NBA Sat 3rd

[TazaD]

Boston @ NJ under 199

League: 2-14 under (0-15-1 this no...av. total 186.6...av. score 181.1) away 5+ dog, 2 days off an ats win as 5+ fav, if opp is off a 10- ats win as fav. [Bost]

Boston off a 50+% shooting game, inc. 10/19 3's, which is very unlikely to happen again tonight...even with that, they still only hit 102, which goes with 77, 87 and 92 in their previous 3, so after the initial scoring burst after the return of Pierce, Boston have gone back to a more slow tempo, defensive minded game style.
NJ also off a 50% 3 point shooting night against the poor defense of Washington, but Boston are 4th in the NBA for 3% allowed, so they will have a much tougher time getting a perimeter game going in this one...which will hurt, given they have no real inside scoring presence.
The teams met last month for a 78-92 game...earlier in the season it was 90-92 @ NJ, and the 3 previous meeting @ NJ all went under thi number easily @ 185 in the last 4.

Toronto @ Cleveland over 191 (2.05)

League: 18-6 over (Av. total 192.3...av. score 198.5) aay dog, no rest off a 15+ ats loss as home fav, if opp last won ats as a dog. [Tor] (2-0 this season)
9-3 over (10-1-1 thi no..av. total 201.0...av. score 205.9) if total is 190+.

Toronto are coming off a horible shooting night v. the Bucks (36.8%!) and Bosh was held to just 8 shots, as the Raptors couldn't penetrate the Milwaukee zone...but a night to work on that, should see things back to "normal" tomorrow.
Besides one terrible game v. Chicago, Cleveland have hit 94+ in ALL but 6 games this season!...Min (92 anyway!), Det, Orl, SA, Orl & Det, so 3 very good defensive teams.
Toronto aren't!
Toronto have scored 91+ in each of their last 6 on the road, and 4 those games were against Houston, Chic, Det and SA, so 4 very good defensive teams.
191 looks a very reasonable total for these teams to get to.

Detroit @ Memphis over 196

League: 8-2 over (8-1-1 this no...av. total 202.1...av. score 215.5!) away fav, no rest off a SU (10- ats) loss as away 4- fav, if total 190+. [Det]

Memphis have quietened down lately after their whirlwind couple of months, but I'm still not sure they're ready for a home total of <200.
For a start, both teams av. over 198 ppg on no rest...and Det are coming off a terrible 37.5% shooting performance today against a rejuvinated Shaq-lead Miami defense.
Memphis are a long way from that!!
Despite slowing down somewhat, the Grizz have still hit 97+ in 13 of their last 16...maybe an 88 point home performace v. Utah is keeping this total down, but it was on 37.5% shooting...and although Det are a good defensive team, they still allow 93 ppg on the road, and 96.6 on no rest...and despite some decent "scores" allowed, Det have allowed 47.7% shooting in their last 5, so a high paced game should definately see some scoring here.
...of course, no mention yet of the Memphis D, allowing 111.2 @ 48.9% in their last 5!...and have allowed 95+ in ALL of their last 38 games!!!!!!
Tell me that won't fix Det's recent scoring woes...

[blackcrow]

NJ over 198.5
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games

Atlanta over 192.5
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New York's last 10 games when playing Atlanta

Cleveland under 190.5
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 11 games when playing on the road against Cleveland

[Donald_Duck]

Event	Memphis Grizzlies vs Detroit Pistons
Selection	Detroit Pistons -7 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	03/03/2007
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.98 (Back)
Reasoning	Perfect oppurtunity for the Pistons to bounce back from last nights defeat vs Miami. Memphis have no team chemistry and the defense is a big joke. The Pistons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Western Conference. Memphis is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games against the Eastern Conference and they are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog of 5-10.5 points.

[expert]

okay, today im agreeing with bc...

New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Those two have tradition to score a lot when playing in Atlanta as over was achieved in 6 of 7 times, and also a good chart play - Hawks just lost and the history says that they are 6-1 in last 7 sfter a SU loss. Also taking advantage of the second lowest line from 2005...IMO a Joe Johnson show tonight in Atlanta.
Over 192 @ 1.95 Pinny

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
against Taza in that play....
Okay..Raptors are hot, but guess who is not, their star player Bosh is cold, maybee he will go big tonight, but IMO he shuld choose a lighter venue for that..Cavs are a definite under team at home, andline is droping from 192 to now 189.5, but still cant see both teams scorin 95 points each and crossing this line..Too many under trneds to fit on this review, so just a few:

• Under is 5-0-1 in Cavaliers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Cavaliers last 7 games as a home favorite.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Cavaliers last 7 home games.
• Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
• Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Central.
• Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meeting

Under 189 @ 1.99 Pinny

[TazaD]

Ahhhh...team trends v. the big boys huh?? ...
(why not, I'm 0-2 last 2 head to head's on this site!)

Portland -2 & under 201.5

League: 4-14 (1-15-1 this no...av. loss 11.8) away dog, no rest off a 15+ ats win as away 5+ dog, if opp is off a 10+ ats win. [Sac]
League: 2-8 (0-10 this no...av. loss 13.0) away dog, no rest off any upset SU win as a 5+ dog, if opp is off a 20+ ats win. [Sac]

League: 3-11 under (1-13 this no...av total 190.7...av. score 181.1) home 4- fav, off a 20+ ats win as a 5+ fav. [Port]

Two completely seperate trends, but I'll go with both.
Really like the under...both teams off massive shooting nights...Portland off a 58.3% effort (11/20 3's) last game, and Sac hit 52.7% (9/19 3's) v. Lakers last night.
5 of the last 6 head-to-heads have been under this meeting, and the last 2 @ Portland have been 196 and 182 this year...and in this year's game, the teams shot 48.5% and 49.4%!!
This game will at a much slower pace than either team have played recently, so I don't expect a whole lot of scoring...
...Portland are the team in the better form here tho, imo. They've held 12 of their last 13 opponents to 103 or less (in reg.), inc. Washington, Phoenix and Utah, so they are playing some decent D.
Sacramento's form has been patchy at best, and they are just 3-10 away v. losing teams, and 2-11 as a dog of 4 or less!!
I really suspect they will hit a scoring wall tonight, so happy to take both bets.

Good luck guys.

[blackcrow]

Portland over 201.5
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Portland's last 16 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Sacramento's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland

LAC under 186.5
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of the LA Clippers last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana

[whycantistayawayfromdogs]

This is what i got for tonights games from my regression

bet	total/handicap	significant?
Boston +6	handicap	no +3
Bost/NJ under 198	total	no+3
New York +5.5	handicap	yes +11.5
NY/Atl under 192.5	Total	no +5.5
Cleveland - 5.5	Handicap	no +0.5
Tor/Cle Under 189	Total	yes +8
Detroit - 6.5	Handicap	yes +12.5
Det/Mem under 198.5	Total	no +5.5
San Antonio -4	Handicap	no +2
SA/Houst under 177	Total	no +3
Sacramento +2.5	handicap	no +1.5
Sac/Port under 201.5	Total	yes +2.5
Orlando +13.5	Handicap	no +2.5
Orl/Dal under 189	Total	yes +7
La Clippers -3	Handicap	yes +9
LAC/Ind over 186.5	Total	no +5.5

The ones in yellow could be thought of as significant, but im really just following everything it spits out

[bozz]

Detroit vs Memphis

Offering 189.5pts for overs/unders.
Total seems a bit low for my liking.
Memphis avg. 101pts while give up 106pts
Look for Detroit to bounce back on the offense, hopefuly they catch Memphsis on a good shooting night also.
95pts apiece looks very reachable.

[TazaD]

Originally Posted by bozz

Detroit vs Memphis

Offering 189.5pts for overs/unders.
Total seems a bit low for my liking.
Memphis avg. 101pts while give up 106pts
Look for Detroit to bounce back on the offense, hopefuly they catch Memphsis on a good shooting night also.
95pts apiece looks very reachable.

Not sure mate, but I reckon that's 199.5...

Atlanta -6

League: 20-4 (Av. win 14.0) 5+ fav off a 10- ats win as a 5+ dog, if opp last won by 10- ats as a fav. [Atl] (2-0 season)
9-1 (Av. win 11.9) if total 190+

League: 4-12 (Av. loss 13.7) away 5+ dog, off a 10- ats win as home 5+ fav, if opp is off a 10- ats win. [NY] (0-1 season)

Remarkably not one of those games is common, so a combined 32-8 trend..and 21-5 narrowed down.
Basically, anyone can beat GS at home!! NY even struggled to do that, as they were down with under 3 minutes to play.
They have lost their last 4 road games by 19, 20, 9 & 8 with losses at boston and Philli, and Atlanta certainly is no worse that those teams.
The Hawks actually trained with a full strength team for the first time all season 2 days ago!!...They've lost 6 of their last 7, but against some very tough teams...Home games v. Houston (win), SA and Phoenix...on the road @ Chicago, NO, Dallas and Wash...
...so they should relish getting an "easy" home game here.

PS. You gotta love an under that still hits after OT!

[Donald_Duck]

yeah...lol...thanks for that one TazaD

and I like the over in Atlanta, really really much...

and Under 189 Points in Dallas...1.99....too good to miss IMO
I always been lucky when playing under when Dallas play at home...let's hope it will continue...

[Donald_Duck]

not teven tripple OT seem to save the over in Atlanta but hopefully TazaD's Atlanta play will cover my ass...

[Donald_Duck]

ahaha...Atlanta blew 16 point lead but the game went over thanks to OT....

[TazaD]

.

[aek]

Originally Posted by Donald_Duck

not teven tripple OT seem to save the over in Atlanta but hopefully TazaD's Atlanta play will cover my ass...

Once was more than enough ey?