Italy Serie B (17-19-20/12/2004)

[kk_ghost]

Average odds from www.betexplorer.com

Friday 17/12/2004

Catania Calcio - Salernitana 2.10 2.73 3.66

Sunday 19/12/2004

Albinoleffe - Piacenza 2.47 2.73 2.87
Treviso - Catanzaro US 1.77 2.80 5.09
Arezzo - Perugia 2.48 2.62 3.02
Crotone - Venezia AC 1.97 2.74 4.05
Triestina - Torino AC 2.61 2.63 2.84
Genoa FC - Empoli AC 1.80 2.86 4.69
Verona - Vicenza 1.83 2.79 4.75
Bari - Modena 2.12 2.73 3.63
Ternana - Pescara 1.88 2.68 4.64

Monday 20/12/2004

Ascoli - Cesena 1.80 2.80 4.69

I know it's a bit early and there is still the whole UEFA midweek to bet, but here are my thought about Serie B.
For this week I've chosen 2 matches:

Hellas Verona - Vicenza

After 4 matches without a win (1 loss, 4 draws) finally Verona got 3 pts and it managed to do it on a very hard ground.
Few weeks ago I suggested backing Verona in the home match against Pescara. It ended with a draw (1-1). Verona scored very early (4') and did dominate the whole game whithout "killing" it. That was a shame because Pescara equalised at 65' and got an undeserved point.
Last week Verona went to Perugia (3rd in the table and credited candidate to a place in next Serie A) without one of its best player : Behrami, who got one week ban after the match vs Pescara. Despite the important absence Verona made an excellent game and fully deserved the final result of 2-0. It's very important they didn't concede any goal, in fact the defence is the weakest
point of Hellas this year.

Next sunday Verona will host Vicenza. It's a local derby (both teams are from Veneto) and I think home side has very good chances to win. Vicenza is very poor away from home (7 lost games out of 8 played on the road).
Last week in Modena they were leading 1-0, but conceded 2 late goals and the match ended with a loss (1-2).

Verona has a good tradition with Vicenza. They played 29 matches at Bentegodi achieving 14 victories, 11 draws and loosing only 4 games.
For the match Verona will miss defender Biasi, no particular absences for Vicenza.

About betting: italian bookmakers offer average odds of 1,75 for home win. I think in serie B odds below 1,80 are never a good choice so I'll go with medium stakes. I strongly suggest higher stakes for odds ONLY from 1,90/2,00 (if you can find it).
It's a derby, so both side will play with high motivation. Verona has not been "built" for reaching Serie A: the team is almost the same of last season when they battled to avoid relegation. Coach Ficcadenti is making an excellent work, but the team is young and players have still more to learn. However Verona is not overperforming: they deserve the 5th place in the table and keep on playing to win and please supporters.
I finally think Over 2,5 is another good choice. Verona has the 2nd best attack (only Genoa is better) and, as I wrote, the defence
is not properly a fortress!!!


Treviso - Catanzaro

After an awful start Treviso got a good form, showed a nice game and collected points after points managing to get 8 useful results in a row.
Next sunday they'll have the chance to continue the good streak and make another step forward in the table.
Catanzaro is very poor on the road ( worst than Vicenza with a table that reads 1/0/7 and only 3 goals scored in 8 matches).
I think this terrible away form is due to Cagni style of play. Catanzaro hired Cagni when they sacked the previous trainer after the 2-2 draw in derby with Crotone. Cagni is a good coach, very competent about Serie B, but imho his kind of soccer, very defensive works only under certain conditions that Catanzaro simply doesn't match.
Finally, Catanzaro comes from 3 losses in a row. I can't see them getting a single point in the upcoming match in Treviso.

I'll add news about injuries etc. next days

About betting: italian bookmakers offer average odds for home win are 1,75, so I'm going to bet exactly as I wrote about the other match.
I think home win with -1 european handicap with odds from 3,50 is surely worth a try.

Conclusions:
Verona - Vicenza 1 + Treviso Catanzaro 1 from 3,60 5/10
Verona - Vicenza 1 from 1,90 7,5/10
Treviso - Catanzaro 1 From 1,85 8/10
Verona - Vicenza Over 2,5 from 1,80 7/10
Treviso (-1) - Catanzaro 1 from 3,50 3/10

GL

KK_

[kk_ghost]

Verona - Vicenza 5-3 FT; Treviso - Catanzaro 2-0 FT

Verona - Vicenza 1 + Treviso Catanzaro 1 from 3,60 5/10
Verona - Vicenza 1 from 1,90 7,5/10
Treviso - Catanzaro 1 From 1,85 8/10
Verona - Vicenza Over 2,5 from 1,80 7/10
Treviso (-1) - Catanzaro 1 from 3,50 3/10


I'd say it has been a profitable day

KK_

[heniek31]

Nice one kk . I used some of it .