Finnish Veikkausliiga 23-24/6

Both games over. 3-0 and 0-3 hence making the odds taken worthwhile because they won.

Of course you sometimes get odds so low its not worthwhile but better to trust your judgement and back at lower odds than you hoped or take what appears to be big odds on a pick you dont fancy at all.

Wrong again. A result can not make the odds playable in hindsight. I played Inter game UNDER and Haka game OVER because both bets were worth taking. The result can not change my decision and does not change the fact that both bets were playable. I had one loss and one win at odds around 2, and so the O/U's brought neither profit or loss today. That's betting for ya. Had I taken the Haka OVER at un-playable odds (like 1.8) I would have been in loss. I took it because it was playable, like the Inter UNDER, and therefore today's O/U bets didn't cost me anything even if one of them lost.

You still can't see the point?

FFS no offence but I am right. I bet OVER. It was OVER. I won.......

Thats the end of it.

[cluelessG]

Yep, both games over. But, deancreus, it doesn't mean you should take whatever odds bookies may offer you just because you feel "the match is going to end this way".
If you want corrective measures, you just make a thorough analysis of you odds-calculation method. Perhaps your probabilities were wrong - say, you calculated 50% probability for home win, odds offered 1.95, so you skipped this bet, it finished 6:0. Say, it happens several times over a month. It obvously means your correct estimation of the probability should have been bigger (60% or whatever) and you should have taken the 1.95 odds.
But don't take odds below your calculated probability - if you do it, why do you try to calculate probability at all?

The fact is I dont work out these fancy stats. I look at the info and both teams form etc and if the odds look tempting I do it.

Thats what I did today and it won so I dont need people telling me Im right or wrong. Thats how I do it and it works for me

Deancreus you must be a bookie's dream.
You're saying you don't really care if there is any value in the odds (and value means the bookie's odds are greater than the actual probability of winning), that you'll just place the bet anyway. And then when you win you think you were right all along. Do you understand the term VALUE???

Whenever I think about placing a bet now I ask myself one simple question:
If I was to place bets like this in the long term am I likely to make a profit?
And if I am simply placing a bet because I like it, without having done any research then obviously, I most likely will not win in the long term as the bookies will always be that step ahead of me.
But if I see a bookie giving a way higher price than another on an event and on checking out the stats they seem to have got it wrong, then yes I should win in the long term betting like that.
Another example is when an event is so over-hyped (usually on an exchange) such as Northern Ireland v Norway a fewq months back when it looked like they would beat the world record for not scoring, punters were backing under 2.5 at ridiculously low odds, meaning I saw definite value on over 2.5 and sure enough it ended 1-4. The diference in world rankings between the teams along with other stats showed me that I would win in the long run placing bets like that.

[Rumlesen]

Hey Irish TW
I do understand what value is, but what i dont understand is the actual probability. I presume that you put some percents on every outcome of a game, and then calculate the probability. But where does that percent come from? What i am saying is, the bookies must put some percent on the outcome to, but who says that your percent is more true than theirs. This is just a simple question, as i feel it is a bit diffecult to see if a team got 50 or 60% chance of winning.
Hope you understand my question

Rumlesen: Your comment is spot on. It all boils down to producing probability estimates that are more close to reality than those used by the bookies. In the long run, mind you.

This is not as hard as it first may seem. Remember that the bookies will slash the odds of heavily bet-on favourites to avoid huge losses (since the masses generally bet blindly on the favourites). Look at Real Madrid at the end of the season. They lost the last 5 games, but even after two consecutive losses the odds were ridiculously low, since people continued to bet on them. Punters chasing value could exploit this and lay Real (or back the underdog) with very valuable odds. Don't think the bookies didn't know what the "true" probabilities for Real Madrid were, but since people continued to bet on them (using arguments like "they can't lose 3 in a row", "they can't lose 4 in a row", etc) the bookies continued to give Real under-odds. They cashed in big and so did the punters chasing value. Who lost then? Answer: The mug punters betting blindly on the favourite. In fact, some people seem to believe that low favourite odds are some kind of "insurance" that guarantees a high probability for a win. Those punters feed the bookies, and create value odds on the underdogs. Those odds can be exploited by you and me, if we have good estimates of the real probabilities involved.

Bugser

[Rumlesen]

Thanks for your answer Bugser. In the Real Madrid case i follow you all the way, and offcause the bookies can get the percent right here, as it is one of the most followed leagues in the world. Where i feel i have a little edge over the bookies is on team news in danish lower divisions, it is easy to get for me, but i dont think the bookies use it. This weekend i backed Kolding in the 2 division heavely because i knew Hjørring would rest 5 key players, but i never thaught of any percent, just that Kolding must have had a stand out chance because of that. But there are many ways off being a punter, my weay is team news mostly, and form, but maybe is should try and add some probabillety to it.

Sorry I'm only getting to reply now Rumlesen

I presume that you put some percents on every outcome of a game

No, I don't, I know some people like BP here, use their own ratings but who's to say if the ratings are accurate? It's still all a matter of opinion as to what are the important factors and which are not in predicting the outcome.

But where does that percent come from? What i am saying is, the bookies must put some percent on the outcome to, but who says that your percent is more true than theirs.

Well that's all a matter of opinion but like Bugser (excellent post btw ) said, if you are betting blindly on a favourite, then you well know that you are not going to win in the long run. Very often I consider what are the most punters likely to be betting on and how this is affecting the price.

The bottom line is: Am I getting value?
This is the very same as saying like I did above: Will I win in the long term betting like this?

Sorry that I can't explain any better. I don't use any magical formulas or stats, I just use my head and since I started using it I haven't done too bad.

[Rumlesen]

Good answer Irish, my doubts was only how to decide the right percent. But i can see it is not fare from the way i bet, i just regard team news as vital, especially in the lower danish leagues, as a couple of injurys and suspension will hurt the teams. Thanks for your answer both Bugser and Irish