NFL Wk. 10.

[TazaD]

May aswell carry on the tradition of playing games rediculously early in the week...
...again tho, I think the lines will soon be moving against me, off some pretty important numbers.

GB -5.5

League: 5-17-1 (Av. loss 12.2) away 3+ dog, off a 21+ ats win as home 3+ dog. [Min]
1-12 (Av. loss 14.2) if opp last had 30+ mins TOP.

Favre and his pass happy D face off against the 2nd worst pass D in the NFL...already a 23-16 victory AT Minny, with Favre going 32/45 for 344 and 2 TD's.
Minny's offense revolves soley around Peterson, who again had a big one last week...but interesting to note that the 3 games Min have won they've scored 24+...in the 5 they've lost they've scored 17 or less.
Green Bay have the 5th best scoring D, allowing just 17.8 ppg...and importantly v. the Vikes, they are 8th best v. the run, and equal 6th in ypr @ 3.7.
Besides anything else, the Pack are 7-1, and 6-1-1 ats afterall!!

Oakland v. Chicago over 37.5

League: 18-3 over (Av. total 39.9...av. score 49.0!) away fav, 6 or more days rest, if opp is off a home 10+ ats loss. [Chic]
(3-0 2006. KC 28-31 Cleve @ 36.5. Chic 42-27 SL @ 41. Pits 37-3 Caro @ 38.5
1-0 2007. Pits 28-31 Denver @ 39)
16-1 over (Av. total 40.1...av. score 50.8!!) if their last game was at home. (16-0 since 1991)

I'm just going to keep riding this over-rated Bears D! They allow 5th wost 4.7 y/rush, which plays into Oakland's only real strength! They have the 4th best running attack @ 140 y/game.
Griese had been on fire, av'ing 26 ppg until last week's 4 INT disaster v. Det...pretty sure he can bounce back here against a team allowing over 22 ppg.
Chicago come out firing offensively after their BYE week, and Oakland should be able to score enough to keep it close and push it over.
I see the total pushing upwards of 38 around the place, so an early 37.5 is a bonus.

[TazaD]

NO -11

League: 1-8-1 (Av. loss 18.4) away 10+ dog off a BYE with total >42. [SL]
(0-1 2006. Tex 6-34 Dal @ +13
0-1 2007. Oak 14-28 SD @ +10)

This does seem a funny line to me...thought somewhere in the vacinity of 17 would be more like it.
Sure the Saints started 0-4, but they've won the last 4 straight by an av of over 13...sure against a couple of crappy teams, but um, SL 0-8?!...with an av. loss of 15 ppg...
As I mentioned last week, NO actually have the 6th best run D in the NFL, allowing just 3.7 ypc...sure, they give up big chunks through the air, but the thing about allowing big plays is that the other team has to make them!!
SL has a patched up O-line that just got worse with Incognito out, and have scored just 3, 7, 3 & 6 on the road as it is!!

Atlanta @ Carolina under 36.5

League: 1-7-1 under (Av. total 42.6...av. score 31.5) 3+ dog, off a 1-3 ats win as home 3+ fav, if opp is off an ats loss as a dog. [Atl]

...and a team trend, since 2004, Carolina are 0-10 under at home inside the Div. (Av. total 40.5...av. score 34.0) **

These teams are a combined 4-12 under on the season, and with good reason.
Atl av. just 14 ppg...have only topped 20 once, v. a pretty bad Houston D, and haven't topped 16 on the road @ just 9.8!!
Both teams are in the top half for pass D so expecting plenty of clock killing ground time from both teams...esp. with Vinny T struggling with a sore achilles, and no recognised back-up.
The last 4 meetings @ Carolina have gone under @ less than 30ppg.

** I thought it might have been Fox's conservative play calling, but it looks like opposition teams come out running...av. 33.1 runs to just 28 passes...

Quiet weekend on the NFL front...can't see anything else I like at all...
...Kinda like McNair over 195.5 yards passing, but he's just as likely to get pulled if he throws an early pick...

[colacooler]

Hey i've put an accumulator on 5,6 and 7 games this week. Looked pretty safe!

I'm pretty confident on the 7 games to win but i put a small bet on the 5 and 6 matches to cover the stakes, if i don't get the 7 games right!

I've got Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
St Lous @ New Orleans,
Miami @ Buffallo,
Minnessota @ Green Bay
Detroit @ Arizona
Jacksonville @ Tennesse
Cinncinati @ Baltimore

How well you think I will do?
Accumulator (7) = £25 = £300.27
Accumulator (6) = £7 = £59.74
Accumulator (5) = 10.50 = 63.40

I'm fairly new to betting so you'd probably all say stay away from accumulators but I just want to make a little money every week and take it slow and I just thought the 3 accumulators above ensured I will make a little bit of money.

Worst case scenario I would only make £17.24. Well I suppose worst case scenario would be £0! But I don't believe I could only get 4 of those results right.

What you guys think?

[allthethings]

Buffalo is at Miami, and Miami could quite easily win their first game of the season.

Jax-Tenn is a complete tossup. Very little difference between those two.

Detroit on the road is a big question mark.

Just my opinion of course...but I think there is no accumulator that is wise to take, especially in the NFL where anything can happen. Good luck with it

Originally Posted by colacooler

Hey i've put an accumulator on 5,6 and 7 games this week. Looked pretty safe!

I'm pretty confident on the 7 games to win but i put a small bet on the 5 and 6 matches to cover the stakes, if i don't get the 7 games right!

I've got Cleveland @ Pittsburgh
St Lous @ New Orleans,
Miami @ Buffallo,
Minnessota @ Green Bay
Detroit @ Arizona
Jacksonville @ Tennesse
Cinncinati @ Baltimore

How well you think I will do?
Accumulator (7) = £25 = £300.27
Accumulator (6) = £7 = £59.74
Accumulator (5) = 10.50 = 63.40

I'm fairly new to betting so you'd probably all say stay away from accumulators but I just want to make a little money every week and take it slow and I just thought the 3 accumulators above ensured I will make a little bit of money.

Worst case scenario I would only make £17.24. Well I suppose worst case scenario would be £0! But I don't believe I could only get 4 of those results right.

What you guys think?

[colacooler]

Titans at home I think should pull through.
Miami is a gamble but the Bills are on a 3 game winning streak and I they they should win.

Detroit @ Arizona, Detroit looking good but yeah on the road they are sketchy but after last weeks performance I'm looking to them to carry on their streak!

[allthethings]

16-2 NFL Stat since 1991

Play on a winless DOG after week 5 coming off a bye.

Since 1991 there have only been 17 plays and none this year but we have two this week since the only two winless teams happen to both be off a bye and are underdogs. System tells us to play on Miami and St. Louis in week 10.

Another trend similar to this is :
winless teams (0-5 or worse) are 90-54-4 ATS as underdogs, including 55-25-3 ATS when facing a non-division opponent.

Also .. winless teams (0-3 or worse) are 19-3 ATS as underdogs following their bye week.


watch out for the dogs this week!!!

[colacooler]

I can't see Rams or Phins doing anything this week, I know it has to end at somepoint but not this week.

Anyway forgot to mention my 5 + 6 accumulator bets are in fact folds so i need to get 5 of 7 or 6 of 7 games correct.

[American Locksmith]

Got A few picks I like this week.

BUFFALO At MIAMI

This is a game I will actually be going to as I am Bills Fan, Buffalo has played incredibly well lately better than any bills fan expected due to all the injuries we have. The Dolphins, coming off a 13-10 loss to the Giants had a bye week to get ready for this one. I think Buffalo will make some big plays this week thru the air, the Dolphins secondary has been bad all year (Being Kind) so look for JP Losman to have a pretty big game with 250+ yards and a couple touchdowns. The weather here in South Florida right now is very mild and it will probably around 80 degrees for this game which is actually a big break for Buffalo, Bottom line if the Dolphins had RB Ronnie Brown I would give them a very fair shot to win this game. I wouldnt be shocked at all if the Dolphins won but, without a running game I think Buffalo will outscore Miami. PICK BUFFALO -4 Score Buffalo 27-16.

St. Louis At New Orleans

This game should see plenty of points. Even though the 0-8 Rams have been terrible they are coming off a bye week last week and there offense will finally have all of its players. Marc Bulger will play after sitting out prior games with broken ribs, Stephen Jackson will also play and they will be able to move the ball and Bulger should be able to have 300 yards and a couple of TD's vs a very average pass defense. The Saints offense is clicking and they are looking like the team that went to the NFC championship last year, Reggie Bush is likely to play with a sore knee and Drew Brees should also have another big day. PICK OVER 47 Score New Orleans 37-24.

Denver At Kansas City

Denver travels to Kansas City after being embarassed in Detroit last week and I really feel strongly that Kansas City will win this game. The Chiefs lost a tough game at home last week to Green Bay and now welcome struggling rivals Denver into Arrowhead one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. Denver's offense has been making plenty of mistakes and will still be without there best WR Javon Walker. Kansas City will not have RB Larry Johnson available for this game, however Priest Homes will get 20+ carries in this game and he really wants to prove he still has what it takes to be a starter. Denver's run defense is very poor and Kansas City's offensive line is very good. I think Kansas City will have the ball alot in this game controlling the clock and will wear down Denver's defense who is really a mess while Kansas City is tied for the divison lead and can take the lead with a win and a SD loss to Indy. PICK KC-3 Score Kansas City 30-13

[saintg1]

As with Weeks 8&9, I have looked at the so-called 'expert' picks on CBS (ATS) and ESPN (S-up) to check where there is agreement on outcomes (taking the selections of the top two pickers only on each site). Whilst not at all scientific, it does offer another insight.

Week 8 delivered 4 from 7 and week 9: 5 from 8 = 9 from 15 to date (60%).

This week, there is agreement on: Redskins, Buffalo, Packers & Seattle.

[saintg1]

Have been doing a bit of spreadsheeting re pts for and against, averages per game etc and seeing how these stand alongside the lines set for week 10. Based on performances thus far, the games which stand out are: atlanta @ carolina to go under 36.0; St Louis @ NO under 45.5; buffalo @ miami over 41.5; Jax @ Tennessee over 35.0, Indianapolis @ San Diego under 48.0 and chicago @ oakland over 37.5.

Taza appears in agreement with at least two of these (the two highlighted). Thought on the others most welcome.

[davidmphill]

Atlanta @ Carolina

Both sides here have shocking records on the road in Atlantas case and at home in Carolinas case. The Panthers look set for their 1st home win of the season as they go up against a Vick less and rudderless Falcons outfit. They won last weekend but it was against an inept 49ers side that suck on offence. Anything near their fine win at Arizona should be enough to win this and the spread is coverable for me.

Carolina -3.5 @ 2.0 coral


Bills @ Dolphins

The Dolphins are in dire straights right now and seem to have no idea where their 1st win is coming from. This won't be it for me as the Bills have performed above what was expected of them this season. They should've beaten the Cowboys at home but somehow lost that one. They won well at home last weekend at home to the Bengals to make it 3 wins in a row with a fine 4th quarter effort. The Dolphins are awful right now althoiugh their offence isnt too bad but confidence is low and a defence that cant stop the run could harm them against the Bills.

Buffalo -2.5 @ 1.9 ladbrokes


Browns @ Steelers

I fully expect a Steelers win here but the Browns can keep it close and therefore come within the handicap for me. They've been a big surprise this season and could be play off bound with some luck. They bounced back well from a mauling by the Steelers in week 1 and have won 4 of 5 and their offence is clicking well. Steelers looked good on Monday but were helped out by the Ravens offence. The Browns will have to tighten up of defence and make the all conquering Steelers defence stretch themselves to stand a chance which from what I have seen of late is possible.

Cleveland +9.5 @ 2.0 ladbrokes


Denver @ Kansas City

Denver are struggling terribly right now and that was evident in their shocking showing at the Lions last weekend. They've struggled to put points on the board and lately they've struggled to keep points off the board. They suck against the run and will be heartened by Larry Johnsons absence but even that wont help them for me. I can see KC winning this by more than the handicap and increasing the pressure on under fire Mike Shannahan.

Kansas City -3 @ 2.05 paddypower


Minnesota @ Green Bay

Key for me here is Minnesotas inabilty to stop the pass. They're right down at the bottom in NFL ranks for that and won't find it easy against a resurgent Brett Favre who has got his passing game working well. They're back to the best under his leadership and their defence is showing it can stop the run this season which will help them when they come up against in form Viking RB Adrian Peterson.

Green Bay -5.5 @ 1.94 canbet


St Louis @ New Orleans

The Saints are back to their best following a very slow start to the season. They've put away some ordinary sides of late and they dont come much more ordinary than the 0-8 Rams who are having a season to forgot. Saints have Reggie Bush as their talisman but its their passing game thats shining so far for me this season. The Rams are struggling to put points on the board and especially so on the road. Its a big spread to overcome but the Saints are going in the right direction and can do it for me.

New Orleans -10.5 @ 2.04 coral

[blackcrow]

Kansas -4.5
Kansas may be missing Johnson but have a fit Holmes to take over against a Denver side that struggles to contain the rush. Denver concedes an average 29 points and will hard to stop Kansas from winnig this game which would see them take the lead in the AFC West

Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against a losing team.
Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an undersog.
Broncos are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC West

Pittsburgh -11.5
Pittsburgh have been unstoppable at home and now they meet a Clevealnd side who are on the up. However the Browns meet the best defensive team in the nation and while Anderson has been throwing it quite well, he will struggle to contain the blitzing that comes form the Steelers. It is the home form that will carry Pittsburgh here, as Big Ben seems to gain alot of confidence form it and usually finds his receivers

The Steelers have won and cashed seven straight versus the Browns overall and they are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS at home in this AFC Central rivalry.
Steelers routed Browns 34-7 in opener on Lake Erie
They're just sixth team ever to win their first four home games of season, all by 21+ points.
Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Steelers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite.
Favorite is 6-0-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

Tennesse over 36.5
Jacksonville will hope to see the return of their QB Gerrard to give them the direction and choices they lacked over the last few weeks. However for a team that prided itself ondefence they have given up too many points in the last few weeks and have struggled to contain the pass. Young should enjoy finding his receivers against them and he should be supported by his running back White who has rushed for 100 or more yards in each of the last three weeks

The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Green Bay -6.5
Farve should be ready to continue the Packers roll on against their division rivals who struggle to stop the pass. Earlier in the season GB won 23-16 at Minnesota as Farve threw for 322 yards. While Minnesota strength lies in their RB Peterson, GB have a very good rush defence and will look to fill up the line of scrimmage to stop Peterson and force the Vikings to throw which they struggle to. Too much as stake here for the Packers not to win by at least a converted touchdown

Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.
Packers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a losing team

[gazzyg]

Going with the player props and
Plaxico Burress (NY Giants) Receiving Yards under 78.5
I expect him to be used sparingly as last few weeks with his dodgy ankle still playing up. Just 5 catches for 43yds v San Fran followed by 2 for 14 yds v Miami in his last 2 games...can see another cameo appearance being lined up just to suggest the threat of going deep creating a bit of space for shorter passes to the likes of Shockey.

[davidmphill]

Detroit @ Arizona

I like the look of the vastly improved Lions this season. Watched them win at Soldier Field which was impressive and then they followed that up with a mauling of the Bronco's at home last weekend. Arizona are in a slump of 3 losses in a row. If the Lion's defence can play anywhere like it has of late then they should be able to keep the Card's quiet and then look to their improved passing game to prosper.

Lions +2.5 @ 1.91 centrebet

[Matt]

Just one for me tonight.

San Diego to beat Indianapolis. @ 13/8 various.

Indi are correctly favs here but I would have them closer than this, San Diego are still a quality side and are just having an indifferent season probably due to the coaching changes taking place. Indi will have had a lot taken out of them after the New England game last week and they have always struggled to stop the run when facing up agaisnt LaDanian and the Chargers offensive line.

A value pick.

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Green bay seem like a gift at -5.5, suspicously so lol, but im on nonetheless. I like a few unders this week, pittsburgh should dominate cleveland offense so i reckon 46.5 could be a wee bit too high in that game. Also buffalo - miami under 40.5. Oh and phili to win.

[jeffers]

The Pack are looking awesome atm.

[jeffers]

Another SNF thriller , and well done Matt

[saintg1]

Originally Posted by saintg1

As with Weeks 8&9, I have looked at the so-called 'expert' picks on CBS (ATS) and ESPN (S-up) to check where there is agreement on outcomes (taking the selections of the top two pickers only on each site). Whilst not at all scientific, it does offer another insight.

Week 8 delivered 4 from 7 and week 9: 5 from 8 = 9 from 15 to date (60%).

This week, there is agreement on: Redskins, Buffalo, Packers & Seattle.

3 from 4 = 12 from 19 to date (63%)

[saintg1]

Originally Posted by saintg1

Have been doing a bit of spreadsheeting re pts for and against, averages per game etc and seeing how these stand alongside the lines set for week 10. Based on performances thus far, the games which stand out are: atlanta @ carolina to go under 36.0; St Louis @ NO under 45.5; buffalo @ miami over 41.5; Jax @ Tennessee over 35.0, Indianapolis @ San Diego under 48.0 and chicago @ oakland over 37.5.

Taza appears in agreement with at least two of these (the two highlighted). Thought on the others most welcome.

3 from 6. Average!