Italy: Serie A Round 12 (November 13-16)

[Toronto_Mike]

Originally Posted by davethesave

im new here and still havent gotten used to all the lingo and numbers...so bare with me...

im thinking bout taking in a parlay...

DRAW (+200)-torino/catania
DRAW -(+210) siena/bologna

i know taking draws is dangerous but i like to live dangerously and have had some luck in the past...

any input guys?

Welcome aboard dave.

Parlays on ML is dangerous already and now you're thinking of taking draws? Not worth it. You're better off taking singles on draws.

With the two games you picked, i'm opposite.

I will be on Catania and Siena. Both Torino and Bologna are horrendous teams on the road and I"m not too sure what caught your eye about the draw on these. Catania and Siena are legit home squads. I will write up a more indepth preview but for the most part those aren't good games to bet on the draw. Also the draw hasn't been kind to the Serie A, there have been far more home wins in the Serie A then any other big leagues.

[davethesave]

thanks mike....funny running into a fellow torontonian on here!

i kinda like trying my luck with draws and these lower table clashes just seem to tempt me to bet draw because either team is afraid to lose...that being said yes HOME sides have been strong.... any help or input would be much appreciated as the values ive gotten for this weekends games dont seem to jump off the screen at me....

[davethesave]

ITALIAN SOCCER - SERIE A - Nov 16
REGULATION TIME ONLY
	Nov 16	317	NAPOLI		+165
	9:00 AM	318	ATALANTA		+170
	9:00 AM	319	Draw		+190
	Nov 16	325	FIORENTINA		+140
	9:00 AM	326	CAGLIARI		+190
	9:00 AM	327	Draw		+205
	Nov 16	333	TORINO		+265
	9:00 AM	334	CATANIA		+110
	9:00 AM	335	Draw		+200
	Nov 16	341	CHIEVO		+1050		+1½+110
	9:00 AM	342	AC MILAN		-460		-1½-140
	9:00 AM	343	Draw		+450
	Nov 16	349	LECCE		+550
	9:00 AM	350	SAMPDORIA		-170
	9:00 AM	351	Draw		+225
	Nov 16	357	BOLOGNA		+325
	9:00 AM	358	SIENA		-115
	9:00 AM	359	Draw		+210
	Nov 16	365	REGGINA		+760		+1+115
	9:00 AM	366	UDINESE		-250		-1-145
	9:00 AM	367	Draw		+290
	Nov 16	373	LAZIO		+240
	2:30 PM	374	ROMA		+125
	2:30 PM	375	Draw		+190

these are the current lines with my sportsbook

[Toronto_Mike]

Originally Posted by davethesave

thanks mike....funny running into a fellow torontonian on here!

i kinda like trying my luck with draws and these lower table clashes just seem to tempt me to bet draw because either team is afraid to lose...that being said yes HOME sides have been strong.... any help or input would be much appreciated as the values ive gotten for this weekends games dont seem to jump off the screen at me....

I think the mistake is that "lower table" clashes aren't going to be the easiest draws. In fact draws will most likely come in when big teams travel to hostile environments of a lower table team.

For the most part the home teams dominate in these sort of clashes

[maxzorn]

Originally Posted by Toronto_Mike

Welcome aboard dave.

Parlays on ML is dangerous already and now you're thinking of taking draws? Not worth it. You're better off taking singles on draws.

With the two games you picked, i'm opposite.

I will be on Catania and Siena. Both Torino and Bologna are horrendous teams on the road and I"m not too sure what caught your eye about the draw on these. Catania and Siena are legit home squads. I will write up a more indepth preview but for the most part those aren't good games to bet on the draw. Also the draw hasn't been kind to the Serie A, there have been far more home wins in the Serie A then any other big leagues.

I tend to agree with Toronto_Mike, come read more on Serie A @ http://www.serieatalk.com.

Cagliari vs. Fiorentina looks even more interesting from an away victory perspective. Gilardino has been hot however Mutu will most likely miss this one.


Cagliari Injury list:

12.11	Carlos Matheu	D	2	0-0	16.11 ?+
7.11	Francesco Pisano	D	9	0-0	16.11 ?-
6.11	Andrea Parola	M	6	0-0	16.11 ?
15.10	Michele Canini	D	2	0-0

[maxzorn]

Sunday 16 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Atalanta v Napoli (14:00GMT)	3.00	3.10	2.86	100.56 %	Details »
Hide « Atalanta v Napoli
Cagliari v Fiorentina (14:00GMT)	3.40	3.15	2.52	100.84 %	Details »
Hide « Cagliari v Fiorentina
Catania v Torino (14:00GMT)	2.19	3.10	4.40	100.65 %	Details »
Hide « Catania v Torino
Milan v Chievo (14:00GMT)	1.24	6.60	20.00	100.80 %	Details »
Hide « Milan v Chievo
Sampdoria v Lecce (14:00GMT)	1.65	3.70	8.20	99.83 %	Details »
Hide « Sampdoria v Lecce
Siena v Bologna (14:00GMT)	1.95	3.30	5.20	100.82 %	Details »
Hide « Siena v Bologna
Udinese v Reggina (14:00GMT)	1.44	4.60	10.50	100.71 %	Details »
Hide « Udinese v Reggina
Roma v Lazio (19:30GMT)	2.42	3.20	3.65	99.97 %	Details »

[davethesave]

any reason why UDINESE-REGGINA hasnt really been mentioned...can anyone see reggina taking anything from this matchup???

[Toronto_Mike]

Siena -0.5 @ 1.95 (3 Units)
Quite simply put it, Bologna is just terrible. Bologna were absolutely lucky last week when Cicinho decided to header a marvelous goal into his own net in the dying minutes to secure a 1-1 draw. Bologna have relied on frustrating their opponents. They are not a goal scoring team and really all they do is sit and wait and wait and wait then counter. It's quite frustrating to watch this team. First game of the season that "Shock" 2-1 victory over AC Milan at the San Siro was memorable however they did practically nothing throughout the whole game. Another interesting win was vs Lazio where they shot 6 times and managed to score 3 goals out of it.
Siena was handed a heavy defeat last week vs Sampdoria, their first defeat of more than 2 goals this season. A very usually well organized squad, Siena will need to focus on breaking through a stingy Bologna defense. Siena will know that playing at home is going to be a huge advantage and also know that Bologna do not take too much adventurous attacking opportunities so the home team must press and press. In terms of injuries or suspensions Siena have long term injuries so it won't be a major concern. Bologna are also going to use the same squad that held Roma to a 1-1 draw. IMO a team that can actually attack and create chances to score are more than likely to win then a team that has zero attack and waits on a counter or set piece.
Prediction: Siena 2-0 Bologna

[Toronto_Mike]

Catania -0.5 @ 2.19 (3 Units)
Ok ok, I think there seems to be an overreaction here with Torino's win vs Palermo. This is excellent if you are a Catania backer because Torino is absolutely horrendous on the road while Catania is still a rock at home. This is a typical battle of awesome home team vs terrible road team. Beginning of the season we would see this as a relegation battle, however Catania has been defying a lot of odds with their play especially on the road. They have done very well at home suffering only 1 defeat to the hands of Udinese. The Catania fans have been quite interesting this season. They booed Walter Zenga's men during their 2-1 win over Cagliari. It's rather interesting because Zenga did save them from relegation last season and now have over exceeded expectations to the start of the season. There seems to be quite a high expectation level and rather unrealistic from the fans.
Torino could see a good chunk of the game without their key play maker Alessandro Rosina who hasn't been up to par lately and could be feeling rather jaded and injured. He is their sole attacking creativity and when he has an off day the entire team is horrendous.
Overall I just feel the price is too generous, Catania may still a bottom half table come end of the season but they are a typical side that take the points all at home and none away.
Prediction: Catania 2-0 Torino

[Toronto_Mike]

Cagliari +0.25 @ 1.88 (3 Units)
The recent form of Cagliari has clearly lead me to believe they could be on the verge of something special here. The 3 wins this season have come from their last 5 matches. Though they are still a terrible road team, the Sardinians are still a worthy home team. Winners of their last two home teams and drawing 0-0 with AC Milan a team who at the time was just on fire. Cagliari manager Massimiliano Allegri tweaked his forward line before the Torino match by installing Jeda upfront and so far there has been plenty of positives. Since Jeda has been installed into the line up, the team has scored in every game he's played.
Fiorentina have been rather wishy washy this season. One moment there are signs of brilliance with a 3-1 away win vs Palermo, but they also look very human with loss' to Siena and Lazio. I'm still not convinced that Fiorentina are a worthy road team. They've only won twice on the road against Chievo who are just terrible at this time and Palermo a team that has been in quite a mess this entire season.
Adrian Mutu will miss this match due to injury so that means Melo and Gilardino will do the core work of the attack. But what worries me is that Gilardino may actually need a lot of Mutu's assistance in order to succeed. We'll see how this pans out as Mutu is scheduled to miss quite a good chunk of time. Cagliari's games have been competitive for the most part and so far when the big teams come in the crowds have come out, eg AC Milan and Juventus, I expect the same thing and hope that the Crowds will pay a big advantage here. Though I'm not much of a stat junkie, Fiorentina have only won twice in their travels to Sant Elia as oppose to Cagliaril's 13 home wins. Perhaps this stat might give a clearer indication that traveling to Sardinia is not a journey road teams want to make...especially Viola.
Prediction: Cagliari 2-1 Fiorentina

[maxzorn]

ouch Mike you slam the door pretty hard with that write up for the Cagliari win. I'm sure some the regulars know how the islanders will put up a good fight and if I recall correctly last year Fiorentina was really dependant upon their home form to carry them but I just get this feeling the Viola will get some from this one regardless of Cagliari 's recent performance. The Viola really need the points to keep pace with all the congestion and contenders at the top of the table

[corvus corax]

@davethesave, I like draws too, great odds. But you need to pick really right matches if you want to catch a draw. and here must agree with Toronto_Mike, Torino and Catania looks more home wins, than draws. This is just quit look, will check later.

@Toronto_Mike, well done yesterday, Inter is still Inter. Lucky me I stay away from that match, I was just tend to pay a bet on draw, but change my mind and stay behind.

[Monty Hall]

Cagliari - Fiorentina
Today, 14:00
Soccer - Ita. Serie A


Pick: Fiorentina Result: Pending
Stake: 10/10 Odds: 2.55
Bookmaker: Bet1128 vCash: No
Posted: Today, 10:44



Fiore has not been very successful on the road and Cagliaris' form has improved significantly since holding Milan to a 0-0 draw, have beaten Chievo & Bologna.

Last outing at Catania lost after taking the lead, Allegris' claims of being robbed "we were punished.." are unjust in my view.

Also
"Cesare Prandelli is convinced Fiorentina can win in Sardinia despite Cagliari's impressive recent form.."


I also have intuition that fiore will win.

Good luck.

Visit TuttiFooty.Com for news, video previews & stats

[Monty Hall]

Originally Posted by davethesave

im new here and still havent gotten used to all the lingo and numbers...so bare with me...

im thinking bout taking in a parlay...

DRAW (+200)-torino/catania
DRAW -(+210) siena/bologna

i know taking draws is dangerous but i like to live dangerously and have had some luck in the past...

any input guys?

Hi there Dave

Current events have nothing to do with statistics but may influence results non the less:

Latest Football News & Soccer Transfer Rumours
Walter Zenga has threatened to quit Catania after copping abuse from fans yesterday.
Tribalfootball.com

Read More..

Torino is another team that has not shined on the road and Catania has been a fortress, but maybe this time things might change..


Good luck

[elchillum]

i'll put my last money on catania to double up guys ... the odd seems good, and catania at home is really really good ... torino, like bologna are horendous it's true!

viola winning in cagliari? ... not too sure mates ... cagliari at home is strong and these teams always tend to take at least one point at home for the relegation battle ... fiorentina are a decent team but without mutu and gila they are just average ... also backing siena but it only could be a 1-0 victory or so so not a safe bet at that price ... i do not see reggina take something in udine becuz their attack aint that good! taht's basically the problem of reggina ... they need to score from corner kicks ... it's a fysical team but udine is just stronger!

not too sure too that roma will win the clash of the derby! a derby is always a derby and anything can happen! it's the mother of all derbies and though totti will be fit, lazio has shown some good football this season with pandev and rocchi ... they are pretty fast! on paper roma is better but maybe a draw or a small stake on lazio is worth the try at these odds!

atalanta-napoli someone? atalanta darn strong at home, terrible away ... napoli great at home, great away :p ... at these odds maybe it's also worth a try to put something on napoli though it aint a 'safe' bet cuz atalanta, say it again ... strong at home! tough to beat!

in the end my pick is on catania

cheers!

[nicko]

No good feeling about Catania and Siena, hope Toronto Mike is right as these bets become popular. I will pass, just 2 for me here today : Udinese - 1AH for obvious reasons and Goal/Goal in the Roman derby - enough firepower both ends to see at least a goal each.
Good luck

[Toronto_Mike]

Originally Posted by nicko

No good feeling about Catania and Siena, hope Toronto Mike is right as these bets become popular. I will pass, just 2 for me here today : Udinese - 1AH for obvious reasons and Goal/Goal in the Roman derby - enough firepower both ends to see at least a goal each.
Good luck

Not too sure how Catania or Siena are popular bets when the line has just been increasing all week?

Catania now is sitting around 2.25 while Siena are up to 2.04

I'm not going to bet based on popularity or what not, I'm basing it on what I believe is the right play. I know what you are saying when you have that gut feel, but I've gone through those phases and regret not making the play. Either way I think I have to take the punt on these two especially considering my belief at the start of the season was that if I see Catania over 2.00 at home to a bottom table club, I have to take it.

BOL matey

[Toronto_Mike]

Tell you what Nicko, I think the one upset that could happen would be Reggina. From what I heard and read, Udinese maybe without Floro Flores and Di Natale...that's 2 out of your 3 key strikers. I know Udinese will have fantastic back up but fatigue might play a part here.

[Toronto_Mike]

added:

Atalanta ML @ 2.90 (2 Units)
In my experience with Atalanta, having the proper line up is absolutely crucial, the last two weeks there has been an inconsistency about who is playing, due to injuries. But Atalanta right now is close to their full squad...well a squad that is worth competiting. Having Cristiano Doni in the squad is so crucial for this side it's unreal the effect he has. IMO, if he was in the line up last week vs Viola...the results could of been a little different in terms of benefitting for Atalanta.
Napoli has been exceptional this season, now that they can focus on the Serie A rather than the UEFA Cup. The squad is definitely aiming for a Champions League spot, but in order to obtain a spot they must compete and defeat teams such as Atalanta at home....problem is Napoli traditionally is not a very good road team. This season their fortunes have changed a little bit. Having already won 2 road games compared to last season when they only won 3 road games, this is a fantastic start. A full squad is available for Napoli so you may think why on earth would I want to really pick Atalanta? Well for me, this is going to be a physical battle, Napoli may still have that horror of a fixture from last season when they lost 5-1 in Bergamo but then again Atalanta may use that as a positive influence to get back on track. I hate comparing teams too much but Atalanta did deserve more than a defeat to Milan and even then the team wasn't in top shape. It's not going to be an easy play for Napoli but both gut, and research feel that Atalanta is worth the punt here. Unfortunately as I write this they are now the slight favorites which wasn't what I wanted to see, but nevertheless, it's going to be rather intense and I won't be surprised to see a lot of yellow cards here....I just hope Atalanta doesn't get a useless red card and screw me up like they did vs Lecce!
Prediction: Atalanta 1-0 Napoli

[Toronto_Mike]

Odds for Catania now up to 2.42 with the Draw @ 2.85 on 188bet.

So I doubt Catania is a popular bet tonight. Hoping this sort of line change can benefit Catania backers.