NBA Sat 27th

[TazaD]

Indi -5.5

League: 11-27 (Av. loss 10.3) any away dog, no rest off a SU win but ats loss as home 5+ fav, if opp was last home, and total is 190+ [Tor]

On the surface, the Raptors have a decent recent record, but wins over NO, Boston x2, Charlotte, Sactown, Philli & Bucks in their last 7...none with a winning record, and in fact 4 of those 6 teams are LAST in their Divs...only Memphis is worse than NO, and Philli is second last to Boston!
Indi have lost 6 of their last 10, but 2 losses to Dallas, 2 to Miami, @ Nets and v. NY, who are quickly becoming the most under-rated team in the NBA...all definately no disgrace.
Toronto won the first meeting at home, but Indi shot just 37.2%...Harrington 4-15, O'Neal 5-12...and Toronto got off to a 32-17 first quarter than Indi could never pull back.
Unlikely to happen again here, and Indi are the better team.
Also, Indi are 8-0 last 8 (since 2003) when their FG% has decreased in each of their last 3 games, and 7-1 (8-0 SU) this season on 2 days rest, allowing just 89.5 ppg.

Chic v. Miami over 192 (2.02)

League: 26-9 over (Av. total 199.9...av. score 202.7) home 5+ fav, with rest off a 15+ ats win as home dog, if total is 190+ [Chic]
13-3 over (15-1 over this no!...av. total 198.9...av. score 205.2) if opp is off any ats loss.

First meeting this season in Chicago was 109-103 with nothing special involved.
Chicago haven't been scoring well of late, but this one is all about the Heat. They allow 103.2 ppg on the road...they have scored 93+ in their last 11 games @ 103.4, and allowed 96+ in 13 of last 16 @ 101.9.
If anything can get the Bulls offense up and running, t's this Miami road D.
...Great price to boot.

Denver -7 (1.99)

League: 0-9-1 (Av. loss 13.5) as a 5+ dog, off a 4- SU loss as a 5+ dog, if total is 200+ and opp was last a 4- dog. [Nets]

League: 15-5-1 (Av. win 14.6) home 5+ fav, 0-1 days rest off a 10- ats loss as a 4- dog, if total is 190+, and opp last ts but lost SU. [Denv]

There's no common games there, so a combined 24-5-2 trend for Denver here...although I wouldn't take any higher than -7.
Despite some close games, NJ are 0-8 SU on the road v. the West this season...and the 3 close games have been against .500 or worse teams.
Denver lost today, but away at the team with the 4th best record in the NBA, and they kept with Utah the whole way...at home v. a below .500 Eastern team who arte without 2 legitimate starters really shouldn't prove to be too much of a hurdle for a full strength Denver to overcome.

Clippers -6

League: 13-3-1 (16-1 this no...av. win 15.2) home 5+ fav, off an ats loss but SU win as a 5+ fav, if opp is off a 4- SU loss as a 4- dog. [LAC]
8-1 (9-0 this no...av. win 17.2!!) if total is 190+

League: 8-15-1 (Av. loss 8.5) away 5+ dog, no rest off a 4- SU loss as away 4- dog. [Min]
3-11 (Av. loss 8.6) if opp is off any ats loss.

Sticking with a poor Seattle team is one thing, backing it up on the road against a team who allows just 44.4% shooting at home is another.
The Clips are starting to put together some good form, winning 6 of their last 8...inc. a 92-91 win AT Minni.
Statistically at least, Minni are a 2.2 point worse team on the road, and the Clips are a 4 point better team at home.
I think Minni will find it very tough to bounce back from a tough game today and could get easily blown out by the improving Clips.

[ShaqSpear]

Untill 5 february I will not writte anymore match analyses as I do not have enough time with all the exams going on. So, I will just post my tips like I did yesterday. Also I will start holding a budget which I will publish later on tonight. GL!!!

[ShaqSpear]

BALANCE: +12.39
W/T: 10/18
winning prct.: 55.56%

[ShaqSpear]

28 Jan 03:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - H-1(+6.5) - Betfair - 1.95---------------10/10
28 Jan 03:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - 1 - Betfair - 3.5------------------------5/10
28 Jan 02:00 - PHI 76ers v ATL Hawks - H-2(-4.5) - Betfair - 1.98-------------6/10
28 Jan 02:00 - TOR Raptors v IND Pacers - H-1(+6.0) - Expekt - 1.92------10/10
28 Jan 02:00 - TOR Raptors v IND Pacers - 1 - Betfair - 3.35--------------------6/10
28 Jan 03:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies H-1(+3.5) - Bet365 - 1.95-10/10
28 Jan 03:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies - 1 - Betfair - 2.5-----------8/10
28 Jan 05:30 - MIN Timberwolves v LA Clippers - H-1(+6.5) - Betfair - 2-----8/10
28 Jan 02:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies - under 211.5 - GB - 1.91----7/10
28 Jan 01:00 - PHI 76ers v ATL Hawks - over186.5 - Betfair - 1.95------------9/10
28 Jan 02:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - over 192 - 10Bet - 1.93-------------------9/10
28 Jan 04:30 - MIN Timberwolves v LA Clippers - under 193.5 - GB - 1.91---6/10
28 Jan 03:00 - NJ Nets v DEN Nuggets - under 210.5 - GB - 1.91--------------5/10

[Donald_Duck]

for tonight I like:
Under on Dallas
Over on Bulls
Atlanta -4.5
Toronto +6

GL everybody !

[TazaD]

Strange day...really didn't expect to lose both the Clips and Denver, figured a 1-1 there at worst...

...oh well, thanks to some late fouling in Chicago it's not all bad.

Pretty up and down day for most by the looks.

[ShaqSpear]

28 Jan 03:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - H-1(+6.5) - Betfair - 1.95---------------10/10
28 Jan 03:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - 1 - Betfair - 3.5------------------------5/10
28 Jan 02:00 - PHI 76ers v ATL Hawks - H-2(-4.5) - Betfair - 1.98-------------6/10
28 Jan 02:00 - TOR Raptors v IND Pacers - H-1(+6.0) - Expekt - 1.92------10/10
28 Jan 02:00 - TOR Raptors v IND Pacers - 1 - Betfair - 3.35--------------------6/10
28 Jan 03:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies H-1(+3.5) - Bet365 - 1.95-10/10
28 Jan 03:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies - 1 - Betfair - 2.5-----------8/10
28 Jan 05:30 - MIN Timberwolves v LA Clippers - H-1(+6.5) - Betfair - 2-----8/10
28 Jan 02:00 - POR Trailblazers v MEM Grizzlies - under 211.5 - GB - 1.91----7/10
28 Jan 01:00 - PHI 76ers v ATL Hawks - over186.5 - Betfair - 1.95------------9/10
28 Jan 02:30 - MIA Heat v CHI Bulls - over 192 - 10Bet - 1.93-------------------9/10
28 Jan 04:30 - MIN Timberwolves v LA Clippers - under 193.5 - GB - 1.91---6/10
28 Jan 03:00 - NJ Nets v DEN Nuggets - under 210.5 - GB - 1.91--------------5/10

[ShaqSpear]

BALANCE: 12.39+19.38= 31.77
W/T: 17/31
winning prct.: 54.84%