NBA Tues 16th

[TazaD]

Anyone else surprised by Houston being such big dogs @ Dalllas?...+7.5?!

Obviously Dallas have a great record...but...home wins;

Portland (15-24)
Indi (20-18)
Seattle (14-25)
NO (14-22)
Phoenix [win by 2 only] (29-8)
Charlotte (12-24)
Clippers (17-21)
Philli (10-28)
Lakers (25-13)...good win...although even LA allow 105 ppg @ 47% away.
Denver (18-17)
Sac (14-21)
Toronto (18-21)
Min [win by 6 only] (20-16)
NO (14-22 I said...)
Wash (21-16..but just 6-13 on the road)
Mem [5] (9-30)
Chicago (22-17...but just 4-12 on the road!)

...Not the most impressive list I have ever seen!...1 win by more than this against a single winning team...sorry 2, but not sure we can count Indi as a good team!

Throw in losses to Detroit, GS and SA...honestly not sure it reads all that well at all.
In fact, they are just 7-7 ats at home v. winning teams, and 2-6-1 at home when they don't score 100.

Houston are 23-13, have won 9 of 10 SU (although against some poor teams aswell it must be said)...and have not lost a road game by more than 7 in their last 14!...inc. wins @ Chicago and SA.
They play the best D in the league by a fair way, allowing just 41.6% shooting...they also play their best D on 2 days rest, allowing just 83.1 ppg.

Seems a very inflated h'cap...problem is, I'm not entirely sure why?!

[TazaD]

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[ShaqSpear]

Sport	NBA
Event	Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Seattle Sonics
Selection	Cleveland Cavaliers -2,5
Strength	10/10
Date	16/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	GB@ 1.91
Reasoning	Big mistake by the bookies estimating Cleveland so low. Just a 2,5 handicap between two teams with big difference of value and form. Just take a look at Cleveland. 3wins , then a loss at strong Chicago , who on the home court can beat any team in the NBA. We seen just yesterday what happened to the Spurs. Then another 5 game winning streak, including wins against strong San Antonio and high flying New Jersey and then they lost again on another very hard to get a win from court of Phoenix who lost just 3 at home all season. Two days ago they beat the Clippers without Hughes who got injured in the game and today they will lose to Seattle. Yes, of course I'm kidding. It sounds stupid, and it is. No way the Sonics can get a win without Rashard Lewis still out for another 2 months and with just one win after a 6 losing streak slump. Yes, they won against Utah, but Utah is the kind of team that wins against top teams and has bad days in which they lose to the Bobcats for instance. They didn't played that bad , but Allen had the game of his career scoring 54 points, after taking the game into overtime with a 3 pointer just 8 seconds before the buzzer. He will not play again today. First of all because he is not the kind of player who has great high scoring game streaks, second because he's not playing against Utah, but against one of the toughest defenses in the league.(just 92.6 pts allowed much lower compared to Utah's 99.5) Collison and Wilcox will not do so well against Ilgauskas and Gooden, and I see Seattle overcomed not only in the paint but also outside. In the win against the Clippers Cleveland scored 50 pts in the paint. Hughes might be out, but Cavs did well(let's not say better) without him in the last game. But, then again he may play as he is day to day. I don't see any other outcome in this game except an easy win for Cleveland who look like they are in the start of another medium winning strake.

[expert]

the handi is so good just because Allen was hot in his last game, if i remember right he scored around 50 pts...a good bet imo.

[TazaD]

Yeah, Cleveland the bst in the league agains the 3-ball too...should be a good match-up for them.

Dallas v. Houston under 181

Slight change of tack, as the line movement (both up and out) are really putting me off here!

For the last couple of seasons, Dallas unders have been $$ against good defensive teams, because despite their perception as a high scoring, running team, they are in fact very slow paced, and rely on good shooting to score well.
It seems people are finally coming to terms with that now, as this is a lowish total, but still not low enough imo.

Dallas have gone over this total 9 times in their last 16 home games...and every time, they have scored 100+.
v. Indi (allow 100.1 ppg @ 46% on the road)
Seattle (8th worst for points allowed and 1st worst in % allowed)
Suns (6th worst for points allowed)
Clips ...in a game where they shot 51.2% inc. 15-27 3's....Clips allow 100.9 @ 47% on the road anyway)
Lakers (7th and 7th worst)
Denver (4th worst points allowed)
Sac (10th and 9th worst)
Toronto (8th worst % allowed)
Washington (2nd and 6th worst!)

Houston have the best D in the NBA, both in terms of points allowed and %.

Every time Dallas has NOT reached 100, the score hasn't topped 181.

Houston are intersting on the rod aswell...they've topped 181 on 10 occassions (in regualtion)...
Sac (7th most shots allowed)
Clips (14th most shots allowed, but Houston shot over 51% and had jsut 10 TO's)
LAL (5th most shots allowed)
GS (3rd most shots allowed)
Wash (4th most shots allowed)
Pho (THE most shots allowed)
NYK (6th most shots allowed) .......seeing a pattern yet?
Det (19th most shots allowed)... but Detroit topped 100 and has just 6 TO's!!
Milwaukee (8th most shots allowed)
Utah in their first game of the season, allowed 107 on 52,7% shooting.

Dallas are the 4th slowest team (27th most shots allowed), and allow just 88.8 ppg at home this season.

Houston play their best D on 2 days rest, allowing 83.1 ppg...they are 1-5 under this season as a 5+ dog...the over coming only due to double OT @ LAL....and both teams are a combined 10-20 under v. winning teams.

[expert]

Great job Mr.Taza..im with you on this one!

btw...any opinions on New Orleans +7.5...IMO thats a trap game because of the different streaks of both teams, NO W2, ORL L2...cant get rid of the feeling that the frustration of Orlando players will be felt tonight in NO...BUT...h2h shows differnet picture....anyway cant get rid of the gut feeling that Orlando will cover easily

[Kewell]

I agree. I've actually gone with New Orleans to win under 10.5 for some value. They could be the upset of the night.

Also gone on Dallas under 10.5 as I think Houston who have also been in great touch (9-1) will keept it close in this derby.

[TazaD]

Great call on NO, kewell.

As for me....Must not over-think games, must not over-think games, must not over-think games.......

Hopefully the Cavs can close it out for Shaq to go 4-0