France - Le Championnat (19-20 Nov 05)

[meatman]

Saturday 19 November 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Monaco v St Etienne (16:00 GMT)	2.06	3.20	4.40	103%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Marseille v Nantes (16:15 GMT)	1.85	3.20	6.00	102%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/UnderTotal Goal MinutesTotal Goals
Ajaccio v Sochaux (19:00 GMT)	2.22	3.00	3.75	106%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Auxerre v Lille (19:00 GMT)	2.12	3.05	4.10	105%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Lens v Metz (19:00 GMT)	1.53	3.65	8.20	105%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Lyon v Troyes (19:00 GMT)	1.28	5.50	17.50	102%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Nancy v Le Mans (19:00 GMT)	2.20	3.05	4.10	103%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Strasbourg v Nice (19:00 GMT)	2.62	3.00	3.50	100%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/Under
Sunday 20 November 2005
	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
Rennes v Toulouse (17:00 GMT)	1.83	3.30	5.40	104%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/UnderTotal Goal MinutesTotal Goals
Bordeaux v Paris St-G (19:45 GMT)	2.20	3.00	3.60	107%	Related markets...Match ResultMatch ResultAsian HandicapHalf-time/Full-time- - -Correct ScoreDouble ChanceDraw No BetFirst Goal TimeFirst Team to ScoreHalf with Most GoalsHalf-time Correct ScoreHalf-time ResultHandicap ResultLast Team to ScoreOdd or Even TotalOver/UnderTotal Goal MinutesTotal Goals

[adythom]

they look like very generous odds for nice?
even all the funny results in france of late-[I wonder if they're riot related?] shouldn't stop nice grabbing a 0-0 at least? nice have only lost once away this season-and strasbourg have yet to win at home!
2.62 sounds a tastey lay price to me? any thoughts meatman?

does anyone fancy;
bordeaux 1-0,2-0 v psg
lyon 1-0,2-0 v troyes -does 3-0 sound closer here?
auxerre 1-0,2-0 v lille aswell maybe? though some may fancy the draw here!

I love these CS's in france - based just on recent stats though!
will check channel4's french footy site for big news first!

[meatman]

Strasbourg are going to win soon IMO, it could come against Nice, but im not sure about this one yet.

Lyon - well they could hammer Troyes to be honest

Bordeaux - 1-0 very possible against PSG - but 0-0 and 1-1 also likely

Auxerre 1-0 for me against Lille


I'll post my preveiws up late Friday night probably

GL Ady

[davidmphill]

Initial thoughts for France this weekend are as follows:
Lens look good for a home win this weekend seeing as struggling Metz are in town! Lens are unbeaten at home 3-3-0 where as Metz have yet to register a win away from home 0-2-5.
Lyon are far too obvious to miss out, look good to add to a accy.5-1-0 home record and the best side by far in France where as Troyes are struggling to life in the top league and have an away record of 1-1-5.
Strasbourg are rock bottom and winless and this gives an oppurtunity for Nice to register their 3rd win on the road. Strasbourg's only wins have been in Europe thus far and Nice have a decent record on the road and look good value for an away win.
More in depth analysis nearer the time folks.

[Thierry]

This weekend les vets travel to monaco where we will face a tough game. normally I would reccomaend you back us to win but I doubt that we will here. if we win it will be 1-0 and we will aim for a clean sheets here. I predict that the match will end 0-0, we have not had 0-0 for a while now so its is time we had one, it would be good result for us. hopefully we win but I tip the draw

elsewhere i tihkn the Lyon - Lens double looks very good as does Auxerre straight win

these are my predicted scorelines this weekend

Monaco 0-0 St Etienne
Marseille 2-1 Nantes
Strasbourg 0-0 Nice
Ajaccio 1-1 Sochaux
Auxerre 2-0 Lille
Nancy 1-2 Le Mans
Lyon 5-0 Troyes
Lens 3-0 Metz
Rennes 1-0 Toulouse
Bordeaux 1-0 PSG

bon chance

[meatman]

you've gone for the predicted scores again eh Thierry, I seem to remeber last week in Ligue 2 you predicted 0/10 CS and I predicted 3/10 - although you predicted many final outcomes correctly

Ill post my predictions later in the week, maybe this week you will beat me on CS

anyone else care to predice all the scores -david? Adythom? others maybe as well?

[davidmphill]

Originally Posted by meatman

you've gone for the predicted scores again eh Thierry, I seem to remeber last week in Ligue 2 you predicted 0/10 CS and I predicted 3/10 - although you predicted many final outcomes correctly

Ill post my predictions later in the week, maybe this week you will beat me on CS

anyone else care to predice all the scores -david? Adythom? others maybe as well?

No probs, I'll have a crack at themlater when I get home from work.

[adythom]

normally I would cover every game with two [sometimes even three] picks!
but if you're throwing down a gauntlet mr.meatman!- I'll step up and make a fool of myself! I'll add my second choice scorelines in brackets for added interest;

ajaccio 1-0 sochaux [0-0]
auxerre 1-0 lille [2-0]
lens 2-0 metz [3-0]
lyon 2-0 troyes [3-0]
marseille 2-1 nantes [3-1]
monaco 1-0 st.etienne [2-0]
nancy 0-1 le mans [0-0]
strasbourg 0-0 nice [0-1]
bordeaux 1-0 psg [2-0]
rennes 1-1 toulouse [1-0]

one or two wild punts in there!- auxerre,strasbourg and bordeaux results will be bet on! maybe lens and monaco? the wild variations in lyons scores has scared me off them this week-and there's every chance troyes could score here aswell- given lyons recent performance against lowly ajaccio!
lille in CL makes me suggest 2-0 second score,though the low or no score draw is also very likely!

thanks and GL all

[meatman]

aye well it seems we can get something going here

1 point for correct outcome
2 points for correct goal difference
3 points for exact correct score

anyone else?

[PompeyPunt]

Auxerre v Lille

Auxerre go into this game in good form especially at home, with 5 wins from their 6 ligue 1 matches so far on theirhome turf. In the last two, they got a good draw away to St Etienne, and the game before that, a cracking win at home to PSG. Their only home loss to far was a 2-0 home defeat to Lyon, which with their form so far is certainly no disgrace. Auxerre usually build a season around good home form, and this one is no different. Lille are no mugs on the road, and have drawn 4 of their 6, but i feel that Auxerre are strong enough here to produce the victory, probably 1 or maybe 2-0. betdaq have 2.26 trading, which IMO is a cracking price.

Lens v Metz

Lens are at home to lowly Metz, and anything but a home win would be a suprise here, and this is a great chance for Lens to end their drawing streak, which continued at Ajaccio in the week. To say Metz are a soft touch is abit of an understatement, especially on the road, and with 5 losses from 7, can anyone see this improving? i certainly can't. 2.12 for the -1 handicap is trading at betdaq, and although no gift, very attractive odds.

Picks

Auxerre (2.26) 7/10
Lens -1 (2.12) 7/10

[davidmphill]

Weekend scorecasts:

Monaco 0-1 St Etienne
Marseille 2-1 Nantes
Strasbourg 1-2 Nice
Ajaccio 2-0 Sochaux
Auxerre 1-1 Lille
Nancy 2-0 Le Mans
Lyon 4-0 Troyes
Lens 2-0 Metz
Rennes 2-1 Toulouse
Bordeaux 0-1 PSG

[Ruben]

1-x-2 52% - 30% - 18%
o/u2,5 37% - 63%

Pick: Auxerre -0,5
Odds: 2,18
Estimation: 52%
Bookie: Pointbet
Stake: 6/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

Firstly, Lille and Auxerre are very equal teams. In the league table both teams have 23 points. Secondly, Auxerre are very strong home team. In this season Auxerre have won 5 out of 6 home matches, only Lyon have managed to win them at Abbé-Deschamps. Auxerre's goal difference at home is 11-2 and Lyon are the only team who have scored against Auxerre. At last season Auxerre were also very good home team by losing only twice at home.

On the other hand Lille have won just once at away during this season (they won Metz 2-0). Besides Lille will play against Benfica on Tuesday, only few days after this match. I'm sure that the match against Benfica is much more important than this one. If they beat Benfica, they will be at least third in their group, which means Uefa-cup spot.

To sum up: Equal teams, strong home advantage, Lille have very important match only few days after this (their concetration might not be perfect). In my opinion Auxerre are really worth of bet.

[Ruben]

Monaco-St.Etienne

1-x-2 59% - 28% - 13%
o/u2,5 38% - 62%

Pick: Monaco -0,5
Odds: 2,05
Estimation: 59%
Bookie: Nordicbet
Stake: 7-8/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

I really don't understand these odds. Although St.Etienne are higher in the league table, I find Monaco clearly better team. Monaco had pretty poor start for the season and therefore Deschamps had to go. With new coach, Guidolin, Monaco have won both its home games. Both matches ended with 3-0 and now it seems that Monaco are again fighting for the UCL spots (Lyon have already won the league ). Currently I rate Monaco the second best team in the league, while St.Etienne are 6th in my ranking.

In spite of the fact that Monaco will play against Hamburg SV next Thursday, I find Monaco clear favourites here. In my opinion bookers are overvaluating St.Etienne and underestimating Monaco.

[Ruben]

Ajaccio-Sochaux

1-x-2 43% - 33% - 24%
o/u2,5 31% - 69%

Pick: Under 2,25
Odds: 1,75
Estimation: 63%
Bookie: Pointbet
Stake: 5/10 (3/10 is ‘normal’)

First of all, Ajaccio have played 11/14 under 2,5, while Sochaux's matches 10/14 have ended with under 2,5. Ajaccio have scored only two goals in their last 8 games. Also Sochaux have had difficulties to score goals. During the season Sochaux have found the net only 8 times in 14 matches (0.57 goals per game). In addition their top scorer, Ilan, injured on Monday and he'll be out until mid-December. Ilan has scored 5 out of 8 Sochaux's league goals so his injury is naturally a major hit for them.

[icky]

Hi there. I decided to try to predict some results as its interesting how will it go.

Monaco - St. Etienne 1-0
Marseille - Nantes 2-1
Ajaccio - Sochaux 0-0 (or 1-2)
Auxerre - Lille 1-1
Lens - Metz 1-1
Lyon - Troyes 2-1
Nancy - LeMans 2-1
Strasbourg - Nice 1-1
Rennes - Toulouse 2-0
Bordeaux - PSG 1-1

[adythom]

excellent info there ruben!
sounds like ajaccio are heading for another 0-0, as far as I can tell they've only scored and conceeded 4 at home this season! which sounds bad enough but -[get this!]- one of those home games finished 3-3! against lille! <2.5gls @1.75 looks more than generous ruben!
the pressure for a home win must surely be mounting though! if they beat sochaux they go above them and out of the relegation places!-could this mean that a must not lose attitude must now become a must win attitude?
I don't know enough about ajaccio's football tactics,I'm assuming they play very defencively -but if there is a new gameplan and they try and attack for once!- then all this seasons previous stats don't mean much!
just thought it might provoke a little dialogue- what do you think ruben? or anyone?

[adythom]

thanks for joining in icky!
your lens v metz result will surprise some

[meatman]

Monaco v St Etienne

This is a match which I expect to be tight and have few goals in it. Monaco have hit back recently at home and have won their last 2 at Le Stade Louis II 3-0 against Metz and Ajaccio. However they are both teams which have been in pretty poor form and St Etienne will be a much tougher test. Les verts have lost just once away from home all season and they continue to look very solid. They are very hard to break down and Monaco will find it tough to score goals here. I don’t know what the score will be but I reckon under 2.5 goals will be a good bet.

Monaco have scored just 1 first half goal all season so I expect the first period to be very tight. if the scoreline remains 0-0 at HT then I cannot see how many goals will be scored. Either team may nick this one but either way I think under 2.5 will happen. 0-0 CS could well be worth a shot here as well.

Bet
Under 2.5 goals 1.62 Betfair 7/10
CS 0-0 8.60 Betfair 1/10

[meatman]

Marseille v Nantes

Marseille suffered humiliation in their last Ligue 1 match as they were hammered 0-3 away at newly promoted Le Mans. This was a terrible result for Jean Fernandez’ team and totally unexpected. The international break probably did them good and I expect them to hit back here against Nantes. Marseille have real quality in midfielder Franck Ribery and this man can win them the game on his own. They will be confident of claiming success here at Le Stade Velodrome.

Marseille have been pretty impressive at home all season. They have lost just once and have won ¾ recent games. Against Nantes they know that they face weak travellers. Les Canaris have lost their last 4 away games and they have now gone more than 360 minutes without a goal on the road. They miss key midfielder Jeremy Toulalan for this match and he will be a big loss for them. However Marseille have kept just 1 home clean sheet all season so there’s every chance that Nantes can get on the score sheet here. But I expect the home team to have a bit too much for them and I can see a 2-1 scoreline here. Maresille not a bad bet here IMO.

Bet
Marseille 1.80 Betfair 7/10
CS 2-1 10.0 Betfair