Germany - Bundesliga (17 May 08)

[meatman]

Oliver Kahn

What a legend he is

It'll be sad to see him retire, what a great servent to the game he has been.

I hope he can finish with a clean sheet which includes one or 2 top quality saves

[McFly]

Bochum (-0.75) AH @ 1.92 betdaq 4/10

Bochum host Rostock what should become another home win. Bochum have been okay lately and won in Karlsruhe, also the home performance to Schalke was alright at first until Schalke took control of the game. Bochum are winless in five home games though, on the other side should current shape be enough to beat Rostock who will do hard to be really motivated after weeks of high tension what didn't bring them too much though. Rostock lost five games in a row and were behind at HT yet in the last three. Hansa made a slight improvement against Leverkusen and at Rostock before but overall, they deserve to go down as too many performances have been mediocre ones, especially in 2008. Coach Pagelsdorf already is thinking of the new season so that some "risk" may be taken and the anyway young team may get changed under consideration of the next year's team for second league. All that favours Bochum here and Rostock to avoid a defeat would surprise me even though the reduced pressure may also have a positive effect on the guests.

About the remaining games - Stuttgart should beat Bielefeld but I do not fancy a bet really. Stuttgart with a rather disappointing performance at Wolfsburg (where they got weakened though) and generally poor on the road, but quite strong at home. Nevertheless, Bielefeld will fight like hell so that the VfB will need some creativity to break them.

No value given in Dortmund-Wolfsburg or let's say only Dortmund would be some value. Wolfsburg have been in good shape but normally, this one will get harder than odds are saying. The same for Hamburg who should be strong enough to beat the KSC despite the poor form, yet are odds too short to call it a reasonable bet.

GL

So the season is over soon and I wanna thank all contributors to the threads.

As usual, the first few rounds after the breaks were tough ones but overall this season has been okay in terms of betting.

[McFly]

Originally Posted by Honest Al the punters pal

This match is looking too close to call and so I have decided just to go on the over 2.5 goals. I hope this is right? I saw some statistics recently showing the last day Bundesliga 1 scores for the previous two seasons. It seems that most of your games (on the last day) finish over 2.5 goals. It was a very interesting and informative statistic...
Thank you for your comments McFly...

The Over should be more reliable but I can't see any value in those odds. These late games tend to Overs but I think bookies considered this too much. In terms of probability, a few goals seem makable even though Werder might be not that eager.

[hobbies.hubber]

My other soccer picks for today would include Shalke on level ball as well as Stuttgart -0.75 as they strive to consolidate their European position in the final round of the Bundesliga. The handicaps being offered in relation to the importance and the quality differential makes it worthwhile to back these teams.

Shalke 0
Stuttgart -0.75


http://hobbieshub.blogspot.com/

[El_Tren]

McFly how have you done this season ? I've only read your picks for the last two weeks, but it seems like we pick opposite sides often yet we both seem to be winning money

[dj purry]

mcfly. with so many players r missing (dortmond)don't u think that wolfsb will want a spot in the eufa.also like stuttgart. mcfly i'll like 2 tank u 4 all the good writting and keep up the good work. is been a good year on the german l1. so if u having a party...........100% discount. thnx mate

[1907zico]

Dortmund did well with a lots of misses against Stuttgart as well.. but you have not to forget that it was 99% because of Stuttgarts keeper.
Wolfsburg isnt that bad at away games, and also with Magath they got a very smartass coach. For me this one must be an away win.. be you can never know

[[Loki]]

McFly,

Do you think the over in the Leverkusen v Werder would be a good bet in tonights match. Both offensive side.

[McFly]

Originally Posted by dj purry

mcfly. with so many players r missing (dortmond)don't u think that wolfsb will want a spot in the eufa.also like stuttgart. mcfly i'll like 2 tank u 4 all the good writting and keep up the good work. is been a good year on the german l1. so if u having a party...........100% discount. thnx mate

Thanks for your nice words. I agree that Wolfsburg rather should nick this game but I don't touch them on the normal odds and have a small piece of Wolfsburg to win by 1. Dortmund don't have a much different face compared to last few weeks, even Petric is quite fit. But of course have Wofsburg impressed and to miss this big chance for them would be stupid.

[McFly]

Originally Posted by [Loki]

McFly,

Do you think the over in the Leverkusen v Werder would be a good bet in tonights match. Both offensive side.

Surely the Over is more likely but as said are odds not worth it IMO.

You never know with Leverkusen and Werder may not dominate the game.

[El_Tren]

For what it's worth, copy pasting blog entry. Some of these prices no longer available obviously, since 3 days old..


Last week went pretty well for me, Schalke/Frankfurt went under and won both Dortmund +0.5 and Hertha +0.25, lost Duisburg/Bayern under 3. Who would expect a Bayern team missing Toni, Klose and Ribery to score 3 in 20 minutes !

Anyway, many picks for next weekend :

Leverkusen v Bremen under 3.5 +104. Two of the highest scoring teams in the league against each other, but I still like the under - 3.5 is one hell of a high total, and both teams are playing for pretty high stakes so neither will be careless - also, all of Bremens away games against the strong teams (Bayern, HSV, Schalke) have gone under. Additionally, Bremen has looked solid defensively when Frings played, and he will be back from suspension.

Bremen pk+100 for half a bet. This probably could have been a full bet, i now don't know what I was worried about. Leverkusen is in terrible form, and Bremen is playing great recently.

Stuttgart -0.75-127 vs Bielefeld. Both teams have to win, one is at home and actually good (minus the goalkeeper), and the other one is Bielefeld. Also, Bielefeld could have even less to play for than Stuttgart if Schalke takes the lead in Nurnberg.

Hannover 96 -0.5-139 vs Energie Cottbus. Tricky, since Energie has become a decent team, but I figure now that they have secured another year in the league they will have spent a week partying, and Hannover will want to redeem themselves for the spanking they got both last week from Bremen and in the winter in Cottbus.

Schalke pk-101. All the same reasons as last week. Perhaps i will be proven wrong, but Schalke is just a MUCH better team than Nurnberg, and they do have automatic CL qualification to play for.

Bayern -1.25+105 for half a bet. Another tricky one, especially since Hertha has been playing well since they got their attacking options back, but Bayern surely must want to end their season in style.

HSV/Karlsruhe under3+107 for half a bet. Karlsruhe plays tight away from home, and Hamburg has had trouble scoring lately. Miller can't have as bad a day as he had last weekend either.

[chiqo]

What a final. 7 goals in the first 20 minutes. Hope it continue in this way.

[chiqo]

18 goals in the first 45 minutes. It couldn´t be a better final in my eyes.
Nurnberg relegated - Hamburg and Wolfsburg are in the UEFA Cup.

But 45 Minutes to play.

[pavlosli]

Come on Stuttgart!!!!!!!!!!!
do it!!!!!!

[chiqo]

Originally Posted by pavlosli

Come on Stuttgart!!!!!!!!!!!
do it!!!!!!

penalty kick by Mario Gomez .... 1:1 !

[pavlosli]

they're torturing me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2-2??? Come on!! why????????

[chiqo]

Ladies and Gentlemen the probably best german goalkeeper has left the court. Thanks to Oliver Kahn!!!



I take a bow

[McFly]

Bundesliga at its best in terms of goals, 38 goals are hard to top.

Nürnberg go down what is bitter but at the end they deserved it.

Very emotional goodbye from Hitzfeld and Kahn in Munich today, I'm off to the Marienplatz!

[McFly]

Originally Posted by El_Tren

For what it's worth, copy pasting blog entry. Some of these prices no longer available obviously, since 3 days old..


Last week went pretty well for me, Schalke/Frankfurt went under and won both Dortmund +0.5 and Hertha +0.25, lost Duisburg/Bayern under 3. Who would expect a Bayern team missing Toni, Klose and Ribery to score 3 in 20 minutes !

Anyway, many picks for next weekend :

Leverkusen v Bremen under 3.5 +104. Two of the highest scoring teams in the league against each other, but I still like the under - 3.5 is one hell of a high total, and both teams are playing for pretty high stakes so neither will be careless - also, all of Bremens away games against the strong teams (Bayern, HSV, Schalke) have gone under. Additionally, Bremen has looked solid defensively when Frings played, and he will be back from suspension.

Bremen pk+100 for half a bet. This probably could have been a full bet, i now don't know what I was worried about. Leverkusen is in terrible form, and Bremen is playing great recently.

Stuttgart -0.75-127 vs Bielefeld. Both teams have to win, one is at home and actually good (minus the goalkeeper), and the other one is Bielefeld. Also, Bielefeld could have even less to play for than Stuttgart if Schalke takes the lead in Nurnberg.

Hannover 96 -0.5-139 vs Energie Cottbus. Tricky, since Energie has become a decent team, but I figure now that they have secured another year in the league they will have spent a week partying, and Hannover will want to redeem themselves for the spanking they got both last week from Bremen and in the winter in Cottbus.

Schalke pk-101. All the same reasons as last week. Perhaps i will be proven wrong, but Schalke is just a MUCH better team than Nurnberg, and they do have automatic CL qualification to play for.

Bayern -1.25+105 for half a bet. Another tricky one, especially since Hertha has been playing well since they got their attacking options back, but Bayern surely must want to end their season in style.

HSV/Karlsruhe under3+107 for half a bet. Karlsruhe plays tight away from home, and Hamburg has had trouble scoring lately. Miller can't have as bad a day as he had last weekend either.

Some nice bets there El_Tren, well done on them.

[El_Tren]

thanks - and I actually played Wolfsburg late, too.
I dont usually bet on game days, but I had considered them earlier this week at -0.25-124, and they moved all the way to -0.25+102 today.
Nice way to end the season