Germany - Bundesliga II (28-31 March 08)

[modo]

Munich 1860 - Carl Zeiss Jena and Kickers Offenbach - FC Koln ?

[McFly]

Wehen v Greuther Fürth

Promoter Wehen with a win here would reduce distance to Fürth to 1 point only and theoretically, Wehen even might get inolved in promotion fight even though nobody expects them to do so. They just lost at Köln but prooved huge morale again and only a missed penalty prevented the egaliser. Consitency of Wehen deserve much respect, performances mostly have been alright. Previous home game was lost to Kaiserslautern so that the defetless run from before got stopped. Defender Kopilas is suspended for today's game against Greuther Fürth.

The guests are in a small crisis having won once only in last six. They only gave one really poor performance in that period thugh which was last weekend at Jena where Fürth lost 0-1. It doesn't help that keeper Kirchstein is suspended and the top defenders Karaslavov and Biliskov are doubtful for this tough away match. Greuther Fürth use to react appropriately on upsets though and generally, an ambitous play can be awaited. They've been goalless in last two which is unusual, at least against Koblenz (before the Jena game) there were more than enough chances to net.

Greuther Fürth will try to dominate this game what should suit Wehen and their excellent counter attacks. The guest´s potential problems in defence may get threatening considering the dangerous and succesful set pieces from Wehen. First game ended 1-1 but Wehen clearly tend to Overs lately and Fürth probably won't be the limiting factor therefor, as a result I expect three goals at least which would be paid generously.

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 betfair 4/10


Mönchengladbach v Koblenz

Mönchengladbach reached a 1-1 at Aachen last Monday. Aachen dominated first half, then Gladbach did so. Three consecutive wins before had brought them in a comfortle position at the table top with a gap to non-promotion places. I'd say current form is average, key player Ndjeng is not in form. Mönchengladbach had some problems against St. Pauli in last home game, Koblenz can be trusted to cause similar inconvenience even though the Fohlen are defeatless in five at home.

Koblenz on the other side only lost at Köln in last six and as a whole won four of five recently. The guests have been quite efficient and succesful on the road winning at Fürth and Kaiserslauern as recent examples. Considering this, I don't understand that rather too short home odds really and there is definately some value on the guests. The Asian Handicap +1 is a nice offer as I tip on a close home win if at all. I'm considering the Over besides but haven't come to a decision, if I play it then only small anyway.

Koblenz (+1) (AH) @ 1.99 betdaq 4/10


1860 München v Jena

It showed clearly that 1860 don't have the class yet to really play for promotion. The whole team has been in bad shape in second season half widely and a balanced team doesn't depend on one man, precisely Göktan. Well, he's back now but maybe more important is that the Löwen finally convinced again what didn't prevent the defeat at Koblenz though. But this doesn't assure another good performance since the team heavily lack of consistency.

As a result, I rather like the look of the 1860 Lay as probability of draw and away win as a whole should be higher than odds suggest whereby the home odds still may be tempting at first glance. But Jena have played the better football and the deserved victory over Greuther Fürth could be the welcome and desperately needed push despite the still big gap to rescue. Previous two away games got lost but Jena didn't defeat in four before them. The outs of Kikuchi and Ziegner weaken midfield, still I give Jena good chances to avoid the defeat - yet a big stake is not recommanded.

Jena (+0.5) (AH) @ 2.02 bet365 3/10


Offenbach v Köln

Köln achieved a close but vital 2-1 win over Wehen but pressure stays high in this tough promotion fight. Previous two away performances of the FC have been alright ones but they defeated unluckily to Freiburg missing quite much and drew to Greuther Fürth. Three of five on the road were lost lately. Köln seem to have overcome a period though in which they just didn't play at the level they actually can, form curve is showing up. Coach Daum surprised last weekend letting the actual defender and former striker McKenna play in attack instead of top goalgetter Novakovic (17 goals yet). But this was no good idea and Novakovic is expected back from beginning on.

Kickers Offenbach are unbeaten in six home games and could beat Jena 2-1 and St. Pauli 4-3 lately. Offenbach use to try dominating their home games so that exciting games often happen. The draw at Kaiserslautern previous weekend was essential to hold Lautern on distance, with 5 points more the host isn't safe yet though. Bancé is still suspended so that Agritis attacks along Türker.

I'm confident of the Over 2.5 regarding how both use to play their home/away games. Also were four of five home games Overs on the host side lately while Köln also slightly tend to eventful matches away from home. Köln should have the better cards for three points but I'd avoid the normal odds considering this will be no easy one, I reckon there is value on the well-paid Köln to win by 1.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.92 betfair 5/10
Köln (-1) HC Tie @ 4.0 bet365 1/10

[McFly]

Some profit also today but the late Gladbach goal hurt me.

Jena and Paderborn won and are still alive!

[bagzi_cg]

VfL Osnabrück vs FC Kaiserslautern

I am thinking here about DRAW game.

Last game between these two teams ended 3-0 win for FC Kaiserslautern in Oct 7, 2007.

FC Kaiserslautern is in good form in last few games, drew with SC Freiburg at home 0-0, and beat SV Wehen Wiesbaden away 2-0. In last home game it was little poor, ended 1-1 with Kickers Offenbach.

On the other side VfL Osnabrück lost two last games at St Pauli Hamburg 2-1, and at home ground vs FC Augsburg 2-0. A very bad shape, poor defense and weakly attak, that is all VfL Osnabrück.

Everybody knows that these tipes of the games ends with DRAW, so my pick for today is DRAW

CHEERS

[shakeel]

osnabruck-kaiserslautern

both teams not doing well.i really dont have an idea.
what you think mc fly?

[McFly]

Osnabrück v Kaiserslautern

Osnabrück come on the back of two defeats into this six-point game. Recent 1-2 defeat at St. Pauli was very unlucky though but recent two home defeats to Hoffenheim and Augsburg deserved. Yet, are Osnabrück feared for their succes in night games where they already beat Freiburg, Köln and 1860 this season. Osnabrück hardly had a seria of really disappointing games, that's why the promoter is to find above the crucial line. Morale and spirit for offense has made them to a useful addition to this league. Despite recent two defeats have Osnabrück been powerful at home overall. Eight of eleven home games were Overs, totally sixteen of twenty-four. Manno, Aziz and Schuon are the missings to mention.

Kaiserslautern would have a five-point gap to rescue with a defeat here what is a really threatening thought for this actual big club, of course. There is chaos in the club but the team in the meanwhile should be used to occasional rumours. Play fits to relegation fight and lives from fighting, good football rarely was seen of them. But Lautern mainly are struggling in their home games to dominate and play out solid defences. On the road, they have been more succesful in the last few round and also performed quite well drawing bravely to Gladbach, Paderborn and winning at Fürth and Wehen lately. The thing is, that twenty games had less than three goals what might get a little more balanced towards season end because of taking more risk. That's what they have to do here with their big chance so that a draw would be a disappointment for them.

I think it's likely that we'll see a few goals in this one. It is looking just like a game with open visors. It's not the game of Osnabrück to go for a draw here and even though there should be many fighting elements in tonight's game, I expect both to come to enough chances. Besides are odds too good to miss actually. Outcome really seems hard to predict, market seemed to be leaning towards away win rather but Osnabrück can be trusted to make this very difficult for Lautern.

Over 2.5 goals @ 2.12 betfair 4/10

[McFly]

Osnabrück are playing impressingly but lacked of luck and precision. Hope they can keep up speed.

A lively game with a woodwork hit on each side, Reichenberger simply had to score right before HT, too.

Will get hard to win the bet now but I'm still hoping...

[keliot]

Kaiserslautern down to ten...

[keliot]

At least one more (Osnabruck) goal would be most helpful at this point.

[McFly]

It was close but shouldn't be. Kaiserslautern were just too weak to prevent the defeat.