Germany - Bundesliga I (28-30 March 08)

[meatman]

Friday 28 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Hansa Rostock v Wolfsburg (19:30GMT)	2.63	3.35	3.05	101%	Details »
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Saturday 29 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Bayer Leverkusen v Frankfurt (14:30GMT)	1.67	4.00	6.20	101%	Details »
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Bochum v Dortmund (14:30GMT)	2.57	3.45	3.00	101%	Details »
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Hamburger SV v Arminia (14:30GMT)	1.42	4.75	11.00	101%	Details »
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Karlsruhe v Schalke 04 (14:30GMT)	3.30	3.30	2.50	101%	Details »
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Nürnberg v Bayern München (14:30GMT)	6.50	4.00	1.67	100%	Details »
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Werder Bremen v Duisburg (14:30GMT)	1.31	5.80	13.00	101%	Details »
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Sunday 30 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Energie Cottbus v Hertha Berlin (16:00BST)	2.55	3.30	3.05	102%	Details »
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Hannover 96 v Stuttgart (16:00BST)	3.15	3.45	2.50	101%	Details »

[McFly]

Wolfsburg odds are quite attracting seeing the guests as slight favourite. Their performance against Hamburg was okayand 3 defeatless games in league proove their good run towards place 5. They weakened themselves last weekend for this one with the late red cards of Madlung and Grafite in a heated final. Squad is deep though and nominally, Wolfsburg needn't hide here having also the great victory from Bremen in mind.

Rostock used to convince at home but last 2 home performances were not of that kind, drawing with luck to Bielefeld and Hertha and hardly showing an engaged play. Together with the away defeat to Stuttgart and Dortmund and the draw at Duisburg, Rostock are winless in last 5.

Wolfsburg (0) AH @ 2.1 bet365 4/10

[Lassie]

Thanks Mc as usual. Wolves missing their top scorer Grafite along with Costa and Madlug. Hansa need to get their acts right now or would be sucked into the relegation fray. A low scoring draw would be my choice.

[McFly]

Bochum v Dortmund

Bochum are defeatless in five and drew recent three. Recent home draw to Stuttgart was more than deserved and the earlier two home wins over Leverkusen and Hannover got followed by another point at least. Bochum use to convince in their home games where their opponents find it hard to play them having a solid defence and being always good for fast counter attacks. Offense is working so well that there is no place for Epallé atm.

Dortmund are winless in league in four now and lost at Hamburg and Bremen without having scored themselves. Dortmund still play far from impressing, I don't see them and their play in good shape really, especially on the road. It won't help that Frei is out and Tinga doubtful, Valdez yet has to proove he can score regulary.

This away game may become a difficult one for Dortmund. Considering volatile Dortmund and currently pretty consistent Bochum, odds are looking like value.

Bochum @ 2.6 betfair 4/10

[McFly]

Karlsruhe v Schalke

Odds don't represent that Schalke are still lacking of a forcing play, only set pieces are saving them these days and deliverd three consecutive victories in league. Schake have been extremely volatile, recent victories over Duisburg and Hertha didn't impress at all. However, Schalke are back in race for place two and three but I believe we'll see on them rather teams like Werder, HSV and Leverkusen if the Schalke play doesn't get consistent. Defence worries have gone, Schalke are still without rhe likes of Rakitic though.

On the host side, playmaker Hajnal and Kennedy had slight problems but became fit on time. Buck and Porcello replace Mutzel and Adoube in DM. The good run of the KSC at home was stopped by Eintracht Frankfurt recently. This one and the performance at Bayern were one of the rare weak performances of them, usuallly we have seen a better KSC this season. Form ain't the best here as well possibly, still are home odds too high IMO and stand mainly for the good recent results of the guests.

Karlsruhe @ 3.25 betfair 3/10

[McFly]

Nürnberg v Bayern

The Bavarian derby can become emotional from alone, especially when it's played at Nürnberg. But Nürnberg of course are busy enough to cope with the brutal pressure due to the threatening relegation one year after the big succes and as good as established in league actually. The right mentality for relegation fight is not given really after the team developed to a playing one. That may be of use against Bayern, the same time to open against Bayern quickly can become fatal.

At least, Nürnberg can still hope for rescue thanks to the hardly pointing rivals. 9 games without a win show the generally poor shape even though Nürnberg happened to play partly good football recently. What became obvious is that they played a poor second half after a strong first one. Besides, efficiency is the currently biggest enemy, I guess. Now, they can't afford to concentrate on easier games.

Reinhardt and Mnari are out whereby especially the ladder missing hurts, Kluge has to defence as consequence. First keeper Klewer is out so that shaky Blazek returns into the line-up.

The heavy 3-0 from last season may motivate the guests, Coach Hitzfeld especially as this was his first game back as Bayern Coach. There is a gap again between Bayern and the followers so that some extra motivation besides the derby character might be useful. I don't wanna pretend there was sth dodgy but in history, Nürnberg in relegation fight profited from wins over Bayern several times. It's more likely to expect Bayern as they appeared in last game which was the impressing 2-1 over Leverkusen. And besides the Cottbus game, Bayern have been succesful convinced on the road. Season is over Hamit Altintop, I'm afraid due to a broken foot and van Bommel is out which could mean a weakmess against a probably desperately fighting team.

Bayern surely is favourite but if they win, I'd expect a close defeat for Nürnberg rather who should make Bayern some troubles at least with their undoubted class. Besides, this is the game where I expect the most goals.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1.89 betfair 4/10
Nürnberg (+1) (AH) @ 1.82 bet365 4/10

[McFly]

Originally Posted by McFly

Wolfsburg odds are quite attracting seeing the guests as slight favourite. Their performance against Hamburg was okayand 3 defeatless games in league proove their good run towards place 5. They weakened themselves last weekend for this one with the late red cards of Madlung and Grafite in a heated final. Squad is deep though and nominally, Wolfsburg needn't hide here having also the great victory from Bremen in mind.

Rostock used to convince at home but last 2 home performances were not of that kind, drawing with luck to Bielefeld and Hertha and hardly showing an engaged play. Together with the away defeat to Stuttgart and Dortmund and the draw at Duisburg, Rostock are winless in last 5.

Wolfsburg (0) AH @ 2.1 bet365 4/10

A last minute goal made it a sweet winner!

[Lassie]

Originally Posted by McFly

A last minute goal made it a sweet winner!

Well done there mate .........
however the 90' minute goal once again blew my 'draw' bet. Luckily for my 'under' bet it cancelled the lose.

[McFly]

Originally Posted by Lassie

Well done there mate .........
however the 90' minute goal once again blew my 'draw' bet. Luckily for my 'under' bet it cancelled the lose.

Well done Lassie. Unlucky to loose your excellent draw bet but good to hear you won the other!

[McFly]

Werder Bremen v Duisburg

Werder have fallen deep on place 4 and have to worry for the CL-spots even. There have been 3 winless game in league only but all of them were painful. Werder started well at Bielefeld, missed too much and became poor in second half. Play still is not as fluent as used, the returning Borowski and Jensen should help there so that not all weight gets put on Diego. Hunt should be good for the attack and mertesacker returns into defence. Frings made a good debut after the long injury break.

After 4 winless games, Duisburg are rock bottom again and signs speak for relegation. They hardly made it to break a 10 men Hannover, accordingly did play look like. Second half was better but Duisburg rarely convince over a whole game. It might tempt them to build up a defence wall what nearly brought some succes at Schalke, this time they gotta face a more ambitous play though despite the small Werder crisis.

Duisburg look like the proper opponent for Werder that should show a different face not only in terms of returning players. Small stake on the home win by 2 at least is it worth to me at the end.

Werder (-1) HC @ 1.83 bet365 3/10

[McFly]

CS Leverkusen 2-1 @ 9.4 befair 1/10
Trying my luck with a Correct Score bet as I can't find value in the Leverkusen odds. They're surely more likely to nick it but Frankfurt have prooved that times of being a mediocre team rather have gone by. The guests eve can reduce gap to Leverkusen to 2 pts with a win here. It should give a close game rather with Leverkusen as deserved winner at the end hough. First game ended 2-1 but I had my CS bet in mind anyway.

I'm still struggling with Hamburg-Bielefeld. It appears hard to loose half stake on the AH if Hamburg win it by 1, still did Hamburg show more offense spirit in their home games this year. Yet, Dortmund was beaten 1-0 only, the two home wins before were clear ones though - 4-1 over Frankfurt and 3-0 over Bochum. I might get weak and back the HSV in a way even though Bielefeld could improve a little what they've shown against Werder again. Hamburg first have to break the probably very defensive guests.

Good Luck.

[McFly]

Crazy Saturday with all the big teams struggling against potential relegaters mostly.

It seems it can't become worse for Werder anymore loosing to Duisburg.

Was hoping for Bochum to make the day balancd more or less, but again they couldn't hold two leads.

[meatman]

Shocking day here in Germany

[McFly]

Cottbus are rock bottom after the Saturday games but have the chance to leave relegation spots with a win here. The great 2-0 over Bayern stopped a mediocre run. Home games are the key for Cottbus regarding their massive away weakness. Energie's home record surely is no good one with 4 wins so far but they may profit from the poor travellers Hertha. The guests won twice on the road only but are defeatless in last 4. The 0-0 draws from Rostock and Wolfsburg show that Berlin put focus on defence and appear rather hestitating on the road. The bigger wil of Cottbus which I expect may get the decisive factor for the outcome. Pantelic returns into squad at least, defender Simunic is suspended. I've come to the conclusion that the Draw No Bet of Cottbus is worth it.

Cottbus (0) AH @ 1.8 bet365 4/10

[shakeel]

stuttgart
After a weak start Stuttgart started doing their best in the second part of the season when they managed to mark even six triumphs. Last weekend they hosted Hansa at Gottlieb Daimler stadium and won 4;1. One of the scorers was Mario Gomez who was also brilliant in the German national jersey when he scored two goals against the Swiss
Stuttgart started to play great in the second part and if they keep it up they will certainly be one of the main Champions League team
they can win here
what your take here mc fly?

[McFly]

Originally Posted by shakeel

stuttgart
After a weak start Stuttgart started doing their best in the second part of the season when they managed to mark even six triumphs. Last weekend they hosted Hansa at Gottlieb Daimler stadium and won 4;1. One of the scorers was Mario Gomez who was also brilliant in the German national jersey when he scored two goals against the Swiss
Stuttgart started to play great in the second part and if they keep it up they will certainly be one of the main Champions League team
they can win here
what your take here mc fly?

I think I won't have a bet on this one. Stuttgart have become stable but I wouldn't say that they've been great in second season half, only the last few games looked better. The 4-1 over Rostock was closer as it looks like, besides is Magnin out and in form Bastürk and Cacau doubtful. Hannover on the other side have been in poor shape so that in terms of form, Stuttgart are above them. There is not much value on the guests IMO though, the only value I can imagine was a Stuttgart win by 1.