Germany Bundesliga II (11 May)

[heniek31]

Sunday 11 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
1860 München v Osnabrück (13:00BST)	2.10	3.30	3.75	104.59 %
Hide « 1860 München v Osnabrück
Carl Zeiss Jena v Kaiserslautern (13:00BST)	5.25	3.75	1.66	105.71 %
Hide « Carl Zeiss Jena v Kaiserslautern
Greuther Fürth v Augsburg 1907 (13:00BST)	2.30	3.40	3.40	102.30 %
Hide « Greuther Fürth v Augsburg 1907
Koblenz v Erzgebirge (13:00BST)	1.72	3.60	4.75	106.73 %
Hide « Koblenz v Erzgebirge
Köln v Mainz (13:00BST)	2.10	3.25	3.70	105.42 %
Hide « Köln v Mainz
M'Gladbach v Freiburg (13:00BST)	2.25	3.30	3.25	105.52 %
Hide « M'Gladbach v Freiburg
Offenbach v Hoffenheim (13:00BST)	3.00	3.30	2.20	109.09 %
Hide « Offenbach v Hoffenheim
St. Pauli v Aachen (13:00BST)	2.25	3.25	2.87	110.00 %
Hide « St. Pauli v Aachen
Wehen v Paderborn (13:00BST)	2.25	3.40	2.80	109.57 %

[Fc_ArSeNaL]

Koln - Mainz
Well,I think Koln will win,with players like Milivoje and Helmes there for sure will be some goals for Koln.If Koln win they will feel much comfortable because now Mainz are only 2p behind them...with a win on Sunday they will lead 5p to Mainz and in the last round they will be sure for promotion.Any ideas ??

[Honest Al the punters pal]

Hi Guys, I am after some advice here please. I think the Borussia M'gladbach v SC Freiburg game offers some real value with the home side quoted at 11/10 by bet 365 (it will be even better odds on the exchanges).
After their dismal performance and home loss 0 1 last time out in the Kickers Offenbach game I have noticed that Freiburg have won1 drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 6 games. They have scored 7 away goals and conceded 12 away goals....obviously their away form is very suspect.
M'Gladbach on the other hand have won 5 and drawn 1 of their last 6 games scoring 12 goals and only conceding 2!
Could any Bundesliga 2 experts tell me a few match facts please including information about players on both sides, any injuries and history between these two teams. Any other useful information would be very gratefully received as on the face of it this game looks like a home win. Reaction in the German sports press and by the team itself to the Kickers result against Freiburg would also be of interest to me. Many thanks to you all and good fortune against the bookies ALWAYS!

[El_Tren]

The main reason why M'gladbach offers as much value as it does is that they secured promotion to the Bundesliga with their win last week, so they have nothing to play for (neither does Freiburg, though, really) and will presumably have spent their week partying instead of preparing.
There are no major injury news.

That said, it still looks like a pretty good bet.

[Honest Al the punters pal]

El Tren, do you or does anyone else know through the German sports press about the actual teams players for this game? With regards to teams 'taking their foot off of the peddle' as it were at this stage of the season...I also like to think of it in another way. The pressure is now 'off' of the promoted side, there is no need for their Coach to 'rest' players anymore. Certain players will be trying even harder as they will be playing for a new or improved contract in the higher division next season. In fact there are a lot of reasons for the Champions to want to play well and 'show off' in front of their supporters but a lot of all of this depends on the way their Coach approaches the end of season? That is why I am interested to know what the sports press are writing in Germany about this game, the Coaches and their teams...
Thank you for your reply anyway...

[lucidum]

Line up in Gladbach - Freiburg is unclear, but I don't see missing motivation in Gladbach.
Maybe if they would play away, but they are playing at home in front of their own 40,000 fans and there is a promotion party planned after the game.

Gladbach coach Luhukay is a very serious coach and I doubt he will change the team in more than 2-3 positions. Even if some players who didn't play much before should get a "farewell game", these ones would be also very motivated and Gladbach doesn't have bad reservists.

If you know German language, you can get Luhukays view here:
PK 090508

Only defender Voigt is missing for Gladbach (suspension).

We should see a quite open game in this with many goals, because Freiburg has to win. Even if Freiburg wins in Gladbach and the next game, it's still very unsure if they will promote, so I rather see a "we will try - but it's hopeless" Freiburg than a fighting one.

Gladbach 1 @2.05
Over 2.5 @1.70

[ScorpioRed]

Honest Al the punters pal,

I'd like to discuss some betting related stuff privately and not mess around here, but it's not possible to send you private messages. Do you think you could enable this feature please? Thanks.

Originally Posted by Honest Al the punters pal

El Tren, do you or does anyone else know through the German sports press about the actual teams players for this.........

[tuocugenc]

freiburg was too bad last week..they didnt make a organize attack agains weak offenbach..I think their chances over!no hope for them..

[McFly]

Borussia M'gladbach v SC Freiburg

Motivation speaks for the guests to sneak something from Gladbach but I agree that we can expect Gladbach to give their best and to profit from their run. They could play against the big rival Köln theoretically but I doubt they are considering this. The Borussia scored 19 times in last five and reached a very good shape lately winning last five home games. They deserve to be champion having been most consistent overall as given quality paid out. Slight chances for promotion remained after the unlucky home defeat to Offenbach but they are really tiny as neither Köln nor Hoffenheim may win twice in what I can't see them still believing. Nevertheless, we have to expect an engaged Freiburg but there has also been the away weakness of Freiburg. They just won at 1860 mainly due to a high efficiency but often lacked of the forward-playing and attitude from the home games. We all know that Freiburg can play good football but so can the Borussia who have been in better shape besides.

M'gladbach @ 2.1 William Hill 4/10


1.FC Köln v FSV Mainz

What a promotion clash and it was likely weeks ago yet that this one may take influence on the race. Both teams can achieve to stand above the crucial line with a win after this round, Köln in that way even can make promotion perfect. One reason for them to go for victory, regarding their power and the last game at Kaiserslautern they are right to do so anyway. Köln on time are on fire and they've found to consistency thanks to the proper attitude and thus more aggression that could be seen in the Hoffenhei game. Defense look more stable lately and Broich, Antar and Helmes are the various outstanding players in offense. There hardly is a team in this league who can stop them if Köln start attacking so that they are favourite for reason, but still paid quite well. This could be the last chance for Mainz of course, in case of a Hoffenheim win over Offenbach. They weren't that bad against Aachen but could have come to more chances and missed a little luck also. But Mainz haven't been in best shape but can play better than that of course, especially in such a game. The guests might profit from an open play and from not facing an only destroying side. I don't see Mainz without a chance but preference definately has to go to the home side. Köln with six Overs in last eight and Mainz with six of seven so that the Over impression is backed by the stats. I'm quite sure of a few goals and thus have to risk some on the Over especially.

Over 2.5 @ 1.72 stan james 7/10
Köln (-0.25) AH @ 1.73 betdaq 5/10


Carl Zeiss Jena v Kaiserslautern

Relegated Jena surely want to give a last good home performance after the horrible 0-5 in Aue. So play got to improve a lot therefor what appears doubtful without Ziegner and Simak and with no hope left. Jena recently came to two home draws recently but I doubt we will see Jena still that engaged and straight. Kaiserslautern have become hard to beat besides and gained confidence should make this game easier for them. Closest rival Koblenz bizarely were added two points back after the suspension of eight ones and thus have a two-point gap to them. There are numerous teams in touch, so if Lautern can come to further points, rescue will be realistic. Three of four games have been won lately, the defeat to Mainz in previous away game was a close one.

Kaiserslautern @ 1.6 William Hill 5/10

[McFly]

Kickers Offenbach v TSG Hoffenheim

Offenbach with two points to Kaiserslautern after the win at Freiburg have the chance to possibly avoid a relegation clash at Osnabrück next week. The Kickers with the 1-7 to Gladbach in last home game, yet until the red cards, Offenbach were doing alright like they use to at home. The aggressive play let them challenge more ambitous teams at the Bieberer Berg but only to a certain degree of course. Attitude has been a positive one so that Hoffenheim have to show a performance like against Koblenz recently. Good to know that offense can work without Eduardo also. Obasi was the outstanding Hoffenheimer midweeks while also Ba is on fire. Hoffenheim lost last two away games but they were okay in Köln and had unluckily defeated to St Pauli. Offenbach with mostly Overs at home while Hoffenheim played so in last two away games at least.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.7 betfair 5/10
Hoffenheim @ 2.1 stan james 4/10


TuS Koblenz v Erzgebirge Aue

Odds don't reflect the current strengthes really. Koblenz surely are the stronger side and Aue incredibly unsuccesful on the road, but the Aue +1 AH is an alright offer. Situation for Koblenz has relaxed due to two more points by judge but they're not through yet. A good chance to make it as good as perfect. Three of four home games got won, performance accordingly convinced mostly. The guests only have theoretical chances, I guess that's another reason for their odds being so short. Aue need a win and 1860 to beat Osnbrück to still have chances after this round. They have shown mostly solid performances in the last few weeks though and despite having had no succes on the road, Aue were not always mediocre there. So a value bet on the AH for me and also a shoot on 2-3 goals as the normal Over is too short for this game and I'd rather exclude four or more goals to happen.

Total Goals 2-3 @ 2.0 Paddy Power 3/10
Aue +1 AH @ 1.8 betdaq 3/10



Greuther Fürth (-0.25) AH @ 2.05 bet365 4/10

Augsburg is the team which needs the points, still I favour Greuther Fürth thinking there is some good value on the home odds. The host surely hasn't been in good shape what underline the draws in Osnabrück and Paderbor in previous home games. Over season, chances got missed so consistently that it can't be bad luck only. After all, season of Fürth has been a good one though if we see that once again a totally new team had been bulit. Therefor, they started furiosly but unluckily, the bad form came towards season end. Play is no easy going currently, still they are more potent than Augsburg and I'm sure that the host won't lack of motivtion in the last home game. With Schröck though, they miss one of the rather rare in form players. Two defeats in a row have set Augsburg under pressure again, having in mind also the Jena home game possibly. They can't rely on that but I'm pesimistic about their chances here. Augsburg still need by far too many chances and on the road, they hardly come to any anyway. Forward play on the road is simply too hestitating and not forcing enough so that three away defeats in a row without any Augsburg goals don't surprise actually. Counters are their chance at Fürth but I rather expects them to get beaten.

St Pauli (-0.25) AH @ 2.03 betdaq 3/10

Ive burnt my fingers with Aachen as away team midweeks where they won at Mainz, still I back St Pauli small here. St Pauli have impressed at home winning last four and showing superb football. The guests defend well of course, still the passive away performances can't suceed often as they are hiding too much. This is difficult for the opponent but it also can be a matter of time only until you concede one. Counters of the Alemannia are dangerous enough though. However, I expect more force from probably more motivated St Pauli and thus lean towards the home win.

[McFly]

1860-Osnabrück could be a tough one to bet on but has value on the guests IMO. The 1-3 to Paderborn caused rumours in the 1860 environment which is no surprise as 1860 is the worst team of second season half and in slight danger again. Osnabrück surely have been playing the better football and I may have a nibble of the 1860 LAY.

Paderborn really are still in relegation fight what surely is a huge effort and prooves the excellent morale. Wouln't go so far to bet on them but they may have chances to win at Wehen, a game which is looking pretty open to me. GL

[1907zico]

Only Lautern.. damn plz

[McFly]

Strange that K'lautern haven't been forcing at all in Jena, they could have made recue perfect before the Köln game. The two Overs each failed with 2 goals even though there were chances enough in the games, efficieny of the teams has been my problem this weekend in most Overs.