NFL Wk. 9.

[TazaD]

Early I know...but wanted to get a couple of picks in before the lines change...

Arizona @ Tampa Bay over 37

League: 25-10-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 46.3) home 3+ fav, off a 1-3 SU loss as home 3+ fav. [TB]
17-4 over (Av. total 39.7...av. score 50.0!) if last game went over.
10-1 over (Av. total 39.3...av. score 51.4!) if last game went 10+ over.

The Bucs have seemingly been playing solid D, but really they've only limited teams that sttruggle to score anyway. They've allowed 20 to Seattle, 33 to Indi, 23 to Det and 24 to a 1/2 strength Jags this week.
They've been scoring well tho, av. a little under 20 ppg...now they face a Cards D that gives up over 22.5, and allowed less than 20 just once all season.
'Zona have scored 19+ in 5 of 7 and av. a 21 ppg. James running well, and the chance of late scores is always there with Warner throwing the ball about in no huddle.
Like it before it hits 37.5.

Pittsburgh -8.5

League: 2-11-2 (Av. loss 15.9) away 7+ dog, with more than 6 days rest, if opp is off an ats win as road fav. [Balt]
(0-1 2207. SF 15-33 NYG @ +9.5.
0-1 2006. GB 9-31 Philli @ +11.5)
0-6-1 (Av. loss 17.6) on a Monday Night. (inc. the GB v. Philli game last year)
...also 0-5 (Av. loss 14.0) if team won previous match-up by 7+ ats...

Baltimore have been horrible on the road. A small win @ a poor SF, and losses @ Cinci, Cleveland and Buffalo...THE bottom 3 for total defense...now travel to the number one D in the NFL.
They av. just 14 ppg away as it is...
Steelers allow 13 ppg, and just 6.3 @ home!!
They've won their 3 home games by 23, 21 & 21, and scored 21 + points in 6 of 7 games overall.
I just don't see how Baltimore score enough to keep this one close.

[TazaD]

Denver @ Detroit under 45.5

League: 2-16-1 under (Av. total 39.8...av. score 32.6) any team off a 7+ ats win as away dog with 34+ mins TOP, if opp is off a Monday Night game.
(0-0-1 2006. Balt 28-6 Oak @ 34)
0-9-1 under (Av. total 39.2...av. score 31.0) if opp last game went 10+ under.

A couple of things I like in this one...Denver's inability to score for one! Take out the Pittsburgh explosion (even then 7 came from a fumble recovery TD), they haven't scored over 20 in reg. all season, and av. just 17.
Add to that, Detroit have suddenly found themselves a running game with Jones as starter, which last week translated into ball and clock control.
Denver have very similar run D numbers to Chicago, so there's every chance it happens again this week.
Detroit with some long, sustained drives should keep the ball away from Denver, who generally don't score well anyway.
Despite Denver being 5-2 over on the season, they are just 2-5 this number, and I think it's too high.

GB @ KC under 38.5

League: 9-42 under (Av. total 40.3...av. score 33.9) home fav of 3 or less off a BYE. [KC]
(0-2 under 2007. NO 13-16 Caro @ 44. Det 23-16 TB @ 44)
1-12 under (Av. total 40.8...av. score 32.0) if opp was last away.
...and 0-6 under (Av. total 41.2...av. score 32.8) if opp is off OT.

A system that I just about follow blindly these days.
For some reason totals are consistantly inflated for small home favs off BYE's.
But, who scores in this one anyway?
Like last week, GB facing a solid pass D...KC 10th in yards allowed and y/pass (6.7), should be able to contain a pass happy Favre who has managed just 17 and 13 (in reg.) against two other good pass D's.
The Chief's haven't given up more than 20 all season as it is.
Packers D continues to be under-rated, allowed 16+ just twice @ 17.
Looks a lot of points to me.

Cleveland -1

League: 18-0 SU (Av. win 16.1!!) any team at home, off an ats win as away fav with <30 mins TOP, if total 44+ and the last game went over. [Cleveland]

Basically, this team down flat out score!! Sure, their D sucks butt, but they've been finding ways to get the job done with the ball.
It's hard to argue with their form...an opening day loss with a thousand turn-overs with Frye as the starter, a 17 point loss @ NE (which now looks pretty good...very good even considering it was 10 points before a very late fumble return)...only a small loss @ Oakland doesn't look great.
Seattle are 1-2 on the road, with only a win @ crappy SF...and take out their opening day home win, their other 3 wins have been against sides with a combined 4-18 record!! (Although admittedly Cleveland have had a decent schedule themselves!)
I dunno, maybe it's because I've got Anderson as my Fantasy QB ...but I'm starting to really like this Brownies team!!
I think they can do enough to get the W here.

SD @ Minni over 41

League: 19-6-1 over (Av. total 42.8...av. score 47.2) away fav, off a 10+ ats win as a 3+ fav, with <28 mins TOP. [SD]
9-0-1 over (Av. total 43.0...av. score 52.1!) if opp was last at home.

I've got a feeling that SD could just about hit this on their own. 35 points in the first half last week before really calling off the dogs...28 the week before with just 28 mins TOP, and 41 @ Denver...they are an offense capable of big plays and quick scoring...as such they are 6-1 over this number for the season!
Minni D showing signs that they aren't very good...dead last in passing yards allowed, and they've allowed 20+ in 5 of 7 games, despite playing only 1 team in the top 10 for scoring. (Dallas...SD are 9th)
SD score their 27+...and either Minni keep it close, or they score a late consolation TD to knock it over

That's it for now...I really like Buffalo to get the win, but will wait on the line...

[saintg1]

As with last week, the CBS and ESPN 'experts' agee on: Atlanta, Detroit, San Diego, NO, Washington, Arizona, Oakland & Pittsburgh.

Remember the CBS crew select based on the spread, ESPN s-up and I have only compared the top 2-3 piskers in each group (no point taking notice of an 'expert' with a losing record).

[TazaD]

Fred Taylor under 70.5 yards rushing.

Getting a bit hooked on these player props! Seem to be finding a decent one every week...

Not sure if this number is based on NO's perceived crappy defense, or the fact he figured to get lots of carries with Gray @ QB...but either way, I think it's too much.
6-16 v. Tenn (Tenn allow 3.4 y/rush)
16-56 v. Atl (4.3)
17-84 v. Denver (League's second worst @ 4.9)
16-51 v. KC (4.0)
6-90 v. Houston (4.6) ...but one was 76 yards!
11-55 v. Indi (4.1)
24-68 v. TB (3.9)

Surprisingly, NO have the 5th best run D @ just 3.6 ypc!!

They've allowed 41 yards to Gore (SF),
28 to Dunn (Atl)
35 Alexander (Sea)
59 Foster (Caro)
50 White (Tenn)
61 Williams (TB)
...and 118 to Addai way back in week one...but you'd have to think that Manning is a bit more of a passing threat than Gray

Every chance they stack the line here, so even if he gets 20+ carries, he will be largely ineffective...as seen by his 2.8 ypc av. last week.

[Valiant23]

Taza, I'm going to tell you and risk getting it wrong again but Taylor will be getting the full load if Jones Drew doesn't regain match fitness in time (he's ranked as Questionable on CBS...)
http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/teams/page/JAC


Washington Redskins(-3.5) @ New York Jets

Washington aren't a great team by any stretch of the imagination but they're giving up 3.5 points to a Jets team starting with a rookie QB who is likely to be missing one of his go to guys (Coles is Questionable). Washington are only just above NYJ in the offensive rankings but its on defence where the difference lies with Washington ranked 8th as opposed to NYJ's lowly 28th ranking. They also have to try and stop the run without Vilma and I don't think they will.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints(-3)

Jacksonville are notoriously one dimensional on offence so the question remains whether their under-rated defence will be able to keep the game close. Against most teams that may be the case but New Orleans are on a 3 game winning run which has put them in touch in a division where it appears no team wants to win it. Jacksonville's cause isn't helped by the absence of the DT Stroud and McDaniel and I think New Orleans will take full advantage here.

EDIT: Stroud not suspended yet.

[Anderson.]

New England @ Indianapolis

Hellova match up right here. Red hot undefeated NE against plain undefeated Colts. Basically, Brady can torch the the Colts however, to cash up on -6 against the Colts at home would be unethical, haha. Indy +6 small stakes.

$100 on Indianapolis Colts @ 1.91


GL all.

[TazaD]

Thanks Valient...but I still don't expect him to get too many more than 25 touches.

Hopefully they get behind early. Still think it's too many.

[Twinky99]

04/11/2007	WAS Redskins @ NY Jets	WAS Redskins +3.5	To Run
04/11/2007	GB Packers @ KC Chiefs	Under 44.0	To Run
04/11/2007	ARZ Cardinals @ TB Buccaneers	TB Buccaneers +3.5	To Run
04/11/2007	CAR Panthers @ TEN Titans	TEN Titans +3.0	To Run
04/11/2007	JAX Jaguars @ NO Saints	NO Saints +3.5	To Run
04/11/2007	DEN Broncos @ DET Lions	Under 52.5	To Run
04/11/2007	CIN Bengals @ BUF Bills	Under 50.0	To Run
04/11/2007	SD Chargers @ MIN Vikings	SD Chargers -0.5	To Run
04/11/2007	SEA Seahawks @ CLE Browns	Under 53.5	To Run
04/11/2007	HOU Texans @ OAK Raiders	OAK Raiders +4.0	To Run
05/11/2007	DAL Cowboys @ PHL Eagles	DAL Cowboys +4.0	To Run
06/11/2007	BAL Ravens @ PIT Steelers	PIT Steelers -2.0	To Run

guys i betted on this parlay. for fun..
its the 'teaser cards' from bet365. i just realised they've got such stuff there, (noob yes).
i betted $4 to get a return of $100.
not too bad i guess:p

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Oakland Raiders - Houston Texans
Selection	Over 41.5 Points
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	The Texans are 8-3 OVER their last 11 games vs losing teams and they are 6-1 OVER their last 7 games as underdogs. Oakland is 8-3-1 OVER their last 12 games as favorites of 3 or less points and they are 13-6-1 OVER their last 20 games vs losing teams.

Event	Kansas City Chiefs - Green Bay Packers
Selection	Green Bay Packers +2 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.04 (Back)
Reasoning	The Packers are giving up 14 points a game on the road while the Chiefs are yielding just 15.7 points at home but Green Bay is scoring 25.7 point a game on the road while the Chiefs are putting up a poor 15.7 points at home. The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Event	Tennessee Titans - Carolina Panthers
Selection	Carolina Panthers +4 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.07 (Back)
Reasoning	Carolina was smashed by the Colts last week and look to bounce back and this is an important match for them about the second place in the division standings. They're now 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 9-5 ATS the last 14 times. They are 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games away from Carolina.

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Detroit Lions - Denver Broncos
Selection	Detroit Lions -3 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/11/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.07 (Back)
Reasoning	Denver is yet to cover on the road this season and they have only been able to cover 4 of its last 17 games overall. They have trouble scoring and will face a Detroit that is undefeated so far at home this season.

[davidmphill]

Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals -

Bills have run into some good form of late with 2 wins in a row and can make it 3 with the stuttering Bengals paying a visit. Bengals have been dissapointing this season and are not helped by their road record. Fancy the Bills here without the handicap so with a 1.5 pt start I'll have some of that.

Buffalo Bills +1.5 @ 1.9expekt


DETROIT LIONS v Denver Broncos

The Broncos have been very ordinary this season for me. Watched several of their games and bar the fine win over the Steelers they've not really got a consistent game going. The Lions I watched last weekend at Chicago where they turned in a fine performance to claim a great win over their rivals. They've been a suprise package this season and have won all 3 matches at home so far. Broncos have found points hard to come by of late and I can see the in form Lions winning this by more than the spread.

Detroit Lions -2.5 @ 1.9 totesport


Kansas City Chiefs v Green Bay Packers

Brett Favre is having a dream season, records are broken and his arm still is strong as was evident at Invesco last Monday night where he picked off the Broncos to make it 3 road wins on the spin. The Chiefs are doing ok but aren't setting the world on fire. They're finding points hard to come by and are reliant on their defence, they will have to be on their mettle today to prevent Favre and the rest from winning yet another road trip.

Green Bay Packers +1 @ 2.06 coral


Minnesota Vikings v San Diego Chargers

The Chargers are a charging right now and they're on a roll and nearly back to their best following a very ordinary start. Their dismantling of the Broncos at Invesco looks like its kick started their season and they look to have too much for the stuttering Vikings today. Even though the Vikings will benefit from home field advantage they will struggle with their offence struggling. Their running game is very solid but thats all they have right now. 3 wins from 4 has given hope to the Chargers again and they have 2 huge assets in Tomlinson and Gates going forward.

San Diego HT/FT @ 1.57 bet365


Atlanta Falcons v San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are a pathetic force going forward it pains me to say this season. A lot more was expected from them this season and they won 2 close games to start off 2-0 but since then its been 5 losses in a row and their offence sucks big time. The Falcons aren't exactly playing well themselves but I just cant see how the 49ers can win the way they're trying to move the ball. Alex Smith just doesnt convince me and Frank Gore is struggling following his break through season and is struggling with an injury.

Atlanta Falcons -3.5 @ 2.05 coral

[blackcrow]

Pittsburgh -9.5

While the Steelers have tended to struggle on the road, they are absolutely dominant at home. Steelers are 3-0 at home, winning 26-3 vs Buffalo (-9.5), 37-16 vs Niners (-9), 21-0 over Seattle (-5).

Also, Pittsburgh are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Haven't lost a Monday Night Football game at home since 1991, a span of 11 contests. Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Baltimore is the AFC's most penalized team, giving up 438 yards to penalties.

The Steeler's defence is one of the best around and should keep a pretty ordinary Ravens offence in check. Pittsburgh has given up the fewest yards per game (256.9) and the fewest points per contest (13) of any NFL team this season

[Valiant23]

4/5 Dave nice going!

[Rob the I ty]

Just got back from Vegas, but I must say the atmosphere is great but the sportsbooks don't offer close to what online bookies offer. I couldn't believe some of the odds, great week however.
Baltimore +10 @1.83
The Ravens haven't played well especially offensively but at 4-3 they are still in the playoff race. They face a tough Steeler team and a hated rival as well. The Ravens have really beaten up Big Ben in recent meetings including last year when the Ravens won 27-0 & 31-7. This should be a tight defensive game, and with the extra week of perperation I expect QB Kyle Boller to make several plays down the field. The defense will really pressure the overrated Steeler O line and make things difficult again for Big Ben. This is way too many points for the Ravens to be getting in a divisional game such as this, I expect the Steelers to win on a late FG.

[Anderson.]

Pit/Bal u37. I'm expecting a defensive battle here.

[TazaD]

Well, ugly week, but another one in the black none-the-less.

One horrible beat (Detroit defense scoring 21 points!!) was made up for by the Brownies getting their biggest defensive stop in the last 15 years!! (Have they even been back in the League that long?...Na, probably not.... )

I'm starting to really like them...it's a horrible pity they are stuck in the AFC going nowhere...mind you, still giving my Lions half a show in the crappy old NFC

Nice going Dave indeed. Really should have been on Buffalo myself...

[Rob the I ty]

Congrats Pittsburgh backers this one wasn't even close.

The Ravens are just horrible. This team is going downhill fast and will be lucky to win 6 games.