France - Ligue 1 (15-16 Nov 08)

[meatman]

Saturday 15 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Auxerre v Sochaux (18:00GMT)	2.02	3.15	5.00	101.25 %	Details »
Hide « Auxerre v Sochaux
Le Havre v PSG (18:00GMT)	3.50	3.05	2.54	100.73 %	Details »
Hide « Le Havre v PSG
Le Mans v Valenciennes (18:00GMT)	1.72	3.40	7.20	101.44 %	Details »
Hide « Le Mans v Valenciennes
Marseille v Lorient (18:00GMT)	1.46	4.33	10.50	101.09 %	Details »
Hide « Marseille v Lorient
Nancy v Caen (18:00GMT)	2.10	3.30	4.50	100.14 %	Details »
Hide « Nancy v Caen
Toulouse v Grenoble (18:00GMT)	2.06	3.20	5.00	99.79 %	Details »
Hide « Toulouse v Grenoble
Lille v Saint-Étienne (20:00GMT)	1.80	3.40	6.20	101.10 %	Details »
Hide « Lille v Saint-Étienne
Sunday 16 November 2008	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
OGC Nice v Nantes (16:00GMT)	1.88	3.35	5.75	100.43 %	Details »
Hide « OGC Nice v Nantes
Stade Rennais v Monaco (16:00GMT)	1.83	3.40	5.50	102.14 %	Details »
Hide « Stade Rennais v Monaco
Lyon v Bordeaux (20:00GMT)	1.82	3.55	6.00	99.78 %	Details »

[meatman]

Marseille -1 AH @ 1.70 7/10

Both of these teams weren’t involved in the midweek Coupe De La Ligue so should be fairly fresh for this match. After a couple of dodgy games, Marseille have hit back with a few decent wins and will be confident of maintaining their momentum. OM sit 4 points behind leaders Lyon, but know that they are still strongly in touch with Les Gones. Eric Geret’s men went through a period where they couldn’t score enough goals, but now the strikers have rediscovered their touch and the team has netted 9 goals in its last 3 games. Key attacker, Baky Kone is injured for this match, but I still expect the likes of Niang and Ben Arfa to cause plenty of problems to Lorient.

The visitors have been below par for most of the campaign, and despite a recent change of fortunes, they lost against Nice last weekend (0-1). This was a poor performance by Les Merlus and they struggled to create chances in attack, something which I expect will continue here at Le Stade Velodrome. An area of even bigger concern is the goalkeeping position. First choice duo, Audard and Cappone look set to be ruled out, so once again rookie custodian Joinel will probably step into the breach. I expect he will be tested strongly and ultimately his lack of experience might show though. I would be surprised if Marseille didn’t win this match with ease, there is little to suggest that they will have many problems. I'm forced to take this bet early because the odds look like dropping rapidly on OM. I prefer to take the -1 option rather than -1.25. Generally it's not a good idea to take handicaps bigger than -1 on anyone except Lyon in France.



Le Mans -0.75 AH @ 1.91 5/10

Le Mans lost 1-2 at Sochaux last weekend and this was their 3rd consecutive defeat. After a flying start to the new season, reality is now starting to set in for Yves Bertucci’s men and they will be desperate to get back to winning ways in this match. Fortunately, they face the team that is currently worst of anyone in ligue 1, and who are usually atrocious on their travels. Valenciennes arrive here under real pressure and are without a win in 10 games. They sit rock bottom of the table, and at the moment they look a very strong candidate for relegation. In the last couple of years, their excellent home form has managed to keep them in the top flight, but I knew that as soon as this dried up, then they would struggle to keep afloat. On the road they are usually woeful and haven’t won an away game for an eternity.

Coach, Antoine Koumbouare will be desperate to pick up at least a draw here, but the simple fact is that VA just aren’t playing well enough. They cant score goals and they cant seem to defend, a recipe for disaster. Le Mans might have hit a sticky spell, but this game comes at a good time for them. I would be surprised if they failed to take maximum points out of the fixture. The odds look like they will keep dropping on the hosts, so I'm going to take this -0.75 AH @ decent odds whilst I can.

[Paul Ross]

I'm laying Nancy @ 2.12 Betfair.

I think they are a very short price, and I just can't see how it's justified.

It can only be because they are unbeaten at home, but that doesn't overly concern me. To be a 2.12 I would expect them to have much better ratings than I have them at and they really struggle to score goals too.

Caen's ratings haven't been to much better either, but they are better. Significantly better in their last 2 away games too, where they had a good away win at Toulouse and a creditable 2-2 draw at Lille.

I think Caen can turn them over, but I'm happy knowing that I can lay Nancy @ 2.12, awful price.

[meatman]

Lille -0.75 AH @ 1.98 4/10

The big news story of the week in Ligue 1 was the sacking of St Etienne coach Laurent Roussey. A run of 5 consecutive defeats signalled the end of his reign, the 0-3 home loss against Rennes the absolute final straw for the club presidents. The board has acted quickly and found an immediate replacement - Alain Perrin. This is an ironic move because last season he was in charge of arch rivals Lyon. It will be interesting to see how he fares, but personally I’ve never rated him very highly. This weekend’s fixture is a tough start for him as well, away against high flying Lille. Les Dogues were disappointing last weekend when they lost 0-1 at PSG, this defeat ending a great run of 9 unbeaten matches. Coach, Rudy Garcia is sure to demand that his team hits back as soon as possible, and they should be fully refreshed ahead of this encounter. New manager syndrome is often a factor which sparks life into some teams, but I’d be surprised if St Etienne managed to avoid defeat here at Le Stade Metropole. Most things point to Lille prevailing, so I’ll side with the hosts on this -0.75 line.

[marseille]

all probable team for tonight :

http://www.lequipe.fr/Allos/L1_Lequipe-probable_1.html

http://www.lequipe.fr/Allos/L1_Lequipe-probable_2.html

[Punto Banco]

Wow I forgot about posting up my selections etc for this week...

November
Home (A)	Away (B)	Selection	Stake	Odds	Result	Result	Return	Profit/Loss
Lille	St Etienne	Lille	5	1.72
Lille	St Etienne	Lille (-1.5)	3	3.3
Marseille	Lorient	Marseille (-1.5)	5	2.3
Lyon	Bordeaux	Over (2.5)	6	2.16
Lyon	Bordeaux	Over (3.5)	2	4

Not too much time.... you always have to fancy Marseille to cover bigger end handicaps... -1 is safer but to hell with that.... 4-1 all the way

Lille dissapointed away from home last start to an inconsistent PSG side but simply cannot falter at home against a team such as St Etienne with a dismal away record...

This fixtue commonly produces goals and this is certainly at the right location as I see it being a high scoring but close afair... Lyon should not be able to stop Bordeaux from netting and surely they will fire themselves with some key players rested midweek for their cup loss to Metz... good luck everyone...

[Djordje]

Lille looks like great bet tonight against St Etienne. They were hard to beat this season, they are doing great at home (4-1-1), and against one of the weakest sides in league they have all the chances to record another win at home.

St Etienne are really struggling. They have huge problems to score goals (only 8 in 13 games), while on the road they managed to find the net only twice in 6 games - in 1-1 draw vs Bordeaux and in 1-3 defeat at Marseille.

Price for Lille is 1.80 at Stan James, and it is way too high. Anything higher than 1.65 for a home win is backable here.

[marseille]

Too many low odd on this round and i don't find real value on 1x2 here.I choose to make only one preview on Marseille - Lorient and i think could be the most intresting one .

Marseille got occasion to take some point on Lyon or Bordeaux this round and after a week without play receive Lorient on stade velodrome tonight.Lot of miss for Lorient team with player like Fabien Audard, Christophe Jallet, Yann Jouffre,Saifi,Hamed Namouchi,Sylvain Marchal.At Marseille only Kone is injured and Valbuena take his place

Probable team :

Mandanda - Bonnart, Cana (cap.), Hilton, Taiwo - Mbami, Be. Cheyrou, Ziani, Ben Arfa - Niang, Valbuena

Cappone - Soro, Genton, Ciani, Le Lan - Amalfitano, Ewolo, Mansouri, Morel -Gameiro, Abriel


Main pick:
Over 2.5 1.80 middle/high stake
Niang to score 2.20 middle stake bwin
1st goal before 30th min 1.85 middle stake interwetten

Additional intresting pick:
Valbuena to score 4.67 little stake bwin
Ben Arfa to score 5.00 little stake bwin
Over 1.5 HT 2.75 little/middle stake Sportingbet

My call : 3-1

Gl all

[maxzorn]

really surprised I haven't read any predictions on Auxerre vs. Sochaux?

[maxzorn]

Another interesting matchup is Grenoble away to Toulouse. The new boys Grenoble have only lost once on their travels thus far this season 3-3-1, with a goal difference of +2 (GF = 9, GA = 7) . On the other-hand Toulouse have only lost once at home with a record of 3-2-1 and also a goal difference of +2 (GF = 5, GA = 3).

I smell a draw

Edit#2: BTW that one loss away for Grenoble was to Lyon 0-2. They've beaten St. Etienne,PSG and Sochaux, drawing Lorient,Caen and Valenciennes all away

[meatman]

I'm really starting to lose faith with ligue 1 now, Saturdays are becoming a complete contrast to the excellent L2 Friday nights

Seriously everything looked rosy around the hour mark, VA 1-0 up and dominating, and OM 2-0 up and in complete control.

VA shouldve won by more, but at least held on.

OM just a complete choke job conceding 3 goals in the last 15 mins??

WTF, this is a pure mad place. I don't care about ligue 1 anymore if this sort of thing keeps happening. It can fcuk right off

[Camino]

can someone write a review of what just happened in OM-lorient ?? i mean wtf ?? 3 goals conceded by om in 15 min ??

so f..king dissapointed....how could this be possible ? om were amateurs or what ?

had om along with heerenveen......

[meatman]

Yeh I watched the whole match, OM were in complete control until about the 65th min when they started too relax a bit. Lorient got one and then keeper Mandanda made a mistake for the 2nd.

Just pure crazyness really, Lorient were very clinical and OM just completely choked.

I've never seen anything like this in France for a long time, quite remarkable. It really does sum up how stupid this ligue is at the moment.

[meatman]

Lille 2-0 up

so are they next to blow the dreaded 2-0 lead? Fed up with these recently

[Camino]

thx meatman ....you're right .. only in ligue 1 could happen such things....one completely out of form team like lorient could score 3 goals in 14 min ! ...
f..king outrageous !

[marseille]

big mistake referee on this match.Why penalty ??foul was before 18m line.I prefered refree give freekick and RED card....

Niang miss a 99% goal in first 10min.one goal disallow but was not offside...

amazing match if you are a Lorient fan....

[marseille]

Originally Posted by meatman

Lille 2-0 up

so are they next to blow the dreaded 2-0 lead? Fed up with these recently

OMG ASSE will take a trash score again...

[impressivegol]

WTF...just got in and saw marsielle lost...of course a little bit of disappointment, but just another losing bet.....then i click and see how the scores happend. did they just go into the locker room after 60min??? you would think with bord-lyon playing tomorrow they would've came to play for 90. unbelivable

[meatman]

I honestly thought OM were for real this seaosn and that they could challenge Lyon, but not after this performance. Clearly they haven't got it mentally, I think they will struggle to recover from this loss.

Lille easily beat SE, it would've been a cricket score had it not been for Janot

You know, I only end up losing 1pt today but I'm gutted. That OM result has hit me hard. I made 3 good choices today, made the right decisions and avoided the dangerous matches.

But I think i'd rather be a lucky punter than a good one sometimes, please can I just have some rub of the green in ligue 1!!!!!!

[maxzorn]

Well Grenoble was a complete dud but at least LeMans paid off and I stayed clear of Marseille, Lorient is quite the boogie-man team for men and betting.

Cheers All