Italy Serie A (06/01/2005)

[kk_ghost]

	Sampdoria Genoa - Udinese	69	2.34	2.84	3.01	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Reggina - Palermo	69	2.32	2.81	3.08	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Parma - Juventus	70	5.58	3.25	1.60	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Brescia - Bologna	69	2.21	2.83	3.26	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Atalanta Bergamo - Fiorentina	70	2.88	2.82	2.45	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Milan AC - Lecce	71	1.27	4.58	9.47	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Livorno - Inter Milan	70	4.91	3.05	1.73	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Chievo Verona - Siena	69	1.76	3.03	4.72	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Cagliari - Messina	68	1.79	3.02	4.51	06.01.2005 - 15:00
	Lazio Roma - Roma AS	70	3.17	2.89	2.23	06.01.2005 - 20:30

Serie A restarts after the Xmas break. I'm going to leave most of the matches alone... Not very good fixtures to bet on. My only choice will be the derby Lazio - Roma.
Both teams from Roma have been very disappointing so far.. They are out of European competitions and their performances in Serie A is really awful. Roma is a bit better and maybe they'll keep on improving, but most seasonal goals are already out of reach.
The upcoming derby becomes then a game more important than usual and I'm sure both sides will give 120% to get the victory. The atmosphere is already hottest since before the break there has been a "video - skirmish" between Totti and DiCanio.
During the break Lazio fired its trainer Caso (the fact that team was playing against him is something more than a rumor). They hired as new coach Papadopulo.
For the match Roma will miss Montella, suspended for 1 game, but I think Totti and Cassano won't make feel his absence and I'm pretty sure the captain is just waiting to show his new 'funny' t-shirt to the crowd at olimpico.
Lazio and Roma this year score and concede many goals, so I think it will be a high-scoring game. The technical change on Lazio bench, the derby motivaton, the kind of play showed so far by the teams strenghten this impression of mine.
My bet goes on multichance goal 4/6, for wich Stanleybet offers odds 3,40. I can see a good value on them, even better than away win (Roma is, of course, the favourite).

Conclusions:
Lazio - Roma Over 2,5 (from 1,80) 8/10
Lazio - Roma Multichance goal 4/6@3,40 5/10

GL

KK_

Ooops I've just realized I opened the thread in the wrong category....:o :o
Sorry.. I hope it can be moved........

[qlpol]

After a winter break it's always difficult to tell which teams have improved so I only bet small stakes this round. Nevertheless there are some tempting fixtures in my opinion.

Lazio Roma - As Roma

As Roma is clearly the favourite, and I think they will not slip up here. They have more potential, and have not lost a derby game since 2000. Montella is out for Roma, but I reckon they have enough firepower left to do the job. In a derby like this I don't think other statistics play an important role, because both teams will give more than 100% and in the end quality is the deciding factor. So for me Roma to win, with a possibility to cover with a draw.

Bet : Lay Lazio Roma


Cagliari - Messina

Cagliari is the best home team after Juventus in the Serie A with a record of 5/2/1, the loss coming from AC Milan. Messina on the other hand has a bad away record of 1/3/4, the only win coming from Siena. Cagliari and Messina both ended the first part of the season with medium form figures, but with the winter break they don't play an important role imo.
1.8 for the homewin looks good, cover with the draw is possible but I'm going for a straight homewin here.

Bet : Cagliari @ 1.79

Other interesting fixtures are Juventus away at Parma and Chievo at home against Siena. I'll stay off the other fixtures though because I want to see things settled first.

[Sco]

Im with you on that one, as soon as I saw the odds for that game I thought there would be goals in it. Worth a shot i suppose.

Sco

[w1zard]

going throw my £30 winnings from manu drawing at a wee treble

Inter, Juventus and Ac.Milan for me

[collymore44]

hi this is my first post,but i thought i would let you know that inter may have 4 first team defenders missing so i wouldnt throw them in a treble till you defo know whos playing

[w1zard]

too late :/ lol
/me puts blind faith in adriano scoring 24 by halftime

[christianu]

Udinese look too good to miss at an outstanding 2/1

Udinese's away record: 3rd best in the division

W: 5 D: 2 L: 1

Sampdorias home record: 16th best in the division

W: 3 D: 1 L: 4

Now a look at the Serie A form table

1st: Udinese won 5 drew 1 lost 0
6th: Sampdoria won 3 drew 2 lost 1

3rd placed Udinese are the best team right now in Serie A on form, they have a fantastic away record, losing just one and winning five of eight away games! Sampdoria have a terrible home record, one of the worst in the division and defintely of the top half.

2/1 looks fantastic value.

[Galea78]

AC Milan V Lecce 1 -1.5 @2.00 8/10
This seems great value to me, Lecce have a half decent record with only 2 defeats away but those 5 draws mostly involve outscoring thier opposition, this they have somehow managed in many games even without last years star striker. This time however they face one of the finest defences in the world, very organised, great keeper, it will be much harder to score 2 or 3 goals if they even get any, AC have conceded just 9 in 16.

Lecce end 2004 by losing 1-4 at home to (normally) low scoring Sampdoria and the performances in the latter part of 2004 were getting more and more shakey IMO.

AC have a full strength squad (Pippo long term absentee) and the atmosphere will be hot in Milan with Andriy showing off his golden boots or something pre-kick off.

My prediction is a 3-1 home win to allow for the Lecce goal that so often comes, will also take over2.5 on this game.

also have feeling Sampdoria @2.37 will beat high flyers Udinese at home and @2.34 this is nice value

goodluck all

[kk_ghost]

Originally Posted by qlpol

Cagliari - Messina

Cagliari is the best home team after Juventus in the Serie A with a record of 5/2/1, the loss coming from AC Milan. Messina on the other hand has a bad away record of 1/3/4, the only win coming from Siena. Cagliari and Messina both ended the first part of the season with medium form figures, but with the winter break they don't play an important role imo.
1.8 for the homewin looks good, cover with the draw is possible but I'm going for a straight homewin here.

Bet : Cagliari @ 1.79

Hi! I'm not sure Cagliari is a good bet today.. I agree 1,80 is nice for a strong home team that hosts a poor side, but if you look closer at table, results and stats what can you see?
You can qualify Messina as a low table team, while Cagliari was 4th/5th in the table till few weeks ago, BUT Messina has only 4 pts less than team from Sardinia..
Cagliari is very strong at home, BUT what teams has it hosted so far?
Brescia, Bologna, Siena, Parma (16th, 17th, 18th and 19th); Chievo (wonderful game); Livorno (scoreless draw, but Livorno with 10 men); Inter (Cagliari threw away a 2 goal lead); Milan (only lost game).
In last 3 matches Cagliari conceded 8 goals...

Finally here is the recent H2H:

2003-2004 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 1-1

2002-2003 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 0-2

2002-2001 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 0-0

IMHO Cagliari has surely chances to win today, but I fear an 1-1 draw is behind the corner.. Anyway are you sure 1,80 is a fair price?

GL

KK_

[cluelessG]

Lazio - Roma is always a very hot and normally unpredictable match but right now I believe Roma is much better than Lazio. Lazio are not known for having a solid defence (by Italian standards) and Totti/Cassano should punish them. The new coach of Lazio might be the surprise factior here but I'm going for away win and will think about covering the draw.

Lecce are always up for an Over 2.5 match but the odds are not very attractive. Probably a good bet for accumulators.

Samp - Udine is a no bet for me. Udinese is a strong team but Samp are no mugs either.

[qlpol]

Originally Posted by kk_ghost

Hi! I'm not sure Cagliari is a good bet today.. I agree 1,80 is nice for a strong home team that hosts a poor side, but if you look closer at table, results and stats what can you see?
You can qualify Messina as a low table team, while Cagliari was 4th/5th in the table till few weeks ago, BUT Messina has only 4 pts less than team from Sardinia..
Cagliari is very strong at home, BUT what teams has it hosted so far?
Brescia, Bologna, Siena, Parma (16th, 17th, 18th and 19th); Chievo (wonderful game); Livorno (scoreless draw, but Livorno with 10 men); Inter (Cagliari threw away a 2 goal lead); Milan (only lost game).
In last 3 matches Cagliari conceded 8 goals...

Finally here is the recent H2H:

2003-2004 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 1-1

2002-2003 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 0-2

2002-2001 (Serie B)
Cagliari - Messina 0-0

IMHO Cagliari has surely chances to win today, but I fear an 1-1 draw is behind the corner.. Anyway are you sure 1,80 is a fair price?

GL

KK_

I have to admit I made a mistake concerning the away record of Messina, the 1/3/4 record is correct but i accidently looked at their opponents in home-games. The win comes from San Siro where they beat Ac Milan 1-2, quite impressing. I have to admit while the record is not good, they played some strong teams away.
Anyway, the bet is already made and I still can't see Cagliari lose, but like I said in my first post and kk-ghost said later cover with the draw is maybe a better option then going for a straight home win. Good luck

[denisl]

2 long shot bets for me today:

Inter dont seem to defend well, some unconfirmed news that a defender or 2 may be missing, i know cordoba is suspended anyway so just for fun:

Livorno/Inter HT/FT @ 34

and Juventus should win today, a couple of old boys playing against their old club, i believe that thuram is suspended. parma are in trouble but i fancy a tight 1st half:

Draw/Juventus HT/FT @ 4.8

[mr chips]

Been trying these lately and going for a 2way double

Atalanta vs Fiorentina X2
Lazio vs Roma X2

4 doubles at 10pts each. Min profit 15pts. Max profit 45pts

[ciggs]

Originally Posted by mr chips

Been trying these lately and going for a 2way double

Atalanta vs Fiorentina X2
Lazio vs Roma X2

4 doubles at 10pts each. Min profit 15pts. Max profit 45pts

i am on your double.
i hope Atlanta wont be able to beat Fiorentina at home.
Matches are going for Halftime and this match still 0-0.
LAzio is in bad period in this year.And Roma also is in the same way...
But roma started to be as a team.
and they are better than Lazio now.
Away match is only disadvantage for them but Draw No Bet Roma is reasonable

[Galea78]

Originally Posted by Galea78

AC Milan V Lecce 1 -1.5 @2.00 8/10

My prediction is a 3-1 home win to allow for the Lecce goal that so often comes, will also take over2.5 on this game.

also have feeling Sampdoria @2.37 will beat high flyers Udinese at home and @2.34 this is nice value

goodluck all

AC Milan 5 Lecce 2
Sampdoria 2 Udinese 0

went for treble myself and included over2.5 for Juve...

[mr chips]

Late goal from Atalanta kills it!

Roma single anyone ? hehe!

[denisl]

Late parma goal to kill me off. well thats the way the cookie crumbles...whatever that means.

The whole bank onto Roma!

[mr chips]

Yep Roma been well backed for most of day. Read however the have a few injury concerns. Perhaps draw cover?

[Mr Intensity]

Quick question guys. Milan now 2 points off the top, who do you fancy for the title??

I've got some Ante Post action on Juventus but wondering should I lay it off or let it ride.:o

[Sco]

Im still gonna go with Juve, although maybe it will be closer than I thought.


Sco