France - Ligue 2 (26-27 Nov 09)

[meatman]

	Thursday 26 November 2009	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	FC Metz v Clermont Foot (19:45 GMT)	1.73	3.7	6.2	100.96 %
	Friday 27 November 2009	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	Dijon FCO v RC Strasbourg (19:00 GMT)	2.22	3.3	4	100.35 %
	En Avant Guingamp v Arles (19:00 GMT)	2.2	3.2	4.1	101.09 %
	Istres v Vannes (19:00 GMT)	2.22	3.3	4	100.35 %
	Laval v CS Sedan Ardennes (19:00 GMT)	2.08	3.4	4.3	100.74 %
	SC Bastia v Stade Brestois 29 (19:00 GMT)	2.64	3.1	3.25	100.91 %
	Tours v Angers SCO (19:00 GMT)	2.06	3.3	4.4	101.57 %
	Le Havre AC v AC Ajaccio (19:30 GMT)	1.87	3.5	5.1	101.66 %
	Nantes Atlantique v LB Châteauroux (19:30 GMT)	1.78	3.75	5.6	100.70 %
	Nîmes Olympique v SM Caen (19:30 GMT)	3.25	3.1	2.6	101.49 %

[meatman]

Metz -0.75 AH @ 1.96 (7/10)

Well, ligue 2 is back after a 3 week break and Metz will be looking to pick up where they left off. Les Grenats won 4 of their last 6 games prior to the international break and showed a distinct improvement in the level of their performances, coming up with some convincing displays. There was a time a couple of months ago where they seemed to drift off the pace and didn’t look like a promotion force, but Yvon Pouliqien’s men managed to turn things around. And quite rightly so because on paper they have one of the best squads in the ligue and so they should be right up there in the table challenging for a place in the top flight. For this match tonight the squad is at virtual full strength, the only worry that the coach has is picking the right sort of XI for the situation.

I just think they should be too strong for Clermont and a class above their opponents. After a sticky start to the campaign, Clermont have definitely improved and shown some decent fight, but I doubt they’ll be able to avoid defeat tonight. They miss a few players to injury and Yatabare is suspended, I doubt they’ll get too much ball possession. Both teams surprisingly had problems in the French cup last week, Metz needing extra time to see off a non league outfit, whilst Clermont were knocked out by lower ligue side Yzeure. But I personally don’t read into the cup too much, certainly as far as there two teams are concerned. I’m surprised that bookies are so generous on Metz. I expected -1 AH odds of about 2.05 here, instead we can get 1.96 on a -0.75 line. For me, this looks like decent value and is worth some fairly high stakes, I fully expect Metz to do a professional job.


Good luck all tonight!

[luckotheoirish]

Two prices that look a little big to me at first glance are Vannes and Arles both at 11/4 with paddy power.I don't have any team news but on stats alone I think these prices look a bit on the generous side.I know the fact that the odds on the draw being so low pushes out the home and away prices but I'm going to do double chance on both with Boyles @ 4/5 Arles and 8/11 Vannes...

[Atko]

On holiday in France this weekend, taking in a few matches. No bets, therefore, from me. I like the look of Laval to beat Sedan at 11/10 and I also think Metz will win this evening. Tours are good value but I think they have a few suspensions (Giroud being one of them) so it's worth checking.

Bonne chance,
Atko

[meatman]

Originally Posted by Atko

On holiday in France this weekend, taking in a few matches. No bets, therefore, from me. I like the look of Laval to beat Sedan at 11/10 and I also think Metz will win this evening. Tours are good value but I think they have a few suspensions (Giroud being one of them) so it's worth checking.

Bonne chance,
Atko

What matches you watching Atko?, have a good time!

[DRAVIDIAN]

Have just a simple question for u meatman does your 7/10 actually means that you give it 70% for a home win.

[JackJarvis]

Bastia vs Brest
Advice:Brest (+0) AH @ 2.12 Ladbrokes
Bastia will be missing midfielder Fabrice Jau (9 games), defender Eric Cubilier (5 games) and captain and striker Pierra-Yves Andre (13 games / 4 goals). Brest have impressed me in Ligue 2 so far this season and despite their 4-3 defeat against Vannes 3 weeks ago, I think they can get back on track here. Despite conceding 4 goals to Vannes, they generally have one of the best defensive records in the league. They are unbeaten in their last 4 away from home in the league with 1 win and 3 draws, the win coming most recently away at Angers (2-1). They were also the first side to beat Caen this season and done so comfortably at home by 2 goals to 0. Bastia have won just 1 of their last 11 games and I can’t have them as favourites at all in this match. They were beaten 1-0 by lower league opposition in the cup last week whereas Brest won 5-0 against similar opposition on the road. No doubt about it, Brest are in much better form than the hosts here and with Bastia missing their 2nd top goalscorer and captain in Cubilier, I can’t see them winning this one. Brest are very tempting at 2/1 to win this game but taking into account their draw record on the road, I’ll play safe and back them level ball at odds against, which is still fantastic value.

[meatman]

Originally Posted by DRAVIDIAN

Have just a simple question for u meatman does your 7/10 actually means that you give it 70% for a home win.

nah 7/10 is just a stake of confidence and value

If your one of those detailed stats guys then I'd probably give about 60-65% on Metz tonight

[DRAVIDIAN]

Originally Posted by meatman

nah 7/10 is just a stake of confidence and value

If your one of those detailed stats guys then I'd probably give about 60-65% on Metz tonight

Thanks meatman right now using a staking system and that % is important.Does any other one use some kind of staking strategy here

[luckotheoirish]

[quote=JackJarvis;1536466]Bastia vs Brest
Advice:Brest (+0) AH @ 2.12 Ladbrokes
Bastia will be missing midfielder Fabrice Jau (9 games), defender Eric Cubilier (5 games) and captain and striker Pierra-Yves Andre (13 games / 4 goals).
Thanks Jack count me in...

[Roskos]

Originally Posted by meatman

... For this match tonight the squad is at virtual full strength, the only worry that the coach has is picking the right sort of XI for the situation....

H-m-m! LFP (http://lfp.fr) announce starting XI for both teams teams and we can see that Yvon POULIQUEN have left on the bench both of Pied (11/2 matches; 939mins; 3 goals; 2 assists) and Rocchi (12/0; 1048mins; 0goals; 1 assist), but put straight from the first minute both of Vincent Bessat (3/9; 435; 0; 0) and Nuno Miguel Frechaut (5/1; 413; 0; 0). Maybe he wants to save some players as there will be midweek round next week, but I think that to put Pied on the bench is bad decision as he provides a lot of strength in the attack and Rocchi maid a good partnership with Cardy.

Let's hope that he makes the successful decision.

By the way Clermont have 3 forwards in starting XI: Haquin (7goals; 1 assist; 1101 minutes), Armand (1; 1; 623) and Najih (1; 0; 218).

[Mahno]

Thanks Meaty
It was close but Metz finaly won

[meatman]

Cheers Manho

Yeh that was fairly a poor game and Metz only just managed to prevail - a crazy 10 minute period of goals.

Metz weren't as good as I ainticipated, I think overall a draw would've been fair. They played poorly but two clincial finishes were the key. Papiss Cisse's goal was very opportunistic and a classy overhead.

Still, I'm pleased to have got out of there with a half win. Bookies punished for offering the -0.75 @ decent odds rather than a -1.

[meatman]

Brest (0) AH @ 2.17 (4/10)

Agree with Jackjarvis on this one, Bastia had a small reprieve a few weeks ago when they beat local rivals Ajaccio 1-0 at home, but followed that up with a poor 0-2 loss at Angers (when they were easily beaten). Since the international break, things haven’t got much better for them either and last week they suffered a shock defeat in the French cup away against lower ligue opposition. Its just the latest in a string of mishaps for the Corsicans, surely soon the president must think about a managerial change because clearly things just aren’t working at the moment. I expect them to struggle tonight and I just don’t see why bookies make them favourites. In my eyes, that tag should be given to Brest, a useful team who arrive here in good form. The Bretons had gone on an 8 match unbeaten run prior to losing at home to Vannes (3-4), but that was a freak match where they lost concentration almost thinking they’d have things easy. I doubt they’ll make the same mistake here and odds of 2.17 on a 0AH look far too big. Bastia miss key striker Pierre Yves Andre, without that old dog they hardly look like scoring any goals these days. The hosts also miss a few other players to injury whilst the Brest squad is in good condition.


Laval -0.5 AH @ 2.08 (5/10)

Laval have only won 1 of their last 4 matches at home but for me they are a team that always need to be respected. The way they play their football is fairly impressive and they’ve performed even better than I expected this season. I just think this looks like an ideal chance for them to beat Sedan, a side who are certainly loose cannons, but have tended to be consistently poor away from home. Its been a while since they last produced a decent display on the road and more worryingly there have been some recent thrashings, conceding 9 goals in their last 3 away games. Laval miss key striker Fabrice do Marcelinho tonight, and that is a blow, but hopefully someone else will convert the chances, usually Laval have some decent possession at home although can be weak defensively. I don’t expect Sedan to sit back and defend, their natural instinct is to attack, over 2.5 is a possibility here. Personally, I think they are a fading force and aren’t as good as they were last season, too many times they have failed to produce the goods away from home. Laval @ 2.08 seems like a decent price, I think they have a good chance to get maximum points tonight.


Tours -0.5 AH @ 2.03 (4/10)

Tours have been the scrounge of me recently, most of my bets on their matches this season have either lost of been pushes. They are a good team who I rate fairly highly, but sadly they’ve been having ‘draw syndrome’ especially at home where too many times they’ve failed to kill opposition off. I think they should be able to return to winning ways tonight, as long as they take their chances. Angers have struggled a lot this season, especially away where they just haven’t been able to pick many decent results up. Compared to last campaign, the westerners aren’t as strong and cant be ranked as highly. Prior to the international break they played well at home to Bastia, but that was facing the side bottom of the division. I expect this’ll be a much tougher test, Tours usually play with good pace, energy and passion here, they should be able to prevail. I’ve backed them in their last 3 home games, annoyingly all of them ended as draws, yet on the road they also managed to produce some good results. Surely its time they won again at Le Stade Vallee du Cher, odds of 2.03 look fairly decent to me.


Caen -0.25 AH @ 2.16 (3/10)

Well Caen might’ve had a couple of poor matches in which they failed to score any goals, but I’m not going to desert them just yet. I still think they’re the best side in the division, certainly in terms of defence and midfield. One big problem the have now (which I highlighted at the start of the season) is a lack of strikers. Both Toudic and Traore are injured and have undergone operations recently, I don’t expect either will be back to proper full fitness until after the winter break. But when you look in more detail Toudic had only netted 4 times so far and Traore twice, so neither have been mega prolific goalscorers. Its time for the pacey youngsters such as El Arabi and Nabab to prove their worth and you know that Caen are always capable of getting goals from midfield as well. Nimes are unbeaten at home so far this season and you know its never an easy place to come, the atmosphere should be pretty hot. But Les Crocos have also been a bit inconsistent recently, an example being against Arles where they didn’t play as well as expected. I don’t expect this game will contain many goals and I’m hoping that Caen can just show their quality by getting the job done. Already this season we’ve seen them play poorly yet still win, they have that useful habit of keeping momentum going. All it takes is one moment of class to change a match, hopefully that’s what’ll happen. I’m only going to stake small on this -0.25 AH as it’s a dangerous bet, but I have a feeling for something like 0-1 or 1-2.

[meatman]

In the other games :-

Dijon - Strasbourg

It all depends what sort of Strasbourg turns up, the good the bad or the ugly. Personally, I think, bookies are about right here, if not a little short on Dijon. If I had to stick my neck out then I’d say home win, but who knows?

Guingamp - Arles

I just don’t get Arles, they are performing much better than they should be, it doesn’t make sense! Would love to take Guingamp, but its too risky and they often struggle to score goals. Hurts me to say it, but I expect Arles to avoid defeat yet again….

Istres - Vannes

If I had a bit of bottle then I’d back Vannes +0.25 here, I fancy them to get something. Istres I really don’t rate much and this could be a dire game, low scoring but X2 my prediction.

Le Havre - Ajaccio

Maybe a good chance of a home win, but the odds perhaps not tempting enough. Ajaccio will come here attempting to park a bus and just be terribly negative. Le Havre can struggle against these sort of teams and it might take a moment of magic and class to break the deadlock.

Nantes - Chateauroux

Just 1 win in 6 games, I cant be doing with these jokers for the moment, its clear Nantes just cant combine well as a team. On paper they have loads of quality, but nobody can gel together. Until they get back into form I just cant back them anymore.


Good luck all tonight!

[Atko]

Meatman, I'm going to Reims vs Beauvais, PSG vs Auxerre and Lyon vs Rennes. Can't wait.

As for tonight, I'm in concordance with you and the following are official bets of mine (no write-up from me I'm afraid, no time). I'll be taking Brest outright, the odds are huge on them and worth the risk - Bastia have so many players suspended and injured. Tours have a good, full squad so I'll take them to beat Angers. I'll also punt on Laval, bet of the week for me. Much the same as everyone else, but these are the standouts.

[meatman]

Originally Posted by Atko

Meatman, I'm going to Reims vs Beauvais, PSG vs Auxerre and Lyon vs Rennes. Can't wait.

As for tonight, I'm in concordance with you and the following are official bets of mine (no write-up from me I'm afraid, no time). I'll be taking Brest outright, the odds are huge on them and worth the risk - Bastia have so many players suspended and injured. Tours have a good, full squad so I'll take them to beat Angers. I'll also punt on Laval, bet of the week for me. Much the same as everyone else, but these are the standouts.

Enjoy fella, be interesting to hear the analysis of your scouting mission

[kulikTS]

I will try put my $ on Nantes HW. They are in weak form, but I count on their awakening (personally, I like such matches). So any team news about this match ?

[luckotheoirish]

Originally Posted by kulikTS

I will try put my $ on Nantes HW. They are in weak form, but I count on their awakening (personally, I like such matches). So any team news about this match ?

Sorry I don't have any team news but I wouldn't be too quick to back Nantes.I'm not trying to put you off and if you like this kind of bet then bet away.Their home record is good but as you said yourself very weak recent form.Reasonable teams usually 'reawaken' as you say but the question is when?
Personally I wouldn't bet on a team with bad form against a team with good away form unless I had some more news.I'd definately be looking for other factors,like team news or some reason for recovery i.e. new signing etc.But the best of irish luck to you with this bet.....

[Knoxy]

1-0 Bastia after 50 seconds