NBA Sunday 4th

[TazaD]

Chicago @ Milwaukee under 200.5

League: 6-20 under (3-23 this no! Av. total 189.3...av. score 182.0) away 4- dog, off a 10- ats win as any home fav, if opp is off a 15+ ats win. [Chic]

The Chicago defense has been on fire since the All Star break, allowing just 87.7 ppg, and 40.5% shooting in their last 5!
The Bucks have been playing some solid D themselves, holding Toronto to just 81 points last game, and averaging 95 ppg in their last 4 at home.
The last meeting in Milwaukee (in Jan) was 90-99, and the last 5 meetings here have all been under this number @ 190.0

[aek]

I've got to disagree with you TazaD, defensively, Chicago is hot, red hot. However, Milwaukee @ home can score alot of points and you don't need a good field goal percentage to score alot of points; rebounds/turnovers etc are an integral part of how many points get scored in a game. Milwaukee kept NO to 37% but the scored finish 101-109 and Chicago kept them to 39% for a score of 104-93. A 13 pt difference despite the extra 2% shooting. Whats more important is looking into the mentality of the team, they are going into a 5 game road trip w/ Miami, Orlando being part of it. Take a jab @ the possible frame of mind of the players and the personel. Anyways, long story short, Milwaukee is going to play open which will reflect in Chicago also opening up their defensives. Expect this to go over 199.5.

[Donald_Duck]

welll...I got screwed in Dallas last night thanks to 64 points 3rd quarter...haha

Event	Milwaukee Bucks vs Chicago Bulls
Selection	Over 200 Points
Strength	10/10
Date	04/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.95 (Back)
Reasoning	Milwaukee has played the over in 6 of their last 8 home games and last 5 games Milwaukee is averaging 109.4 PPG while giving up 100.6 PPG and Chicago has scored some lately too.

[blackcrow]

Washington under 218.5

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Washington

[Donald_Duck]

Event	New Orleans Hornets vs Utah Jazz
Selection	Utah Jazz -2 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Utah are 10-2 straight up their last 12 games and they are 66-43 ATS away off an away win. New Orleans are 0-9 ATS vs teams that outscore their oponents by 3 or more points and they are 3-12 ATS in March the last year

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Boston Celtics vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Selection	Boston Celtics +1 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	04/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98 (Back)
Reasoning	Boston Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games while Minnie has lost 5 of last 6. Boston are much mcuh better since Pierce returned and will be motivated here tonight to revenge for the narrow lost.

[expert]

Sport	NBA
Event	Chicago Bulls @ Milwaukee Bucks
Selection	Under 196.5
Strength	10/10
Date	04/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.95 (Back)
Reasoning	Ouch, this line has fallen heavily, but imo it is still very tempting as Bulls are in town, and their defence is working very well indeed with 40% FG allowed in last 5 games. And IMO they will stop the Bucks heay shooting, which is now closing in on 50% FG in last 5 games. I know its a tricky one to still back this line which has fallen for 3.5 points from opening, but really cant see Bucks getting many free shot vs. the Bulls...anyway still this line is the tird largest form the 2004..Also after long time is see i agree with Taza...

[Dale Cooper]

Must have been a good finish to the Bulls game, were behind for most of it.

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

bit late, i apologise, but ive had wayyyy too much to do today. This is what the regression would have flagged up tonight (had its best night ever last night going 11-5 and 7-1 on ATS selections), hopin for more of the same. Already a few have lost and a few have won

Boston +1.5	handicap	no +1.5
Bost/Min under 192	total	no +1
Golden State +8.5	Handicap	no +2.5
GS/Was under 218	Total	no +1
Chicago +2	Handicap	yes +8
Chi/Mil under 196.5	Total	no +6.5
Utah -1.5	Handicap	no +2.5
Utah/NO under 197	Total	yes +8
La Lakers +10	Handicap	no +3
LAL/Phoenix under 218.5	Total	yes +11.5
New Jersey +2	Handicap	no +1
NJ/Philli under 190	Total	no +2
Seattle -10	Handicap	yes +18
Char/Seattle under 206	Total	yes +16

[tkt]

Strange day in NBA today, 4 out of 4 dogs have already covered! Does this mean that 76ers and Jazz will loose today too? And Bobcats will cover?

[Donald_Duck]

hopefully not Jazz...but it doesnt feel good at all...

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

Originally Posted by Donald_Duck

hopefully not Jazz...but it doesnt feel good at all...

feels alright to me

[aek]

Sunday at 9:05 PM
CHARLOTTE (22-37) AT SEATTLE (23-35)

Lately Charlotte has been allowing teams to score quit easily - 60% plus shooting for sac-town. But they them selves also scored over 50%. However, shooting % wise Seattle is not doing so well and to counter-act this they will defend. And w/ 4 losses on the trot for the Bobcats you can imagine that their upbeat tempo isn't going so well, thus, expect a less attacking method taken by the Bobcats today. Ultimately, under the total of 205.5

[bozz]

Bobcats have allowed 127 & 135pts in last 2 away games.
Ray Allen is expected to play so Sonics might have a field day.
If Bobcats allow 60% thats way too much & I feel this total 205.5 can be reached then.
I like the unders but feel can go over that total!

[Donald_Duck]

Originally Posted by whycantistayawayfromdogs

feels alright to me

Utah are already trailing 2-11....lol

[aek]

Originally Posted by aek

I've got to disagree with you TazaD, defensively, Chicago is hot, red hot. However, Milwaukee @ home can score alot of points and you don't need a good field goal percentage to score alot of points; rebounds/turnovers etc are an integral part of how many points get scored in a game. Milwaukee kept NO to 37% but the scored finish 101-109 and Chicago kept them to 39% for a score of 104-93. A 13 pt difference despite the extra 2% shooting. Whats more important is looking into the mentality of the team, they are going into a 5 game road trip w/ Miami, Orlando being part of it. Take a jab @ the possible frame of mind of the players and the personel. Anyways, long story short, Milwaukee is going to play open which will reflect in Chicago also opening up their defensives. Expect this to go over 199.5.

What did I tell all ya' xxxxxx down up in this place? Follow my lead to the hidden treasure of millions of greens.

[Donald_Duck]

Originally Posted by Donald_Duck

you where not the only one playing over...

[aek]

Originally Posted by Donald_Duck

you where not the only one playing over...

hahaha, thats only because u got influenced by my pick

[aek]

Originally Posted by bozz

Bobcats have allowed 127 & 135pts in last 2 away games.
Ray Allen is expected to play so Sonics might have a field day.
If Bobcats allow 60% thats way too much & I feel this total 205.5 can be reached then.
I like the unders but feel can go over that total!

Never doubt me again.

[bozz]

hahaha next time I won't.
Ill keep an eye out on your future selections.