NBA Sun 14th

[TazaD]

Not sure if I'll be able to post before game time, so I'll throw out a couple of trends now...

League: 10-0 SU (8-2 ats...av. win 12.8) any away fav, 1 day off an OT game as an away fav, if opp last won ats as a fav. [Dal]

It seems that the line is a bit low due to those 2 things...but in fact the OT doesn't seem to affect them next game...could even make them more focussed afer a close game, closer than it "should" have been anyway...
...and Toronto winning ats as a fav, but now being pegged as a home dog shows where they are really at, and their win @ an injury riddled Boston means very little.
On the surface the Raps are playing ok...7 wins from their last 13, but Clips, Portland, Minni, Atl, Wash, Mil and Boston...some very ordinary teams there, just 2 winning teams amongst them...and I still don't rate Minni, and Washington are terrible on the road.
Obviously Dallas have the best record in the NBA...I don't like having them to cover spreads on the road**...esp. out East in day time games...but 1.50+ has to be a decent price for the win.

** Although, they are 10-2 ats as a fav of -4 to -9, and 7-2 away v. losing teams.


Portland +2 ...will be a play if the line nudges up there...

League: 9-1 (Av. WIN 4.0) home 4- dog, with rest off a 10+ ats win as home 4- dog, if total is 190+.
...the one loss was by 3 in OT.

Portland are also 10-1 as a dog of <5.5!!

What have Danver done lately to warrant road fav status?...Now, obviously injuries, suspensions have hurt, but 1-7 last 8...and they were only so close to Houston because houston shot 16-28 FT's...McGrady 2-9!
The total aspect indicates that Denver road D is plain bad...makes it tough to win games.
Just 2 away games in their last 10...allowed 123 @ LAL and 99 @ NO, who were without their best 4 players....Denver allow nearly 105 ppg on the road.
Obviously Portland haven't been in great form themselves, but their last 5 have 2 wins, losses @ Dallas and SA and a close loss to Miami.
I'll risk taking them as a home dog anyway, with a couple of points to play with.

Good luck guys.

[TazaD]

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[ShaqSpear]

Sport	NBA
Event	Toronto Raptors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Selection	Toronto Raptors +1,5
Strength	10/10
Date	15/01/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.75
Reasoning	And it's Toronto once again my pick of the day. Yesterday I thought they will get a win against strong Mavericks, unluckily they lost after Howard's last second basket. The Mavs have lead just 15 seconds combined in the whole game but still they have managed to take the lead at the right time and came out with the win. This story will not repeat itself today when the Raptors visit Phila. They have managed to get 4 wins in the last 6 games since they have the entire squad fit, except maybe Saw but he is not that important. They lost to New Jersey who where in great form at that moment. Phila are really bad. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games. The only win came at home vs. limping Bucks who have to deal with major injuries and stand no real chance against anyone at the moment. The other win before this 6 games was against Denver, but those guys where without Josh Smith who's return might look to have changed their future performance. In the first game this season these two met it was a 106-104 win for Toronto, after a rare last second 3pter by Bosh, but back then Iverson and Webber gathered toghether 49 points , 16 assists and 16 rebounds. None of them will be here today as Iverson was traded for Denver and Webber's contract has been bought out. They got Miller now, and he's not doing bad, good assists player, and Joe Smith who in my opinion is not good enough for a first team regular just yet. Can you believe they placed Iguodala at PF? I agree that's the right choice at the moment but I believe they need a taller and stronger guy in the paint next to Dalembert. Green is doing pretty good , so is Korver coming of the bench, but the Raptors bench looks much better, much more productive, Calderon, Jones, Graham, Rasho, and most of all Bargnani all responding at the right time. Andrea has really impressed me lately I really couldn't believe my eyes when seeing him hit those 3pters against Boston and Milwaukee with so much quickness. He has a pretty fast shoot release for a player coming from Europe, and at his age. Anyway, the Raptors are looking much better and I don't think the crowds are such a good enough factor for the sixers. It's defenitely gonna be Toronto looking better in this game.