NFL Wildcard

[TazaD]

Washington +4

Early days, but anything over a FG looks very generous here.
Statistically these teams are very even, with Washington even holding a slight advantage in ypc and pass D...and, it nearly goes without saying that the Redskins schedule has been a hell of a lot tougher than Seattle's NFC West loaded joke.
Since week 1, at home, Seattle have beaten a terrible Cinci team by just 3 (7-9), LOST to NO (7-9)...beaten SL (3-13), SF (5-11), Chic (7-9), 'Zona (8-8) & Baltimore (5-11)
In fact, going purely by teams record, Seattle have faced just TWO teams all year better than the 'Skins...a 3 point loss @ Cleveland and a 21 point loss @ Pits.
Washington have been better still since Collins took over, and I think they even get the SU win here.

[Agent Dyno "PTY"]

gO SkInS !!! Money line !!
Giants $line
Jax -1

[Ashtee]

OK, you've got me in again, Taza. Moneyline of course . I'm over Kansas ... I think .

2.82 Pinnacle, while Seattle 1.55 Bet365, so market is at 100%.

[TazaD]

Ah yes...that nasty OT word(s)...

Sorry Ash, I'll try to sound far less convincing in future!

Jax @ Steelers over 38.5

The Jags haven't had an under since Gerrard went down mid-game @ Indi...a whole 11 weeks ago!!
During that stretch they have yet to score less than 24 points, including 29 @ Pits (wk. 15) and 25 @ Indi in wk. 13.
I do think they can be scored on tho...they've had a very soft schedule. The 4 teams they've played in the top 12 for scoring put up 22 (Pits), 28 (Indi), 17 (SD and Houston at home)...Houston 41 away last week, not that that really counts.
Steelers have scored less than 21 at home just once, and that was the 3-0 bog game v. Miami.
Weather ahead looks to be ok, so no reason not to see points here.

NYG @ TB under 39.5

Pretty sure this total has been overblown by a couple of very high scoring games by both teams late, but I think it will be a low scoring match-up.
Two pretty good D's...in fact Indi and Pits are the only better pass D's (ypp), so the bll should spend plenty of time on the ground.
Tampa's home D is better still, they allow 13.5 ppg and more than 14 just one time all season!...That was 24 to Jax, but held them to just 12 FD's, Gerrard to 7/16 for 100, and 7 of the point came from an INT.
NY D has been very good aswell...a couple of games look bad (Jets and Minni) but 35 combined D/ST points in those 2...
...the actual Giants defense has allowed more than 22 to just 3 teams...all of which are in the top 4 for scoring! (Dallas, GB and NE).
Two solid pass D's, two teams that run nearly 50% of the time anyway, one jittery Eli and hopefully zero D/ST scores should see this one under.

(Although I might hold out on this one, hopefully to grab a 40 somewhere. )

[TazaD]

Going to do something I've never had much success doing...but found a great line at Centrebet, when everywhere else is on the way up...

Washington @ Seattle over 39.5

Seattle defense has allowed less than 19 in just 6 games all season...

...Balt (24th in scoring, and a mess late!)
...Carolina (26th in scoring. 29th in total offense...in a game they LOST!)
...San Fran (twice. Dead last in scoring and total O)
...SL (28th in scoring and 24th total O)

...and Tampa in the first game of the season where the Bucs moved the ball well enough but just couldn't score.

They gave up 23 to Chicago, who av. the same ppg as Wash...and 27 to NO who av. about 3 ppg more.

They've played 3 comparable D's to the 'Skins tho, scored 20 v. Tampa, 27 at home v. Baltimore before calling off the dogs in the 3rd, and 28 @ Philli.
...and do av. over 27 ppg at home.
I think they will come out throwing aswell, which should be good for some points either way.
Wouldn't take this above 40, but 39.5 is very handy indeed.

[colacooler]

You mean Seattle Taza.

Like all your calls Taza especially Steelers V Jags only if the weather holds up and yeah it does look good atm.

[Rob the I ty]

Agree on everyone Taza.

[Rob the I ty]

Jax/Pitt Over 39
The Jags have really been a scoring machine in the 2nd half of the season. The Jags have scored at least 24 points in 10 straight games. The Steelers have scored at least 21 points in all but one home game (vs Miami in a monsoon), they average 28.25 ppg @Heinz Field. Without a dominant run game the Steelers have been forced to pass more, and Big Ben has responded with a great season. The Jags have confidance in their passing game as well with Garrard making huge strides this season. The previous meeting in Pittsburgh a mere 3 weeks ago was 29-22, I expect a similar scoreline again.

[Rob the I ty]

Seattle/Washington over 40
The Skins are the hottest team in the NFL other than New England. Todd Collins is working Joe Gibbs' offense to perfection and is allowing his receivers to make plays after the catch which is their strength. Seattle has been potent on offense as well. Matt Hasselbeck has quietly had his best season to date. Without a dominant run game Seattle has gone to more 4 receiver sets to creatre matchup problems. With no true #1 receiver but a slough of #2 type receivers in Hackett, Branch, Burleson and Engram Seattle has been very tough to defend. Both coaches are aggressive and understand the importance of being aggressive in the playoffs. I expect a close game in the 20's say 24-21 or 27-24.

[Rob the I ty]

SD/Tennesee Under 41
In what appears to be the biggest mismatch of the Wild Card round is in San Diego. The Chargers are rolling into the playoffs after a terrible start. Their pathetic division kept them afloat until both sides of the ball got back in gear. The Titans have been unimpressive much of the season but a 10-6 record eeked them by the Browns via record vs common opponents. These teams met a month ago with SD making an improbable comeback down 17-3 in the 4th to win 23-17 in OT. The Titans shut down the Chargers for most of the game harassing Phillip Rivers. The Titans will attempt to control the clock and put the game in the hands of Rivers again. As he has shown time and time again Rivers isn't ready to diminate. I look for Tennessee to play conservative and take their shots when necessary. I don't expect big plays from either side but SD should prevail in a low scoring affair.

[Rob the I ty]

Tampa Bay -2.5
The Bucs have beenrolling along this season with little competition in NFC South. Jon Gruden hasn't won a playoff game since winning SB XXXVII. With Jeff Garcia he finally has stability at QB. The Giants come into this game beat up after keeping their starters in vs NE, it cost them 3 starters. Eli Manning has been hot and cold through out his career, but one thing is certain, he struggles against the Tampa 2 defense. Eli played 2 teams that run the Tampa 2 this season in Minnesota and Chicago. His numbers in those games? 37/76 468yds 2TD 6INT, 5 sacks. I look for Eli to struggle again in the playoffs and barring an incredible effort from Brandon Jacobs the Bucs take this one.

[Rob the I ty]

Pittsburgh -2.5 @2.50
The Steelers getting points at home in the playoffs, well the value is in selling the points. The Steelers were beaten at Heinz Field by this Jaguar team 29-22 3 weeks ago. They allowed the Jags to rush for over 200 yards. With Troy Polamalu back healthy the Steelers will force the Jags to throw. In that game the snowy turf worked against Pittsburgh as the defenders didn't have much traction. I believe Steelers DC Dick Lebeau will devise a plan to keep the Jags in 3rd & long and than bringing serious pressure on Garrard. It may result in some big plays for Jacksonville but it will keep them from controlling the tempo like they did in Week 15. Big Ben will look to exploit the vulnerable Jags defense especially with Heath Miller. Without Marcus Stroud the Jags interior line has been weak. Look for Big Ben to set up the run with the pass, especially between the tackles. This Jaguar team has been in the playoffs only once since 1999 and they were drubbed by the Pats in 2005, experience is on the Steelers side and I believe they will cool off the Jags.

[TazaD]

Yeah...Not sure how the hell I got Utah out of Seattle?!!

Must have had the NBA on my mind...and the way I'm going in that I'd still lose an over 39.5!

Weather check in Seattle now...

Rain / Wind

High 45°F Precip 90%

Wind:

SSW 18 mph

Pretty happy I grabbed the +4 when I did, but could well be looking to buy back the over.
I see 40.5 @ 1.98 (under) at Pinnacle...

[Valiant23]

I've not had much of an input on picks this year but a couple I like;


Jacksonville -3 @ 2.07 Pinnacle

Jacksonville are what Pittsburgh used to be. They pound teams into submission and even when they were banged up they were still getting it done. AFC south is the toughest conference in football and if they had been in any other they'd have won it at a stroll. With the exception of week 7's defeat to Indy there has not been one time this year where they have been unable to score points and I don't think that Pitts have anything they should fear, especially when you consider the severe injury problems Pitts have in what are key positions when facing a team like Jax.

I honestly think that even though the Jags are behind Indy and NE, they still are the biggest threat to New Englands quest for perfection in the AFC.

Washington SU @ 2.67 Pinnacle

Originally Posted by Rob the I ty

Seattle/Washington over 40
The Skins are the hottest team in the NFL other than New England. Todd Collins is working Joe Gibbs' offense to perfection and is allowing his receivers to make plays after the catch which is their strength.

Since the double time out fiasco Washington have been on fire and are playing like a team on a mission. Although Seattle have managed to turn their season around Washington will have all the momentum and I feel it will take a special performance from the Seahawks. They've only had 2 decent teams to play this year (Steelers and Browns) and couldn't beat either.

[blackcrow]

Seattle -3.5
Washington have to go across the country to play the Seahawks at their home where they had one of the best home records, going 7-1, while Washington were 4-4 away. While Washingotn have been playing well lately, especially after the death of Taylor, that is not to say they will be the only team ready for this game. Seattle play in one of the loudest stadiums, and look for them to become the 12th man for them.

On both the offence and defence they line up pretty similar, but you would expect the Redskins to rely on the run more, so look to the Seahawks to stack the box and force them to throw, where they don't have the weapons they require. Steadily, Hasselbeck's throwing game is coming together as is the running game of Alexander, and their combined experience may be another factor in this game.

Up until their loss to Atlanta last week, Seattle's defence had been outstanding in giving them 5 wins in a row and look for them to play with more intensity this week.

Seattle is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite
Seattle is 18-7 ATS in home games
Seattle won last five home games and are 5-0 ATS spread
Seattle is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Seattle is 6-2 in their last 8 games against NFC opponents
Seattle has won three straight playoff games at Qwest Field.

Jags -3.5
Pittsburgh come into this game havng lost 3 of their last 4 games. Injuries to their main running back as well some of their defenders means they come into this game worse for wear. They allowed an average of 28.5 points and 373 total yards in those 4 games.

Jacksonsville come into this game having won 6 of their last 7, with their only loss coming last weekend in a meaningless game. The focus of their attack will be the twin rushing threats of Taylor and Jones-Drew who have already caused havoc to the Steelers defence earlier this year when the Jags won 29-22. Taylor has had five consecutive 100-yard games in a Jacksonville offense that has scored 24 or more points in each of its last 10 games Helping them out will be the steady and efficient Gerrard who has the one of the best completion rates in the NFL. Defensively, they are quite good and should be able to put plenty of pressure on Big Ben and his WR's if the rushing as expected, falters.

Jacksonville have covered the last 5 meetings between the two sides

Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

[funkthis]

I got Washington +3.5. This should be a close game, neither team really convinces me. Seattle are a good team but the sooner they realize that Shaun Alexander is a banged up piece of shit, the sooner they can use his salary to buy a more efficient RB. Seattle play much better when they throw the ball first and back it up with a running game, Alexander isn't the force he was in 2005 and he really is a shadow of his former self (mainly through unjury more than anything else). He's only had 2 80+ yard games this year and the last one was back in week 3 against the paper thin Bengals Running-D. If Seattle air it out to their now-healthy receiving core they will win, simple as that.
Washington on the other hand have been the hot team in the last 4 weeks but you really have to ask yourself how much effort have they put in to get this far and how much left do they have to give? The QB play of Collins looks good on paper but for those who have watched him play his numbers are all smoke and mirrors, alot of his yards have come through basic screens. Which is fair enough, he doesn't have a big arm, knows his limitations and doesn't make stupid turnovers. He's not going to be a game winner though, Washington are going to need their Running Backs to pound the shit out of this Seattle D.
Now from my comments some people would be thinking 'wtf' I've made more points for Seattle to win and cover than Washington. BUT I'm fading myself on this one and following John Madden's golden rule, the team that has the proven running game will usually win. I honestly think Seattle will win but I can't resist taking Washington with the points (the 2007/08 fairytale team like New Orleans was last year)

I'm also on Jax to cover -2.5
Pittsburgh have lost the NFL leading RB for the year and with him goes their main gameplan. Jacksonville are the team to beat at the moment

[TazaD]

Amazing how 1 missed FG can completely change a game!!

If the 'Skins go up by 4 they cover the spread. End of story.

Eve if Seattle go down and score a TD...then up by 3...Collins doesn't feel forced to throw a 40 yard wobbler into the wind...and well, it was a slippery slope from there for sure.

[blackcrow]

Seattle -3.5

Jags -3.5

Well done Taza and Rob with the overs. Easy winners

[blackcrow]

NY Giants -2.5 (currently at +2.5)
NY has a strong running game and a decent passing game but the OL should be able to give Manning enough to find his WR's. On the defensive side, NY has a very good pass rush that will be used regularly to keep Garcia in check. Their 53 sacks topped the league. I think this is the game where Manning steps out his brother's shadow and exerts his authority.

The Giants were 7-1 away from home and their only loss came against the Cowboys in Week 1.

Tampa Bay may be a bit rusty coming into this game having rested many of their starters over the last 2 games. Defensively they are very good and on both the pass and the rush. However, they are missing a couple of starters here which may cause some problems for them. Offensively, Garcia may struggle to withstand the pass rush of NY.

Giants are 12-4 ATS in road games
Giants are 12-3 ATS after scoring 35+ points last game

San Diego -10.5 (also playing it at 13.5)
San Diego have won and covered their last six games. They've run the ball for an average of 176 yards per game over last five weeks. Their running game has really come on in the last few weeks and even their passing game is starting to complete a good balance on offence.

Tennessee come into this game without their WR and TE, and possibly their QB. They have struggled to put up points, relying on their running game to gain their yards. The Chargers led the NFL with 20 INT's and finished 5th in scoring defence, allowing 18 points per game.

Tennessee are 1-5 when they allow more than 20 points, a figure the Chargers have reached in 11 of their last 14 games. In four of its final five games (omitting the final contest against a second-string Colts lineup), Tennessee's pass defense allowed an average 232 passing yards per game and a combined six TDs through the air.

San Diego went 11-5 against-the-spread this season, including 7-1 ATS at home and 10-3 ATS as the favored team.
Tennessee went 8-8 ATS, 5-3 ATS on the road, and 4-4 ATS as the dog.

[colacooler]

Well done on the overs Taza made money for us all!

Today I will be hitting the San Diego -10 and TB -3.

And while the stats seem to be suggesting unders for todays game. I just have the feeling there will be points.

TB and NYG have big Defences but I still just have that feeling you know.
The line is 39.5, I think it could be something like a 23 - 20, 21 - 24 kind of game. I know the reasoning is not solid but this is the play offs and points win games and you have to throw caution to the wind and get those TDs!