Germany Bundesliga I (10 May)

[heniek31]

Saturday 10 May 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Arminia v Dortmund (14:30BST)	1.90	3.50	4.00	105.95 %
Hide « Arminia v Dortmund
Energie Cottbus v Hamburger SV (14:30BST)	3.00	3.40	2.37	104.85 %
Hide « Energie Cottbus v Hamburger SV
Hansa Rostock v Bayer Leverkusen (14:30BST)	3.80	3.40	2.04	104.75 %
Hide « Hansa Rostock v Bayer Leverkusen
Hertha Berlin v Nürnberg (14:30BST)	2.75	3.40	2.75	102.14 %
Hide « Hertha Berlin v Nürnberg
Karlsruhe v Bochum (14:30BST)	2.10	3.40	3.50	105.60 %
Hide « Karlsruhe v Bochum
MSV Duisburg v FC Bayern München (14:30BST)	3.50	3.50	2.10	104.76 %
Hide « MSV Duisburg v FC Bayern München
Schalke 04 v Frankfurt (14:30BST)	1.40	5.00	9.00	102.54 %
Hide « Schalke 04 v Frankfurt
Werder Bremen v Hannover 96 (14:30BST)	1.44	4.33	8.00	104.81 %
Hide « Werder Bremen v Hannover 96
Wolfsburg v Stuttgart (14:30BST)	2.65	3.40	2.70	104.18 %

[El_Tren]

copy/pasted from my blog
Feel free to critique/criticize !

Bundesliga seemed really hard to find good spots in this weekend, and I can't say I'm actually in love with any of the picks, but since I've done pretty well in the league I settled on the following four :

Dortmund +0.5 +109 at Bielefeld. Bielefeld has put together a decent run lately, but so has Dortmund since the horrible week where they got destroyed by both Bayern and Hannover. Bielefeld needs to win, desperately, and Dortmund is in no mans land, but all that said I still don't think Bielefeld can be that much of a favorite since Dortmund IS the much better side.

Hertha +0.25 -119 at home vs Nurnberg. Same situation as above. Just because teams are in 12th place doesn't mean they suddenly stop playing. Hertha beat Leverkusen and Dortmund beat Stuttgart with nothing to play for just last week, so how on earth is the better team a dog at home ? These guys ARE professionals.

Duisburg vs Bayern, under 2.75 -108. Duisburg should actually believe they can get something out of this game, so I expect this to be a really tight match unless Bayern scores early. Besides that, Bayerns road games have generally been low scoring.

Schalke vs Frankfurt, under 3 +113. This is the bet I am least comfortable with, maybe I just got suckered by the price. 4 is a lot of goals, and Schalke aren't exactly Werder Bremen when it comes to free flowing attacking soccer. Of course, Frankfurt could somehow decide 'What the hell, we'll try to win' and play an end-to-end game which they will lose 4-2, but a defensive approach seems more likely.

[McFly]

Originally Posted by El_Tren

copy/pasted from my blog
Feel free to critique/criticize !

Bundesliga seemed really hard to find good spots in this weekend, and I can't say I'm actually in love with any of the picks, but since I've done pretty well in the league I settled on the following four :

Dortmund +0.5 +109 at Bielefeld. Bielefeld has put together a decent run lately, but so has Dortmund since the horrible week where they got destroyed by both Bayern and Hannover. Bielefeld needs to win, desperately, and Dortmund is in no mans land, but all that said I still don't think Bielefeld can be that much of a favorite since Dortmund IS the much better side.

Hertha +0.25 -119 at home vs Nurnberg. Same situation as above. Just because teams are in 12th place doesn't mean they suddenly stop playing. Hertha beat Leverkusen and Dortmund beat Stuttgart with nothing to play for just last week, so how on earth is the better team a dog at home ? These guys ARE professionals.

Duisburg vs Bayern, under 2.75 -108. Duisburg should actually believe they can get something out of this game, so I expect this to be a really tight match unless Bayern scores early. Besides that, Bayerns road games have generally been low scoring.

Schalke vs Frankfurt, under 3 +113. This is the bet I am least comfortable with, maybe I just got suckered by the price. 4 is a lot of goals, and Schalke aren't exactly Werder Bremen when it comes to free flowing attacking soccer. Of course, Frankfurt could somehow decide 'What the hell, we'll try to win' and play an end-to-end game which they will lose 4-2, but a defensive approach seems more likely.

to Punters Lounge, El_Tren.

Cheers four your contribution, always good to have different views.

Does your name refer to Adolfo Valencia by any chance, the old Bayern legend?

[SeanMac]

going for a schalke win the w/e won 3 of the last 4 , avoiding defeat in all 4 and are playing a frankfurt team who have failed to win in their last 6 league games Schalke win

[trahators]

i'am thinking to put 100 GBP to Bayer Munchen win. 2.10 is good to put money on it.

sorry for my bad english

[1907zico]

I think I will go on Draw for Hertha:Nurnberg, aswell as on Wolfsburg:Stuttgart

Hertha wants to finish the season on a place without 2 numbers (haha dunno how else to explain <10) and Nurnberg does want to stay in the Bundesliga I.

On the other side Wolfsburg, under Magath very good development and with a lot of players who can change the game with one long shot (schäfer,gentner,marcelinho and co.).
Stuttgart wants to get into the UefaCup but they have a real goalkepper Problem.. it might be that Stuttgart will start winning, but as I mentioned, I think Wolfsburg will shot as much as possible on the goal.. and at the end noone will be happy with the result.

To be on the sure side you could play Wolfsburg over too though.

Bayern also has a nice quote, but I am scared that they drunk a bit toooo much at their party. Also Duisburg was able to defeat the big teams..

Still seeking for the safe combo, but dunno how that should look like
Will for for that probably..

Duisburg:Bayern [1X2] Bayern @ 1.90
Cottbus:HSV [1X2] HSV @ 2.40

[El_Tren]

McFly : Yes it does

Stunning that someone else still remembers him

[danbrujto]

I have a question for McFly,i've read somewhere that there are kind of "friendly/good relationship" let's say between Bayern and Nurnberg and that considering so we can expect a strong Bayern (i don't mean as line-up but as will to play for real) against Duisburg (that has a bad home record anyway),so they can give an helping hand to Nurnberg.....?
I think Bayern have good chances to win there anyway....

[McFly]

Originally Posted by danbrujto

I have a question for McFly,i've read somewhere that there are kind of "friendly/good relationship" let's say between Bayern and Nurnberg and that considering so we can expect a strong Bayern (i don't mean as line-up but as will to play for real) against Duisburg (that has a bad home record anyway),so they can give an helping hand to Nurnberg.....?
I think Bayern have good chances to win there anyway....

Well, the Bayern manager has a history in Nürnberg but I wouldn't say there is a friendship between the FCN and Bayern, rather the opposite actually and the FCN supporters yet were angry due to lacking support from Bayern in the past. But like most teams, Bayern intend to be fair and give what they can in the game, we will seem if they really do so. Bayern were quite passive and not at full strength in Wolfsburg, Duisburg now are quite poor of course so that Bayern may well nick it.

[McFly]

Hertha BSC Berlin v 1.FC Nürnberg

Nürnberg standing one point below Bielefeld have this one and the Schalke game to pass them and to avoid the next disaster for the 'Club'. Well, their shape gives hope but it's not that the game in Berlin will get easy only because of the table situation. Nürnberg surely will be on fire and very engaged again and the gained confidence should help them to believe in the away win. Bielefeld host Dortmund and have been succesful at home lately, so if Nürnberg don't win this, it could get fatal for them yet. In last away game, Nürnberg were close to win at Dortmund so that we may see a similar performance of them against the Hertha. The host is unbeaten in five and won last two games over Karlsruhe and Leverkusen. The missings in offense returned and right away, Hertha found back to scoring more than once only. So the strengthened Hertha could make some problems (Pantelic,Raffael,Piszczek), still have Hertha been nothing special widely and they have to invest much into the game to beat Nürnberg, I reckon. Hopefully, Mintal, Misimovic and Vittek along Koller all will play for Nürnberg to profit from their offense power, three strikers are planned again however. I expect an open game and the quality of the host also might be seen even though you never know with the Hertha. I still like the Over which is no big odd but still better paid than most of today's games in the Bundesliga.

Nürnberg DNB @ 1.75 stan james 5/10
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.71 betfair 4/10


Arminia Bielefeld v Borussia Dortmund

Arminia won previous three home games by nil and are one point above the crucial bottom line. So the idea of revenge for the 1-6 in first game might play a minor role only. Bielefeld mostly performed well recently besides the Bayern game, the convincing home wins over Leverkusen and Karlsruhe where followed by some problems of the play in last home win over Bochum. There are surely better sides than Bielefeld but there a few good one in offense. Zuma has been in good shape and I hope also Kamper will play from the beginning on, defender Kucera will miss this game. Dortmund on the other side hae serious squad problems. After Degen, Petric, Klomowicz, Kehl and Kringe, now also Valdez is suspended. If doubtful Dede won't play too, Buckley has to defend and not to storm what would weaken offense further. In addition, Kuba is doubtful so in worst case I can only see Frei as threat for the Arminia actually. Dortmund are coming into this with the great victory over Stuttgart and along a few weak performances, Dortmund have played good football partly. Still, they might be too much weakened for this really difficult game facing an aggressive team.

Bielefeld @ 1.82 betdaq 6/10

[chiqo]

Duisburg - Bayern
odds too high to ignore it. bayern squad is full of national players. They aren´t holidays - they have to start at the EURO this summer and be motivated for a football summer. Duisburg miss Grlic and Niculescu two important players for Duisburg especially Grlic the captain. Bayern miss Toni,Klose,Ribery,Altintop and Lucio but I think that the starting eleven is a good one with Podolski who need practise for the EURO and Schlaudraff who will find a good end after a bad season (for him). Gross in midfield is not a bad solution.

Bayern to win
over 2.5 goals

[chiqo]

Bielefeld - Dortmund
another "Revier" - derby. Dortmund miss 8 players. Petric,Klimowicz,Kehl,Kringe,Weidenfeller,Ziegler and Degen with injuries. Valdez is suspended with the 5th yellow card and Dede and Kuba are questionable. Doll miss 11 players and has not the biggest squad. Höttecke the 3rd keeper is not stable. He played good versus Stuttgart but worst versus Hanover. Both teams have 56 goals against. Bielefeld looks like the winner here. Dortmund without personnel and a season they want forget as soon as possible.

Arminia to win
under 2.5 goals

[1907zico]

Would not go Bayern over.
They want to break the record with the lessest Goals in their own goal. (18 or so atm).
So they will play quite defensiv and will try to conterattack.
My tipp is something like 0:1 or 0:2 tho.. but away win seems "safest" bet

[cavelloman]

Originally Posted by 1907zico

Would not go Bayern over.
They want to break the record with the lessest Goals in their own goal. (18 or so atm).
So they will play quite defensiv and will try to conterattack.
My tipp is something like 0:1 or 0:2 tho.. but away win seems "safest" bet

I don't think they care about such thingsStill that score will do me

[dj purry]

mc fly any news on hamburg, is this game a must win 4 hamburg??

[McFly]

VfL Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart

A big game for both playing for the UEFA spot, the fifth place. Wolfsburg with a win would pass Stuttgart and would have good cards in the race. Wolfsburg are in the proper shape coming on the back of the 3-2 over Frankfurt. This was the first victory after four winless games but Wolfsburg showed good performances also against Bayern Leverrkusen lately and always try to dominate at home. They're alway good for scoring and conceding just like Stuttgart these days. The guests made a solid game at Dortmund after a few weak away performances but the close game went against them. Stuttgart sometimes rely too much on the ambitous play, in this maybe decisive game they should be awake also. I expect them to play well and thus give the edge to them. The game also looks like many goals might happen due to the team's attitudes and situation. Stuttgart with five Overs in a row and five goals in each of last three. Wolfsburg with three Overs in ten only but they've become more active towards season end.

Over 3 goals @ 1.91 betdaq 6/10
Stuttgart (0) AH @ 2.22 betdaq 4/10

Hansa Rostock v Bayer Leverkusen

Rostock have as good as no chances and that's also what they impressed after the Hannover game. Again, they totally broke in after goals agaist them and the discussion holds on around Hansa about the young team and banned, more experienced players. However, Rostock mostly simply have been too weak and they hardly made a good game over 90 minutes. Maybe they will put again into what they have but a lead of Leverkusen and the game would be over for them probably. Leverkusen have had problems as well but of course still better and more consistent despite hardly having any good results recently after two defeats recently and three of them in last four winless games. Leverkusen conceded unusually much, 8 in last three games. One problem has been scoring but generally, they showed slightly improved recently having been unlucky against Hertha and Duisburg where partly also quality was missed though. For Kießling, season is over, Bulykin is expected in the attack again. Barnetta is in good shape and overall, Leverkusen easily may get too strong for home weak Rostock.

Leverkusen @ 1.9 stan james 4/10

[1907zico]

Originally Posted by cavelloman

I don't think they care about such thingsStill that score will do me

On the official homepage you could read that they would love to break that record. That for sure doesnt mean that they wont get goals by oppenent team.

PS: Cavelloman do you have icq/msn. I saw you system up there working very nice, but I have problems to understand it (newcomer in this )

[McFly]

Originally Posted by dj purry

mc fly any news on hamburg, is this game a must win 4 hamburg??

A must win for both mate and I don't like the game too much tbh. Hamburg have improved a little but this one may become tougher than their last away win over Rostock. Cottbus on the road were alright at Karlsruhe given the usual performances on the road and I think they shouldn't be written off here. So I can see no value really. And for Overs it's hard to get acceptable odds in the final rounds. Angelov as missing for Cottbus is worth to mention.

[McFly]

Bayern (-0.25) AH @ 1.83 betdaq 3/10
Taking a small shoot on Bayern besides despite the more or less second team that will play. Could still be good enough for struggling Duisburg but therefor, Bayern need to be far more active than in Wolfsburg. Maybe the young blood is even good for that, still it's not easy to say how engaged the teams will be. What Duisburg played vs. Nürnberg in first half was terrible and just not good enough for such crucial games. Of course, there is a quality difference to Bayern in the line-up, especially as Duisburg are without the leaders Grlic, Willi and Bodzek what wekanes defese and creativity massively. Duisburg had a few good results against opening teams but I doubt Bayern will do them the favour. So passive Bayern would be bad or them in a way and Bayern might score more with less chances.

Hannover (+1.5) AH @ 1.94 betdaq 4/10
Quite silly odds for Hannover again. I underestimated them and overestimated Schalke in their last away game where Hannover could manage a draw with a good performance and a little luck. Recent home win over Rostock also showed that they keep up pace (slight chances for place 5 left) and they're definately in good shape. Of course, Werder under pressure always are good for a few goals, especially being quite complete. Werder became more stable again and won the brutal Nord derby over the HSV and place 2 is a big aim of course. Frings returns, Baumann and Vranjes are suspended but Werder are pretty much back at full strength. This bet surely has its risks but to break Hannover will get hard enough and a close defeat would be enough for me.

I'm not really happy with the Schalke odds and stay away. Form of the teams differ quite much and Schalke are capable of hammering the Eintracht but I also can imagine the game to be a little closer. Therefore, Frankfurt need to improve much and for sure it will be very hard to avoid a defeat. Besides, I fancy Karlsruhe a little but they keep struggling with converting and sometimes are leaky, so value may be to lay them possibly and trust Bochum rather. Good luck.