Brazil - Campeonato Paulista (19th - 22nd Jan)

[AJ]

Thursday 19 January 2006 Home Draw Away BPP Corinthians v Juventus (22:30 GMT) 1.26 7.00 13.00 102% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Paulista v Santos (22:30 GMT) 3.85 3.50 2.23 100% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Saturday 21 January 2006 Home Draw Away BPP São Paulo v São Caetano (18:00 GMT) 1.60 3.50 4.80 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Portuguesa Santista v Bragantino (19:00 GMT) 1.60 3.40 5.00 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Guarani v America (20:10 GMT) 1.40 4.00 6.50 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Sunday 22 January 2006 Home Draw Away BPP Santos v Marilia (18:00 GMT) 1.20 5.50 10.00 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Noroeste v Santo Andre (19:00 GMT) 1.65 3.35 4.75 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Paulista v Juventus (19:00 GMT) 1.55 3.70 5.00 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Rio Branco v Ituano (19:00 GMT) 1.90 3.25 3.50 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under Sao Bento v Ponte Preta (19:00 GMT) 2.35 3.25 2.60 112% Related markets...Match Result- - -Over/Under Portuguesa Desportos v Corinthians (20:10 GMT) 6.50 3.70 1.45 112% Related markets...Match ResultOver/Under

[AJ]

Full program this weekend, and I'm going to start off with a home win in tonights game for Corinthians, couple of reason for it, firstly they are a better team, and if they are to challenge for the title, this is a must win home game, secondly the Betfair price is 27% above the average of the main bookies, I think this imbalance means it's a bet at above fair odds.

I also fancy Santos in the other game, they will also challenge for the title, but it doesn't fit into my system, so i'll leave it

[meatman]

Is this a league that you follow quite closely Fools?

[AJ]

Did last season, made good profits on it.

This is only the second week of the new season, form is yet to be established so I'm keeping an eye on 4 of the big clubs. I'm looking at Corinthins, Sao Paulo, Palmeiras and Santos. Looking for them at home most weeks, you can think about these teams as being like Arsenal, Man Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool in this league, it's jsut a matter of keeping up on the team news and watching out for the banna skins. Between them they've won 8 of the last 10 championships.

You need to be aware of when players move to europe, it can have a big and sudden impact on a teams fortunes.

You'll get some good info here

http://www.sportpromotion.com.br/bra...hp?registro=20

[AJ]

looked like it was all going to go a bit wrong at the end, but it came through as a winner. Mark of a good team, grind out the win even when not playing well.

[meatman]

cant beat late goals

[AJ]

Three matches on Saturday

But lets start with a current league table

P	Clubes	PG	J	V	E	D	GP	GC	SG
1	Palmeiras	9	3	3	0	0	5	2	3
2	São Caetano	7	3	2	1	0	3	1	2
3	Corinthians	6	3	2	0	1	7	3	4
4	Paulista	6	3	2	0	1	6	4	2
5	Noroeste	6	3	2	0	1	4	3	1
6	Portuguesa Santista	6	3	2	0	1	7	7	0
7	Ponte Preta	4	3	1	1	1	4	3	1
8	Bragantino	4	2	1	1	0	2	1	1
9	Ituano	4	3	1	1	1	4	4	0
10	Santos	4	3	1	1	1	4	4	0
11	Rio Branco	4	3	1	1	1	3	3	0
12	Guarani	4	3	1	1	1	3	4	-1
13	Mogi Mirim	3	3	1	0	2	5	5	0
14	Juventus	3	2	1	0	1	4	4	0
15	Marília	3	3	1	0	2	4	5	-1
16	Portuguesa	3	3	1	0	2	4	5	-1
17	Santo André	3	3	1	0	2	2	4	-2
18	São Bento	1	3	0	1	2	3	5	-2
19	São Paulo	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1
20	América	0	3	0	0	3	4	10	-6

São Paulo v São Caetano

Now Sao Paulo are like the Liverpool or Manchester United of this league, they have the history and the fans and the money and are at home to Sao Caetano. SC are the hot new team in Brazil, 5 years ago no one had heard of them, they came from nowhere in the earky 2000's to make the brazil championship final from the second division. In 2004 they won the Paulista championship, think Watford under Taylor or Forest under Clough and you'll get the picture. Two wins and a draw in their first 3 games sees them second in the table. Both teams should be close to full strengh, and both have tight defenses. I see a tight game here, I can't find the Over / Under priced up anywhere, but I'd look for the under to be pretty safe.

1.6 for the home win is too low, 2X and unders are my pick, I may ask for 1.7 for the unders on Betfair and see if anyone bites, but no volume at all yet.

Portuguesa Santista v Bragantino
I don't follow any team, and haven't done any research on this game, no thoughts or picks from me there


Guarani v America

Guarani aren't a team that I'd normally back, they've made an average enough start to the saeson, with a win, a draw and a defeat. But in all honesty America must be opposed right now, they have made a rank awful start to the season, 3 defeats and shipped 10 goals in the process, I have a feeling they may turn out to be the NZ Knights of the Campeonato Paulista.

This is one of my major bets of the weekend 10/10 Guarani to win

[AJ]

Shock 0-1 result see's my bet go down.

[psilocybin]

Foolsgold, have you any idea how long this league has been running (number of seasons)?

[psilocybin]

What's the relationship between this league and the main one - Serie A?

[AJ]

It's a regional league, only for teams from the Sao Paulo area of brazil, this area has many of the top clubs, and 35% of the population of the country. This is the 104th season, it started in 1902

EDIT - All the regions in Brazil have their own state championship, the Brazil National league was only founded in '71. These leagues each play for half the season. The Paulista league is strongest. Pelé was the top scorer in the competition for nine years running but the likes of Sócrates, Rivelino, Careca, Raí, Roberto Carlos, Edmundo, Leonardo, Rivaldo and more recently Kaká have also graced the tournament with their array of skills.

[psilocybin]

Thanks man! Do you know anywhere you can get past results for this league?