Germany - Bundesliga II (21-23 Nov 08)

[McFly]

Friday 21 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Aachen v Osnabrück (17:00GMT)	1.52	4.50	7.50	101.35 %	Details »
Hide « Aachen v Osnabrück
Ahlen v Ingolstadt (17:00GMT)	2.32	3.50	3.50	100.25 %	Details »
Hide « Ahlen v Ingolstadt
Duisburg v FSV Frankfurt (17:00GMT)	1.50	4.40	8.00	101.89 %	Details »
Hide « Duisburg v FSV Frankfurt
Sunday 23 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Augsburg 1907 v Kaiserslautern (13:00GMT)	2.90	3.45	2.42	104.79 %	Details »
Hide « Augsburg 1907 v Kaiserslautern
Freiburg v Koblenz (13:00GMT)	1.44	4.40	7.50	105.29 %	Details »
Hide « Freiburg v Koblenz
Mainz v St. Pauli (13:00GMT)	1.57	3.80	6.50	105.34 %	Details »
Hide « Mainz v St. Pauli
Nürnberg v Greuther Fürth (13:00GMT)	2.06	3.40	3.75	104.62 %	Details »
Hide « Nürnberg v Greuther Fürth
Wehen v Oberhausen (13:00GMT)	2.16	3.40	3.75	102.37 %	Details »
Hide « Wehen v Oberhausen
Monday 24 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Hansa Rostock v 1860 München (19:15GMT)	2.05	3.30	3.60	106.86 %	Details »

[nicko]

Staked medium to high on Over 2,5 goals in Ahlen - neither side should hide, both look good forward and weird at the back.
Good luck

[Caveman]

My pick of the round is Wehen HW @ 2,20 Digibet, Primbet

SV Wehen Wiesbaden – RW Oberhausen (So 23 Nov 14:00)

I know this team is mediocre, I know they show often lack of consistency, but hey, Wehen didn't lose in 4 games now, showed character against strong home team Osnabrück to come back for 0:1 and got a Draw. They are unbeaten in 3 home games now(season 2-3-1), won 4:2 last one against strong FCK!!
Rot Weiss Oberhausen is really weak away team in 2. bundesliga, started 1-0-5 so far, lost even in Frankfurt 3:1 but won their only away win against 1860 two weeks ago. For me Wehen is stronger team, with better players and showing rising form. I don't know why, but they didn't manage to show their real potential this season so far...
Time for them to start a winning streak, perfect "victim" arrives weekend @ Brita Arena

[McFly]

RW Ahlen @ 2.25 sportingbet 4/10
Over 2.5 @ 1.75 betfair 5/10

Agree with Nicko on the over for the same reasons. Regarding table the two lively promoters shouldn't have the need to go for a draw. Especially Ahlen will try to come to a win after 4 winless home games (after 2 wins in first ones), Ingolstadt on the other side just came to the first away victory in Mainz. We should see two confident teams that live from the quite reliable offences whereby I think Ahlen should prevail. The host just puts so much efforts into play, maybe they can't do this for a whole season but so far they haven't shown any sign of weakness. Ahlen faced tough teams in recent home games and were alright anyway. Ingolstadt are lacking of strikers currently having only Demir as reliable element in the very front actually missing Lokvenc still. So offence will be an advantage for RW Ahlen probably, both defences speak for goals on both sides or at least some of one team.

Duisburg -1 HC @ 2.3 bet365 3/10

The well known Peter Neururer now is responsible for MSV Duisburg. He actually fits to the club and the environment and it's not the first time for hime being in a club in a way between the two first leagues. Undoubtedly, Duisburg have more potential that they've shown in recent past but this year's promotion rivals should be stronger simply, currently the Zebras are far away from such ambitions anyway. However, Duisburg made a very good game in Fürth last weekend and only bad luck let them loose this having been 3-1 up in 75'. Fürth were doing very hard to break them and what is more important for this game is that offence finally was an eager one again - maybe not by accident as Bommer got fired before. After 2 home defeats, the MSV should win this more or less easily, they'll however produce pressure enough I reckon. The FSV Frankfurt hardly comes to any chances so that a hammering threatens them here despite the probable focus on defence work and 2 draws on the road lately.

Aachen -1 HC @ 2.3 bet365 4/10

The Alemannia had a very good start in Oberhausen but soon the promoter could hold against and Aachen only could egalise lately. Nevertheless, I was pleased with what Ive seen from the Alemannia in the last few weeks. Consistency of play and a good forward play of Milchraum & Co makes them well worth backing these days. Osnabrück with 3 draws in a row but with shaky performances and this mostly means to be down in games. It's unlikely normally to see a strong Osnabrück on the road, defence msitakes might pay off for Aachen even though Osnabrück partly defend okay. The guets made a good game at struggling Rostock recently (2-2) but the Alemannia should be far stronger and Osnabrück clearly down at the end despite some possibly negatice tactics.

GOOD LUCK

[1907zico]

MSV Duisburg

:

FSV Frankfurt 1899

Statistics:

Matches Between Duisburg-FSV Frankfurt (at home):
-None!

Duisburg last 5 home matches:
-homewin 60%, draw 0%, awaywin 40% (3 wins,0 draw,2 loss)

FSV Frankfurt last 5 away matches:
-homewin 60%, draw 40%, awaywin 0% (0 win,2 draws,3 loss)

-Over/Under chance: over 46% - under 54%
- Duisburg Home goals: 1.58 per match
- FSV Frankfurt Away goals: 1.98 per match

Prediction from stats:
-homewin 52%, draw 24%, awaywin 24%

Alemannia Aachen

:

VfL Osnabrück

Statistics:

Matches Between Aachen-Osnabrück (at home):
-homewin 40%, draw 20%, awaywin 40%

Aachen last 5 home matches:
-homewin 80%, draw 0%, awaywin 20% (4 wins,0 draw,1 loss)

Osnabrück last 5 away matches:
-homewin 80%, draw 20%, awaywin 0% (4 win,1 draw,0 loss)

-Over/Under chance: over 40% - under 60%
- Aachen Home goals: 1.78 per match
- Osnabrück Away goals: 1.12 per match

Prediction from stats:
-homewin 67%, draw 13%, awaywin 20%

Rot Weiss Ahlen

:

FC Ingolstadt 04

Statistics:

Matches Between Ahlen-Ingolstadt (at home):
-None!

Ahlen last 5 home matches:
-homewin 20%, draw 40%, awaywin 40% (1 win,2 draws,2 loss)

Ingolstadt last 5 away matches:
-homewin 40%, draw 40%, awaywin 20% (1 win,2 draws,2 loss)

-Over/Under chance: over 33% - under 67%
- Ahlen Home goals: 1.48 per match
- Ingolstadt Away goals: 1.42 per match

Prediction from stats:
-homewin 31%, draw 38%, awaywin 31%

[1907zico]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

My bet: homewin @1.45, handicap -1 @2.05, over 2,5 @1.6 (Duisburg )


My bet: homewin @1.45, handicap -1 @2.05, under 2,5 @2.00


My bet: draw @3.25 , over 2,5 @1.60

Good luck all, nice previews McFly/Nicko

[Caveman]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

My bet: homewin @1.45, handicap -1 @2.05, under 2,5 @2.00

means you predict the outcome of this match as a 2:0 HW, right?
Paddy Power or Sportingbet offer 7,50

[1907zico]

Originally Posted by Caveman

means you predict the outcome of this match as a 2:0 HW, right?
Paddy Power or Sportingbet offer 7,50

Yeap, Aachen is a team who if it leads do not invest much into the game (like Lautern who scored one goal after another against Rostock).
We will see, since I have not much time these days I totally forgot about score prediction m8

[1907zico]

Originally Posted by Caveman

means you predict the outcome of this match as a 2:0 HW, right?
Paddy Power or Sportingbet offer 7,50

Close m8, very close - 3:1 it ended

[McFly]

Again the final minutes were very good to me, I'm a lucky boy (ok no boy anymore)

[1907zico]

McFly, last 2 or 3 weeks Friday games always 2 over 1 under (while at the beginning it was 3 over 0 under) - a trend coming up?

[McFly]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

McFly, last 2 or 3 weeks Friday games always 2 over 1 under (while at the beginning it was 3 over 0 under) - a trend coming up?

As long as there still happen 2 overs we actually can take the overs of all games then

[Caveman]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

Close m8, very close - 3:1 it ended

yeah, but HC went through

[maksim20]

I just wanted to say BIG THANKS to all of you guys for your great picks . Mcfly, nicko , zico keep up the good work I'm consistently following your over picks cheers and good luck

[McFly]

Oberhausen +0.5 AH @ 1.89 betdaq 3/10

I think there's value to lay Wehen in terms of outcome probabilities, statistically tho rather the home odds look like value. Wehen have found back to home sterngth winning over Kaiserslautern and Frankfurt, performance was alright also in the 0-0 vs. Ingolstadt. But they will hardly beat Oberhausen thru the play, actually both teams play a similar style.

The away record of Oberhausen still is a poor one with 1-0-5, the only away win happened recently at 1860. Already the 1-2 defeat to Nürnberg was a good away performance and overall, Oberhausen have become quite consistent and capable of holding against even against the big teams. This one could be easier for the guests as rather Wehen have to come - defence work of Oberhausen has become much better having conceded once only in last 3 games and the guests might be more succesful thru the possibly more dangerous counter attacks. The home win might come true but my estimations for this possibly close game are 35-35-30 in per cent, so I like odds for the Lay of the home team.

Kaiserslautern @ 2.5 stan james 3/10

I agree with Lautern being slight favourite against Augsburg despite the poor going on the road whereby performances haven't been that poor widely. 3 heavy defeats of Lautern vs. small teams plus the going of Augsburg give us acceptable odds in this one, Lautern just have to get more use of the dominace they often have on the road. Augsburg now is a more playing side what might it easier for the guests but first of all the recently very leaky defence on the road gotta improve. The hammering of Rostock might be useful generally, we should see confident guests despite the recent lacking consistency.

The run of Augsburg deserves respect for sure, they didn't loose last six. But there was a hardly a game there that convinced me, only in second half against Fürth lately, Augsburg shew some good football after poor home games against Pauli and Frankfurt. Also the 1-0 win at 1860 was rather luck than a good game of them and I expect K'lautern to be in advantage of play and force.

[1907zico]

1. FC Nürnberg : SpVgg Greuther Fürth

H2H stats:






1. FSV Mainz 05 : FC St. Pauli

H2H stats:









SC Freiburg : TuS Koblenz

H2H stats:






FC Augsburg : 1. FC Kaiserslautern

H2H stats:






Hansa Rostock : TSV 1860 München

H2H stats:




EDIT:

Translation:

Direktvergleich = H2H
Gesamtbilanz = Total matches
Heimbilanz = Home matches
Auswärtsbilanz = Away matches
Siege=Wins
Remis=Draw
Tore=Goals

Sry guys had no time to edit those with photoshop but I think its understandable

EDIT2: Why I didnt add Wehen-Oberhausen - cause they had no H2H yet.

[McFly]

FCN-Fürth Over 2.5 @ 1.83 stan james 5/10

This is a very special derby as both towns are settled close to each other, as a consequence the two teams are more than rivals and the clash is of huge importance for the fans - understandable as the loosing side would have a hard time after. The over odds differ quite much, I wouldn't play odds that are much less than the above posted. Still, I'm confident of goals, not only due to the brisance. If we look at Nürnberg, they rather tend to unders but conditions and current form differ to earlier season. The Club did hard to break stable defences, the Fürth one can't be called so. Besides, Nürnberg could improve in forward play even though they haven't reached the wished level yet. The 3-0 in Ingolstadt gave hope, the more as Nürnberg had to rely on youngsters there who did a a good job widely. Defence hasn't conceded much anymore lately but the chances they permit and the lacking experience rather speak for conceding against Greuther Fürth. The guests are defeatless in last five and probably on eye line to the host here. Of course Ive considered to lay Nürnberg here, I'd say there is value on it. So far tho I decided against an outcome bet, to grab the value I would need courage, maybe tomorrow this is the case...

[lurie]

mcfly!

agree with kaiserslautern pick!
what do you think about freiburg....i thing they will trush poor keblenz

[nicko]

I just keep checking stats, reading previews, etc. and all I see is 5 Overs today. Funny enough, the only one that worries me is Nurnberg , sorry McFly...
Will probably settle for Over 2,5 goals in:
- Augsburg. I already have this one, posted in Weekend Bets - the best attack away to a team on the rise, with hosts having enough upfront to score at least once. Kaiserslautern let far too many goals away.
- Mainz. St Pauli are the team that makes this a confident bet, the team plays forward full 90 mins, can't see them laying arms even if they are 2-0 down, away to a top team.
Will further consider the other games - McFly's preview on Nurnberg changed my mind, Freiburg can easily do the Over themselves on a good day and the odds for Over are slightly better than the ones for HW, in Wehen hosts proved they can score vs better teams, and score a lot - only problem is I haven't seen a full game of the guests yet and usually avoid such picks...
An Over Sunday, huh....

[1907zico]

It would be funny to look at 2.Bundesliga and 1.Bundesliga matches when all matches today go over.

Each one got one under and then all over

I will definetly go over on all matches