NFL Wk. 17.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by veldre

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns

Playing an "early" game in the Eastern Time Zone, the 49ers will be facing a hungry Browns team and they'll also be forced to deal with the nasty late December Ohio weather. While the 49ers are just 1-5 SU/ATS their last six on the road, the Browns are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six at home. Last week's loss was an extremely costly one for the Browns, as they no longer control their own playoff destiny. In order to get in, they need to win on Sunday afternoon and also have the Titans lose at Indianapolis. Although "must win" situations certainly don't guarantee that a team will be successful, they typically do guarantee a maximum effort. Anderson and the Browns have something to prove and I expect them to be at their best.

Go Cleveland!

.

[TazaD]

Green Bay -4

They've said they are playing to win, to build up some momentum going into the play-off's after last week's disaster...even if they don't, Detroit are just terrible on the road, allowing nearly 35 ppg!
Everything that could have gone wrong for GB did last week...3 blocked punts for a start!...Orton was just 8/14 for 101 yards, so chalk this one dw to really bad luck (in some really bad conditions)
Grant gets another 100+ yard rushing game, Favre hits deep when he needs to against a terrible Det D, and Kitna can't keep up without a running game.


KC +6.5...ML? (3.50ish)

League: 10-0 SU (and ats...av. WIN 11.5!!) in a game were the total is <36, off a SU loss on the road with >30 mins TOP, if opp had >30 mins TOP as a 7+ dog. [KC]
(1-0 SU 2007. Oak 20-17 KC @ +4.5)

No reason for these teams not to be playing flat out this week...Stat-wise these are two very similar teams, in fact, KC may even have a slight edge defensively...they allow 3rd down concersion at just 32.29%, which is second behind NE! Obviously, given their position that indicates they give up big plays...but they are playing the Jets!...a team that has beaten only one team in regulation all season...Miami!! I just don't see how a 3-12 team (1-12 v. anyone but Miami remember! ) can be favoured by this much anywhere, anytime.
Herm back on his old stomping ground...KC have won the last 3 finale's...If KC don't win, they sure as hell don't get beat by a TD!


...also got this one... League: 1-17! (Av. win 2.7) away 7+ fav, off a 7+ ats win as home fav, if opp lost ats with 30+ mins TOP. [SD]

...but tough to take Oakland with Russell starting. He looked real bad last week, and not sure how things improve against this suddenly aggresive, effective SD D!
LT is questionable...even to the point of unlikely, which could be a factor. Oakland run D is SO MUCH better at home...allow just 3.7 ypr as opposed to 6.1 away!
No real way of telling how Russell goes, or how many points he hands to SD...probably best left alone

[allthethings]

Playoff teams that have quote-unquote nothing to play for:

NY Giants (no ML)
TB +130
Dallas +350
Jax +245
Seattle +105
Indy +230

So let me ask you guys something: These teams are going to, what, stand around and let the other team score? They're still professionals, right? The second-stringers want to impress?

Obviously they're going to run vanilla offenses, but I have to think there's some value to be found here.

On the other hand, non-playoff teams with nothing to play for against playoff teams with nothing to play for:

Bal +160 at home going against the Batch-led Steelers
Det +175 at Rodgers-led Green Bay
Oak +320 at home against SD, no idea if SD will play anybody

Anybody know how teams in this situation have done in years past? I recall N.O. losing at home to Carolina last year when they held everybody out...but I don't remember who was favored under the circumstances.

[blackcrow]

NE -13.5

Both teams are in the playoffs and should rest some of their players but more so the Giants than the Patriots who have a bye next week. The Giants have a number of injuries and will sit them to out in a meaningless game for them.

NE are looking to go 16-0 and are 5-2 as road faves with five wins by 21+ points. They have allowed just two offensive TDs in last 31 drives by opponents. They also players looking at breaking some records. Brady is two touchdown passes shy of breaking Peyton Manning's season mark of 49 set in 2004. Randy Moss needs one TD catch to tie Jerry Rice's season record of 22. The Patriots have shown how good they are this season and even if the Giants were fit and redy to go, they would still struggle against them like other teams before them

[TazaD]

quarterback Aaron Rodgers (hamstring) and cornerback Charles Woodson (toe) remained limited.
Rodgers said he expects to be inactive for the third straight game unless he feels 100 percent healthy

NO were +3 home dogs last year...

I know TB will pull most of their defensive starters early...an they id give up 21 to SF last week!

Dallas and Jax are definately the ones...All the hype about the Cowboys resting and Washington "needing to win" has blown this line WAY out...
...still trying to find who's playing for how long...

...Jax too...Gray will get the start I guess...but giving up 6 to a poor Houston team looks suspect at best...Garrard likely will start the game at quarterback, but backup Quinn Gray might take most of the snaps.
Running back Fred Taylor (five consecutive 100-yard rushing games) likely won't play against the Texans, along with Maurice Drew. Seldom-used LaBrandon Toefield might take the bulk of the carries.


No word on SD starters as yet..

Last week was the first game in the last 2 weeks of the season that Indi had won for the last 4 years (I think!)...so a new willingness to play, or does histry suggest starters won't get time this week?

[TazaD]

Cleveland v. San Fran over 40

Basically, I'm not as convinced the Browns can run away with this one. ***
I said a couple of weeks back how tough the 49ers schedule has been v. run D's...only played 3 teams outside the top 15...they scored 20 against Cinci...now get a Brownie run D that is second last oly to Miami @ 4.5 ypc.
Hill has been good, Weinke is still a downfield threat if Hill can't go, and they should have considerable success on the ground.
They do give up 27.4 ppg on the road tho...and Cleveland av. 27.7...far more if we take out 7 in Wk. 1 with Frye at the helm, and 8 v. Buffalo in a blizzard!
Cleveland will likely top 30...no reason San Fran can't hit 20...esp. since Cleveland have won just one game all season by more than 10.

Jax @ Houston over 41

Gray likely to take over from Garrard early, but in 3 full games he lead the Jags to 28 @ Tenn, 24 @ NO and 24 @ TB.
Houston av. over 26 ppg at home, and have the 4th best y/pass in the NFL, behind Indi, NE and GB!!
Jax give up over 20 on the road, and are likely to be resting defensive starters aswell.
Rosenfels came in late in the previous meeting and went 11/12 for 82 and a TD, so no reason he won't have success again.
Houston have scored 20 or more in all of the last 5 meetings at home...with worse offenses, and against better D's you'd think!
A "meaningless" game total that looks far too low.


*** Just for the record, they don't NEED to win at all...in fact it's a totally meaningless game.
If Tenn win, the Browns are out. If Tenn lose, the Browns are in. That simple.

[allthethings]

Last week was the first game in the last 2 weeks of the season that Indi had won for the last 4 years (I think!)...so a new willingness to play, or does histry suggest starters won't get time this week?

Think again.
Indy 27, Mia 22 last year in week 17...Indy at home with nothing to play for.
Indy 17, Ariz 13 in week 17 in 05...Indy at home with nothing to play for.
Indy 34, SD 31 (OT) in week 16 in 04.
Indy 20, Hou 17 in week 17 in 03.

I think Week 17 is a great place to lose money. Tread carefully.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by allthethings

Think again.
Indy 27, Mia 22 last year in week 17...Indy at home with nothing to play for.
Indy 17, Ariz 13 in week 17 in 05...Indy at home with nothing to play for.
Indy 34, SD 31 (OT) in week 16 in 04.
Indy 20, Hou 17 in week 17 in 03.

I think Week 17 is a great place to lose money. Tread carefully.

ats

2006. Wk. 17. Indi 27-22 Mia @ -9....Wk. 16. Indi 24-27 Houst lost SU @ -9
2005. Wk. 17. Indi 17-14 Zona @ -7.5...Wk. 16. Indi 13-28 @ Seattle @ +10...Wk. 15. Indi 17-26 SD @ -7 (Although I remember picking that as a legit SD win)
2004. Wk. 17. Indi 14-33 @ Denver @ +10...Wk. 16. Indi 34-31 SD in OT @ -7
2003. Wk. 17. Indi 20-17 @ Houst @ -8.5...Wk. 16. Indi 17-31 Denver @ -7

There you go...9 straight season ending ats losses before last week.

Every week is a great week to lose money...tread carefully indeed!

[Chutaraness]

TazaD i have been following your tips for some weeks now and would like to thankyou for making me so much money .


Keep em coming

[Valiant23]

Originally Posted by Chutaraness

TazaD i have been following your tips for some weeks now and would like to thankyou for making me so much money .


Keep em coming

Come on Taz, you promised us that you'd stop multi-regging.





to the PL Chutaraness.

[Rob the I ty]

New England -13
The Pats are lookin to become the first team in NFL histoy to go 16-0 in the regular season (the 72' Dolphins went 14-0). The Pats have been eyeing history ever since they clinched home field. Last week Brady and Moss were gunning for the TD records and I expect much of the same tonight. Look for Brady to go to Moss early for the record to set up a nice lead. The Giants are hurtin and will rest many key starters since they are looked in to the #5 spot. The Pats have always played out the season, even last season they played Brady the whole game vs a Titan team that needed to get into the playoffs, the result a 40-23 Pats win.

[Rob the I ty]

Cleveland/SF over 40
The Browns are in desperation mode needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Browns haveslowed down offensively now that teams have had a better look on Derek Anderson. But the 49ers will have trouble sticking with the Browns' receivers. The 49ers have played 5 games @1:00 ET, giving up 16 @St-L, 37 @Pitt, 33 @NYG, 20 @Atl & 31 @Car. Those teams don't have the offense that the Browns possess. The 49ers have also been more effective offensively with Shaun Hill and Frank Gore as ran better with less pressure.

[Rob the I ty]

Pittsburgh/Baltimore Under 34.5
The Steelers have little to play for except for seeding in the AFC. Big Ben won't pla which means the capable Charlie Batch will start. The Ravens were embarassed by the Steelers earlier this season giving up 35 1st half points. That defense will show up lookin to put the hurt on their hated rival. Troy Smith the 2006 Heisman trophy winner gets the start, but he was terrible last week @Seattle. If the Ravnes are to have a chance Smith will have to play conservative and not make mistakes. The Steelers won't be doing anything extravagent either so expect a tight low scoring game.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by TazaD

*** Just for the record, they don't NEED to win at all...in fact it's a totally meaningless game.
If Tenn win, the Browns are out. If Tenn lose, the Browns are in. That simple.

Yeah...that's my mistake. Sorry.

I didn't realise the Titans game was the late one...so, in fact, Cleveland DO need to win to keep their chances alive...
...although they still miss out if Tenn win.



(Last one I promise Valient. My random name generator is on the blink )

[Evad Black]

Eh?

Your original summation was correct, if the Titans win then they go through, if they lose the Browns are through. It makes no difference what Cleveland do against the 49ers.

Unless that is the Titans end up tieing with the Colts, then Cleveland would need to have won to go through.

Anyways I want to echo the earlier sentiments towards you Taza, my Betfair account looks much healthier than it did at the start of the season, for the most part thanks to your tips.

[Valiant23]

This was worth staying up for!

[Matt]

Great stuff isnt it Mr V?

I think a bit of the Boston/New York rivalry has crept into this one.........fans and players really up for it

[allthethings]

Considering, but haven't quite decided what to do if anything:

Buff-Phil o 37.5

Two teams with nothing to play for...these seem to be the sort of games where the offenses do pretty much what they want.

Dallas +9
Dallas ML +350

I don't know...Dallas has a shot at knocking out their division rival...

Also like Jax +245 at Houston.

[TazaD]

That was great to watch...was hoping the Giants would get up...

Definately some Yankee/Redsox atmosphere going on!!

Thanks Evad...had myself slightly confused there for a minute!!

att...one of the problems of too much Christmas cheer!...I did all my stats and stuff on Thursday...came up with Eagles/Bills over 36.5 as a solid play...only to find the line had gone to 38! DoH!!
Obviously a massive difference in those 2 points, so now a leave alone game for me.

Green Bay now looking to rest sme starters...looks like Nall will go most of the way...damn, forgot about him

definate buy back possibilities here...

[Chutaraness]

Im on the over 39.5 in the cleveland game taz! gl.