Copa Libertadores - It's all about the goals!!!

[3hree]

Quite a few fixtures tonight and i'm concentrating on the goal markets more than win/draw/win as certain aspects of this competition haunt be as being unbelievably unpredictable.

Unfortunately the markets have been upped and many of the bets are OVER 2.5/3, still good opportunity to make some mular!!

Libertad VS Paulista

Libertad look like sitting ducks, waiting for the surge of River Plate
A loss and win against Plate away and at home respectively, a poor 0-0 draw away in Paulista and a 1-1 away at Nacional puts Libertad unbeaten and top of the league. Scoring 7 and conceeding only 2 puts emphasis on a decent defence. Travelling 1290km to Paraguay for this game, emphasis is placed upon the ability to score against this solid Libertad defence for Paulista. Paulista are no mugs for conceeding with only 6 against in this stage of the competition. One point behind River they are still in contention and will give it their all tonight.
I expect a tightly fought game that does not reflect 8/13 odds on home win. This game will either be a tight low scoring draw or one of those games that go 1-0,1-1,2-1,2-2,3-2,3-3,3-4,3-5, etc etc. Opting for the UNDER in this game, given the price of 1.80, the bookies know what we're up to but am going for it anyway.
Small stakes on Under
1pt each on 3-2, 4-2, 4-1 Home Win and 2-3 in favour of away team.

Cienciano Vs Sao Paulo

Brazil to Peru this time the journey as S.P visit bottom of league Cienciano, conceeding 10 and scoring only 2 has put Cienciano in this position whereas S.P second, being pressed by Caracas FC. The pressure is on S.P here as they are expected to qualify year in, year out. All of S.P's games have gone Over 2.5 this year in Copa Libertadores, 3 of Cienciano's 4 doing the same.
I'm a big fan of the away win here as Cienciano have proved they have the power to half away attacking teams conceeding only 1 against Chivas and 1 against Caracas. However, EVENS for Sao Paulo looks a decent bet, definate bet on Over 2.5/3 goals though. 1.95 the price with Bet365
Over 2.5/3 goals - 1.95 - Medium Stakes
Away Win - 1/1 - Medium Stakes
C.S Cover - 1-1 - 2pt

El Nacional Vs River Plate

4 from 6 over this season for River as they visit Ecuador to a team that pushed them to the edge in a 4-3 victory back in March. This fixture proved to have goals last time and will follow suit this time around I believe. Not interested in the Match Markets other than goals as Plate are somewhat unpredictable at the moment!
Over 2.5/3 goals - 1.85

Estudiantes LP vs Bolivar

Group two game here, group is wide open with each team sitting on 7 points. I believe this stat gives the impudence with attacking play, not satisfied with a draw these teams will want to outdo one another here to take lead of a group. The chance of the other fixture in the group lying at a draw will given added emphasis on the importance of every game. Estudiantes, in my opnion, are not a 4/11 bet and i will be having small stakes on 6/1 Bolivar.
2pt Bolivar Win

Independiente Santa Fe Vs Sporting Cristal

Two teams from the same group as Bolivar and Estudiantes. Wide open group and so importance on attacking. Losing their last two, Independiente go into the game top with +1 goal, their visitors come with an amazing record of scored 10, conceeded 10. Every game of their have gone over, compared with only 4 of 7 going over for Independiente makes me consider a no bet. Given the odds on the home win here i'm going to go Over 2.5/3. Simply due to the amazing record of Sporting Cristal and the tight nature of the league as results have come in. Also going to go Sporting Cristal +1 OAH at 1.95
Over 2.5/3 Goals 1.90 High Stakes
Sporting Cristal +1 OAH 2pt
C.S Cover 2-0 1pt

12 Apr-23:30	Libertad v Paulista		8/13	12/5	7/2
13 Apr-01:45	Cienciano v Sao Paulo		2/1	9/4	1/1
13 Apr-01:45	El Nacional v River Plate		5/4	11/5	7/4
13 Apr-23:45	Estudiantes LP v Bolivar		4/11	3/1	6/1
13 Apr-23:45	Independiente Santa Fe v Sporting Cristal		2/5	11/4	11/2
14 Apr-02:00	Palmeiras v Cerro Porteno		4/9	11/4	5/1
14 Apr-02:00	Rosario Central v Atletico Nacional (Col)		4/5	9/4	11/4

[3hree]

Libertad VS Paulista

Libertad look like sitting ducks, waiting for the surge of River Plate
A loss and win against Plate away and at home respectively, a poor 0-0 draw away in Paulista and a 1-1 away at Nacional puts Libertad unbeaten and top of the league. Scoring 7 and conceeding only 2 puts emphasis on a decent defence. Travelling 1290km to Paraguay for this game, emphasis is placed upon the ability to score against this solid Libertad defence for Paulista. Paulista are no mugs for conceeding with only 6 against in this stage of the competition. One point behind River they are still in contention and will give it their all tonight.
I expect a tightly fought game that does not reflect 8/13 odds on home win. This game will either be a tight low scoring draw or one of those games that go 1-0,1-1,2-1,2-2,3-2,3-3,3-4,3-5, etc etc. Opting for the UNDER in this game, given the price of 1.80, the bookies know what we're up to but am going for it anyway.
Small stakes on Under
1pt each on 3-2, 4-2, 4-1 Home Win and 2-3 in favour of away team.

1-0 Libertad, Under comes in and covers all audacious C.S's as well as giving few ££ profit

[meatman]

nice stuff Johnny

why the name change btw?

[3hree]

Change gives the illusion of progress mate...
New betting strategies and staking plans in progress, starting quite well.
Cheers!
Plate go one down

S.P one up

All inside 25mins!!

[christo85efc]

get to bed jonny, its gone 2!!

Any significance in the name btw?

You love your libertadores dont ya...nice one for bringing a thread back!

[3hree]

HAHA, it's all about the Copa Lib mate!! Supposed to be revising now, gonna hit that Shaq in a minute. No significance really, either this or 5ive. :P
Good luck in the NHL

[meatman]

will we see a change of Avatar as well?

Liverpool or Man City maybe

[meatman]

jesus as soon as I say that he does change it lol

[3hree]

hahah, i was after using this one

http://www.showmetoronto.com/shezam/frog2.htm

but it failed to upload

[3hree]

new sig? oh yea

[christo85efc]

Revising?? Get out of here!! Night before job for me in May, haha!

GL mate..hope your bets come in..

[meatman]

aye that would have been a cracker

[3hree]

It certainly is all about the goals as both games enter the break at 2-0!
Sao Paulo's second guaranteeing a profit as 2-1 would see the Overs come in!
Hope some folks had a bit of a dabble

[3hree]

Originally Posted by christo85

Revising?? Get out of here!! Night before job for me in May, haha!

GL mate..hope your bets come in..

28th April til May 8th, then it's all about the party.

[christo85efc]

Originally Posted by 3hree

28th April til May 8th, then it's all about the party.

15th May - 17th May - then its all about the party....

[3hree]

How many you got? Makes me feel delighted that i've got mine spaced out over so many days, only have 4 but still.
More than a month til yours, less than two weeks til mine.
Soul destroying

[christo85efc]

Only got 2, but s**t loads of cwk to do at the moment!! Nightmare..

[ianm001]

Just wondering if anyone has any reasons why I shouldnt back Palmeiras and Santa Fe tonight? Quite fancy a double with those two tonight.

Thanks in advance guys!

[christo85efc]

I see no reason to be honest, home games are a huge advantage in this tournament IMO!

Would be interesting to hear the views of jonny though if hes about?

[ianm001]

Your right christo home games are a big advantage.

Palmeiras have qualified but I am sure that they would like to top the group and a win tonight will secure that spot.

On the other hand the Santa Fe group is wide open with all four sides all on 7 points so motivation is still very high there!