J-League (May 3-4)

[Youssef]

Great! Just great!

I've just finished my preliminary analysis of all 9 games of today at BetMeeting, and was going to copy and patse them in here (no official picks this week), and the server went down -seemingly- so I cannot open a single post of mine! *Sigh*

Ok, basically I recommend a bet on the DRAW for the game Kufo X Tokyo,
a 10/10 bet on Shimizu to win at home (vs. Cerezo Osaka) and a 5/10 on Urawa Red to win away (at JEF Ichihara).

P.S. Alternatively you may want to LAY JEF with 8-10 /10 units.

Kyoto vs. Albirex is likely to be an over 2.5 goals game. No other bets are recommended.

-------------

OK, server back online :-)

Ventforet Kofu X FC Tokyo

Laying the visiting team works fine with me. For the one thing, Tokyo are still winless on the road, collecting 2 points from 4 away games, scoring 3 and conceding 6 in them.

For the other, Kofu aren't really as bad as their standing on the table may suggest. They've just been unlucky.

Stats aren't as handy at this moment as I would have liked them to be, so I an't really post an official tip on this one, but for me the draw is the most probable result here.

Fukuoka X Kawasaki F.

Again, not much to post. Fukuoka have 1-1-2 as their home record, scoring 3 and conceding 3. That's the lowest goal averag in home games in all teams (6 in 4 games).

Kawasaki are doin good on the road, with 4 wins and a loss. They have scored 14 away goals and conceded 5. That's to say they ar scond bst on the road in both offense and defense.

I expect a tiht game, and a lay of the home side maybe the best option.

Kashima Antlers X Oita Trinita

Kashima are doing extremely great at the moment. 5 wins in their last 6 games, and the only loss was away to Gamba Osaka by a single goal.

They started the sason with 2-1-1 in their 1st 4 games, so you can see they are indeed improving.

They've also scored 12 in 5 home games, yet they've conceded 7.

Their guests have 2-1-2 for theit 5 away games so far, and thus a team apparently knowing how to play on the road. They'v scored 9 and conceded 9 on the road.

With this in mind I slightly lean towards a tight home win, but I would rather lay the visiting team.

Kyoto PS X Albirex Niigata

Can't make up my mind about this one. Both tams scored 7 and conceded 12 (Home games of Kyoto vs. Away ames of Albirex) thus maybe (just maybe) over 2.5 is recommended.

However, I'm confused about the home team winning only once in 4 home games vs. the guests having 2-0-3 for thir 5 away games.

What's more -and I honestly dunno how it really works- Niigata are sheduled to play in Sinapore Laue toda as well. Do they have 2 teams? I dunno. (And I would appreiat it if someone in the know can explain how Japanese teams play "Sporting Afrique" in the Singapore League!!!)

Thus, I would only bet -if at all- on the overs, but will sta away from the actual match outcome.

Shimizu S-Pulse X Cerezo Osaka

Looks like a good bet here that th hom team will prevail.

BACKING Shimizu @ 1.74 (BetFair) or even 1.85 (BetInternet) looks a good bt vs. a team that's only collected a point ou of 5 games on the road.

Shimizu are on a good form, having won over Urawa in their last home game, and coming back with a point from th lion's den (Kawasaki Frontale) in the last game.

Cerezo drew thir last 3 games though, and the H2H says these 2 had 2 draws last season as well (both 1-1).

But I still think Shimizu should win this game to carry on with the good work that's go them up to 6th on th table as we speak.

JEF United X Urawa RD

Jef United Ichihara Chiba X Urawa Red Diamonds (the official full names) is one of the most "complicated' affairs of this morning in the J-League.

JEF are unbeaten in 7 games now, after receiving 2 defeats in heir openin 3 games.

Urawa lost for the 1st time this season in their last away game, and thus I would rather wait a little before I go back to backing them.

However, Urawa are th current leaders, and as so should show a litle consistency. At least a draw here would keep m believing in them.

So, I guess I'll be laying the home win, but with minimal stake.

Omiya Ardija X Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Sanfrecce are the only team without a win in 10 games. The way they concede with ease makes it almost impossible to secure a win, and coming up against a eam that's basically a "home team" makes it no easier.

Omiya have 3-1-1 as their home record, scoring 10 and conceding 7 in the process.

Naturally I shall be more comfortabel laying Sanfrecce (@ 4.8 with BetFair) than laying the draw (@ 3.9) as Sanfrecce -as bad as they are- managed 3 draws on the road already, so approachin this one with caution is advised.

Nagoya Grampus Eight X Yokohama F. Marinos

Nagoya with 1-2-2 at home vs. 5th placed Yokohama with 2-0-2 on the road is a challnging game indeed.

It may appear that the home team (having lost 4 in a row) vs. their visitors whom corrected their path and won their last two, should lead to an obvious away win, but if I have got the correct "feeling" about th J-League by now I would suggest otherwise.

I don't want to look like a "fortune teller" or anyhing, so I'll just pass on this one, with a sincere advise to think twie before placing a bet on the away win.


Good Luck

[meatman]

super write ups Youssef,

GL to you mate

[meatman]

Wednesday 3 May 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Kofu v FC Tokyo (06:00 BST)	2.62	3.35	2.74	105%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Fukuoka v Kawasaki (07:00 BST)	3.90	3.80	1.90	105%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultOver/Under
Kashima v Oita (07:00 BST)	1.60	4.10	6.80	102%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under
Kyoto Purple v Niigata (07:00 BST)	2.82	3.55	2.60	103%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under
Shimizu v C-Osaka (07:00 BST)	1.73	3.65	5.50	104%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under
Chiba v Urawa (08:00 BST)	3.10	3.45	2.30	105%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under
Omiya v Hiroshima (08:00 BST)	1.85	3.70	4.00	107%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under
Nagoya v Yokohama FM (11:00 BST)	2.85	3.25	2.50	106%	Related markets...Match Result- - -Match ResultOver/Under

[kkelster]

Originally Posted by Youssef

Great! Just great!


Kyoto PS X Albirex Niigata

Can't make up my mind about this one. Both tams scored 7 and conceded 12 (Home games of Kyoto vs. Away ames of Albirex) thus maybe (just maybe) over 2.5 is recommended.

However, I'm confused about the home team winning only once in 4 home games vs. the guests having 2-0-3 for thir 5 away games.

What's more -and I honestly dunno how it really works- Niigata are sheduled to play in Sinapore Laue toda as well. Do they have 2 teams? I dunno. (And I would appreiat it if someone in the know can explain how Japanese teams play "Sporting Afrique" in the Singapore League!!!)

Thus, I would only bet -if at all- on the overs, but will sta away from the actual match outcome.

Good Luck

Hi Youssef,

Just want you to know, i'm a great fan of your picks and analysis. =)
Anyways, just wanted you to know that the Albirex Niigata is a reserve/"second" team sent to Singapore's S-League. Since the S-League is a relatively new and "gentler" league, many teams do send their feeder squads for a little match play. This includes Sporting Africa, as well as several teams from Japan, China, etc.

[Thinker]

Hi Youssef.... maybe i kn where to find the latest team news fro the J-League in english version...

wat yu think of Urawa? y yu say yu wan to take a home win? coz i tot of taking Urawa...

[Thinker]

sorry... is may i kn where to find

[3hree]

10/10 pick comes in at 4/5. Thanks alot mate, congrats!

[Youssef]

Thank you guys. I really appreciate your fedback :-)

@MeatMan: I sent you a PM, as I understand you are on of the Admins here. Superb work in the French Soccer section yourself :-)

@kkelster: Thanks, pal! Actually TWO!! One for being a fan, and one for the explanation. Much appreciated, my friend :-)

@Thinker: Sorry, pal. Sources are relatively limited on the J-League :-(
I use stats (BetDevil, or OddSlauhet, though OddSlauhet is innacurate) plus my own eyes (televisd summary of the J-League week) but that's it.

I'm also gald you misunderstood m pick on Urawa and hopefully didn't support them. They LOST!!!

@3hree: Actually that one saved my day. 3 winners (out of 8 games) just wasn't exactly what I expected for today's games. The one that surprised me the most was Sanfrecce winning! This team does not play soccer "as we know it" and I'm anxious to see the televised summary to figure out how they managed not to concede!

I'll be having a litle go on today's games in Europe, but I doubt any "Bankers" can be found!

Thanks all

[Thinker]

Youssef: Thanks bro.... so wats ur pick for tmr J-League???

[Youssef]

In a few miinutes, my friend. Since the resources are so poor I have to wait till 4-5 hours bfore the games to even start composing tips.

I have many this week, so watch out ;-)

[Youssef]

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Jubilo Iwata X Nagoya Grampus
Selection	Under 2.5 goals
Strength	5/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Interwetten @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Jubilo have 2-2-1 as their home form so far. They have scored 8 & conceded 4 in them. The two 2 wins are actually thir latest 2 games at home. Last game they won 2-0 over Kufo at home, and for the last 3 games (all) they are unbeaten. The trick here is they didn't play at midweek. The ame vs. Gamba was postponed, and that ave them extra time to rest and should work in their favour her, plus th home ground factor. Nagoya are winless in 7, have a 1-1-3 form on the road, and in midweek they got a 1-1 draw at home vs Yokohama, which ended a 3 match losing streak. They scored 3 goals in their 5 on the road and conceded 6. Nagoya have -considrably- the weakest attack in the J-League (scored 8 in 11) while Jubilo have th 2nd best defence. Yet on the other end of the field Nagoya would stand 9th best defence (of 18 squads) while Jubilo's attack would be 10th (14 goals in 10 games) I expect a low scoring game, where the home team will probably win by the odd goal. Unfortunately, in Japan you can't bet on under 2.5 with confidenc, as the teams tend to score a lot (a total of 298 goals scored in 98 games so far, which is an average of 3.04 per game) However, for these two I'm willing to place half stakes on the under 2.5 bet, plus 4 more units on the home win. Full stakes 1X shall be placed in a 4-fold combo. (However, it shall not appear here as both combos are not allowed and FonBet are not on the list) P.S. Ladbrokes come second best for the combo. P.S.S. My odds are 1.95 with FonBet Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Jubilo Iwata X Nagoya Grampus
Selection	Home (-1/2) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	4/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.86 (Back)
Reasoning	Using a new tactic of distributing my stakes foe better ROI yielded 8 units on -1/4 A.H. on this one. Unfortunately no such bet could be found, so I settled for the -1/2 A.H. but with only 4 stakes. Please refer to the UNDER 2.5 pick on this match for more details Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Jubilo Iwata X Nagoya Grampus
Selection	Exact Score: 1-0
Strength	1/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 6.00 (Back)
Reasoning	1 unit on exact score 1-0 wouldn't hurt, now would it? Now if the under bet wins (even if it was a 0-0 or 1-1 draw) it should cover the other two. If the hom team wins 2-1 (say) it would still cover the loss of the other two. There's very little chance that these two will draw in a 2-2 (say) thriller, or that th away team will win. If it's a 1-0 win though... it will reap some good revenue over all (a total of 10 units stakes return 24.63) Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Oita Trinita X Kyoto PS
Selection	Draw
Strength	4/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 3.40 (Back)
Reasoning	This may look like a suicidal bt with Kyoto winless in 6 away games so far, and Oita coming on the back of a an away win over Kashima, but I'm convinced Kyoto will be building on their last 2 draws (home to Albirex Niigata & away to Cerezo Osaka). Actually the home team scored 3 of their 4 wins this season on the road. At home they are 1-1-3, scoring 6 and conceding 10. Kyoto on the road are 0-3-3 having scored 6 and conceded 13, so at first I thought about over 2.5 but then I remembered last weekend when I got burnt and a lucky winner saved my. erm.. budget. I'd rather think this would end in a draw (Kyoto ar winless in 5, but have drawn 3 of them) as non of Oita's 4 wins came back to back with another win. Bware thouh that only 2 games are on th H2H record and both were won by Oita (both in March 2003) 3-4 units on this one. Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	FC Tokyo X Omiya Ardija
Selection	Home Win
Strength	10/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	FC Tokyo (4-0-2 at home) scored an away win at Kufo in the midweek day. They came back from behind as Kufo scored 1st. That should lidt them up as it was thir 1st away win, and with a good home form (they scored 11 and conceded 7 at home) they should win a very vulnrable side on the road. Omiya have 0-1-4 as their away form, scoring only 4 and conceding 11. They've managed only 1 point from their last 4 games, and could not even find the goal in the last 2. P.S. I lost my bet on that one. Sanfrecce Hiroshima scored their 1st win in the J-League this season on the expense of Omiya, and I still insist the Hiroshima side does not play football as we know it. They were lucky to win, dfending almost all the time! Last season Omiya got a 3-3 draw here, but lost at home 0-1. However, that was Omiya then. Today they are a far less team than what they were last season, and I think Tokyo can score a good win today. Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Yokohama FM X JEF Utd
Selection	Over 2.75 goals
Strength	10/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	I'd be furious, astonished and in shock if this one yields less than 4 goals. Yokohama scored 21 goals so far, 14 of which at home. They've also conceded 11 (out of a total of 16) at home. JEF, worked in reverse so far, having scored 12 on the road (vs. 8 at home) and conceded 9 (as opposed to 6 at home). So btween them two 41 goals have been scored and 31 conceded (all) while ombining the home goal tally of the Marinos with the away tall of JEF yields 26 scored and 20 conceded. I also took a look at the H2H stats, and they confirm this notion: 2005/05 JEF Ichihara 2 - 2 Yokohama FM <= 4 goals 2005/05 Yokohama FM 2 - 1 JEF Ichihara <= 3 goals 2004/04 Yokohama FM 2 - 1 JEF Ichihara <= 3 goals 2004/04 JEF Ichihara 3 - 0 Yokohama FM <= 3 goals 2003/03 Yokohama FM 1 - 0 JEF Ichihara <= 1 goal 2003/03 JEF Ichihara 3 - 1 Yokohama FM <= 4 goals So the average is 3 goals per ame between them, and this season they're both scoring a lot. As far as the outcome goes though, I belive it maybe a draw. 2-2 or even 3-3. 3-1-2 home form vs. 3-1-1 away form should work in neither side's favour, and the H2H trend of ach winnin at home is nullified by nthe fact that Yokohama couldn't win at home for 3 games, but ended that run with a 2-1 win over weak Sanfrecce. The 3 clean sheets run of JEF still worries me abit, but I belive it should end today. 3 bets on this one: Over 2.75 (10/10) Draw (7/10) and exact score: 2-2 (2/10) Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Yokohama FM X JEF Utd
Selection	Draw
Strength	7/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 3.30 (Back)
Reasoning	Please refer to the main pick (Over 2.75 goals) for details.

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Yokohama FM X JEF Utd
Selection	Eact Score: 2-2
Strength	2/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Gamebookers @ 15.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Please refer to the main pick (Over 2.75 goals) for details.

More Picks to follow. These were for the ames to kick off in 70 minutes.

Good Luck

[Youssef]

For the game of Sanfrecce X Fukuoka there shall be no bets. Both teams suck and it would take a fortune teller (for real) to predict anything about it. I guess that's why even bookies refrain from providing odds on this game, with the exception of "BetWay".

So, lt's move on to the games to kick off at 12 noon CET:

Albirex Niigata Shimizu S-Pulse (Under 2.5 goals @ 2.00 with FonBet)

2 units should be enough on this one. I can't ever tell for sure when my Jap-friends are in the mood to score.

However, my choice to go for under here is based on the fact that Niigata at home have scored only 6 and conceded 4, while 6-6 is the collective goal tally of Shimizu on the road.

Eventhough all last 3 games for the home team ended in under 2.5 I cannot fully rely on it. Shimizu's last game also eded in a single goal, but again that didn't give me enough confidence to go high stakes.

I will not even place an official pick on this one. I can't be sure nough, so I recommend this bet ONLY for those who like to bet for the sake of betting.

Albirex Niigata Shimizu S-Pulse (Draw @ 3.30 with BlueSQ)

On the H2H thes two had 4 games. The 2 played here both ended in draws (0-0 last season & 3-3 the season before), while each team won a game at S-Pulses's groung (2-1 last season & 2-4 the season before)
3-1-1 home form vs. 2-1-2 away form though can go either way, but the goal tally suggests a tight game today, and while Shimizu are winless in 3 on the road, their hosts won their last 2 games at home.

Tricky affair, isn't it? The draw is as good a probability as any other IMHO, yet using a slightly complicated probability method (based on Poisson's distribution) suggests otherwise.

(Ok. so it suggests a draw is the least possible outcome with 27.67 % a probability, yet it gives both teams the same probability of winning: 36.17%)

The most probable outcome thouh is 1-1 (13.07 %).
This is the most risky bet of all bets today.

A simpler method suggests 50%-20%-30% (H-D-A) yet suggests a 1-1 draw also!!!

So, based only on mathematics I will place this bet of a single unit. I will incluse this one in my combo though, laying Shimizu (the 4-fold will be 1X)

It should be noted too that these odds are too low for this probability. The fair odds should be around 5.00, so I'm only usin this bet to test the method on bets that I have no other means to figure out.

Good Luck

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Gamba Osaka X Kofu
Selection	Home Win
Strength	10/10
Date	06/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	Just because Gamba are high flying doesn't mean this should be a banker. On the contrary, this is a risky bet, as Gamba seem to do much better on the road, despite the fact that thy lost their last away game at Niigata. However, Kofu losing to both Iwata and Oita (whom both have the same cahachteristics of Gamba, performing better on the road, especially Oita) makes me think Gamba will win today. That and the act that they did lose the last time out (last weekend) so they should make up for that slip, and -of course- them being a much better team than their guests. On the table, these two have almost semi-skewed stats. Gamba at home: 3-1-1, Kofu way: 1-1-3 Gamba scored 23 and conceded 13, while Kofu scored 12 and conceded 22. No H2H stats available as Kofu are newly promoted, and against last season's champions I believe experience should be an additional factor siding by Gamba. If they should win, Gamba will top the league tmporaril, equalling the number of ames played by both Urawa & Kawasaki, with them both playing as hosts to Kashima & Cerezo (respectivly) on Sunday. I shall go for the home win to start with, and maybe place a little something on a -1 Handicap. Good Luck

Well, the odds have fallen down below any acceptable limit, and -1 A.H. disappeared from most bookies lists. I will NOT take a handicap higher than that, for Gamba only won ONCE at home by more than one, so let's leave it at that.

Oh, and as for the combo: Jubilo Iwata, Oita Trinita, Albirex Niigata & Gamba Osaka all not to lose!

Good Luck, my dear friends :-)

[Youssef]

Alright, gentlemen... I think I'll retire from this league! Maybe a pick or two every once in a while, but certainly not going to give it time on the expense of other leagues!

I apologize for the mess I've caused this week. I hope I'll make it up to you somehow

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by Youssef

Alright, gentlemen... I think I'll retire from this league! Maybe a pick or two every once in a while, but certainly not going to give it time on the expense of other leagues!

I apologize for the mess I've caused this week. I hope I'll make it up to you somehow

We all have poor days. The way you can make it up is by posting again next week.

[Youssef]

Well, David. I was furious. verything seemed to go the opposite of what I prdicted them to be.

Well, at least my combo saved the day. I will try giving it another shot, but I now realize the J-League does not follow "standard" measurements most other leagues do.

Lets' give these games a try:

Tip Detail

Sport	Football (Asia)
Event	Kawasaki Frontale X Cerezo Osaka
Selection	Home (-1.25) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	07/05/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Top vs. Bottom, well.. 2nd now, after Gamba won yesterday. Kawasaki is one of 2 teams that have yet to lose at home (The other being Urawa Red), while Cerezo are one of four teams that have not won on the road. Kawasaki -thanks to the opening couple of games- hav the best scorin tally in the J-Leagu, having scored 31 so far, 15 of which at home. Thir defense lin (before yesterday's gams) shares 3rd best standing with 3 other defence lines) In comparison, Crezo have the 3rd worst attack and 2nd worst defence. This should be a must win for both teams. Kawasaki will want to saty atop of the league, and they will have some really tricky/tough games coming up next, as Cerezo's the only "bottom third" of the table left for them to play. On the other hand, Cerezo look set to relegate already, eventhough we have not yet even reached the point of third of a season. Cerezo's problem is they can't defend AND attack at the same tim. If they go forward they leave their goal widely exposed, while if they defend they're considerably better, but form no threat to their opponents goal at all. I'll tak Ladbrokes's offer and back Frontale to win by more than 1 goal. No more bettin on Over/Under in the J-League. I've had enough of that already! Good Luck

Urawa Red Diamonds X Kashima Antlers

No official tip on this one, but I'll rely on Urawa conceding only once at hoem to lay Kashima.

P.S. Not to confuse some of you, LAY = Bet Against! I will bet that Kashima will NOT win.

The best odds are -as usual- on BetFair @ 3.9 (only 5 Euro available now) which is the same as betting on 1X @ 1.345. The highest normal 1X odds available with FonBet @ 1.27, and that's nowhere near what I'd consider to place my money at.

No more bets are rommended!

Good Luck!