France - Ligue 1 (Feb 9-10)

[davidmphill]

Saturday 9 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
PSG v Le Mans UC72 (14:00GMT)	1.83	3.45	5.75	101%	Details »
Hide « PSG v Le Mans UC72
Bordeaux v Metz (19:00GMT)	1.40	4.50	11.00	103%	Details »
Hide « Bordeaux v Metz
Lyon v Sochaux (19:00GMT)	1.40	4.60	11.00	102%	Details »
Hide « Lyon v Sochaux
Monaco v Lille (19:00GMT)	2.04	3.25	4.80	101%	Details »
Hide « Monaco v Lille
Nancy v Toulouse (19:00GMT)	1.86	3.40	5.25	102%	Details »
Hide « Nancy v Toulouse
RC Strasbourg v Saint-Étienne (19:00GMT)	2.32	3.20	3.75	101%	Details »
Hide « RC Strasbourg v Saint-Étienne
Stade Rennais v Auxerre (19:00GMT)	2.05	3.25	4.20	103%	Details »
Hide « Stade Rennais v Auxerre
Valenciennes v Lorient (19:00GMT)	2.25	3.10	4.00	102%	Details »
Hide « Valenciennes v Lorient
Sunday 10 February 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Caen v RC Lens (17:00GMT)	2.32	3.10	3.75	102%	Details »
Hide « Caen v RC Lens
OGC Nice v Marseille (19:55GMT)	2.63	3.00	3.10	104%	Details »

[lunatism]

Event	OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS v FC Sochaux
Selection	OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS (1.25 (0: 1 1/4)) (Asian Handicap)
Strength	7/10
Date	08/02/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.94 (Back)
Reasoning	why not take a look at my thread Here I explain about my system and list all my selections throughout the week But if you want to see a few stats (generated by my system)....... RATING:31 SCORE PREDICTION:2 - 0 HOME:77% DRAW:21% AWAY:2%

[meatman]

PSG -0.5 AH @ 1.84 Canbet 4/10


A run of just 1 loss in 5 ligue games has helped ease the pressure upon Paul Le Guen and PSG. This, in combination with a couple of cup success also means that things are going much better for the capital club now. There have been a lot of positives in recent weeks, not least the upturn in home form, but also the solidity of the defence which has conceded few goals. Finally the team are starting to show their potential, which everyone knew they had in them. The main aim now is to win a trophy and finish in the best possible ligue position. With a lot of other teams in the top half of the table struggling, I don’t think it would be a surprise to see PSG end up finishing inside the top 6. This weekend they will eye 3 points at home to a Le Mans side that has been struggling recently. They won their last ligue match, an important success facing Monaco, although this was a bit lucky. Last Saturday they were dumped out of the French Cup by Bordeaux. Le Mans have lost a lot of players to the African Nations Cup, although most should return now. But away from home they just cant be relied upon, and they do play PSG at a bad time. The hosts have won their last 3 matches at Le Parc De Princes 3-0, so preference must go with them again for this encounter.


Bordeaux -1.25 AH @ 1.94 188bet 3/10

If Bordeaux are to have any realistic title ambitions then they simply cant afford to slip up against Metz. ‘Les Girondins’ sit 4 points behind an inconsistent Lyon, and if they can keep up the pressure on Les Gones, then they would appear to have every chance of causing an upset. On paper, this should be a fairly easy win for the hosts, especially if they can score an early goal, then they should have few problems, but Metz have been playing better recently. New manager syndrome has helped them get a few more impressive results, the best of which was away to Strasbourg in the cup last week (0-3). But they have little or nothing to play for in the ligue because their relegation fate is virtually sealed. There’s no doubt that the priority lies with the cup and they just cant be relied upon in ligue 1. Metz cant be written off completely here but Bureaux really should have too much quality. As soon as they score 1 goal then the floodgates could open and it should end up as a fairly comfortable win. I hate betting any line more than -1.25 in France, and I can only stake small, but I do like the -1.25 here.



Toulouse +0.5 AH @ 2.11 Canbet 3/10


Nancy have really lost their way and come into this match with no win in 10 games. Its now over 2 months ago since their last victory and their bad ligue form has also coincided with a couple of cup disappointments. The biggest blow was losing away to 5th division Carqeufou last week and this was the ultimate low of the season for the Lorraine side. Manager, Pablo Correia seriously criticised his team for this defeat and its hard to see the side hitting back immediately. At home, Nancy are strong and have won 7/11 times so far, but they certainly just can be relied upon anymore. Facing Toulouse would appear to be a good chance to get back to winning ways, but the visitors have the advantage of having a week of rest. They weren’t involved in the cup so it was an ideal chance for the squad to recharge its batteries. No win in 5 games has left them hovering dangerously just 1 point above the relegation zone, and recent performances have been poor. These 2 teams are among two of the worst in the current form table and it’s a hard match to predict. Certainly the value lies with the visitors though and Nancy are far too short in terms of odds. I guess the question is whether or not you are brave enough to bet Toulouse on the +0.5? It's a risk, but I'll take it.

[meatman]

Rennes -0.5 AH @ 2.05 Ascot Sports 4/10


A couple of teams in fairly poor form meet here and both will have to hit back from disappointing French Cup defeats last weekend. For Rennes, it wasn’t quite so bad as they took Lorient all the way to penalties, so not a disgraceful way to get knocked out. But after a good start to the season, things haven’t been as good for Rennes and they have seriously struggled to find victories in recent weeks. The introduction of Guy Lacombe has helped improve their performances though and he’s only lost 1 match so far during his reign. The key now is that they get 3 points on a more regular basis, especially at home. It looks like they should have a decent chance of doing that here because Auxerre are a team in a real mess. Already situated inside the relegation zone, they were thrashed 0-3 by ligue 2 side Bastia in the cup last weekend, a major embarrassment. The pressure is on the players and also coach Jean Fernandez. Everyone knows that they have some massive problems away from home where they have already lost 7/11 times this year. I don't think the odds are particularly sensational, but I'll side with Rennes in this one.



Strasbourg -0.25 AH @ 1.90 Pinnacle 4/10

Strasbourg will be eying the 3 points against the worst away side in the ligue. But they will have to hit back from their embarrassing derby defeat in the cup last weekend to Metz (0-3). That competition wasn’t much of a priority this season, but it might’ve dented the confidence of the players. But now it looks as if they do have a fine chance to hit back immediately and inflict on St Etienne a 10th away defeat of the year. ‘Les Verts’ just haven’t performed on the road, something that some people claim simply must change soon. They aren’t a bad team and if they can just improve their performances a bit then they should be able to pick up more points on their travels. One bit of good news for St Etienne is the return of key attacker Pascal Feindouno from the African nations cup. Along with Bayal Sall of Senegal, these have been the only 2 absentees recently, so now the squad should be in prime condition. Preference will be with the 1X bet, simply because the odds are so generous. Until St Etienne do actually get some better results on the road then they cant be relied upon, so for now its best to keep going against them.



Valenciennes -0.25 AH @ 1.91 Canbet 4/10


Valenciennes will be aiming to end a 3 match losing run here but they can take some comfort from the fact that they have the 2nd best home record in ligue 1. Recent form hasn’t been so good but they have won 8/11 times at Le Stade Nungesser so far, often producing some excellent performances in front of their own fans. One of the key parts to Valenciennes success here has been the superb defence, which has kept a high number of clean sheets. I think they will fancy their chances of victory facing Lorient who usually tend to be a negative team away from home. They will come here looking to defend, something which Valenciennes will enjoy more. The strength of the hosts is in attack and they would rather be on the front foot attacking rather than put under pressure at the back. Lorient cant be underestimated at the moment because they have been hard to beat, but there’s no doubt this will be a tough trip. Few goals could be scored and a 0-0 draw is a possibility, but id say the hosts can claim something like a 1-0 or 2-0 success.

[meatman]

Lyon - Sochaux

Lyon have slipped up a bit recently and only won 2 of their last 7 games. The champions still have a 4 point lead at the top of the table, but teams like Bordeaux are now starting to breathe down their necks and increasing the pressure. They are having to fight hard and a lot of their usual fluency is gone. Last weekend they were lucky to beat a 4th division side 1-0 in the cup, they were certainly far from their best. There’s no doubt that ‘Les Gones’ could definitely jump back into form at any moment, but they just cant be relied upon currently. Sochaux will come here fighting hard and will be desperate to get one over their old boss, Alain Perrin. The visitors are still inside the relegation zone, but this is a bit of a false position and they have been unlucky this season. Sochaux’s best results have come away from home where they have the 5th best record in the whole division. The Montbelliard club haven’t beaten Lyon for nearly 6 years, but have only lost in 1 of their last 4 trips to Le Stade Gerland. This wont be easy for the hosts and they could easily slip up again. The best option IMO is to refrain from betting in this dangerous match.

No bet



Monaco - Lille

This looks set to be a close tight match between a couple of in form teams. However, after a good start to 2008, Monaco have slipped off the pace a bit in the last 2 weeks and lost consecutive matches in both ligue and cup. This is a blow for the south coast side who’s only remaining aim now is to try and finish in the highest ligue position possible. But Monaco can be so hard to predict and you never know what your going to get with them. On home turf they have been more solid in recent weeks where they have won 3 of their last 4. But Lille come here unbeaten in 5 and continue to fight hard in their battle to avoid relegation. I’m pretty sure they will set up with a defensive formation and aim to keep a clean sheet. They are draw specialists and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this clash also ended all square. My prediction is a draw, but it's probably best not to bet.


No bet

[atothek]

Thanks for the previews meatman!
My two cents about the Rennes - Auxerre game:
You are talking about the embarrassment that Auxerre had brought on themselves in that cup game and you are right, but as far as i know in most cases this kind of things goes in the team's favor. The team will usually try to make it up in the other game and will come out playing more focused and motivated. Don't forget that Sammy Traore is back from the ANC. He was the one who stabilized Auxerre's defense more or less. Besides Rennes isn't in a perfect condition either: Leroy is out, Cheyrou is still playing in defense, Mbia and Mensah are still at the ANC. Auxerre has brought Munteanu and the french under 21 youngster Quercia, so i think attack-wise this is an equal game. Whoever will be more confident in the defensive line and the midfield will take the points. I think that Auxerre is able to get something from this game.

[meatman]

PSG were fairly shyte, especially from open play, but still should've won

All the chances fell to the wrong man - fcuking Diane who just couldnt hit the net

Stephane Moulin (ref) had a bad game, always blowing his whistle for the slightest thing, not impressive at all

Poor start to the day.........

[meatman]

And sadly yet another referee fcuks me up today. Now it's Tony fcuking w@nker Chapron in the last minute. He awarded Nancy a very dubious penalty to completely ruin my Toulouse +0.5 bet. Honestly I get fed up with some of these ***** in charge sometimes, let's have some bloody proper technology instead of these muppets.

I am owed a decision by French offiicals!!




The day ends up -1 for me, the good thing was that I managed to get back most of the PSG losses from earlier.

Strasbourg, Valenciennes and Bordeaux all won convincingly 3-0

Auxerre claimed a rare away win, completely deserved against a lacklustre Rennes.

@ Athotek - it was a brave bet on Auxerre by you, but you chose a good day for them to produce away....... well done

[meatman]

Caen -0.25 AH @ 2.02 Pinnacle 3/10

This looks set to be an interesting match between 2 teams that would appear to be in different form. Caen haven’t had the best of starts to 2008. They have yet to win a match and also been dumped out of the French Cup at the 1st hurdle. They have failed to recapture their 2007 form and in their last ligue match suffered a massive 1-6 defeat in Marseille. Luckily they have now had 2 weeks to recover from this blow and will hopefully be refocused ahead of this clash. Caen’s home form must be respected and they have only lost twice in front of their own fans. Both of these losses were at the start of the season and Le Stade Mihel D’ornano has turned into a fortress. Lens have had a pretty good 2007 so far and managed to obtain quite a few decent results. One of them was an away success in Valenciennes, however there are still some question marks about them on the road. Like their opponents, they have also had a 2 week break ahead of this game so should be fairly refreshed. I think preference still will go with Caen, at least not to lose. Lens will fight hard and are dangerous opponents at the moment, but home advantage can never be underestimated in ligue 1.



Nice (0) AH @ 1.85 Bet365 5/10


Both teams come into this match in good form although home advantage should give Nice the edge. Frederic Antonetti’s are unbeaten in 13 games and have been one of the better teams in ligue 1 this season. At home they are traditionally strong and have lost just 9 of their last 68 at Le Stade Du Ray, the last of which was over a year ago now. This stadium is a fortress and Marseille are actually one of the few teams to have won here in the last 5 years. That happened a couple of seasons ago, but for them to repeat it again now would be a surprise. Nevertheless, OM have been in good form recently obtaining some excellent victories, but all of them have been at home. On the road they never play with the same sort of tempo and pace, often being outplayed. Until they can regularly produce the goods on their travels then they simply cant be relied upon. Once again this weekend, bookies overestimate Marseille and reputation has enabled Nice to be at an excellent price. One of the main rules in ligue 1 is to never take on Nice at home, and this game is no exception. Preference at very generous odds will definitely go with the 0AH as big odds.