France - Ligue 2 (5-8 February)

[Atko]

We're back for another dose of Ligue 2 this week. Quite an intriguing card which has led me to go for four selections...

Le Havre vs Vannes: Le Havre -0.75 AH at 2.04
Le Havre have slid out of the top three recently and find themselves in a battle with a few teams to reclaim the podium. In fact, Cedric Daury's men have not won since the turn of the year, but there are reasons: Mamadou Diallo, their top scorer, was at the CAN, and they've played some tough teams (home to Tours, away at Angers and Brest). In their last game against Angers, there were signs of recovery. I thought they were the better side and would've won the game if the linesman had spotted the ball crossing the Angers goalline late on. They are still without two of their better players in Stephane Noro (MF) and Hassan Alla (FW), but the arrivals of Walid Mesloub (MF) and Brice Jovial (FW) have made those losses easier to swallow. Jamel Ait Ben Adir (MF) is still suspended. Even with those losses, I think they'll be too strong for Vannes. Le Havre have a good home record (W6 D2 L2), while Vannes are fairly poor on the road (W2 D5 L4). Stephane Le Mignan's men tend to sit back away from home and that's worked against weaker sides, such as Nantes. I'm not sure that'll be successful here, the main reason being injuries to two defenders, influential captain Patrick Leugeuen and Stephane Drouin. They also miss Frederic Sammaritano (MF) and striker Christophe Avezac. There is also the impact of their last match in the Breton derby against Guingamp at home. Vannes led 2-0 at half time and despite Guingamp playing with ten men for the last 20 minutes, they scored a last-minute equaliser for a 2-2 draw. I think this will have to have an impact on Vannes' morale. Losing a last minute goal, against your rivals, is a sore one. Both teams need the points but I reckon Le Havre will see this as a good chance to get back to winning ways in the promotion chase. I've taken the -0.75 AH market at 2.05 as I think it holds more value than the outright at 1.79. I can see them scoring more than one here so covering the handicap is entirely feasible.
Bet strength: 5pts

Chateauroux vs Clermont: Chateauroux -0.25 AH at 1.82
Ever since Jean-Pierre Papin arrived as manager of Chateauroux during the treve, La Berri have picked up, drawing their two away games (one being at Caen) and winning their only home match. Papin seems to have instilled some organisation and discipline into the team and they look a much solider outfit. Their home record isn't impressive (W3 D2 L5) but that was pre-Papin. Chateauroux have some exciting players in striker Titi Buengo, midfielder Romain Grange and loan-signing from Lens, forward Joseph-Steven Monrose. The squad is in decent condition - only midfielder Amara Baby is missing from the side that drew 1-1 with Caen - and I expect that they'll take confidence from a very fine display in Normandy. Clermont are a very unpredictable side at present. They lost 3-0 at home to Sedan last week, a shocking result if truth be told. They have doubts over forward Loris Arnaud and defenders Ahmed-Reda Madouni and Cedric Bockhorni, while Yacine Brahimi (MF), Jacques Salze (DF) and Sebastian Mazeyrat (DM) are definitely out. Defender Jerome Cellier does return, however. I feel they are going to struggle for goals since losing striker Mustapha Yatabare in the transfer window and their away record is fairly poor (W2 D4 L4). They are coming up against a team high on confidence. I do feel Chateauroux have enough to win this but I like the partial draw over offered with -0.25 AH market. 1.82 is still a decent enough price for me and with both teams so close to each other in the league, it's worth having a bit of insurance.
Bet strength: 5pts

Ajaccio vs Angers: Ajaccio -0.25 AH at 1.79
Ajaccio are one of the league's strongest home sides in terms of not losing (W4 D6 L1). They keep it very tight and try to pick off teams. They've lost heavily in their last two trips away from home (5-1 Bordeaux, CdF; 2-0 Strasbourg, L2), but back at the Francois Coty, they are much more reliable. They've won their last four home matches and welcome back three key players, defender Wilfried Moimbe, midfielder Benjamin Andre and striker Jean-Francois Riviere. Full-back Jean-Philippe Sabo is their only regular player missing. Angers welcome back key defender Martin Fall from suspension and influential midfielder Michael Stephan, but they still have issues. Kevin Olimpa, their goalkeeper, is far from solid, and they lack a creative spark in midfield. They've signed striker Claudio Keseru on loan from Nantes but he'll probably start from the bench. They are a dangerous side at home but against such a strong side in Ajaccio, I think they'll struggle to break them down. The partial draw cover, I feel, is essential, due to Ajaccio's propensity for home draws. Even still, the hosts are worth plumping for with such a good recent run in Corsica.
Bet strength: 4pts

Dijon vs Istres: Dijon at 2.06
Dijon haven't actually won a home game since the 30th October - when they beat Chateauroux 5-4 - but they've only lost one of those since too, 3-1 to Brest. Patrice Carteron's side are only three points clear of their visitors in 19th, so this game takes a fair amount of importance in the relegation battle. Dijon lost their last away game 2-1 to Nimes but their squad was decimated. For this match they have defenders Samuel Souprayen and Arnaud Lebrun back, as well as main striker Sebastian Ribas. He is Dijon's main man and his return offsets the loss of Kevin Bru (MF), scorer of a quite fabulous goal against Nimes. Istres are without suspended goalkeeper Kossi Agassa. Apart from that though, they have a strong squad to choose from and will be buoyed by the 1-0 win over Nantes. Saying that, they are dreadful travellers (W1 D2 L7), their only point recently coming against shot-shy Guingamp. Dijon will know the importance of pulling clear of the relegation zone and while this will be no classic, historically they are strong at the Gaston Gerard and I expect them, with their players back, to be a stronger outfit than Istres. I did consider -0.25 AH at 1.77, but I feel Dijon have a real chance here and I'm willing to lower my stake on bigger odds.
Bet strength: 3pts

The other games are all fairly tough ones to call. I'd stay well clear of Guingamp vs Tours, which pitches one side struggling for goals (Guingamp) and one that is giving strange results (Tours). Nantes vs Brest is a huge match for both sides, if I had a bit more courage I'd maybe take Brest (0) at 2.39, but for now I'll leave it. Metz hand a debut to Sylvain Wiltord when they entertain Nimes. Metz are solid at home but I want to see how they react to defeats at home to Caen and at Bastia before I get involved with them again. Besides, Nimes are a handy away side. Sedan have defensive worries (no Rozic, Baysse), which is why I'm put off them against Strasbourg. This is also their fifth game in two weeks. Laval, stats-wise, should destroy Bastia, who have one point on their travels all year, but the Corsicans are improving and I wouldn't want to go against them at this stage.

Bonne chance,
Atko

[meatman]

Brest + 0.25 AH @ 1.99 (4/10)

Well I think bookies are too generous with Brest here. They have lost 1 of their last 17 games and certainly become one of the most impressive units in the division, they are also a side who actually play as a team rather than individually. I think thats a problem which Nantes sometimes have and there us a lot of pressure upon Les Canaries at the moment following a bad spell of results. Injuries have perhaps been to blame, but it also doesn't help that they have a clown of a manager in Jean Marc Furlan, who I have a very poor opinion of. The Nantes squad is in better condition tonight and they desperately need a result, but I cant be having Brest so generous on this +0.25 AH line. I'll back them to get at least a draw here.

I've not had too much time to look at all the games in detail but I agree with Atko's picks on Ajaccio and Chatearoux, I think they have a strong chance of winning.

GL all tonight!

[Spooner]

	Friday 5 February 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	AC Ajaccio v Angers SCO (19:00 GMT)	2.1	3.25	4.3	101.64 %
	CS Sedan Ardennes v RC Strasbourg (19:00 GMT)	2.21	3.15	3.9	102.64 %
	Dijon FCO v Istres (19:00 GMT)	2.08	3.15	4.3	103.08 %
	En Avant Guingamp v Tours (19:00 GMT)	2.25	3.25	3.95	100.53 %
	Laval v SC Bastia (19:00 GMT)	2.01	3.35	4.5	101.82 %
	LB Châteauroux v Clermont Foot (19:00 GMT)	2.21	3.15	3.9	102.64 %
	FC Metz v Nîmes Olympique (19:30 GMT)	2	3.4	4.5	101.63 %
	Le Havre AC v Vannes (19:30 GMT)	1.81	3.55	5.4	101.94 %
	Nantes Atlantique v Stade Brestois 29 (19:30 GMT)	2.37	3.2	3.75	100.02 %
	Monday 8 February 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Arles v SM Caen (19:45 GMT)	3	3	2.74	103.16 %

[Spooner]

Chateauroux v Clermont - Chateauroux @ 2.20 365

I was quite impressed with Chateauroux at Caen last week as they seemed to match them and in the end were probably unlucky not to come away with all three points although they won't of been too disappointed with the draw, it was still a good point. Home form is patchy having only had three home wins all season but recent form home and away is DWD which looks more positive, Clermont come here with a poor away record with just a win at lowly Bastia and 16th placed Vannes, they were soundly beaten 3-0 by Sedan last time out which was a bit of a shock and they could struggle to pick themselves up, home win for me.

Laval v Bastia - Laval @ 2.00 SJ

Laval are still in with a shout of promotion if they can keep this high level of form at home, they've only been beaten here once this season, the worrying thing is and always is with this league is they've had a fair number of draws. Bastia have been miserable on the road though losing ten out of a eleven with just one draw to their name, they've only got three away goals all season and look easy to take on, at even money I'm happy to do so.

[Alessan]

Originally Posted by Spooner

Mhm, funny, the odds in Croatia for this match stand at:

2.35 2.85 3.00

What's the deal with this? I would understand that they're cutting all three prices, as they usually do, shortening prices all the time, but there's only a change in draw and away win column...

I like Brest's chances here, but 3 might be a bit too short for a straight away win?

Are there any recent news that are taking the price on Brest down?

[Atko]

Originally Posted by Spooner

Laval v Bastia - Laval @ 2.00 SJ

Laval are still in with a shout of promotion if they can keep this high level of form at home, they've only been beaten here once this season, the worrying thing is and always is with this league is they've had a fair number of draws. Bastia have been miserable on the road though losing ten out of a eleven with just one draw to their name, they've only got three away goals all season and look easy to take on, at even money I'm happy to do so.

I'd be a bit wary of this match. Laval are justifiably favourites due to their home record, but Bastia are coming on to a game. That away record is horrendous but the two games after the treve have shown an improvement in performances. New manager Faruk Hadzigbegic has got new players in and the team is playing with a bit more fluency. The played very well in defeating Metz 1-0 last week and their last two away games were narrow defeats at Caen and Nimes, who are in the top three. I wouldn't be taking either side with confidence but I certainly wouldn't want to be against Bastia at present. They are a wounded animal and they'll fight tooth and nail for survival. Laval have the players to win it but apart from their 3-0 at Tours last week, their recent form has been iffy. I hope Laval win for you - I have nothing to gain or lose from this match - but thought I'd play Devil's Advocate on this one. Good luck

[Spooner]

Thanks for info Atko.

I guessed there would be a couple of reasons as to why the price is at even money (given the form), I'll stick with it though as although teams improve, results are still hard to come by ie Portsmouth.

[Atko]

Originally Posted by Spooner

Thanks for info Atko.

I guessed there would be a couple of reasons as to why the price is at even money (given the form), I'll stick with it though as although teams improve, results are still hard to come by ie Portsmouth.

Gut instinct is always the best. I had Laval on my early shortlist but there's just too many perils for me (I am a cautious punter though). And what you say is true, losing becomes a habit. Fingers crossed for you.

[Atko]

Originally Posted by meatman

Brest + 0.25 AH @ 1.99 (4/10)

Well I think bookies are too generous with Brest here. They have lost 1 of their last 17 games and certainly become one of the most impressive units in the division, they are also a side who actually play as a team rather than individually. I think thats a problem which Nantes sometimes have and there us a lot of pressure upon Les Canaries at the moment following a bad spell of results. Injuries have perhaps been to blame, but it also doesn't help that they have a clown of a manager in Jean Marc Furlan, who I have a very poor opinion of. The Nantes squad is in better condition tonight and they desperately need a result, but I cant be having Brest so generous on this +0.25 AH line. I'll back them to get at least a draw here.

I've not had too much time to look at all the games in detail but I agree with Atko's picks on Ajaccio and Chatearoux, I think they have a strong chance of winning.

GL all tonight!

Right Steve, I'm going to get onboard, but I'll be greedy and put 2pts on Brest (0) AH at 2.39 - really quite ridiculous odds. Nantes' president Waldemir Kita came out today and said he's not running the club anymore, there are splits throughout the club and he even admitted it wasn't his choice to hire Furlan. A club employee said morale is at an all-time low and that there is no strategy. What worse a time to meet Brest, who are flying and have Bruno Grougi (MF) back. Amazing price that I expect to drop. With you confident enough, I'll join in.

[ViddyWellBrother]

Thanks for the tips guys, any advice on my thoughts for tonight would be appreciated

Currently I am thinking of:

1. Nantes LAY @ 2.36 Betfair - Agree completely with what has been mentioned above
2. Ajaccio WIN @ 2 or possibly Angers LAY @ 5

Lastly, based on recent form I'm considering laying Strasbourg but would like further info on these games, team news etc - I feel they will not win tonight unless someone has a reason otherwise!

Sedan haven't lost at home in the past 5 games, Strasbourg have lost 3 and drawn 2 in the past 5 games

Strasbourg LAY @ 4


Thanks

[Atko]

Originally Posted by ViddyWellBrother

Thanks for the tips guys, any advice on my thoughts for tonight would be appreciated

Currently I am thinking of:

1. Nantes LAY @ 2.36 Betfair - Agree completely with what has been mentioned above
2. Ajaccio WIN @ 2 or possibly Angers LAY @ 5

Lastly, based on recent form I'm considering laying Strasbourg but would like further info on these games, team news etc - I feel they will not win tonight unless someone has a reason otherwise!

Sedan haven't lost at home in the past 5 games, Strasbourg have lost 3 and drawn 2 in the past 5 games

Strasbourg LAY @ 4


Thanks

Agree with an Ajaccio win (see my tips at beginning of thread). As for Sedan-Strasbourg, I'd be a little cautious. Sedan are playing well but they can be quite an unpredictable side and this will be their fifth game in two weeks. They are also missing Rozic and Baysse (two normal central defenders). Strasbourg have been poor on the road but get a lot of draws and are improving - I wouldn't put it past them taking something here. I'd avoid the match personally - no result would surprise me - and overs would be an extremely tentative play if I had to.

Good luck with what you decide to go for

[ViddyWellBrother]

Cheers Akto

I think I will go for ajaccio and will wait on team news for the nantes V brest game

Ive heard rumours that Brest could rest players due to a cup game? Is this true?

[Rob the I ty]

Saw Nantes against Istres last week and they were dreadful. Had about 80 mins with a man advantage and they couldn't even sniff the Istres goal and eventually conceding late. They have the look of a team in crisis tbh.

Agree with the above picks, Le Havre, Chateauroux, Dijon, and Brest.

I'll throw in Guingamp as they are desperate to get out of the relegation zone.

[luckotheoirish]

Originally Posted by ViddyWellBrother

Cheers Akto

I think I will go for ajaccio and will wait on team news for the nantes V brest game

Ive heard rumours that Brest could rest players due to a cup game? Is this true?

Those rumours are causing a difference of opinion in the market.Paddy power pushed Brest's price out to 9/4 from 2/1 but it's gone from 3.6 to 3.4 on betfair.I don't know what the story is but if I was manager and I was second in the league 4 points behind with a cup match in 5 days,I'd be putting out my best team in the league....

[Atko]

Originally Posted by luckotheoirish

Those rumours are causing a difference of opinion in the market.Paddy power pushed Brest's price out to 9/4 from 2/1 but it's gone from 3.6 to 3.4 on betfair.I don't know what the story is but if I was manager and I was second in the league 4 points behind with a cup match in 5 days,I'd be putting out my best team in the league....

Probable Brest team is: Elana; Laurenti, Fabien, Brou Apanga, Kantari; Daf, Owolo; Lesoimier, Grougi, Autret; Roux. That's a full-strength as it gets chaps.

[kevpar]

Originally Posted by kaligula

0-2 perfect pick guys .... thank you pro tipsters

The french leagues are fecking nightmare for shock results, so please lay of the tipsters backs!. They get it right more often than not.

[playa-game]

Football is played 90 mins so there's still time for them to atleast draw.. Have faith!

[luckotheoirish]

Originally Posted by kaligula

0-2 perfect pick guys .... thank you pro tipsters

Brest and Dijon are winning...why didn't you pick them..??The dedicated punters in here take time and trouble to post tips and at the end of the day you're the one who puts on the bet,don't blame them.They give their opinions based on stats/team news.If you follow them blindly without doing your own research then you only have yourself to blame.I read the posts in these forums and then put it together with my own info.If it loses then I don't blame anybody else.I'm looking forward to seeing some of your posts to see how your tips get on.....

[kulikTS]

Originally Posted by Atko

We're back for another dose of Ligue 2 this week. Quite an intriguing card which has led me to go for four selections...

Le Havre vs Vannes: Le Havre -0.75 AH at 2.04
Le Havre have slid out of the top three recently and find themselves in a battle with a few teams to reclaim the podium. In fact, Cedric Daury's men have not won since the turn of the year, but there are reasons: Mamadou Diallo, their top scorer, was at the CAN, and they've played some tough teams (home to Tours, away at Angers and Brest). In their last game against Angers, there were signs of recovery. I thought they were the better side and would've won the game if the linesman had spotted the ball crossing the Angers goalline late on. They are still without two of their better players in Stephane Noro (MF) and Hassan Alla (FW), but the arrivals of Walid Mesloub (MF) and Brice Jovial (FW) have made those losses easier to swallow. Jamel Ait Ben Adir (MF) is still suspended. Even with those losses, I think they'll be too strong for Vannes. Le Havre have a good home record (W6 D2 L2), while Vannes are fairly poor on the road (W2 D5 L4). Stephane Le Mignan's men tend to sit back away from home and that's worked against weaker sides, such as Nantes. I'm not sure that'll be successful here, the main reason being injuries to two defenders, influential captain Patrick Leugeuen and Stephane Drouin. They also miss Frederic Sammaritano (MF) and striker Christophe Avezac. There is also the impact of their last match in the Breton derby against Guingamp at home. Vannes led 2-0 at half time and despite Guingamp playing with ten men for the last 20 minutes, they scored a last-minute equaliser for a 2-2 draw. I think this will have to have an impact on Vannes' morale. Losing a last minute goal, against your rivals, is a sore one. Both teams need the points but I reckon Le Havre will see this as a good chance to get back to winning ways in the promotion chase. I've taken the -0.75 AH market at 2.05 as I think it holds more value than the outright at 1.79. I can see them scoring more than one here so covering the handicap is entirely feasible.
Bet strength: 5pts


Atko

Nice 0-1

[Silence208]

What's with the getting on the backs of the people who are giving free advice out of their own time? There are some tips in here from people with great records, anybody who wants to complain should maybe put their own tips up first.