Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) - The Punters Lounge

davidmphill · 26-04-2006, 11:23

Sunday 30 April 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
AC Milan v Livorno (14:00 BST)	1.25	6.10	22.00	101%
Cagliari v Parma (14:00 BST)	1.51	4.25	9.50	101%
Chievo v Roma (14:00 BST)	3.55	3.33	2.32	102%
Empoli v Inter Milan (14:00 BST)	5.30	3.45	1.87	102%
Lazio v Lecce (14:00 BST)	1.25	6.10	21.00	102%
Palermo v Fiorentina (14:00 BST)	4.00	3.31	2.14	102%
Reggina v Messina (14:00 BST)	2.04	3.35	4.50	102%
Sampdoria v Udinese (14:00 BST)	3.20	1.77	6.00	105%
Siena v Juventus (14:00 BST)	10.51	4.40	1.45	102%
Treviso v Ascoli (14:00 BST)	4.00	2.25	2.75	106%

Friday 28 April 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Catania v Verona (19:45 BST)	1.45	3.55	5.10	117%
Saturday 29 April 2006
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Atalanta v Brescia (15:00 BST)	2.10	2.44	4.50	111%
Bari v Pescara (15:00 BST)	1.75		7.00
Bologna v Albinoleffe (15:00 BST)	1.70	3.25
Cesena v Modena (15:00 BST)	2.24	3.40	2.70	112%
Crotone v Triestina (15:00 BST)	1.65	3.00	6.00	111%
Mantova v Ternana (15:00 BST)		2.94	7.00
Piacenza v Catanzaro (15:00 BST)	1.37	4.00	8.00	111%
Torino v Avellino (15:00 BST)	1.35	4.00	8.40	111%
Vicenza v Cremonese (15:00 BST)	1.25	4.00	9.40	116%

Ringabell · 26-04-2006, 23:12

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	Cagliari - AC Parma
Selection	Parma
Strength	5/10
Date	30/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	canbet @ 8.50 (Back)
Reasoning	10 Parma 35 12 9 14 43 - 53 45 17 Cagliari 35 7 14 14 37 - 50 35 2006-04-22 Ascoli - Cagliari 2 - 2 2006-04-15 Cagliari - Juventus 1 - 1 2006-04-09 Cagliari - Palermo 1 - 1 2006-04-02 Sampdoria - Cagliari 1 - 1 2006-03-26 Cagliari - Reggina 0 - 2 2006-04-22 Parma - Siena 1 - 1 2006-04-15 Sampdoria - Parma 1 - 2 2006-04-09 Parma - Reggina 4 - 0 2006-04-02 Udinese - Parma 2 - 0 2006-03-25 Parma - Inter 1 - 0 Parma already guaranteed Serie A football next term and have just pride to play for A win may be enough to keep Cagliari amongst the elite. Team news Cagliari - Antonio Langella, Nelson Abeijon, Michele Canini and Francesco Bega are all suspended. Ex-Parma midfielder Alessandro Budel is available again after his ban and Diego Lopez returns from injury Team news Parma - Filippo Savi, Marco Delvecchio, ex-Cagliari striker Andrea Pisanu and Colombian Jorge Bolano are all out. However, Giuseppe Cardone may recover and Damiano Ferronetti returns after a lengthy spell on the sidelines. Juve-bound winger Marco Marchionni is suspended. Prev meetings - 2005-12-21 Parma - Cagliari 1 - 0 2005-03-06 Parma - Cagliari 3 - 2 2004-10-27 Cagliari - Parma 2 - 1 2000-03-25 Cagliari - Parma 2 - 3 1999-11-21 Parma - Cagliari 3 - 1 1999-04-03 Parma - Cagliari 1 - 1 1998-11-21 Cagliari - Parma 1 - 0 1997-03-02 Parma - Cagliari 3 - 2 1996-10-13 Cagliari - Parma 0 - 1 1996-05-12 Cagliari - Parma 2 - 0 1996-01-14 Parma - Cagliari 4 - 0 1995-02-19 Cagliari - Parma 2 - 0 1994-09-18 Parma - Cagliari 2 - 1 1994-04-17 Parma - Cagliari 3 - 1 1993-12-12 Cagliari - Parma 0 - 4 If Parma had motivation in this game you would probable get something like odds 3-4 - Playing without motivation isn`t always negative - You play without pressure and have nothing to loose while the opposite are playing with pressure and have everything to loose - Puting you money on `teams without motivation` is always a risk but when bookies offer these great prizes it`s a must for me - Thevisitors@8.50@Canbet 5/10 Ht@Ft@Bluesquare away/away 3/10

meatman · 26-04-2006, 23:26

nice write up Ringabell

GL

adythom · 27-04-2006, 09:14

sporting odds are offering 9.5 for Parma Ringabell!
and betfair have 19.5 for the 2/2 Ht/Ft double.

though there is that motivation thing and the small chance there's something going on behind the scenes of course;

so the 1.95 +1gl from 365 seems mighty generous aswell-IMO!

and note also that of those 14 losses Cagliari have suffered only 2 were at home!

kojic2003 · 27-04-2006, 09:21

If I'm not wrong, Milan(who lacked the motivation) were priced around 4.00-5.00 at Reggina a couple of seasons ago!?They had most of their top players on the pitch(Sheva and so on...), but still lost the game.It's all about motivation in Italy(well, mostly...), so there's absolutely no value in Parma no matter what.Calgiari had 2 players sent off at Ascoli last week, they were 0:1 down, but all of sudden they managed to score 2 goals and at the end it was the Ascoli side who had to fight for a draw...They done it...from unexisting penalty.

That's Serie A...

NO BET!The price on Calgiari is extremely poor, but under these circumstances the home win is a very likely outcome.

adythom · 27-04-2006, 09:29

this weeks silly italian draw odds are offered on the Sampdoria v Udinese match but as we've seen so often in the last few weeks it doesn't neccessarily mean the game will be drawn!

Udinese are in by far the better form and if there is going to be a winner -IMO it's going to be them so the 2.5@centrebet on the DNB seems a fair shout and team news permitting will get some of my money!

it should be noted that a draw will mathematically guarantee safety for both sides so that does seem a likely outcome

The Myth · 28-04-2006, 15:49

Catania v Verona

Bookies rate Catania as a huge favorite in this match. Catania in second place, Verona at 16.

I don't think Verona doen't care anymore for the the Ligue. Next 3 games for them are with teams who will try for the top 3 positions & her last 2 games are away. So they could be in trouble...

On the other hand Catania doen't look good lately having only won teams at the bottom table.

I see value in Verona not losing the game

Selection: x2 3.35 Expekt

Dalas · 28-04-2006, 16:06

I agree with The Myth today.Verona not lose,odds for away win is too high.Verona (danger zone) play bad,but Catania last 10 win only 5 match.Verona on top" DRAW" in serie B with 16 match draw.Predictions for sceptic... NO BET

adythom · 28-04-2006, 16:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dalas

I agree with The Myth today.Verona not louse,odds for away win is too high.Verona (danger zone) play bad,but Catania last 10 win only 5 match.Verona on top" DRAW" in serie B with 16 match draw.Predictions for sceptic... NO BET

Dalas!

I think at odds of 3.35@expekt for the X2 double chance must be unmissable if you're really sure Verona wont lose though!

adythom · 28-04-2006, 16:30

Empoli v Inter has seen 17 goals scored in the last three meetings and Empoli have played out overs in their last five!
Inter have lost a few away matches 1-0 in recent weeks to Parma and AC but I can't see this one being so low scoring- a nailed on over -IMO!

If there's a first half +2goals offered I think this would be the game to take it!

and maybe some 1-1 cover for us cowards?

DA-go Par Adonis · 28-04-2006, 16:53

I'll be all over the draw with Sampdoria and Udinese. Both sides in need of one point normally results in each side getting one point in Italia.

cavelloman · 28-04-2006, 16:55

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	LAZIO V LECCE
Selection	OVER 2.5
Strength	5/10
Date	30/04/2006
Bookmaker/Price	Interwetten @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	Games with short price home favourites(big ability difference) have a high propensity to be high scoring. Here we have Lazio who also have gone over 2.5 goals 7 times in their last 10 games. While Lecce have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 8 away games. In the last 10 meeting of these teams 7 games have gone over.

adythom · 28-04-2006, 16:56

Lazio v Lecce
both the H2H's and recent form would suggest that this one is looking like a goal fest!

AC v Livorno
should see some goals aswell -IMO!
Livorno have experienced a collapse in form rarely seen outside fairy tales and AC "really" want these points!
Ht/Ft double and overs for me here!

Palermo v Fiorentina
the away side will be the more motivated for this one with Roma [still screwing me every week by failing to win] breathing down their necks they'll be out all guns blazing for this one I'm sure!
I think they can be trusted with a few quid to win - with a few more quid as draw cover, just to be sure!

Chievo v Roma
perhaps the same thing can be said about Roma in their visit to the flying donkeys!
though I'm about through with Roma in all honesty - they are a cracking away side with only 2 losses on the road all season!

Chievo five points clear in 7th! with the miserably out of form Livorno being in 8th and visiting AC, and Palermo 1pt, 10goals and one more place behind giving Chievo some sense of security perhaps? what do you think?

any thoughts or other infor' much appreciated!

cheers and good luck!

NB; stat based picks only- get the team news first!

goldenleg · 28-04-2006, 17:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by adythom

Empoli v Inter has seen 17 goals scored in the last three meetings and Empoli have played out overs in their last five!
Inter have lost a few away matches 1-0 in recent weeks to Parma and AC but I can't see this one being so low scoring- a nailed on over -IMO!

If there's a first half +2goals offered I think this would be the game to take it!

and maybe some 1-1 cover for us cowards?

Inter always seem to play for 1-0 wins away from home and I don't think Empoli will be scoring as freely against Inter as they have in recent weeks. I would be careful.

goldenleg · 28-04-2006, 17:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by adythom

Chievo v Roma
perhaps the same thing can be said about Roma in their visit to the flying donkeys!
though I'm about through with Roma in all honesty - they are a cracking away side with only 2 losses on the road all season!

Chievo five points clear in 7th! with the miserably out of form Livorno being in 8th and visiting AC, and Palermo 1pt, 10goals and one more place behind giving Chievo some sense of security perhaps? what do you think?

Even though Chievo are pretty safe to earn the last UEFA Cup spot, they are very strong at home - only 1 loss this season. And I think Roma are fighting a losing battle for the Champions League - they still have to play in Milan on the last day.

adythom · 28-04-2006, 19:09

Cheers goldenleg!

Roma have been driving me loony over the last few weeks - luckily I've been backing them double chance so I've done OK!
and TBH I'd be surprised to see them lose this even though they're visiting the excellent home team Chievo!

The Myth · 28-04-2006, 21:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Myth

Catania v Verona

Bookies rate Catania as a huge favorite in this match. Catania in second place, Verona at 16.

I don't think Verona doen't care anymore for the the Ligue. Next 3 games for them are with teams who will try for the top 3 positions & her last 2 games are away. So they could be in trouble...

On the other hand Catania doen't look good lately having only won teams at the bottom table.

I see value in Verona not losing the game

Selection: x2 3.35 Expekt

Catania-Verona 0-0
What a great result, very pleased with this one

I hope u had some of this Dalas

archaeus · 28-04-2006, 21:55

great pick Myth

XAN · 29-04-2006, 22:48

Empoli - Inter
In Inter CAMBIASSO, Veron, Toldo,MIHAJLOVIC,ZANETTI,RECOBA are injured.ADRIANO is questionable.

I dunno how they want to win Empoli

but to my mind that's will be over as well
Siena - Juventus
In Juve Vierra and Nedved are back and only CAMORANESI is suspended
Siena misses an important player Tudor
Juve win 9/10

Zozo the Duke · 30-04-2006, 01:50

Siena - Juventus
Pick: Juventus (-1) AH
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.74
Bookmaker: Pointbet

Juve played two matches in Siena and won both. Last season 1:3 and previous season 0:3. In this match Juventus is entering after small result crises. They failed to win in their last 7 matches, including CL matches against Arsenal. Juventus drew in their last 5 matches. Juventus is not Juventus if they not take points when they desperately need. Capello is great coach and for sure knows what to do in this kind of situations.
Siena is small team in Italy and they are grouped in teams from which, in the beginning of the season, was expected to finish in low-mid table.

Siena is playing mediocre football and they made some problems to some teams, but they are far away from Juventus class. Siena also plays in bad form and from their last win gone 6 matches.

Camoranesi is suspended for Juve, but I don’t think that this absence will be of huge importance. Yes, he is important midfielder, but I think he is replaceable. The main Juve problem in past matches was slow midfield and poor form of the attackers, especially Ibrahimovic. This season, Juve took many points thanks to great aerial ability of their defenders, but I hope today he match will be decided with two or three goals in Siena’s net and that I would not hope Juve defenders to score from set pieces again.
Manager duel: Capello’s team meet De Canio’s team 7 times in history and Capello won 6 of them and only once they split points. I expect Capello’s domination to continue after this match, because he is leading much better team.

I read 2-3 years ago that Siena and Juventus are having very good relations and if we add that Juventus is much better team and having need of 3 points in this match (because Milan is only 3 pts behind them) I think that they will take all advantages and win easily.

Just to add that Juventus have won all mutual matches in recent history.

Previous meetings:

ISA 21-12-2005 Juventus 2 - 0 Siena
ISA 27-02-2005 Juventus 3 - 0 Siena
ISA 23-10-2004 Siena 0 - 3 Juventus
ISA 16-05-2004 Siena 1 - 3 Juventus
ISA 18-01-2004 Juventus 4 - 2 Siena
IC 18-12-2003 Juventus 2 - 1 Siena
IC 25-11-2003 Siena 1 - 2 Juventus

26-04-2006, 23:26	#3 (permalink)
meatman meaty punter Join Date: 26 Feb 2005 Age: 21 Posts: 13,043 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 2	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) nice write up Ringabell GL __________________ The Meatman - always looking out for a meaty price to get his teeth into

27-04-2006, 09:14	#4 (permalink)
adythom God Punter Join Date: 07 Oct 2005 Posts: 2,539	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) sporting odds are offering 9.5 for Parma Ringabell! and betfair have 19.5 for the 2/2 Ht/Ft double. though there is that motivation thing and the small chance there's something going on behind the scenes of course; so the 1.95 +1gl from 365 seems mighty generous aswell-IMO! and note also that of those 14 losses Cagliari have suffered only 2 were at home! Last edited by adythom; 27-04-2006 at 09:29.

27-04-2006, 09:21	#5 (permalink)
kojic2003 God Punter Join Date: 27 Oct 2004 Posts: 2,255	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) If I'm not wrong, Milan(who lacked the motivation) were priced around 4.00-5.00 at Reggina a couple of seasons ago!?They had most of their top players on the pitch(Sheva and so on...), but still lost the game.It's all about motivation in Italy(well, mostly...), so there's absolutely no value in Parma no matter what.Calgiari had 2 players sent off at Ascoli last week, they were 0:1 down, but all of sudden they managed to score 2 goals and at the end it was the Ascoli side who had to fight for a draw...They done it...from unexisting penalty. That's Serie A... NO BET!The price on Calgiari is extremely poor, but under these circumstances the home win is a very likely outcome.

27-04-2006, 09:29	#6 (permalink)
adythom God Punter Join Date: 07 Oct 2005 Posts: 2,539	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) this weeks silly italian draw odds are offered on the Sampdoria v Udinese match but as we've seen so often in the last few weeks it doesn't neccessarily mean the game will be drawn! Udinese are in by far the better form and if there is going to be a winner -IMO it's going to be them so the 2.5@centrebet on the DNB seems a fair shout and team news permitting will get some of my money! it should be noted that a draw will mathematically guarantee safety for both sides so that does seem a likely outcome

28-04-2006, 15:49	#7 (permalink)
The Myth Hardcore Punter Join Date: 16 Apr 2006 Posts: 49	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Catania v Verona Bookies rate Catania as a huge favorite in this match. Catania in second place, Verona at 16. I don't think Verona doen't care anymore for the the Ligue. Next 3 games for them are with teams who will try for the top 3 positions & her last 2 games are away. So they could be in trouble... On the other hand Catania doen't look good lately having only won teams at the bottom table. I see value in Verona not losing the game Selection: x2 3.35 Expekt Last edited by The Myth; 28-04-2006 at 16:26.

28-04-2006, 16:06	#8 (permalink)
Dalas Newbie Punter Join Date: 24 Apr 2006 Location: Croatia Posts: 5	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) I agree with The Myth today.Verona not lose,odds for away win is too high.Verona (danger zone) play bad,but Catania last 10 win only 5 match.Verona on top" DRAW" in serie B with 16 match draw.Predictions for sceptic... NO BET Last edited by Dalas; 28-04-2006 at 16:25.

28-04-2006, 16:30	#10 (permalink)
adythom God Punter Join Date: 07 Oct 2005 Posts: 2,539	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Empoli v Inter has seen 17 goals scored in the last three meetings and Empoli have played out overs in their last five! Inter have lost a few away matches 1-0 in recent weeks to Parma and AC but I can't see this one being so low scoring- a nailed on over -IMO! If there's a first half +2goals offered I think this would be the game to take it! and maybe some 1-1 cover for us cowards?

28-04-2006, 16:53	#11 (permalink)
DA-go Par Adonis Junior Punter Join Date: 03 Aug 2005 Posts: 60	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) I'll be all over the draw with Sampdoria and Udinese. Both sides in need of one point normally results in each side getting one point in Italia.

28-04-2006, 16:56	#13 (permalink)
adythom God Punter Join Date: 07 Oct 2005 Posts: 2,539	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Lazio v Lecce both the H2H's and recent form would suggest that this one is looking like a goal fest! AC v Livorno should see some goals aswell -IMO! Livorno have experienced a collapse in form rarely seen outside fairy tales and AC "really" want these points! Ht/Ft double and overs for me here! Palermo v Fiorentina the away side will be the more motivated for this one with Roma [still screwing me every week by failing to win] breathing down their necks they'll be out all guns blazing for this one I'm sure! I think they can be trusted with a few quid to win - with a few more quid as draw cover, just to be sure! Chievo v Roma perhaps the same thing can be said about Roma in their visit to the flying donkeys! though I'm about through with Roma in all honesty - they are a cracking away side with only 2 losses on the road all season! Chievo five points clear in 7th! with the miserably out of form Livorno being in 8th and visiting AC, and Palermo 1pt, 10goals and one more place behind giving Chievo some sense of security perhaps? what do you think? any thoughts or other infor' much appreciated! cheers and good luck! NB; stat based picks only- get the team news first!

28-04-2006, 19:09	#16 (permalink)
adythom God Punter Join Date: 07 Oct 2005 Posts: 2,539	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Cheers goldenleg! Roma have been driving me loony over the last few weeks - luckily I've been backing them double chance so I've done OK! and TBH I'd be surprised to see them lose this even though they're visiting the excellent home team Chievo! Last edited by adythom; 28-04-2006 at 19:13.

28-04-2006, 21:55	#18 (permalink)
archaeus doctor punter Join Date: 22 Sep 2005 Location: Romania Age: 28 Posts: 2,004 Awards Showcase Total Awards: 1	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) great pick Myth __________________ Punters Lounge poker champion Barry's 2006 Euro & Worldwide Football Competition winner my blog

29-04-2006, 22:48	#19 (permalink)
XAN money hunter Join Date: 18 Dec 2005 Location: Europe Posts: 125	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Empoli - Inter In Inter CAMBIASSO, Veron, Toldo,MIHAJLOVIC,ZANETTI,RECOBA are injured.ADRIANO is questionable. I dunno how they want to win Empoli but to my mind that's will be over as well Siena - Juventus In Juve Vierra and Nedved are back and only CAMORANESI is suspended Siena misses an important player Tudor Juve win 9/10 __________________ ROTW TEAM MEMBER 2006

30-04-2006, 01:50	#20 (permalink)
Zozo the Duke Toon Army Punter Join Date: 17 Feb 2006 Location: Skopje, Macedonia Age: 25 Posts: 303	Re: Italy All Leagues (28-30 April) Siena - Juventus Pick: Juventus (-1) AH Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.74 Bookmaker: Pointbet Juve played two matches in Siena and won both. Last season 1:3 and previous season 0:3. In this match Juventus is entering after small result crises. They failed to win in their last 7 matches, including CL matches against Arsenal. Juventus drew in their last 5 matches. Juventus is not Juventus if they not take points when they desperately need. Capello is great coach and for sure knows what to do in this kind of situations. Siena is small team in Italy and they are grouped in teams from which, in the beginning of the season, was expected to finish in low-mid table. Siena is playing mediocre football and they made some problems to some teams, but they are far away from Juventus class. Siena also plays in bad form and from their last win gone 6 matches. Camoranesi is suspended for Juve, but I don’t think that this absence will be of huge importance. Yes, he is important midfielder, but I think he is replaceable. The main Juve problem in past matches was slow midfield and poor form of the attackers, especially Ibrahimovic. This season, Juve took many points thanks to great aerial ability of their defenders, but I hope today he match will be decided with two or three goals in Siena’s net and that I would not hope Juve defenders to score from set pieces again. Manager duel: Capello’s team meet De Canio’s team 7 times in history and Capello won 6 of them and only once they split points. I expect Capello’s domination to continue after this match, because he is leading much better team. I read 2-3 years ago that Siena and Juventus are having very good relations and if we add that Juventus is much better team and having need of 3 points in this match (because Milan is only 3 pts behind them) I think that they will take all advantages and win easily. Just to add that Juventus have won all mutual matches in recent history. Previous meetings: ISA 21-12-2005 Juventus 2 - 0 Siena ISA 27-02-2005 Juventus 3 - 0 Siena ISA 23-10-2004 Siena 0 - 3 Juventus ISA 16-05-2004 Siena 1 - 3 Juventus ISA 18-01-2004 Juventus 4 - 2 Siena IC 18-12-2003 Juventus 2 - 1 Siena IC 25-11-2003 Siena 1 - 2 Juventus __________________ http://thepick.blogabet.com/