France - Ligue 2 (28-31 March 08)

[meatman]

Friday 28 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Ajaccio v Stade Brestois 29 (19:00GMT)	2.41	3.00	3.85	101%	Details »
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Angers SCO v Clermont Foot (19:00GMT)	2.82	2.96	3.15	101%	Details »
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Boulogne v Bastia (19:00GMT)	3.40	3.00	2.62	101%	Details »
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Chamois Niortais v Libourne (19:00GMT)	2.36	3.05	3.95	100%	Details »
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Dijon v Gueugnon (19:00GMT)	1.76	3.40	7.20	100%	Details »
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Guingamp v Grenoble (19:00GMT)	2.26	3.00	4.20	101%	Details »
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Montpellier v Stade Reims (19:00GMT)	1.92	3.20	5.70	101%	Details »
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Amiens SC v Le Havre (19:30GMT)	3.60	3.05	2.44	102%	Details »
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Sunday 30 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Sedan Ardennes v Châteauroux (14:15BST)	1.90	3.10	5.00	105%	Details »
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Monday 31 March 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Troyes v Nantes (19:30BST)	2.50	2.90	3.10	107%	Details »
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Tuesday 1 April 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Stade Reims v Bastia (17:00BST)	2.28	1.82	2.28	143%	Details »

[allthethings]

Can't help this one:

France Ligue 2
Soccer - Niort/Libourne - total Over 2 (-133)
for the regulation time held on Mar 28 at 2:00pm [pending]

18th place plays 19th place, the teams tied with 27 points, just three behind Dijon. Add to the fact that both are desperate for a win, Niort have gone over 2 in five of their last six (2 goals in the other), while Libourne has done a lot better on the defensive end of late (just two overs in their last six). However, Libourne's last clean sheet on the road was March 2, 2007. Meanwhile, Niort's last clean sheet at home was August 28, 2007 (Cup) and August 24 (Ligue play). Under the circumstances, -133 is not a bad line for O 2.

[meatman]

Ajaccio -0.25 AH @ 2.01 Canbet 4/10

Ajaccio have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, whilst Brest have won 4 of their last 5. However, I’m not going to side with the formbook here and I think Ajaccio will be the team that gets the 3 points. Normally they can be relied upon at home, and the reverse against Chateauroux a couple of weeks ago was their first for quite some while at Le Stade Francois Coty. Ajaccio still need to get some points to ensure survival and this looks to be an ideal chance to get victory. Brest have been one of the biggest surprises in recent weeks going on an excellent unbeaten run which includes quite a lot of wins. But this is Brest, I really cannot see them keeping up this form especially as they are now pretty much safe from relegation. That was the main priority and I don’t feel that this is the sort of game that the visitors will enjoy. Ajaccio are good enough to end their bad run tonight so I’m willing to stake 4/10 on the -0.25 AH.


Angers (0) AH @ 1.87 Pinnacle 5/10

This is an absurd price on Angers who are well capable of beating Clermont here. The hosts have been very reliable on home turf all season and I see no reason why they wont produce another good display here tonight. The team hit back well last weekend following their cup exit and deserved victory in Reims. If they can play like that again then Clermont will certainly have some problems. The visitors are currently in4th place but id be surprised if they managed to maintain that position. The team is punching above its weight and doesn’t really have any promotion aspirations. A nervous away win in Boulogne last time out ended a run of 7 road games without victory, but prior to that they had performed pretty poorly on their travels, not really threatening wins very often. Angers appear to be really underestimated by bookies in this match and are only given slight favouritism. Definitely I have no hesitation in snapping up the western club on a 0AH @ 1.87.



Bastia -0.25 AH @ 2.14 Canbet 3/10
Over 2.25 goals @ 2.03 Pinnacle 3/10

This is a match between two teams in poor form who need points for different reasons. I’ll start with Bastia who have been rather disappointing in recent weeks, almost extinguishing themselves in a bid to be promoted. However due to Troyes suffering 2 consecutive losses they aren’t completely out of it yet. The team is 11 points back, but with a game in hand which is played in Reims on Tuesday. If they could get 6 points out of these 2 games in combination with Troyes slipping up at home to Nantes, then suddenly Bastia would be right back in the promotion chase. They really have a fine chance of victory tonight facing a Boulogne outfit that I’m pretty sure is heading down to the national division. They’ve lost a massive 8 of their last 9 games, and the only relief was a fortunate success facing Amiens a few weeks ago. Both teams have their problems in defence, Bastia have to use their 3rd choice keeper tonight which could be a problem, but I’ve known in the past for these guys to be really motivated and perform well. There will be goals in this game and I feel that it should be an exciting affair. I’ll nab some of the over 2.25 goals bet @ reasonable odds as well. Bastia should be able to outscore their opponents and get the 3 points, but its probably a game that shouldn’t be staked too highly on.

[meatman]

Libourne +0.25 AH @ 1.97 Pinnacle 4/10

Over 2.25 goals @ 2.09 Pinnacle 3/10

Well I’m going to put my money here my mouth is in this key relegation fight. For many weeks I have always said that I believe the 3 teams that will go down this season are Gueugnon, Niort and Boulogne (the actual same 3 that I predicted at the start of the campaign) now with not long to go until the end of the year it looks as though this could happen. Libourne are a decent side and have been much improved in 2008, especially in a defensive way. The team has a fight and determination about it and also a continuity. Whilst Dijon, Niort and Gueugnon all sacked their managers again Libourne remained loyal to coach Didier Tholot and I believe that this is a decision that will pay off. Libourne have worked hard to get within 3 points of safety but all that hard work could be undone tonight if they slump to defeat. Niort have won just 1 of their last 11 though, so it looks as if Libourne should be able to obtain at least a point. The visitors are the better team and travelling to this stadium is no longer to worry that it was last season. Niort have already lost a massive 9 times in front of their own fans and this is far from a fortress anymore. I’ll willingly stake 4/10 on this +0.25 AH, I feel there is a good chance of an away win. I've also taken some of the over 2.25 @ 2.09. As I've said before, when 2 teams in relegation places play each other in ligue 2, there are often goals scored.


Guingamp -0.25 AH @ 1.90 188bet 5/10

In the last 10 weeks these two sides have lost just 3 games between them so have been very difficult to beat recently. Of course a draw in these sort of clashes is always a possibility but I feel as though this could be a more open game with a few chances in it. Grenoble have to win the match to keep up their chances of promotion and cant afford to just come and sit back to obtain a draw. So I don’t think we shall see the usual boring Grenoble, they will have to take some chances and risks at some stage. Guingamp have no pressure on them but are in the middle of a great run of results, especially at home. They are one of the form teams in ligue 2, and as usual have been very strong in the 2nd half of the season. They’ve only lost 2 home games all year and the last of these was a long time ago. Both sides have squads in good condition and there have been few injuries to worry about. Home advantage should be crucial and Guingamp are capable of playing some good stuff here. I’m pretty sure the least they can obtain is a draw so I like betting them on a -0.25 AH with relatively high stakes.


Montpellier -0.5 AH @ 1.91 188bet 4/10

Its now over 800 minutes since Montpellier last conceded a goal at Le Stade Mosson and this stadium continues to be a fortress. Reims will come here determined, but I cant see them going away with anything at this tough venue. Last weekend the visitors just didn’t play well facing Angers at home and it was a very disappointing performance. It spread new fears that the team could be sucked into the relegation battle and the pressure is on. Montpellier probably cant be promoted now but they will want to please their own fans and this is a game they should really win. When you have such strong foundations its such a massive bonus and you’re always confident that 1 goal is all they need to get 3 points. A price of 1.91 isn’t especially exciting’ but I’m pretty sure we shall see Rolland Courbis’ men take victory.



Le Havre -0.25 AH @ 2.08 Pinnacle 3/10

God I really hate betting the visitors here because I respect Amiens as a home team so much. But Le Havre are simply irresistible at the moment and play with some much confidence week in week out. They are just winning matches for fun and key striker Guillaume Hoarau is just filling his boots constantly. He’s been far and away the best player in ligue 2 this season and again tonight I expect his pace will cause a lot of problems to the Amiens defence. The hosts aren’t a bad team and cant be underestimated, but their priorities lie elsewhere now. The players have that Coupe De France Quarter final to look forward to in a few weeks and it might affect their concentration for a while. Safety is far from secure in the ligue but there is no real urgency to win matches and the situation is still fairly decent. Le Havre have been lucky this season but some might say that they have earned it. You simply dare not back against them in any match these days and tonight I’m going to side with them. Les Ciel et Marine are incredibly hard to beat and only lost 3 games all year. I’ll have

[meatman]

Dijon - Gueugnon - Hosts too short IMO and it might be hard to win against motivated opponents in a derby game

Sedan - Chateauroux - my 6th sense tells me Sedan will fcuk up, although I was close to betting them.

GL all tonight

[allthethings]

meatman, did you consider the overs in Amiens-Le Havre? Odds were the same as Libourne and I must say it took all my strength not to take both overs.

[meatman]

Originally Posted by allthethings

meatman, did you consider the overs in Amiens-Le Havre? Odds were the same as Libourne and I must say it took all my strength not to take both overs.

yeh I did actually, but Le Havre have a habit of keeping clean sheets hence my worry that Amiens wont score. Still, I beleive it shold be an exciting match with a few goals in it with the over a real possibility.

[Roskos]

Two bets for me tonight:
Angers v Clermont @ OVER2.25 2.08 Ladbrokes, 5/10
Dijon v Gueugnon @ OVER2.25 1.98 Ladbrokes, 5/10

In the first game, there is some kind of rivalry between these teams, as they fight to specify who is the best promoted teams in the league. Clermont approach to this game with some kind of confidence after they won and scored total 4 goals in last two games (2 goals against each of Boulongne-A and Ajaccio-H). Even that they are not superior in games away from home, I expect them at least to score a goal tonight and there is good chance to take positive result from the game, as they have some theoretical chances for the third place in the table. On other side Angers will play with feeling for revenge, as they heard some arrogant speech coming from Clermont staff after first game between them. They want to prove that there is not difference between them and in that connection their coach has appoint as a target to finish as best promoted team to the end of season. With good ambitions for both of these teams, I can estimate a good chances for OVER2.25 in tonight game.

According to my estimation, the key for the second bet will be Gueugnon capabilities to score, as Dijon is well equipped to win the game. They have a power in attack and tonight they will play 4-3-3 with Mandanne, Schumasher and Mangione in front line. Especially Schumasher have found fine form, as he scored 4 goals in last 5 games (league and cup). With away team have nothing to lose and it is a derby game, I can see a open game, with good chances for OVER2.25 (Gueugnon won the reverse game by 4-0).

GL tonight

[Valderrama11]

Brest for me on the (0) . They are in great form, and with both teams meandering around in midtable I think Brest have a good chance to turn round what is a poor head to head record against Ajaccio. Brest overpriced imo.

[meatman]

well you sneaked a push there Valderamma thanks to that Brest late goal

it was a bad goal for me though I desperately needed Ajaccio to hold on for me there

This is my first bad night in Ligue 2 since I came back to betting on it - some poor results. There again I always did have a bad feeling about tonight

If Le Havre can hold on to win I will end up -9.5

Montpellier (another 0-0 ) **** me up and also Grenoble with a big shock win

[Lassie]

Happy that Havre held up.... dont despair mate League 1 is there for the weekend to turn things around to positive.
Cheers

[meatman]

Originally Posted by Lassie

Happy that Havre held up.... dont despair mate League 1 is there for the weekend to turn things around to positive.
Cheers

yeh i'm not too concerned, the weekend is still young

[meatman]

Originally Posted by Roskos

Two bets for me tonight:
Angers v Clermont @ OVER2.25 2.08 Ladbrokes, 5/10
Dijon v Gueugnon @ OVER2.25 1.98 Ladbrokes, 5/10

meant to say earlier well done to Roskos for these 2 winners - nice picks