Italy - All leagues (7-10 April 06)

[davidmphill]

Serie A Week 33 - 9/4/06 (14.00 UK)
Siena - Lazio
Stadio Franchi
Siena and Lazio will both be hoping to bounce back from disappointing draws when they meet at the Artemio Franchi. The Roman outfit’s was the most spectacular as they took a two-goal lead in the first 10 minutes before throwing it away. Even that wasn’t the end though as they took the lead again before a Massimo Oddo own goal gifted Empoli a 93rd minute equaliser. The home side also took the lead in their game with Reggina before some sloppy defending allowed Nicola Amoruso to earn his team a point. Lazio still have everything to play for this season. While most people expected another campaign of rebuilding from the Biancocelesti they are now just two points behind Chievo and UEFA Cup qualification. With the fans desperate for a return to European competition they will expect the team to go all out for the win here in a last gasp attempt to catch the Flying Donkeys. Their recent improvement has seen Macedonian striker Goran Pandev emerge as the hero as his three goals in their last four matches have proved vital. Unfortunately he is suspended for this match and Simone Inzaghi and Fabio Firmani are both out through injury, with the latter likely to play no further part in their season. Siena will feel fairly secure in their mid-table spot and will be confident that they have done enough to avoid any late push by the lower relegation candidates. They are unlikely to lose an eight-point lead in six games, especially with five other teams between them and the drop. That is just as well because their recent form has been poor despite the return to form of Albanian centre forward Erjon Bogdani. They will need to make sure they don’t get too complacent as anything is still possible, even if it is highly unlikely that they will find themselves once again embroiled in the relegation dogfight at this late stage.
Siena: Mirante; Negro, Legrottaglie, Portanova, Falsini; Alberto, Paro, Vergassola; Locatelli; Chiesa, Bogdani Lazio: Peruzzi; Oddo, Siviglia, Cribari, Zauri; Behrami, Dabo, Liverani, Mauri; Di Canio, Rocchi

[davidmphill]

Hope the previews help. Taken from Channel4
I for one find them very useful.

[adythom]

Originally Posted by Simon

Yes, I agree with you Tulenos and I don´t bet those "fixed" games at all because I don´t like those Still, you have to be careful when think of betting those Serie A games with low odds on the draw.

Serie A last season, odds for the draw were very low on these games ->

Cagliari-Reggina Avg. odds for draw 2,14 FT 1-1
Messina-Sampdoria Avg. odds for draw 2,24 FT 2-2
Cagliari-Palermo Avg. odds for draw 1,67 FT 0-0
Livorno-Siena Avg. odds for draw 1,84 FT 3-6
Reggina-Bologna Avg. odds for draw 1,59 FT 1-1
Messina-Cagliari Avg. odds for draw 2,14 FT 2-1
Palermo-Reggina Avg. odds for draw 1,70 FT 1-1
Roma-Lazio Avg. odds for draw 1,88 FT 0-0
Lazio-Fiorentina Avg. odds for draw 1,96 FT 1-1
Livorno-Juventus Avg. odds for draw 1,92 FT 2-2
Parma-Siena Avg. odds for draw 2,24 FT 0-0
Reggina-Lecce Avg. odds for draw 1,42 FT 2-2
Messina-Livorno Avg. odds for draw 2,00 FT 1-1
Palermo-Lazio Avg. odds for draw 1,46 FT 3-3
Roma-Chievo Avg. odds for draw 1,84 FT 0-0


15 games, 1 home win, 1 away win, 13 draws

there are punters who use this very forum who will be backing the unders at lower odds and with less statistical support than you've just given us Simon!

cheers! and I'm glad I'm not the only one who feels as bad as I do for taking money in this way!

and you're right about betting on any game with odds that look suspect!

[adythom]

Originally Posted by Archie

What do you reckon, PARMA & LAZIO games clear draws??

be very careful Archie as Tulenos and archaeus have pointed out!

this kind of thing can jump up and bite you on the butt!

though the fella' Simon has offered some fair evidence- IMO!

and the Reggina v Siena match last week ended all square- with the draw on at about evens!

the problem comes with all the connections made,both factual and mythical, between these obvious fixes and the offered odds!

it's entirely possible that having seen proof of this in last weeks match that the possibilty of future fixes takes on a life of it's own! and by themselves, in this way, force the odds down!

if you see what I mean?

as was mentioned last week - these fictional and false expectations are called, I believe, "Ghost Bets" !

[PompeyPunt]

Juventus -0.75 (2.02) @ Pointbet

Juve are going to be hurting bad after the game against Arsenal, they were simply appalling to be honest, they offered nothing all over the pitch, in either leg. Serie A is what's left to them, and a win here will restore pride and also confirm the title that is almost certainly going to be their's anyway. Most of the Viola's good work comes in Florence, and i think they will struggle in this trip to Turin, which is going to be bad for them as it seems Roma, who are hot on their heals, have a nailed on 3 points at home. Juve are still the best side in this league by miles, i think Fiorentina peaked early and tailed off, and this is gonna be a home win. 5/10 stakes.

[Archie]

Originally Posted by adythom

be very careful Archie as Tulenos and archaeus have pointed out!

this kind of thing can jump up and bite you on the butt!

though the fella' Simon has offered some fair evidence- IMO!

and the Reggina v Siena match last week ended all square- with the draw on at about evens!

the problem comes with all the connections made,both factual and mythical, between these obvious fixes and the offered odds!

it's entirely possible that having seen proof of this in last weeks match that the possibilty of future fixes takes on a life of it's own! and by themselves, in this way, force the odds down!

if you see what I mean?

as was mentioned last week - these fictional and false expectations are called, I believe, "Ghost Bets" !

But as one can say whenever there was low odds on the draw it always ended up in a draw. the udinese game is similar in situation like the other 2 but the odds arent lowered, which means nobody is certain

[goldenleg]

Parma - Lazio is not available on Canbet, but Siena - Lazio is there at 2.25

I think I will give it try with an average wager. I don't want to be kicking myself if I miss out.

[korezz]

ac milan is a sure home win for me! they need to keep the 2 point distance from inter b4 they encounter them on saturday. moral in milan's clan is obviously very high and their supporters will be jubilant ..im betting full stakes on the six times european champs!!

[Archie]

I am a bit fazed by the high odds of the Siena vs Lazio game.

What do you guys think, since nobody took it off their coupons?

[archaeus]

i think its gonna be helluva game archie

[adythom]

Parma and Reggina were both involved in dodgy deals last week -IMO! so if the draws on it's on there -IMO!

[archaeus]

im just not buying this shit, if the odds drop bellow 1.4 @ exchanges i will lay the draw with all my betfair bank ....

[otravez]

Originally Posted by archaeus

im just not buying this shit, if the odds drop bellow 1.4 @ exchanges i will lay the draw with all my betfair bank ....

I would say that a draw is a lot more than probable here - these two teams are not likely to leave it for chance to decide this match.
Parma and Reggina are "friends clubs", and they have nothing but good intentions for one another.
Parma is safe from being relegated. Reggina wishes to reach 40 Pts - the magic number to be safe from serie B.
Moreover - exactly 1 year ago - 11/4/2005 - Parma was in a bad situation in serie A, and was facing the peril of relegation (eventually saved by playoffs with Bologna), but defeated Reggina away 3-1! Seems like Parma owes Reggina one. And a draw will be more than enough for Reggina this time.

Italian SNAI offers 1,50 for the draw. I would take anything higher at 8/10.

[Far East Info]

Lower odds doesnt guarantee a draw .....

U must also have to look into asianhandicap ....

What are the odds ???

A fixed draw game will be like this .....

Asianhandicap.... LEVEL BALL win 60-70 like that .....

"Even" must be lower than draw odds.....

Live betting must on LEVEL BALL when both are level on score....
and when somebody score...then The opponents must give 1/2 or more ...that only means fixed..........



About last year Livorno vs Siena... match.....the LIVE BETTING WAS 1/4 ......Asianhandicap never suggest it as a draw.......



Like last week ...Triestina vs Pescara.....draw odds is low as 1.90 ..still Triestina giving 1/4 handicap.......that means no draw for sure......

[otravez]

I'm not sure I catch your drift here...

But I don't think there is any resemblance between Triestina-Pescara and Parma-Reggina.

Triestina and Pescara were competeing one against the other. Pescara has beaten Triestina earlier this season, and Triestina got her revenge, as well as much needed points.

Not the case here in Parma-Reggina. Nothing much to gain for either one of them by winning. I am not talking about a fixed draw, as much as lack of motivation to win.

A draw here is not only probable, but logical.

[adythom]

Originally Posted by Far East Info

Lower odds doesnt guarantee a draw .....

U must also have to look into asianhandicap ....

What are the odds ???

A fixed draw game will be like this .....

Asianhandicap.... LEVEL BALL win 60-70 like that .....

"Even" must be lower than draw odds.....

Live betting must on LEVEL BALL when both are level on score....
and when somebody score...then The opponents must give 1/2 or more ...that only means fixed..........



About last year Livorno vs Siena... match.....the LIVE BETTING WAS 1/4 ......Asianhandicap never suggest it as a draw.......



Like last week ...Triestina vs Pescara.....draw odds is low as 1.90 ..still Triestina giving 1/4 handicap.......that means no draw for sure......

OK Far East Info,
explain to me, if you can, the relationship between level ball on the AH and a draw on the 1X2 market?

[adythom]

if anyone can find me a bookies that will offer either a 0.5 on the AH or a double chance punt on any of these games I'll be eternally grateful!

[adythom]

"meanwhile back at the ranch!"

Roma v Lecce seems to offer a fair chance of the overs bet with Roma without a clean sheet in 5 and Lecce who haven't failed to score in 6!
and they've only played out 4 <2.5gls in 13 meetings!

H2H's 5-1-0 and 8-5-0 in total would seem to back the odds up as do the tables;

Roma 9-3-4 F31,A20! at HT 10-3-3! and vBottomhalf 12-3-3 F38,A18

Lecce 2-1-13 F10,A30! at HT 2-5-9! and vTophalf 2-3-10 F10,A27

it's that funny time of year again when the doomed suddenly start getting results - but with Fio' away at Juve' and fourth spot up for grabs Roma will be well up for this I'm sure!

top four for champs league in Italy isn't it?

anyway seems like plenty of reasons there to fancy that 1.4 for Roma!

any news or views most welcome!

[adythom]

AC can probrably be backed at home to Chievo also @1.4 though it's been drawn in 2 of last 4 here!

and this is post champs league and we all know what they say about that!

and just to prove my memory is still working- can anyone tell me if Juve' and Fio' have a bit of an unhappy history? something to do with Baggio?

I could be wrong of course but a volatile atmosphere on he terraces can hardly be conducive to a lazy game on the field! and as Juve' haven't won at home in weeks and have just been dumped out of the CL -who knows?

[Archie]

What about Siena vs Lazio?