France - Le Championnat (19-20 Nov 05)

[davidmphill]

Lens v Metz

Can't see anything but a comfortable home win here for Lens. Lens are unbeaten in the league since the first round of games when thet lost to Nantes. Since that day they've gon e unbeaten and had a great 7-0 home win over Santini's Auxerre. Since that win they've played 10 games and drawn 9 of them! That sequence should end with the visit of Metz who until last time out hadn;t won all season and they ended that run with a much needed win at home to Ajaccio. 5 defeats and 2 draws have come on the road for Metz. The h2h of late is 4-4-1 in favour of the home side who won this fixture 2-0 last season and that wouldn't be far wrong as a correct score.

Lens 8/10 @ 1.57 betfair

[meatman]

Ajaccio v Sochaux

Well after a good start to the season Ajaccio now find themselves in the relegation zone. In their last match they drew 0-0 at home against Lens and it is essential that they get back to winning ways soon. They have every chance here against Sochaux team that have struggled all season. I heard that key striker Ilan is out for the rest of the year. If this is the case then they may well be heading down this season. This is a 6 pointer match no doubt about it and a result is pretty difficult to call but I expect few goals. Neither team will want to give anything away and defences are likely to be on top. I cannot see Sochaux scoring here, without Ilan they will be nothing upfront to be honest and will find it tough to get past an Ajaccio defence that has been very solid at home all season. The Corsicans have kept 4/5 recent clean sheets in front of their own fans and they will be tough here. 0-0 is certainly a possibility but I fancy them to nick this one 1-0. Either way the best bet here will definitely be under 2.5 goals

Bet
Under 2.5 goals 1.53 Betfair 8/10
CS 1-0 7.20 Betfair 1/10

[meatman]

Auxerre v Lille

This is a match that I expect Auxerre to win but it wont be easy for them as Lille are in pretty decent form. Auxerre are one of the best home teams in the league and have won 4/5 at Le Abbe Deschamps so far. Only the invincible Lyon have left with anything and this place really is a fortress. In fact Lyon are the only away team who have even managed to score here so far as Auxerre have kept 4/5 home clean sheets. You really do have to fancy them for victory.

But Lille will be tough opponents. They are unbeaten in 5 games and have not performed too badly away from home this season. Last time out they managed to come from behind to claim a 1-1 draw at Marseille and they have netted in 5/6 away games so far. But this will be a tough test for them away at Auxerre. I will bet on the home team here but not without CS 1-1 cover.

Bet
Auxerre 2.30 William Hill 5/10
CS 1-1 6.20 Betfair 1/10 (cover)

[meatman]

Nancy v Le Mans

This match being played between two promoted teams and last season it was Nancy that edged out Le Mans for the Ligue 2 crown. And both teams have had solid starts in Ligue 1 this season. Le Mans sit on 22 points and Nancy on 17. Both look to be well safe from relegation at this point.

For this match I fancy Nancy for victory. The team from Lorraine have won 3/5 recent games at home and are a tough team to face on home turf. It will be very tough for Le Mans here and I expect them to fall to defeat. They have now lost their last 3 matches on the road and have also struggled for goals away from home. They have only scored goals in 1 road match so far, a terrible record. I just cannot see them winning here at Nancy and I believe the best they will do is a 0-0 draw. I will bet on Nancy here and cover the goaless draw.

Bet
Nancy 2.20 Skybet 5/10
CS 0-0 7.80 Belfair (cover) 1/10

[meatman]

Lyon v Troyes

Lyon should win this one but they offer no value IMO. They’ve won 11/13 this season but worth remembering that they have yet to win by a 2 goal margin at home. The -1 bet offers no value at all. No bet for me in this match but worth coupling up with Lens for a double. Lyon have Juninho suspended for this match.

Lens v Metz

I fancy a Lens victory in this match but in not gonna bet the single on them at such short odds. You’ve gotta remember that Lens have drawn 9/10 recent games and there is always the risk they may do it again. I did fancy under 2.5 goals here but Metz’ defence is so bad that they are capable of conceding shitloads. I will bet CS 1-0 here as an outshot.

Bet
CS 1-0 6.50 Coral 1/10
Lyon and Lens double 1.95 Totesport 5/10

[meatman]

Originally Posted by davidmphill

Lens v Metz

Can't see anything but a comfortable home win here for Lens. Lens are unbeaten in the league since the first round of games when thet lost to Nantes. Since that day they've gon e unbeaten and had a great 7-0 home win over Santini's Auxerre. Since that win they've played 10 games and drawn 9 of them! That sequence should end with the visit of Metz who until last time out hadn;t won all season and they ended that run with a much needed win at home to Ajaccio. 5 defeats and 2 draws have come on the road for Metz. The h2h of late is 4-4-1 in favour of the home side who won this fixture 2-0 last season and that wouldn't be far wrong as a correct score.

Lens 8/10 @ 1.57 betfair

only danger is 1-1 IMO david - maybe worth a cover bet

[davidmphill]

Lyon v Troyes

One of the nailed on bets of the weekend you'd like to think! Lyon are going great gune under Gerard Houlliers stewardship this season and easily occupy top spot in France. Troyes on other hands are struggling near the foot as expected following their promotion. Lyon are unbeaten thus far and have won 6 on the spin. Since an encouraging start to their away campaign with a win and a draw its been all downhill since for Jean-Marc Furlan’s charges but a 2-1 home win last time out against Rennes suggests improvement. Lyon will be without left back Eric Abidal who was injured in Frances friendly
in Martinique. Even so, they should be too strong and could win with -2.

Lyon 10/10 @ 1.28 betfair

[davidmphill]

Strasbourg v Nice

A lot of draws in this fixture over the years but I believe Nice can overcome the history and gain a much needed rare away win at Strasbourg. Strasbourg are struggling like hell for goals and have scored just 5 all campaign. Rumours are that ex France international Marcel Desailly is being lined up to replace under fire Jacky Duguépéroux. Strasbourg havent won all season and have lost 4 on the spin. Nice are doing ok, they need to improve to move up the table, they're the only side to win at PSG and that result suggests they on their day are a decent side as they had to come from 1 down after a minute.

Nice 3/10 @ 3.8 betfair

[meatman]

ok then it should be a decent weekend of action, here are my predicted correct scores.

Monaco 0-0 St Etienne
Marseille 2-1 Nantes
Strasbourg 0-0 Nice
Ajaccio 1-0 Sochaux
Auxerre 2-0 Lille
Nancy 2-0 Le Mans
Lyon 2-1 Troyes
Lens 1-0 Metz
Rennes 1-0 Toulouse
Bordeaux 1-0 PSG

I don't expect many goals and maybe im going a bit over the top with amount of home wins and 1-0s - but then again everyone knows I love a good old 1-0.


Best bet of the weekend - Marseille @ 1.80

Best Value of the weekend - Auxerre @ 2.30

meatman double - Lens and Lyon @ 1.95

meatman under 2.5 goals accumulator - in Lens, Ajaccio, Monaco, Strasbourg @ 5.40 Stanjames 3/10


good luck everyone

[meatman]

so anyone else want to have a dabble at predicting the correct scores? come on don't be shy

[qwertyx]

Let me try
Monaco 1-1 St Etienne
Marseille 2-0 Nantes
Strasbourg 0-1 Nice
Ajaccio 1-2 Sochaux
Auxerre 0-0 Lille
Nancy 2-1 Le Mans
Lyon 3-1 Troyes
Lens 0-0 Metz
Rennes 2-1 Toulouse
Bordeaux 1-0 PSG

[meatman]

nice one qwerty, good man - anyone else?

[meatman]

OK then so far 6 of us have gone for our CS predictions - here is a table on overall selections of outcomes

Match	H	X	A
Monaco v St Etienne	2	3	1
Marseille v Nantes	6	0	0
Strasbourg v Nice	0	4	2
Ajaccio v Sochaux	3	2	1
Auxerre v Lille	3	3	0
Nancy v Le Mans	4	0	2
Lyon v Troyes	6	0	0
Lens v Metz	4	2	0
Rennes v Toulouse	5	1	0
Bordeaux v PSG	4	1	1

Most agreed outcomes

Lyon win 6/6
Marseille win 6/6
Rennes win 5/6
Lens win 4/6
Nancy win 4/6
Bordeaux win 4/6
Strasbourg - Nice draw 4/6

most common predicted CS

Marseille 2-1 Nantes 5/6
Bordeaux 1-0 PSG 4/6
Strasbourg 0-0 Nice 3/6


so Marseille 2-1 Nantes is the PL members gamble of the day @ 10.0 Betfair, get on that CS everyone!!

[Adri]

Strasbourg - Nice



I put my money on a Strasbourg home win for statistical reasons.



-Strasbourg didn’t win for 14 games in a row: It only happened once in the last 5 seasons of Ligue 1 that a team couldn’t win for more than 14 times in a row. ( Istres last season)

-A team in Ligue 1 wins a minimum of 5 home games over one season. Statistics of the last 5 seasons tell us so. With PSG, Lille, Marseille still to come, Strasbourg has 12 homegames to do so. ( 0-3-4 so far)

-The away record of Nice 2-3-1 is way to favorable for a team of their quality. (04/05: 3-6-10, 03/04:3-10-6, 02/03: 3-9-7)

-It happens, but teams in Ligue 1 usually never lose 5 games in a row, Strasbourg lost the last 4.

-Last 11 years, we saw 7 confrontations between the 2 teams in La Meinau, record: 4-3-0



Strasbourg isn’t as bad as their results would suggest. Their record in Europe is a proof of this. So they lost Niang to Marseille, they still have a fairly decent squad. Unless you count Pagis there are no real goalscorers in this team, but I think that tonight is the night. They’ll score from a corner, a penalty, free kick if needed.



Prediction: a win for Strasbourg by a small margin or if Strasbourg wants to continue to ridicule statistics a low score draw.

[meatman]

Originally Posted by meatman

Marseille v Nantes

Marseille suffered humiliation in their last Ligue 1 match as they were hammered 0-3 away at newly promoted Le Mans. This was a terrible result for Jean Fernandez’ team and totally unexpected. The international break probably did them good and I expect them to hit back here against Nantes. Marseille have real quality in midfielder Franck Ribery and this man can win them the game on his own. They will be confident of claiming success here at Le Stade Velodrome.

Marseille have been pretty impressive at home all season. They have lost just once and have won ¾ recent games. Against Nantes they know that they face weak travellers. Les Canaris have lost their last 4 away games and they have now gone more than 360 minutes without a goal on the road. They miss key midfielder Jeremy Toulalan for this match and he will be a big loss for them. However Marseille have kept just 1 home clean sheet all season so there’s every chance that Nantes can get on the score sheet here. But I expect the home team to have a bit too much for them and I can see a 2-1 scoreline here. Maresille not a bad bet here IMO.

Bet
Marseille 1.80 Betfair 7/10
CS 2-1 10.0 Betfair


Monaco v St Etienne

This is a match which I expect to be tight and have few goals in it. Monaco have hit back recently at home and have won their last 2 at Le Stade Louis II 3-0 against Metz and Ajaccio. However they are both teams which have been in pretty poor form and St Etienne will be a much tougher test. Les verts have lost just once away from home all season and they continue to look very solid. They are very hard to break down and Monaco will find it tough to score goals here. I don’t know what the score will be but I reckon under 2.5 goals will be a good bet.

Monaco have scored just 1 first half goal all season so I expect the first period to be very tight. if the scoreline remains 0-0 at HT then I cannot see how many goals will be scored. Either team may nick this one but either way I think under 2.5 will happen. 0-0 CS could well be worth a shot here as well.

Bet
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 Betfair 7/10
CS 0-0 8.60 Betfair 1/10

FT Monaco 1-0 SE
Marseille 2-1 Nantes

[meatman]

Adri GL on Strasbourg

[meatman]

Originally Posted by meatman

most common predicted CS

Marseille 2-1 Nantes 5/6
Bordeaux 1-0 PSG 4/6
Strasbourg 0-0 Nice 3/6


so Marseille 2-1 Nantes is the PL members gamble of the day @ 10.0 Betfair, get on that CS everyone!!

just shows how good the punters are on here, all of us go for Marseille and 5/6 CS 2-1 hope many cashed in

Adythom and Icky currently 100% success rate

[meatman]

Originally Posted by meatman

Best bet of the weekend - Marseille @ 1.80

Best Value of the weekend - Auxerre @ 2.30

meatman double - Lens and Lyon @ 1.95

meatman under 2.5 goals accumulator - in Lens, Ajaccio, Monaco, Strasbourg @ 5.40 Stanjames 3/10


good luck everyone

great night for me in Le championnat, in total +37 points,

just Lens that let me down in that double with Lyon. Sochaux claim a surprise 1-0 win at Ajaccio bt apart from that it was pretty straightforward.

even under 2.5 goals accumulator came in

[Ruben]

Originally Posted by Ruben

Auxerre-Lille
Pick: Auxerre -0,5
Odds: 2,18
Estimation: 52%
Bookie: Pointbet
Stake: 6/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

Auxerre won 3-2, bet won

Originally Posted by Ruben

Monaco-St.Etienne
Pick: Monaco -0,5
Odds: 2,05
Estimation: 59%
Bookie: Nordicbet
Stake: 7-8/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

Monaco won 1-0, bet won

Originally Posted by Ruben

Ajaccio-Sochaux
Pick: Under 2,25
Odds: 1,75
Estimation: 63%
Bookie: Pointbet
Stake: 5/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

Sochaux won 0-1, bet won

So, all bets won