Finnish Veikkausliga 20/06

Bet365:
20 Jun-16:30 Allianssi v FC Hameenlina 1.36 4.00 7.00
20 Jun-16:30 FC Haka v TPS 1.60 3.60 4.50
20 Jun-16:30 FC Lahti v HJK Helsinki 3.00 3.20 2.10
20 Jun-16:30 KooTeePee v TP-47 2.00 3.20 3.20
20 Jun-16:30 RoPS v FC Jazz 2.40 3.20 2.50

The floor is yours Bet Pope .

*nods at heniek31*

Alrighty, 1st part of the previews.

RoPS – FC Jazz: 42% - 30% - 28%
A classic “6 pointer” at Rovaniemi where two bottom table teams RoPS and Jazz try to grab for the 3 points. RoPS have started this season poo and they’re yet to get even 1 point at home when Jazz have lost all of their away games. Nothing new in the record of Jazz but I’d have expected better display from RoPS at the home games. When you look at the percentages you see I consider RoPS pretty much as strong side as Jazz at the moment, they’d be a bit smaller favourites (38-39) but Jazz are missing 2 starting eleven defenders (Luoma, Rantanen) due suspension & flu which is a big blow. Like said earlier the roster of Jazz is very thin and every absense is bad. They get their best player Piracaia back to this game from suspension. RoPS on the other hand are first time this season in a situation where they have no injury worries. The new goalie Wallen did not have many chances against KooTeePee because of the team defence which sucked hairy monkey balls again. But I expect RoPS to be much stronger here. The draw percentage is up to 30% because draw is what both teams must be happy with, especially visitors. RoPS can’t afford to lose this and they’ve had a small break now to get their defence and game systems better. RoPS qualified for the next round against a lower division team in the finnish Cup, FC Jazz gave rest to all of their starting eleven teams and lost to first division PP70.
Best pick with the odds of bet365: home win (2.40 given, 2.38 required)


KooTeePee – TP47: 49% - 27% - 24%
KooTeePee get another “should win” home game in a row when TP47 pay a visit to “Arto Tolsa Arena”. KooTeePee run over RoPS like expected in their previous game but TP47 will be a bit harder nut to crack – they know how to defend and have a record of 0-3-1 from their away games so far. They’ve had tough opponents at away so far: Haka, HJK, Lahti, Jazz and only 1 loss from those games is a very good result. Both visitors and home team have had a nice start so far and KooTeePee have surprised even more with very fresh and strong displays, especially on their home ground. They are ~50% favourites here but not bigger – Kotka are only a lower (mid)table team and TP47 can make their life miserable. Both teams have no significant injury worries for this game and I wouldn’t be surprised of any result here. I expect KooTeePee to play their physical game again and TP47 to aim for the draw. Both teams had a Cup game at midweek and they qualified for the next round against lower division opponents. TP47 have not travelled back to north in the meanwhile but stayed in southern Finland to avoid too much travelling.
Best pick with the odds of bet365: home win (2.00 given, 2.04 required)

FC Lahti – HJK: 30% - 30% - 40%
Very interesting match where two ”draw pumps” Lahti & HJK face each other – what makes this interesting is the absence of Alexei Eremenko jr from the squad of HJK. The lad is the best player in Veikkausliiga (if someone didn’t know that already) and he’s suspended now. It’s very interesting to see how HJK will cope with the loss because Eremenko is the heart and soul of the attack of HJK and he’ll be leaving to Spartak Moscow soon. After a four weeks or something if I remember correctly. HJK have had many important men missing the whole season which is one of the reasons they’ve a) conceded too much goals and b) because of the previous issue had too many draws (record 3-6-1 now). HJK would be ~45% favourite here at least if the team would have their best men on the field but still practically half a dozen lads out: Rami Hakanpää, Mike Peltola, Antti Heinola and Aarno Turpeinen (= they all are defensive players) are injured definitely. Eremenko suspended and forwards (replacements for Eremenko) Zeneli and Vili Savolainen are doubts. Even with all those men out HJK are still a tough team but it won’t be easy against FC Lahti who’re playing well at the moment and got no home loss so far. The draw percentage is high and I think both teams would be happy to draw the game. The star player of FC Lahti, Jari Litmanen (Yes he is ex Ajax, ex Liverpool player) is a doubt again.
Best pick with the odds of bet365: draw (3.20 given, 3.33 required)

BP

Previews, part 2

FC Haka – TPS: 60% - 25% - 15%
No question about the favourite team here when top class Haka gets visitors from Turku. Haka have been a very solid team lately: lost none of the last 6 games with goal difference 9-3 and got 3 wins in a row now. In the last home game they beat FC Lahti 2-0 and TPS should be a bit easier opponent – but a midtable team anyway so this is not “top vs bottom” match. Both teams had a Cup game in the midweek and qualified – TPS faced Tampere Utd at home and had a bit surprising 1-0 win at overtime when Haka dropped a lower division team easily. Haka should have no fresh injury worries here, their only absences are long term men Juha Pasoja and Lasse Karjalainen but those lads have been out few weeks already = no meaning. TPS have had some important men out lately but they rested some players in the Cup game and the youngster Kasper Hämäläinen should be only player out from the starting eleven in this match. I expect Haka to continue their strong home displays and TPS to be in troubles here – TPS have never been a good away team and they haven’t won Haka since 1998 at home or away. Maybe the game system and team composition of TPS (young players, strong trying and not that skillfull or experienced than the players of Haka) does not overly fit against very experienced and tough players like Haka have.
Best pick with the odds of bet365: home win (1.60 given, 1.67 required)

AC Allianssi – FC Hämenelinna: 69% - 20% - 11%
The biggest favourite of the round are Allianssi who are close to 70% favourites in this match. It would not be wrong to give them a bit more, like 70-72% but this is where I ended. Allianssi got a cracking home record so far: 4-0-0 and goal difference 7-0 but there’s one note to be made: 3 of the wins have been as tight as possible = 1-0, so the record lies a bit. But nevertheless Allianssi are a top team and not much behind HJK and Haka, maybe as strong as Tampere United. They’ve had big expectations in the past seasons too but finally the big defence problem seems to be solved and the team has started to grab comfortable away wins too. In the past seasons Allianssi conceded too many goals, especially away, which kept them away from the top spots of the league. Both teams qualified to the next round at Cup in the midweek against lower division teams, and the cup win was first to the new coach of Hämeenlinna. He was especially delighted of the tight defensive play and that’s the only chance of Hämeelinna against very strong Allianssi. Neither of the teams don’t have any significant injuries, couple of long terms but nothing you should be worried about. This is pretty much a match like Newcastle – Wolverhampton in the Premiership, the strength gap is huge but 1-1 was the result in the Premiership corresponding too so there is no such thing as a 100% secure win.
Best pick with the odds of bet365: home win (1.36 given, roughly 1.40 required)

BP

[cluelessG]

Another monster of a preview from Bet Pope
What do you think about the Under 2.5 in Lahti v HJK?
1.88 currently available at Betfair, probably a bit low but I hope higher odds will be offered today.

cluelessG: It was 1.77 now but yet worth picking, because the percentages are so high. Overly there were nothing interesting in 1x2 bets so I won't advice you to play anything except O/U bets. The european champs have included nothing but Over 2.5 bets to every game due people placing too much Under bets, but finally I can play Under again Very good offers to these games:

FC HAKA - TPS: U2.5 (2.11), BETFAIR&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp (52%)
FC LAHTI - HJK: U2.5 (1.77), BETFAIR (59%)
ROPS - FC JAZZ: U2.5 (2.07), BETSSON (50%)
FC KOOTEEPEE - TP47: U2.5 (2.00), CENTREBET (52%)

Allianssi-Hämeenlinna was overly too well priced in O/U bets, nothing even close there.

So let's hope good Under-run continues and we can grab at least 3 of these under birds to home.

BP

Oh one thing: the reason I didn't pick RoPS is that I had false information. One of the most important defenders of Jazz, Vesa Rantanen, plays after all here. I took 2-3% away from Jazz because of him = this will make it even more underish game and RoPS not worth betting.

BP

[cluelessG]

Thanks for the reassurance about the under in Lahti - HJK. I took it at 1.77 (Fonbet). KooTeePee managed yet another home win and Allianssi did well - unlike Haka.

I won't say this was a good round because it wasn't :x

TPS would have been playable at Betfair and few other places with the odds like 6,30 but I was too shy to advice it. 1/4 unders came home but it was a bit unlucky because all those crashed unders ended in total goals of 3.

But this means one thing: next round under odds are even better and there's plenty'o'stupid money around Under 2.5 goals bets have been very profitable whole season and of course not every round is underish so I'm not worried. Just keep placing those best every time and I guarantee you'll end up winning money when the season is gone

RoPS are in great troubles now, the game against Jazz was a "deadmatch" and they were all over Jazz whole game but just could not score. Only 26 games total so soon half of the season is played already and they got 1 win. Doesn't look too good either for Hämeenlinna but they had a fresh play. Allianssi didn't get odds big enough imho and if you played it and won - you were lucky this time. Hämeenlinna were titled "The Latvia of Veikkausliiga" in that game and they had many great chances to get a draw there. This time Allianssi was better but after listening the game from radio I think even 65% would have been too much.

Next round at wednesday w/ 3 games, previews will come

BP