will be a big success for them.

CSKA finished third in the last championship. They were second after the fisrt half of the season, changed their coach but had a poor second half of the season and were clearly weaker than Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Levski Sofia. CSKA managed to get the third place with a single point lead in front of Litex. So CSKA had big problems in the first half of 2004. But what's in store for them this autumn?

Firstly, they have no players of real good quality. CSKA normally manages to sell one or two players in the summer to bigger European clubs but this season they failed to do that. Obviously no one is seriously interested in the current CSKA players. The only exception might be Sakaliev but he only came to CSKA on loan.The budget of the club has been cut with some 40% as well, although they should have no
immediate financial difficulties.

Secondly, they have no good replacement players on each position. Their midfield is probably an exception but otherwise any injury in defense, attack or the goalkeeper will be a huge blow.
Right now, they have problems in the centre of the defense, where the key player Ibrahima Guy is injured. Right and left defenders (Zabavnik and Tsaha) are solid but Varbanov (young player) and Zafirov will create good opportinuties for their opponents to score. Generally, CSKA fans are not happy with the goalie as well but his replacements are simply disastrous so they have no other choice. This situation was caused by the sale of last-season's goalkeeper to Loko Plovdiv. In midfield CSKA has mainly offensive players and it should bring more problems to their defence. Normally in Bulgaria CSKA relies on outscoring their opponents but local newspapers predict that another defensive midfielder will be introduced for the match against Omonia.

Here's the starting lineup of CSKA in the first round of the championship on Friday (they won 0:1 away against poor Rodopa, lucky goal at halftime by Zabavnik):
Ivanov - Zabavnik, Varbanov, Zafirov, Tsaha - Yanchev, Yanev, Dimitrov, Ayanda - Sakaliev, Gargorov
Defensive midfielder Yordanov will probably replace Yanev or Ayanda in Cyprus.

Another important fact is that CSKA looks tired after several friendly matches in Germany in the end of July. Their coach complained that they had to travel by bus in Germany and they had no time to rest between the friendlies. In their last matches they lost against Hansa (4:1) and Hannover (2:0). I think that it will be very hard for CSKA to play 90 minutes in the heat of Nicosia. Generally, CSKA fans are not too optimistic and the press is somewhat pessimistic about the away leg against Nicosia. CSKA will probably rely on a draw or a 1-goal loss in Cyprus and in the second leg they will try to make use of the notorious weakness of Cyprus teams when playing away.

I have no idea of Omonia but they will probably play aggressively on Tuesday as they rely on their home matches. It is very hard to beat them in Nicosia and I am sure that CSKA will not be able to achieve that. A draw will be perfect for CSKA but they will need lots of luck to get it. I will wait for the odds and then I will decide to bet on 1X or 1 only.

Here are the results of CSKA and Omonia in European cup matches in recent years:

03/04 CL QRound1 Omonia (CYP) - Irtysh (KAZ) 0:0 2:1
03/04 CL QRound2 Wisla (POL) - Omonia (CYP) 5:2 2:2
01/02 CL QRound2 Omonia Nicosia (CYP) - Red Star (YUG) 1:1 1:2

03/04 CL QRound2 Pyunik (ARM) - CSKA Sofia (BUL) 0:2 0:1
03/04 CL QRound3 Galatasaray (TUR) - CSKA Sofia (BUL) 3:0 3:0
03/04 EUFA Round1 CSKA Sofia (BUL) - Torpedo M (RUS) 1:1 1:1 (Torpedo won on penalties, but CSKA were very lucky with a late equaliser anyway)
02/03 UEFA QRound Dinamo Minsk (BLR) - CSKA Sofia (BUL) 1:4 0:1
02/03 UEFA Round1 Blackburn - CSKA Sofia 1:1 3:3
01/02 UEFA QRound Shakhter (BLR) - CSKA Sofia (BUL) 1:2 1:3
01/02 UEFA Round1 CSKA Sofia (BUL) - Shakhtar (UKR) 3:0 1:2
01/02 UEFA Round2 Milan (ITA) - CSKA Sofia (BUL) 2:0 1:0
Do not be fooled by the decent results of CSKA, they had a much stronger team then.

Good luck!

[Snowman]

Will take it Clueless, as 1x together with Maribor x2 for the five team system.
The Serbian side (playing aginst Maribor) are playing in Belgrade, its not their ground, and the match will go live on tv, so the stadium will be pretty empty, no home advanage for them. I dont believe they can beat Maribor, though I dont believe Maribor will try too hard to win.

[cluelessG]

Levski Sofia - Modrica (Bosnia) on Thursday
I suppose that many of you have already read advice to bet on Levski even though odds are low. Well, I can only support such advice. Levski is a decent team, better than CSKA Sofia at the moment and roughly the same strength as Lokomotiv Plovdiv (who lost against Brugge in the CL qualification). Levski started brightly in the Bulgarian League beating solid Slavia 3:0 at home (Slavia had a man sent off though).
According to the rumours, Modrica is a pretty poor team that managed somehow to win the Bosnian Cup last year. Overall they finished 6th in the local league and they had a P15/W0/D5/L10 away record! Scored 5 goals and received 27 in their away matches.
So it seems that we have a huge difference in class. Moreover, Levski is used to beating such teams for UEFA Cup in Sofia. In Bulgaria the expected score is between 2:0 and 4:0.
Local bookmaker Eurofootball offered odds for handycap only: 1.15 for a -1 handicap.
Odds of 1.33 at bet653 sounds really good. 10/10 bet for me.

Partizan Belgrade@2.20(WillHill) to beat Otelul

This is a great,great value and I really doubt they'll be priced more than 1.40-1.45 in the second leg,so this is must-bet situation.IMO,there is no any chance that Otelul can make a surprise over two legs.Maybe the Romanian side could hold them to a 0:0 or 1:1 draw today,but Partizan are simply a better team and highly motivated to win in the first leg already.Surely,they aren't the best away side,but they've had a some nice moments on road in the last few seasons(vs.Lazio 0:0, vs.Rijeka 3:0, vs.Sporting Lisbon 3:1, vs.Newcastle 1:0, vs.Djurgarden 2:2,etc...),which means they are able to show their best stuffs away from home,here and there.At the moment,Partizan are the best side in S&M,without any doubts(much,much better than last season's team that played in Champions League),and I would even dare to say that Partizan are the best S&M side since the famous Red Star generation('91).This is the first time that our team has everything that is an necessary for success in Euro matches and Partizan could be a nice surprise in UEFA Cup this season.

I didn't check today's newspapers,but if I'm not wrong Partizan boss Vermezovic will be able to field the best available lineup.Only right back Cirkovic will miss the game through injury,but young Rnic has already shown his quality and is a regular player for a very long time.So,no big deal.In other words,this is the lineup that should take a part in today's game:

Goalkeeper
Ivica Kralj( = Barthez!Enough said IMO!The same type of goalkeepers He's the former Porto and PSV player,but the guy has never shown his real potential.Anyway,he was an excellent at St.James' Park(CLQ) last season,but didn't play a single minute in CL because of injury)

Defenders
Rnic(The guy is a big potenital and is able to score anytime)
Djordjevic(The national team player and one of the best defenders in S&M at the moment)
Mirkovic(The former Juventus and Fenerbahce player and one of the best defenders in S&M as well.He was untouchable in the national team for a very long time,plus he's probably the most popular player in the country)
Emeghara(The young Nigerian player could be a good option at the left side of the pitch,but need a time to show his quality)

Midfielders
Nenad Brnovic(The national team player and one of the best S&M midfielders in the last few seasons.He was a true leader in his previous club,Zeta and should be a regular in Partizan as well)
Albert Nadj(The former Betis player,and IMO,the best defensive midfielder in S&M at the moment.He's a big fighter and is able to play in a very high rhythm over 90 minutes)
Sasa Ilic(He was on loan to Celta Vigo in the second part(around 5-6 months) of previous season,but didn't help them to aviod the worst possible scenario-relegation.He scored a one goal for the Spanish side(against Real Madrid) in that period.Anyway,Sasa Ilic is rated as one of the best midfielders in S&M,if not the best.He's their captain, one of the best scorers for a very long time, a big leader in other words.Ilic was the man of the match against Newcastle at St.James' Park(it was the best match in his career),but also he was the only reason for Partizan's fall in the group phase of CL as he missed a some amazing chances against Marseille and Real Madrid(Partizan deserved win this one at least 3:0,indeed).Anyway,he's in form again(scored 3 goals against Sutjeska on Sunday) and should be a good again).
Dragan Ciric(The former Barcelona player,but Luis Figo and Rivaldo were simply untouchable at that moment,so he didn't show his quality in this giant.According to many people,Ciric is the best Partizan player in the last few years.He has a superb tehnique)
Ivan Tomic(The former AS Roma player.He didn't have enough chances to show his potential there,mainly beacuse he was too young at that time.He signed for Alaves on loan(1 year) and it was a one of the best shots in his career.As we all know,Alaves played in UEFA Cup Final and Tomic was a one of the best players there,alongside Javi Moreno and a few other guys.Also,Tomic is the youngest Partizan captain ever)

Striker
Boya(If I'm not wrong,he's Cameroon U21 player.Despite scoring problems at the moment(had a serious injury),Boya will show his potential very soon.The guy is a very usefull in the middle as well)

Just to add,the game will be played at neural venue!

According to the latest news,Otelul could be without support of their fans today(below 50 fans is expected!!!),because of protest against the Otelul president.